Trump approval ratings thread, 1.4

[pbrower2a]

So.. Trump just lost in a rout on his signature issue, the Wall, though his supposed signature strength, the negotiation. And not only was it a rout, it was the most highly visible political standoff of the last 25 years. I have a feeling we may see a break in the blind loyalty of his base, one that will be reflected in his approval numbers. Does anyone else agree?

He's just going to declare a national emergency when they don't reach a deal after this 3 week period. If they leave (which I don't believe they will), the base will be right back with him when he does this.

The base never left.

There is a base of about 35% of the population who either will accept whatever a President does or of those who will never accept him. Blind admiration and blind rejection are part of the political reality involving any President.

Trump looks as if he will not get the whole of the conservative vote, and he will need it in 2020 to get re-elected. The question is now not so much whether some conservative will get about 6% of the popular vote as a conservative alternative to Trump but instead who it will be.

Most conservatives are patriots who distrust an American toady to a dictatorial regime in Russia.

[BlueSwan]

I have a feeling we may see a break in the blind loyalty of his base, one that will be reflected in his approval numbers. Does anyone else agree?

I don't think the base is going anywhere. The people abandoning Trump are the soft supporters who probably never liked Trump much to begin with.

[Crumpets]

I have a feeling we may see a break in the blind loyalty of his base, one that will be reflected in his approval numbers. Does anyone else agree?

I don't think the base is going anywhere. The people abandoning Trump are the soft supporters who probably never liked Trump much to begin with.

They liked him enough to hold their nose and vote against Hillary, though. Question is how much they dislike Warren/Harris/Sanders/Gillibrand in comparison.

[pbrower2a]

They will be less likely to hold their nose and vote against someone like McMullen, Kasich, or some other conservative than to vote for a liberal Democrat. They might expect to lose, but with such knowledge they might also be willing to teach both parties a lesson in 2020.

[GeorgiaModerate]

NBC/WSJ, Jan. 20-23, 900 adults (1-month change)

Approve 43 (nc)
Disapprove 54 (nc)

Strongly approve 29 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 47 (+3)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico, Jan. 24-25, 1168 adults

This is a snap poll and not their regular weekly tracker of registered voters.

Approve 37
Disapprove 56

Strongly approve 18
Strongly disapprove 43

[pbrower2a]

So.. Trump just lost in a rout on his signature issue, the Wall, though his supposed signature strength, the negotiation. And not only was it a rout, it was the most highly visible political standoff of the last 25 years. I have a feeling we may see a break in the blind loyalty of his base, one that will be reflected in his approval numbers. Does anyone else agree?

His base will not abandon him. It is full o9f resentment toward minorities and educated people. He shows no sign of changing.

[Progressive Pessimist]

His soft supporters are actually worse than his base. They're the ones that helped him win, and they're the ones who enable him and normalize him. I hope they've learned and received a serious case of buyer's remorse.

[Fuzzy Bear]

If this were any other Republican, or any Democrat, I would say that such a pol was in significant trouble.  If I were an adviser to such a President, I'd be telling him/her of the need to "be Presidential" to pump up the approval ratings by doing some "Presidential" sort of thing or another that would use the advantage of incumbency wisely.  That's not how Trump works.  Trump's skill is to getting other people's approval rating lower than his.

Trump is able to do this because whatever Trump may be, he is not self-righteous.  Grandiose, sometimes.  Narcissistic, yes.  But he's not self-righteous, and people do find that aspect of him refreshing.  So when he calls Warren "Pocahontas", or Cruz "Lyin' Ted", he gets away with this because these folks' self-righteousness annoys people.  Trump cuts their self-aggrandizing down to size, and people like it, even when they don't truly realize that this is what Trump is doing. 

Trump does this more masterfully than any politician I've seen in my lifetime.  Trump is somewhere between 5-10 points less underwater than he appears because of this factor.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Trump's skill is to getting other people's raising Nancy Pelosi's approval rating lower higher than his.

[BlueSwan]

If this were any other Republican, or any Democrat, I would say that such a pol was in significant trouble.  If I were an adviser to such a President, I'd be telling him/her of the need to "be Presidential" to pump up the approval ratings by doing some "Presidential" sort of thing or another that would use the advantage of incumbency wisely.  That's not how Trump works.  Trump's skill is to getting other people's approval rating lower than his.

Trump is able to do this because whatever Trump may be, he is not self-righteous.  Grandiose, sometimes.  Narcissistic, yes.  But he's not self-righteous, and people do find that aspect of him refreshing.  So when he calls Warren "Pocahontas", or Cruz "Lyin' Ted", he gets away with this because these folks' self-righteousness annoys people.  Trump cuts their self-aggrandizing down to size, and people like it, even when they don't truly realize that this is what Trump is doing. 

