Trump approval ratings thread, 1.4

[Person Man]

The Texas and Arizona numbers seem about right.

[Progressive Pessimist]

New Jersey's seem especially high to me?

Yes, it's not in line with other recent results from NJ.  Either Trump's standing has improved there or this is a bit of an outlier.

Hugin coattails! No, not really. It's definitely an outlier.

[pbrower2a]

CBS/YouGov state polls:

Arizona, Oct. 2-5, 1010 RV

Approve 46 (strongly 29)
Disapprove 53 (strongly 39)

New Jersey, Oct. 2-5, 1009 RV

Approve 43 (strongly 27)
Disapprove 57 (strongly 48)

Tennessee, Oct. 2-5, 1002 RV

Approve 61 (strongly 37)
Disapprove 39 (strongly 32)

Texas, Oct. 2-5, 1031 RV

Approve 51 (strongly 33)
Disapprove 49 (strongly 40)

  

55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 30
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 39
RI 30
VT 32

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue, but must be a lead of at least 3%)
50% or higher but positive, or a margin less than 3%, pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 33
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

*With the explicit question of whether the President should or should not be re-elected (AZ, FL, MI, MN, NH, OH, WI), or 100-DIS if such is all that is available:


Re-elect/do not re-elect if known; 100-DIS otherwise

100-DIS

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue (but must be a lead of at least 3%)
iess than 50% positive or a margin less than 3% pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red (or 55% do-not-reelect or higher)
40% to 44% medium red (or 50 to 54% do-not-reelect or higher)
under 40% deep red (or 50% or less do-not-reelect if do-not re-elect if do-not-reelect is higher than reelect)
Ties for elect and re-elect are also in white.

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
FL 37-54*
HI 36
MI 28-62*
NH 41-50* (perhaps as much as 41-57, depending upon interpretation)
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

[Badger]

Another PDF of a national poll. Morning Consult. Morning Consult has typically gotten results more favorable to Donald Trump...

https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/180941_crosstabs_POLITICO_v1_HS.pdf

18-29   29-61
30-44  40-53
45-54  45-51
55-64  42-55
65+  51-49

(Trump has an edge among the elderly -- barely. Otherwise he fails with all age groups).

Generation Z (18-21) 29-61
Millennial (22-37) 36-55
X  (38-53) 42-53
Boom (54-72) 47-52

(Closer than usual to the definitions used by Howe and Strauss, which I will be showing in a Forum related to their theory)


Ethnicity

white 48-48
black  13-83
Latino 29-67
other  28-61

(Trump breaks even among whites in approval, and if approval and disapproval correlate strictly to voting, then Trump could not win even the "whitest" states. For example, if Trump should break even in Montana and South Dakota among whites, then the largest minority in those states, First Peoples, would be enough to decide an election against him).

Re: Age. I'm disappointed to see my Genex cohorts still relatively behind Trump. Again, relatively speaking.

When I see that senior citizens are nearly in favor of trump, but Boomers up to age 72 are somewhat opposed, I seriously Wonder what her riffic numbers there are supporting Trump from the ancient septuagenarian, octogenarian and even older voters is.

Regarding race, technically if Trump tide of a white voters Nationwide, all things being equal, he would lose all 50 states and smooth Nori's wood shift the balance against him in every state, even the whitest ones like South Dakota and Wyoming. However, of course whites don't vote consistently from place to place. Vermont's in Wyoming are going to vote markedly different from whites in Vermont.

[pbrower2a]

Another PDF of a national poll. Morning Consult. Morning Consult has typically gotten results more favorable to Donald Trump...

https://morningconsult.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/180941_crosstabs_POLITICO_v1_HS.pdf

18-29   29-61
30-44  40-53
45-54  45-51
55-64  42-55
65+  51-49

(Trump has an edge among the elderly -- barely. Otherwise he fails with all age groups).

