Trump approval ratings thread, 1.4

[twenty42]

Trump back to the low to mid 40s via RCP, rebounding from the hit he took with Cohen/Manafort.

LOL nothing can bring Trump down. He always bouncing right back. MSM will surely wash, rinse, repeat, though....SAD.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

Why are conservatives so stupid?

Why do liberals revert to personal attacks when confronted with facts?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Trump back to the low to mid 40s via RCP, rebounding from the hit he took with Cohen/Manafort.

LOL nothing can bring Trump down. He always bouncing right back. MSM will surely wash, rinse, repeat, though....SAD.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

Why are conservatives so stupid?

Why do liberals revert to personal attacks when confronted with facts?

Go to bed, Ben Shapiro.

[twenty42]

Trump back to the low to mid 40s via RCP, rebounding from the hit he took with Cohen/Manafort.

LOL nothing can bring Trump down. He always bouncing right back. MSM will surely wash, rinse, repeat, though....SAD.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

Why are conservatives so stupid?

Why do liberals revert to personal attacks when confronted with facts?

Go to bed, Ben Shapiro.

This attitude is exactly why you lost in 2016.

[IceSpear]

Trump back to the low to mid 40s via RCP, rebounding from the hit he took with Cohen/Manafort.

LOL nothing can bring Trump down. He always bouncing right back. MSM will surely wash, rinse, repeat, though....SAD.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

Why are conservatives so stupid?

Why do liberals revert to personal attacks when confronted with facts?

Go to bed, Ben Shapiro.

This attitude is exactly why you lost in 2016.

A poster named PittsburghSteel's attitude on US Election Atlas Dot Org made the FBI director interfere in the last week of the election?

Anyway, like I said earlier, of course the Manafort/Cohen bump was not going to be permanent. I knew Americans would forget and/or stop caring in a few weeks just like they do with everything. It's a very predictable pattern at this point.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

lmao @ conservatives cheering on the fact that in only the most favorable of news cycles, he's able to touch the same numbers he started with

newsflash: Trump hasn't expanded his base at all, and the attrition due to these fossils dying out (by natural causes or by inhaling toxic fumes from burning their Nikes) will be enough to carry a generic non-Hillary Dem over the finish line, in the best case scenario for you where literally everyone votes exactly the same

[IceSpear]

lmao @ conservatives cheering on the fact that in only the most favorable of news cycles, he's able to touch the same numbers he started with

newsflash: Trump hasn't expanded his base at all, and the attrition due to these fossils dying out (by natural causes or by inhaling toxic fumes from burning their Nikes) will be enough to carry a generic non-Hillary Dem over the finish line, in the best case scenario for you where literally everyone votes exactly the same

True, Trump is in deep trouble if he can't find a way to expand his base. But by that same token, can we stop the circlejerking about <insert whatever Democrat here> winning a 400+ EV double digit PV landslide in 2020 every time he takes a dip in the polls?

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

lmao @ conservatives cheering on the fact that in only the most favorable of news cycles, he's able to touch the same numbers he started with

newsflash: Trump hasn't expanded his base at all, and the attrition due to these fossils dying out (by natural causes or by inhaling toxic fumes from burning their Nikes) will be enough to carry a generic non-Hillary Dem over the finish line, in the best case scenario for you where literally everyone votes exactly the same

True, Trump is in deep trouble if he can't find a way to expand his base. But by that same token, can we stop the circlejerking about <insert whatever Democrat here> winning a 400+ EV double digit PV landslide in 2020 every time he takes a dip in the polls?

I think chasing after poll fluctuations two years in advance is pretty silly, yes.

[IceSpear]

This poll has Trump at 56-39 in Oklahoma, which seems...oddly low.

http://www.therightstrategygroup.com/september-26-2018-survey.html

[YE]

This poll has Trump at 56-39 in Oklahoma, which seems...oddly low.

http://www.therightstrategygroup.com/september-26-2018-survey.html

As someone who goes to school in Norman, I can’t say Trump is popular here on campus from the people I run into with some exceptions.