Trump does this more masterfully than any politician I've seen in my lifetime.  Trump is somewhere between 5-10 points less underwater than he appears because of this factor.

I tend to agree with this.

[pbrower2a]

If this were any other Republican, or any Democrat, I would say that such a pol was in significant trouble.  If I were an adviser to such a President, I'd be telling him/her of the need to "be Presidential" to pump up the approval ratings by doing some "Presidential" sort of thing or another that would use the advantage of incumbency wisely.  That's not how Trump works.  Trump's skill is to getting other people's approval rating lower than his.

So President Trump succeeds by failing, much unlike other failures in politics who simply and purely fail as one would expect. But worse, if he were to succeed at this, then he would so debase the political process that our government would be vulnerable to coups. It is far better that we Americans take our lumps, even if such includes another Great Depression, than that we should enter the septic tank of failed states.
  

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Trump is not playing ten-moves-ahead chess, setting up traps for his opponents.

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So the polls are wrong. No way! If so, then everything that anyone believes about polling is completely wrong, and polls are completely worthless.  Trump is doing far worse than Obama at this stage, as show the polls.

[Brittain33]

I don't see how one can claim Trump isn't self-righteous when one of the way he attacks people is to say they should be ashamed of themselves. Trump said Tlaib's vulgar comments about impeaching him were "disgraceful" and "disrespectful."

[GeorgiaModerate]

Utah: Salt Lake Tribune, Jan. 15-24, 604 adults

Approve 48
Disapprove 49

Strongly approve 24
Strongly disapprove 38

[GeorgiaModerate]

New Hampshire: NH Journal, Jan. 16-21, 593 RV

Approve 36
Disapprove 58

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Utah: Salt Lake Tribune, Jan. 15-24, 604 adults

Approve 48
Disapprove 49

Strongly approve 24
Strongly disapprove 38

Delicious.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Utah: Salt Lake Tribune, Jan. 15-24, 604 adults

Approve 48
Disapprove 49

Strongly approve 24
Strongly disapprove 38

utah tossup confirme?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Monmouth, Jan. 25-27, 805 adults including 735 RV (change from Nov.)

Adults:

Approve 41 (-2)
Disapprove 54 (+5)

RV:

Approve 43 (-1)
Disapprove 53 (+4)

[redjohn]

Utah: Salt Lake Tribune, Jan. 15-24, 604 adults

Approve 48
Disapprove 49

Strongly approve 24
Strongly disapprove 38

utah tossup confirme?

Very, very unlikely. Trump got 45% of the vote there four years ago and still no challenger came within 18 points; he's actually improved his numbers there and will win the state unless a meteor strikes Utah.

[Tintrlvr]

Utah: Salt Lake Tribune, Jan. 15-24, 604 adults

Approve 48
Disapprove 49

Strongly approve 24
Strongly disapprove 38

utah tossup confirme?

Nah, just means McMullin or an equivalent candidate will get double-digits again there while being irrelevant everywhere else.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Utah: Salt Lake Tribune, Jan. 15-24, 604 adults

Approve 48
Disapprove 49

Strongly approve 24
Strongly disapprove 38

utah tossup confirme?

Very, very unlikely. Trump got 45% of the vote there four years ago and still no challenger came within 18 points; he's actually improved his numbers there and will win the state unless a meteor strikes Utah.

you realize its sarcastic right

[pbrower2a]

New Hampshire: NH Journal, Jan. 16-21, 593 RV

Approve 36
Disapprove 58

Utah: Salt Lake Tribune, Jan. 15-24, 604 adults

Approve 48
Disapprove 49

Strongly approve 24
Strongly disapprove 38

Trump approval:

With cumulative electoral vote totals in each category.

55% and higher
50-54%
49% or less and positive
tie (white)
44-49% and negative 82
40-43% 13
under 40%  47

An asterisk will be applied to any state in which the President's approval rating is above 43% for which the disapproval rating is 50% or higher.

No segregation of districts in Maine and Nebraska -- yet.

38 more states, and 401 electoral votes to go!

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1090242685129183235

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1090242685129183235

Generic Not-Trump numbers =/= actual Dem challenger numbers. C'mon, let's not be dense here.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1090242685129183235

Generic Not-Trump numbers =/= actual Dem challenger numbers. C'mon, let's not be dense here.

That's true.  But this is an important point:

https://twitter.com/nickgourevitch/status/1090246308500307969

Let's not forget that Trump essentially drew an inside straight to eke out a win in 2016.  If he loses ground anywhere, he's toast.