Generation Z (18-21) 29-61
Millennial (22-37) 36-55
X  (38-53) 42-53
Boom (54-72) 47-52

(Closer than usual to the definitions used by Howe and Strauss, which I will be showing in a Forum related to their theory)


Ethnicity

white 48-48
black  13-83
Latino 29-67
other  28-61

(Trump breaks even among whites in approval, and if approval and disapproval correlate strictly to voting, then Trump could not win even the "whitest" states. For example, if Trump should break even in Montana and South Dakota among whites, then the largest minority in those states, First Peoples, would be enough to decide an election against him).

Re: Age. I'm disappointed to see my Genex cohorts still relatively behind Trump. Again, relatively speaking.

But he stands to lose them. If he nearly breaks even among the elderly and loses everyone else by significant margins, he cannot get the plurality of the vote. He could win if one of two things happen:

(1) as in 2016, Democrats effectively run up extreme vote totals in such states as California and New York while doing badly in smaller states.

(2) the center-to-left part of the electorate splits between nominees, as between the Democrat and a strong independent.

I see neither happening now. People know what President Trump is and evidently dislike him and his political allies.   

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Shrinking constituency.

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Distribution of the vote matters greatly. Consider the Hispanic vote: what sort of Hispanics matters greatly. White Cuban-Americans are quite right-wing in Florida, enough so that Florida is a lean-R state even with a large Hispanic population. Non-Cuban, and non-white Cuban Hispanics are hostile to the Right as they have no stake in restoring the pre-Castro order in Cuba. They would be satisfied with a Vaclav Havel-type who brings back civil liberties but not an aristocratic plutocracy. Trump believes in aristocratic plutocracy... everywhere.

But this is all consistent with Trump losing like Hoover in 1932 or Carter in 1980. With these numbers we have evidence of Presidential failure.  The numbers may be premature as predictors, but they don't look good for the President. He has not won any large constituency of voters over. He has convinced people who disliked his stile but love his support for an aristocratic plutocracy. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

Florida: Florida Southern College, Oct. 1-5, 476 likely voters

Approve 48 (strongly 34)
Disapprove 48 (strongly 40)

[Person Man]

And Gillum is up 3 in that poll.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup weekly:

Approve 43 (+1)
Disapprove 53 (nc)

[LimoLiberal]

Trump has shut up and let the news cycles play out these past few weeks. Thus, his approval is rapidly rising in aggregators along with the GOP's midterm chances. Same thing he did in the last few weeks of the 2016 election.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Trump has shut up and let the news cycles play out these past few weeks. Thus, his approval is rapidly rising in aggregators along with the GOP's midterm chances. Same thing he did in the last few weeks of the 2016 election.

Seems LL is correct.  Yet another masterstroke by President Trump.

Oh despair.

[pbrower2a]

The Kavanaugh nomination is an unqualified victory for the President if a loss for a majority of Americans. Still, some people see only the win, and they love winners.

I hate American politics. 

[BudgieForce]

Trump has shut up and let the news cycles play out these past few weeks. Thus, his approval is rapidly rising in aggregators along with the GOP's midterm chances. Same thing he did in the last few weeks of the 2016 election.

Well, no. Trumps approval has just recovered to pre-manafort levels. They dropped and recovered, it's as simple as that..

[Person Man]

Trump has shut up and let the news cycles play out these past few weeks. Thus, his approval is rapidly rising in aggregators along with the GOP's midterm chances. Same thing he did in the last few weeks of the 2016 election.

Seems LL is correct.  Yet another masterstroke by President Trump.

Oh despair.

That's why he's worth. $ 10 000 000 000 today!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump has shut up and let the news cycles play out these past few weeks. Thus, his approval is rapidly rising in aggregators along with the GOP's midterm chances. Same thing he did in the last few weeks of the 2016 election.

Well, no. Trumps approval has just recovered to pre-manafort levels. They dropped and recovered, it's as simple as that..

Yep.  Here's another data point for that:

CNN/SSRS, Oct. 4-7, 1009 adults including 920 RV and 739 LV.  The toplines appear to be for the entire adult sample.

