Trump approval ratings thread, 1.4

[BlueSwan]

Another key state:

Wisconsin: Marquette U., Jan. 16-20, 800 RV (change from Oct.)

Approve 44 (-3)
Disapprove 52 (+2)

Vote to re-elect Trump or vote for someone else?

Definitely Trump 27
Probably Trump 12
Probably someone else 8
Definitely someone else 49

Net: Trump 39, someone else 57

Results

Definitely someone else at 49% is very encouraging. Tough to turn around numbers like that.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

A state that could well matter in 2020, one that Trump really must win.

Florida, Mason-Dixon: 47-50 approval vs. disapproval.

Re-elect 45%. Replace 46%. Not sure 9%.

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000168-7cef-de11-af7d-feff7b080001

Trump approval:

With cumulative electoral vote totals in each category.

55% and higher
50-54%
49% or less and positive
tie (white)
44-49% and negative 80
40-43% 13
under 40%  43

An asterisk will be applied to any state in which the President's approval rating is above 43% for which the disapproval rating is 50% or higher.

No segregation of districts in Maine and Nebraska -- yet.

40 more states, and 409 electoral votes to go!

Trump is only down in 3 in FL, while down 20 nationally. FL is a pretty deplorable state.

[ProudModerate2]

A state that could well matter in 2020, one that Trump really must win.

Florida, Mason-Dixon: 47-50 approval vs. disapproval.

Re-elect 45%. Replace 46%. Not sure 9%.

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000168-7cef-de11-af7d-feff7b080001

Trump approval:

With cumulative electoral vote totals in each category.

55% and higher
50-54%
49% or less and positive
tie (white)
44-49% and negative 80
40-43% 13
under 40%  43

An asterisk will be applied to any state in which the President's approval rating is above 43% for which the disapproval rating is 50% or higher.

No segregation of districts in Maine and Nebraska -- yet.

40 more states, and 409 electoral votes to go!

Trump is only down in 3 in FL, while down 20 nationally. FL is a pretty deplorable state.

[Zaybay]

A state that could well matter in 2020, one that Trump really must win.

Florida, Mason-Dixon: 47-50 approval vs. disapproval.

Re-elect 45%. Replace 46%. Not sure 9%.

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000168-7cef-de11-af7d-feff7b080001

Trump approval:

With cumulative electoral vote totals in each category.

55% and higher
50-54%
49% or less and positive
tie (white)
44-49% and negative 80
40-43% 13
under 40%  43

An asterisk will be applied to any state in which the President's approval rating is above 43% for which the disapproval rating is 50% or higher.

No segregation of districts in Maine and Nebraska -- yet.

40 more states, and 409 electoral votes to go!

Trump is only down in 3 in FL, while down 20 nationally. FL is a pretty deplorable state.

Makes sense, its a heavily divided state with very few swing voters. When Obama was at his lowest point, FL was only -4 for him.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Another key state:

Wisconsin: Marquette U., Jan. 16-20, 800 RV (change from Oct.)

Approve 44 (-3)
Disapprove 52 (+2)

Vote to re-elect Trump or vote for someone else?

Definitely Trump 27
Probably Trump 12
Probably someone else 8
Definitely someone else 49

Net: Trump 39, someone else 57

Results

Definitely someone else at 49% is very encouraging. Tough to turn around numbers like that.

Considering that Trump got a lower % than Bush did while losing the state both times in 2000/2004, and he got less raw votes than Romney who lost the state by 7%, it was always unlikely to vote for him again. But of course it's going to be a 100% tossup because muh 2016.

[pbrower2a]

Another key state:

Another key state:

Wisconsin: Marquette U., Jan. 16-20, 800 RV (change from Oct.)

Approve 44 (-3)
Disapprove 52 (+2)

Vote to re-elect Trump or vote for someone else?

Definitely Trump 27
Probably Trump 12
Probably someone else 8
Definitely someone else 49

Net: Trump 39, someone else 57

Results

Definitely someone else at 49% is very encouraging. Tough to turn around numbers like that.

Considering that Trump got a lower % than Bush did while losing the state both times in 2000/2004, and he got less raw votes than Romney who lost the state by 7%, it was always unlikely to vote for him again. But of course it's going to be a 100% tossup because muh 2016.

Wisconsin has seemed like the tipping point for 2020 since Election Night 2016, and if only 39% of the people now intend to vote for Trump with just over 21 months to go... there's a better chance of a World Series between the Detroit Kittens and the Miami Minnows in 2020 than that Trump wins re-election in 2020.

A Colorado poll had only 36% of state voters admitting that they would vote for Trump.  I may want to create a map suggesting how willing people are to vote for Trump. I have had 100-DIS  as a Trump ceiling in the event that he should be an effective fund-raiser and campaigner and have a good electoral machine behind him. He would have to be as good at such as "Mister Unmentionable" at such to get re-elected.