[BlueSwan]

This poll has Trump at 56-39 in Oklahoma, which seems...oddly low.

http://www.therightstrategygroup.com/september-26-2018-survey.html

As someone who goes to school in Norman, I can’t say Trump is popular here on campus from the people I run into with some exceptions.

Key word there is "campus". Trump is not popular amongst people with more than half a brain.

[GeorgiaModerate]

This poll has Trump at 56-39 in Oklahoma, which seems...oddly low.

http://www.therightstrategygroup.com/september-26-2018-survey.html

Not really.   The Morning Consult 50-state tracker (last updated in August) had Trump at 53/44 in OK, down from 61/27 in January 2017.

https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/

[Person Man]

This poll has Trump at 56-39 in Oklahoma, which seems...oddly low.

http://www.therightstrategygroup.com/september-26-2018-survey.html

Not really.   The Morning Consult 50-state tracker (last updated in August) had Trump at 53/44 in OK, down from 61/27 in January 2017.

https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/

So it collaborates a story that Tfump has regressed to the mean....

[pbrower2a]

This poll has Trump at 56-39 in Oklahoma, which seems...oddly low.

http://www.therightstrategygroup.com/september-26-2018-survey.html

Not really.   The Morning Consult 50-state tracker (last updated in August) had Trump at 53/44 in OK, down from 61/27 in January 2017.

https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/

So it collaborates a story that Trump has regressed to the mean....

It also suggests that Donald Trump has lost 8% in approval rating in Oklahoma over twenty months, which looks like a fall from getting 46% of the popular vote to having a nationwide approval rating around 38%. Americans are disappointed as a whole, and enough to believe that they want some sort of change in 2020. Things have gone from hoping for the best to guarding against the worst.

I'm not saying that Oklahoma would vote for any Democrat for President in 2020, but I have seen patterns that suggest that an Obama-like pol would win a Reagan-like win against Trump. Iowa is much closer to the national mean in its political orientation, and favorability for Obama is at 58% and is at 38% for Trump. Oh, so favorability is not the same as approval, as I have said? favorability for Trump is close to approval for him, so it looks like a valid comparison. It is hard to imagine any Democratic nominee for President losing to Trump in Iowa, a state that Trump won by 9% in 2016.   

I got to see Corey Booker grill Bret Kavanaugh with a discourse upon the legal process and its importance, and show his recognition that the rule of law is a reasonable expectation of anyone irrespective of partisan affiliation. That suggests Obama. 

Donald Trump - Carter-scale failure as President for very-different, and more disgusting, reasons.

   

[twenty42]

lmao @ conservatives cheering on the fact that in only the most favorable of news cycles, he's able to touch the same numbers he started with

newsflash: Trump hasn't expanded his base at all, and the attrition due to these fossils dying out (by natural causes or by inhaling toxic fumes from burning their Nikes) will be enough to carry a generic non-Hillary Dem over the finish line, in the best case scenario for you where literally everyone votes exactly the same

True, Trump is in deep trouble if he can't find a way to expand his base. But by that same token, can we stop the circlejerking about <insert whatever Democrat here> winning a 400+ EV double digit PV landslide in 2020 every time he takes a dip in the polls?

This whole thread is a contradictory circle jerk. It is filled with liberals talking about how meaningless a one-point uptick in Trump's approval ratings is, while at the same time creaming over every one-point dip.

[Badger]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/new-polls-democrats-in-decent-shape-across-the-frost-belt/

Take a look at the poll from Indiana. Trump disapproval is now over 50% in what is typically one of the toughest states for a Democrat to win. How tough? It has gone only twice for a Democratic nominee for President since 1936. It could be that the fast-growing suburbs of Indianapolis that used to be reliably Republican are no longer so reliably Republican (see also a pattern emerging in Arizona, Georgia, and Texas). It could also be that rural voters are beginning to see the harm from the trade war and the huge tax increase known as tariffs.

New Hampshire: ARG, Sep. 21-26, 897 adults (change from June)

Approve 40 (-4)
Disapprove 56 (+4)

D: 2/96
R: 64/33
Undeclared: 46/49

Here's how I rate the Frost Belt states, the states and DC mostly north of the Potomac and Ohio rivers and Iowa and Minnesota, for the Presidential election:

TOSS-UP    IN, ME-02, NE-02
TILT D  OH
LEAN D ME-AL, PA
SOLID D about everything else
SUPER-SOLID D  DC MA MD NY

Oklahoma, Right Strategies Group (whatever that is)

Trump approval 56%, disapproval 39%

http://www.therightstrategygroup.com/september-26-2018-survey.html

I would not be surprised if President Trump gets 61% of the vote in Oklahoma. I'm going on 100-DIS as the most likely electoral result for an incumbent on the assumption that the undecided usually drift toward the incumbent.  We get few polls of Oklahoma. Oklahoma was Trump's second-best state in 2016, winning 65-29 over Clinton.

 


  

55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 30
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 39
RI 30
VT 32

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue, but must be a lead of at least 3%)
50% or higher but positive, or a margin less than 3%, pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 33
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

*With the explicit question of whether the President should or should not be re-elected (AZ, FL, MI, MN, NH, OH, WI), or 100-DIS if such is all that is available:


Re-elect/do not re-elect if known; 100-DIS otherwise

100-DIS

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue (but must be a lead of at least 3%)
iess than 50% positive or a margin less than 3% pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red (or 55% do-not-reelect or higher)
40% to 44% medium red (or 50 to 54% do-not-reelect or higher)
under 40% deep red (or 50% or less do-not-reelect if do-not re-elect if do-not-reelect is higher than reelect)
Ties for elect and re-elect are also in white.

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
FL 37-54*
HI 36
MI 28-62*
NH 41-50* (perhaps as much as 41-57, depending upon interpretation)
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November 2017. The poll from Alabama is an  exit poll from the 2017 special election for a Senate seat.  

FWiw, flip Florida and South Carolina, add Nevada because it's pulling always underestimates Democrats and Trump is not going to flip it, and the medium red and better States is almost exactly what I predict as the end result in 2020 barring another Hillary ask unpopular Democrat is the nominee. Montana would be the one true toss-up state.

[Person Man]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/new-polls-democrats-in-decent-shape-across-the-frost-belt/

Take a look at the poll from Indiana. Trump disapproval is now over 50% in what is typically one of the toughest states for a Democrat to win. How tough? It has gone only twice for a Democratic nominee for President since 1936. It could be that the fast-growing suburbs of Indianapolis that used to be reliably Republican are no longer so reliably Republican (see also a pattern emerging in Arizona, Georgia, and Texas). It could also be that rural voters are beginning to see the harm from the trade war and the huge tax increase known as tariffs.

New Hampshire: ARG, Sep. 21-26, 897 adults (change from June)

Approve 40 (-4)
Disapprove 56 (+4)

D: 2/96
R: 64/33
Undeclared: 46/49

Here's how I rate the Frost Belt states, the states and DC mostly north of the Potomac and Ohio rivers and Iowa and Minnesota, for the Presidential election:

TOSS-UP    IN, ME-02, NE-02
TILT D  OH
LEAN D ME-AL, PA
SOLID D about everything else
SUPER-SOLID D  DC MA MD NY

Oklahoma, Right Strategies Group (whatever that is)

Trump approval 56%, disapproval 39%

http://www.therightstrategygroup.com/september-26-2018-survey.html

I would not be surprised if President Trump gets 61% of the vote in Oklahoma. I'm going on 100-DIS as the most likely electoral result for an incumbent on the assumption that the undecided usually drift toward the incumbent.  We get few polls of Oklahoma. Oklahoma was Trump's second-best state in 2016, winning 65-29 over Clinton.