Yes, we are accustomed to seeing Presidents re-elected, but it now looks as if Obama will be the last such President to be re-elected until at least 2024.

I have a huge span in pink coloration because in theory anyone who has at least 43% approval in a state has a chance of winning that state. I now have 90 of 138 electoral votes already in that category. Trump will win if he picks up everything in pink, but he must really pick up everything. I thought that the asterisk would separate states with something like 46-48  from a state with 44-52 like Wisconsin, "46-48" suggesting that if most things go right for Trump, he wins the state.  Ignoring Iowa, which is going to vote with Wisconsin, and Alaska as too small to matter and a seeming outlier, I see five coin tosses. If it comes down to five simple coin tosses as 50% chances (which is probably an overestimation of Trump chances), then Trump has one chance in winning re-election if you hand him everything that he won by more than 3% that is not yet on this map, then he has one chance in 32 of winning re-election.  And that is an exaggeration of his chances... on the high side!        

Trump approval:

With cumulative electoral vote totals in each category.

55% and higher
50-54%
49% or less and positive
tie (white)
44-49% and negative 90
40-43% 13
under 40%  43

An asterisk will be applied to any state in which the President's approval rating is above 43% for which the disapproval rating is 50% or higher.

No segregation of districts in Maine and Nebraska -- yet.
39 more states, and 399 electoral votes to go!

[Statilius the Epicurean]

I wouldn't get too excited tbh. These approval numbers are 1) during a shutdown, where Trump is flailing around and screwing up while pursuing a high-salience unpopular policy, and 2) it's more than a year and a half away from the election. If it's Jan 2020 and Trump is still stuck at 40 then I'd be worried for him, but as it is my default assumption is that it will go like the 2013 shutdown where Congressional Republicans were destroyed in the polls for a month and then everyone forgot about it (and they won a landslide midterm a year later).

[forgotten manatee]

Another key state:

Wisconsin: Marquette U., Jan. 16-20, 800 RV (change from Oct.)

Approve 44 (-3)
Disapprove 52 (+2)

Vote to re-elect Trump or vote for someone else?

Definitely Trump 27
Probably Trump 12
Probably someone else 8
Definitely someone else 49

Net: Trump 39, someone else 57

Results

Definitely someone else at 49% is very encouraging. Tough to turn around numbers like that.

Considering that Trump got a lower % than Bush did while losing the state both times in 2000/2004, and he got less raw votes than Romney who lost the state by 7%, it was always unlikely to vote for him again. But of course it's going to be a 100% tossup because muh 2016.

What is a raw vote? Asking for a friend.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

What is a raw vote? Asking for a friend.

The actual number of votes if you literally just count the votes. i.e. Trump got 1,405,284 raw votes in WI in 2016.

[Progressive Pessimist]

A state that could well matter in 2020, one that Trump really must win.

Florida, Mason-Dixon: 47-50 approval vs. disapproval.

Re-elect 45%. Replace 46%. Not sure 9%.

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000168-7cef-de11-af7d-feff7b080001

Trump approval:

With cumulative electoral vote totals in each category.

55% and higher
50-54%
49% or less and positive
tie (white)
44-49% and negative 80
40-43% 13
under 40%  43

An asterisk will be applied to any state in which the President's approval rating is above 43% for which the disapproval rating is 50% or higher.

No segregation of districts in Maine and Nebraska -- yet.

40 more states, and 409 electoral votes to go!

Trump is only down in 3 in FL, while down 20 nationally. FL is a pretty deplorable state.

My favorite gif ever!

[pbrower2a]

I wouldn't get too excited tbh. These approval numbers are 1) during a shutdown, where Trump is flailing around and screwing up while pursuing a high-salience unpopular policy, and 2) it's more than a year and a half away from the election. If it's Jan 2020 and Trump is still stuck at 40 then I'd be worried for him, but as it is my default assumption is that it will go like the 2013 shutdown where Congressional Republicans were destroyed in the polls for a month and then everyone forgot about it (and they won a landslide midterm a year later).

You have a point. The partial government shutdown could be the low point from which President Trump recovers some. But how much?

How short are memories?

But let's also consider the effects of any coincidences that might arise. Should some calamity happen that is associated with this shutdown, then the President is in deep doo-doo.

It is arguable that a shutdown demonstrates more the weakness President (Obama) or capriciousness (Trump) of the President. Obama's weakness was that the moneyed elites were right behind him -- with a political dagger. They got what they wanted because they would lavish money on anyone who believes that no human suffering can ever be in excess so long as it turns a profit. (Am I cynical about that? You bet! I see our economic elites no more moral than the sorts of people who ruled Russia in the first decade of the twentieth century -- they are only more competent and ruthless).  In 2019 a shutdown might start causing Americans to see what they have in common with government employees.

It is easy to recognize that the last shutdown hurt a President who did not want a shutdown but got one anyway. This President bet nearly everything on the federal shutdown; History will show whether he made a bad bet. History will show itself on November 3, 2020. The night could be the slowest night in American history.

[pbrower2a]

As I have suggested I would do, I am looking at a floor for the President: the percentage of people who see themselves likely to vote for him in 2020.

Criteria are any of the following questions:

1. Does the president deserve or not deserve to be re-elected?

2. Do you intend to vote to re-elect the President or vote for someone else?

3. (in binary choices between the President and at least four possible Democratic nominees), what is the best that the President does against a non-joke Democratic nominee?

I may have apples-and-oranges criteria here much like the difference  between approval and favorability or either of 'adults' 'likely voters' or 'registered voters'.

Glengariff, Michigan

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The "46" is very generous for Trump, assuming that the Democrats elect someone below the usual standard of political excellence, which implies that the Democrat in question makes a difference -- but not enough to hand the state to Trump.

Even worse, Trump loses badly to four presumed Democratic nominees:

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https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2019/01/29/poll-trump-shutdown-border-wall/2699791002/

I'm going with the #2 question for Trump, which is generous -- toward the President's chances.

Without electoral votes and with no distinction for districts:

Vote for the President:

under 40%
40-44%
45-47%
48 or 49% (white -- he can win a nail-biter!)
50%
51-54%
55% or higher

Basically: the questions about Florida and Wisconsin are practically the same -- question #2.
In North Carolina, Trump cannot get above 46% against anyone. I am not going to give President Trump credit for being better known than the Democrat.

Some matchups in Ohio showed Trump agaqinst Democrats. He was behind Biden (Sherrod) Brown, Sanders, and H. Clinton (!) -- but he did reach 49 against Warren, so I go with a '49' in Ohio. That was a favorability poll about the President, and not approval, so I made nothing of it then.

The polls of North Carolina and Ohio were by PPP.  Trump will need more than 46% of the popular vote in North Carolina, but 49% is often enough to win. 50% +1 definitively wins in any state.

A poll in Colorado had Trump down 36 (should he be re-elected?) to 50 (he should not). That seems to have been sponsored by a union, which I would ordinarily reject as a special interest.    

I am not going to make anything of Trump being ahead of someone not well known. He is as well known as anyone will ever get. If he cannot crack 46% in a state against anyone he is not going to get re-elected in that state.

Now here is how I would ask the question for a poll:

In a three -way race between Donald Trump, whoever the Democrats nominate for President, or a conservative alternative to Donald Trump, how will you vote?

A poll in Ohio might have the alternatives:

Donald Trump, who is now President
John Kasich, former Governor of Ohio
practically any Democrat


So far I have only five states -- but I have a telling  assortment.



 

[GeorgiaModerate]

Zogby, Jan. 18-20, 893 likely voters (change from Nov.)

Approve 41 (-5)
Disapprove 56 (+4)

Strongly approve 23
Strongly disapprove 46

[GeorgiaModerate]

(Edited to include RV numbers and udpated link)

ABC/WaPo, Jan. 21-24, 1001 adults including 893 RV (change from Nov.)

Adults:

Approve 37 (-3)
Disapprove 58 (+5)

Strongly approve 28 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 49 (+6)

RV:

Approve 38 (-4)
Disapprove 58 (+6)

Strongly approve 29 (-4)
Strongly disapprove 50 (+6)

[henster]

Zogby, Jan. 18-20, 893 likely voters (change from Nov.)

Approve 41 (-5)
Disapprove 56 (+4)

Strongly approve 23
Strongly disapprove 46

This is a BFD.

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[GeorgiaModerate]

GQR/Democracy Corps, Jan. 12-17, 1000 RV (change from Nov.)

Approve 42 (-2)
Disapprove 55 (+4)

2020:

Democrat 51
Trump 41
3rd party (volunteered) 5

[Dr. Arch]

This whole wall hostage stunt poisoned his already horrific numbers. We can only hope they stay there or go lower as he continues to threaten to continue doing the same thing.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

This whole wall hostage stunt poisoned his already horrific numbers. We can only hope they stay there or go lower as he continues to threaten to continue doing the same thing.

I am almost sad that the shutdown will be over, at least temporarily.

Almost.

[pbrower2a]

Have we ever seen so failed a President so quickly?