 


  

55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 30
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 39
RI 30
VT 32

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue, but must be a lead of at least 3%)
50% or higher but positive, or a margin less than 3%, pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 33
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

*With the explicit question of whether the President should or should not be re-elected (AZ, FL, MI, MN, NH, OH, WI), or 100-DIS if such is all that is available:


Re-elect/do not re-elect if known; 100-DIS otherwise

100-DIS

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue (but must be a lead of at least 3%)
iess than 50% positive or a margin less than 3% pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red (or 55% do-not-reelect or higher)
40% to 44% medium red (or 50 to 54% do-not-reelect or higher)
under 40% deep red (or 50% or less do-not-reelect if do-not re-elect if do-not-reelect is higher than reelect)
Ties for elect and re-elect are also in white.

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
FL 37-54*
HI 36
MI 28-62*
NH 41-50* (perhaps as much as 41-57, depending upon interpretation)
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November 2017. The poll from Alabama is an  exit poll from the 2017 special election for a Senate seat.  

FWiw, flip Florida and South Carolina, add Nevada because it's pulling always underestimates Democrats and Trump is not going to flip it, and the medium red and better States is almost exactly what I predict as the end result in 2020 barring another Hillary ask unpopular Democrat is the nominee. Montana would be the one true toss-up state.

If there is a mild recession, this is what I see happening if the Democrat is at least moderately qualified and fit and runs at least an average campaign-
http://www.270towin.com/maps/K1Gb6

Trump's ceiling- (Maybe he won't win Michigan?)
http://www.270towin.com/maps/3BvbZ

Trump's floor
http://www.270towin.com/maps/DpGOD

[Person Man]

Gallup

Sep 24-30
TRUMP APPROVAL
42%
+2
TRUMP DISAPPROVAL
53%
-3
Updates Mondays at 1 p.m. ET; reflects one-week change


Kavanaugh bump?

[KingSweden]

Gallup

Sep 24-30
TRUMP APPROVAL
42%
+2
TRUMP DISAPPROVAL
53%
-3
Updates Mondays at 1 p.m. ET; reflects one-week change


Kavanaugh bump?

Could be. Within Gallup’s fairly stable range, so it could also be the ongoing recovery from the 38/55 outlier two weeks ago

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Except that every poll shows people oppose Kavanaugh.

[BudgieForce]

Seems just like gallup's usual fluctuations.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Seems just like gallup's usual fluctuations.

Shhhhh don’t try to ruin the hot takes

[KingSweden]

Seems just like gallup's usual fluctuations.

Other polls have shown some recovery from the Convicfion Day/McCain funeral debacle, so I dunno if we can infer too much of it being Kav related (also, that hearing was probably too recent)

[emailking]

lmao @ conservatives cheering on the fact that in only the most favorable of news cycles, he's able to touch the same numbers he started with

newsflash: Trump hasn't expanded his base at all, and the attrition due to these fossils dying out (by natural causes or by inhaling toxic fumes from burning their Nikes) will be enough to carry a generic non-Hillary Dem over the finish line, in the best case scenario for you where literally everyone votes exactly the same

True, Trump is in deep trouble if he can't find a way to expand his base. But by that same token, can we stop the circlejerking about <insert whatever Democrat here> winning a 400+ EV double digit PV landslide in 2020 every time he takes a dip in the polls?

This whole thread is a contradictory circle jerk. It is filled with liberals talking about how meaningless a one-point uptick in Trump's approval ratings is, while at the same time creaming over every one-point dip.

Well, in fairness, you can credibly make the argument that a 1 point change is significant, and also argue that it is meaningless. Depends on your perspective.

[twenty42]

Rasmussen, Sept. 26-30, 1500 LV
Approve 48, Disapprove 50

Harvard-Harris, Sept. 29-30, 1330 RV
Approve 45, Disapprove 55

RCP average, Sept. 16-30
Approve 44.2, Disapprove 52.4

RCP average has gone from 40.6 to 44.2 in the last two and a half weeks. Please feel free to pontificate on the meaninglessness of this bump below.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Nevada: CNN/SSRS, Sep. 25-29, 1003 adults including 851 registered voters and 693 likely voters

All adults: Approve 37, disapprove 53

RV: 43/51

LV: 45/51


Missouri: CNN/SSRS, Sep. 25-29, 1003 adults including 906 RV and 756 LV

All adults: 48/45

RV: 49/46

LV: 51/45