Maybe Lincoln was heavily reviled in among slave-owners, but -- the Emancipation Proclamation was already in effect, and the Union Armed Forces had liberated Arkansas Post, Arkansas -- and were closing in on Vicksburg by this time in 1863. American troops were in Tunisia and closing in on the combined German and Italian armed forces in a shriveling pocket of Axis control in Africa as the British were closing in from Libya while American trucks shipped to the Soviet Union were doing their small role (compared to the Red Army) in closing the Stalingrad pocket.  With this I consider FDR having for all practical purposes two Presidencies, the peacetime Presidency of his first two terms and the wartime Presidency  analogous to that of Lincoln.

OK, it isn't fair to compare Trump to Lincoln or FDR. He could hardly be less similar to either.

Let's try the President  that President Trump finds odious -- Obama. Obama's biggest fault as President is that Trump is his successor. Obamacare isn't without its faults, but it is still here. Putting an end to the most dangerous economic meltdown since the Great Depression is an unqualified achievement, as is whacking the worst terrorist in inhuman history. Of course Obama was extremely by Trump standards -- of having associates trapped in scandals, or of having ties to organized crime. Hey, conservatives -- your next effective President will be much more like Obama than like Trump.

Ike had negotiated a cease-fire in Korea and Nixon was in peace talks about Vietnam. The Watergate scandals had yet to erupt.  

Reagan took some early hits for scaling back the expectations of many people, particularly young adults who were expected to sell out their dreams to undo the stagflation. That means that people end up with fewer opportunities to achieve their dreams and must settle for being good (cheap) help. So if you despise the job in a shopping mall far beneath your aspirations that is much less than a living, take a second such job! Like many who had to accept such a solution, I hated my life and deferred many dreams. But America got some unusually-good workers in menial jobs and did much well.

Reagan effectively put an end to stagflation. Trump is more likely to re-introduce it. Reagan got re-elected -- oh, did he get re-elected!

The elder Bush was getting praise for his handling of foreign policy as Commie regimes collapsed, Manuel Noriega was arrested as a drug trafficker, and Saddam Hussein was driven out of Kuwait. Trump's foreign policy is a near-mirror image... of failure.        
 

[forgotten manatee]

So.. Trump just lost in a rout on his signature issue, the Wall, though his supposed signature strength, the negotiation. And not only was it a rout, it was the most highly visible political standoff of the last 25 years. I have a feeling we may see a break in the blind loyalty of his base, one that will be reflected in his approval numbers. Does anyone else agree?

[Alabama_Indy10]

So.. Trump just lost in a rout on his signature issue, the Wall, though his supposed signature strength, the negotiation. And not only was it a rout, it was the most highly visible political standoff of the last 25 years. I have a feeling we may see a break in the blind loyalty of his base, one that will be reflected in his approval numbers. Does anyone else agree?

He's just going to declare a national emergency when they don't reach a deal after this 3 week period. If they leave (which I don't believe they will), the base will be right back with him when he does this.

[Crumpets]

RCP has of course not included the AP poll in their average.

[Thatkat04]

So.. Trump just lost in a rout on his signature issue, the Wall, though his supposed signature strength, the negotiation. And not only was it a rout, it was the most highly visible political standoff of the last 25 years. I have a feeling we may see a break in the blind loyalty of his base, one that will be reflected in his approval numbers. Does anyone else agree?

He's just going to declare a national emergency when they don't reach a deal after this 3 week period. If they leave (which I don't believe they will), the base will be right back with him when he does this.

The base never left.

[Alabama_Indy10]

So.. Trump just lost in a rout on his signature issue, the Wall, though his supposed signature strength, the negotiation. And not only was it a rout, it was the most highly visible political standoff of the last 25 years. I have a feeling we may see a break in the blind loyalty of his base, one that will be reflected in his approval numbers. Does anyone else agree?

He's just going to declare a national emergency when they don't reach a deal after this 3 week period. If they leave (which I don't believe they will), the base will be right back with him when he does this.

The base never left.

I agree

[GeorgiaModerate]

So.. Trump just lost in a rout on his signature issue, the Wall, though his supposed signature strength, the negotiation. And not only was it a rout, it was the most highly visible political standoff of the last 25 years. I have a feeling we may see a break in the blind loyalty of his base, one that will be reflected in his approval numbers. Does anyone else agree?

After the failure to repeal ACA, Trump's approval among his base took a hit, and this was reflected in his overall numbers.  But it was only temporary; after all, where else does his base have to go?  I suspect the same thing may happen this time, i.e. his overall numbers will drop a bit further, and then bounce back.

However, I think they'll bounce back only to around the current level rather than pre-shutdown levels.  A common trend in many of the recent polls is that Trump's approval has decreased less than his disapproval has increased.  I interpret this as many fence-sitters and soft Trump supporters being driven into the disapproval camp.  It will be much harder for Trump to move them back again than it will be for him to recover temporary defections from his base.