Approve 41 (+5)
Disapprove 52 (-6)

This has wiped out the drop that occurred during the Manafort/Cohen and McCain news; the previous poll was right in the middle of it.  The one before that (early August) was 42/53.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Trump has shut up and let the news cycles play out these past few weeks. Thus, his approval is rapidly rising in aggregators along with the GOP's midterm chances. Same thing he did in the last few weeks of the 2016 election.

Well, no. Trumps approval has just recovered to pre-manafort levels. They dropped and recovered, it's as simple as that..

Yep.  Here's another data point for that:

CNN/SSRS, Oct. 4-7, 1009 adults including 920 RV and 739 LV.  The toplines appear to be for the entire adult sample.

Approve 41 (+5)
Disapprove 52 (-6)

This has wiped out the drop that occurred during the Manafort/Cohen and McCain news; the previous poll was right in the middle of it.  The one before that (early August) was 42/53.

Heed LimoLiberal's dire warnings, Atlas of Old.  Prepare for the red wave as he has predicted, lest your hearts be shattered on November the 6th.  I've already bought tissues and Haegen-Daiz.  The Seventh Trumpet shall ring soon. 

Hey!  Check out Atlas After Dark!  http://atlasafterdark.freeforums.net/ 

[ON Progressive]

North Carolina: SurveyUSA, October 2-6, 1032 registered voters

Approve: 42
Disapprove: 50

[Person Man]

North Carolina: SurveyUSA, October 2-6, 1032 registered voters

Approve: 42
Disapprove: 50

Probably puts him at 40 nationwide.

[IceSpear]

Trump has shut up and let the news cycles play out these past few weeks. Thus, his approval is rapidly rising in aggregators along with the GOP's midterm chances. Same thing he did in the last few weeks of the 2016 election.

Well, no. Trumps approval has just recovered to pre-manafort levels. They dropped and recovered, it's as simple as that..

Remember when they weren't recovering? Good times.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ohio: Baldwin Wallace, Sep. 28 - Oct. 8, 1017 RV

Approve 45
Disapprove 50

[pbrower2a]

Florida: Florida Southern College, Oct. 1-5, 476 likely voters

Approve 48 (strongly 34)
Disapprove 48 (strongly 40)

North Carolina: SurveyUSA, October 2-6, 1032 registered voters

Approve: 42
Disapprove: 50

Probably puts him at 40 nationwide.

Ohio: Baldwin Wallace, Sep. 28 - Oct. 8, 1017 RV

Approve 45
Disapprove 50

Slightly pro-Trump movement in disapproval.

Let's see how the post-Kavanaugh polling goes.

.............

Nevada, Marist/NBC News

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https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/poll-races-nevada-are-dead-heat-n918251

For the 2018 midterm elections I am going with likely voters. For 2020 I am going with registered voters.  

Democrats seem not to be making the headway against Republicans in Nevada as in states such as Minnesota and New Hampshire that Trump barely lost or in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin that Trump barely won.

..........

Quinnipiac, Connecticut, likely voters:

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https://poll.qu.edu/connecticut/release-detail?ReleaseID=2577

At this point I prefer 'registered voters' to 'likely voters' for assessing the 2020 Presidential election, but the focus of this poll is on 2018 races.

  

55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 39
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 39
RI 30
VT 32

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue, but must be a lead of at least 3%)
50% or higher but positive, or a margin less than 3%, pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

*With the explicit question of whether the President should or should not be re-elected (AZ, FL, MI, MN, NH, OH, WI), or 100-DIS if such is all that is available:


Re-elect/do not re-elect if known; 100-DIS otherwise

100-DIS

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue (but must be a lead of at least 3%)
iess than 50% positive or a margin less than 3% pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red (or 55% do-not-reelect or higher)
40% to 44% medium red (or 50 to 54% do-not-reelect or higher)
under 40% deep red (or 50% or less do-not-reelect if do-not re-elect if do-not-reelect is higher than reelect)
Ties for elect and re-elect are also in white.

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
FL 37-54*
HI 36
MI 28-62*
NH 41-50* (perhaps as much as 41-57, depending upon interpretation)
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

[pbrower2a]

Morning Consult, national poll:

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41% Approve  3% No Opinion 56% Disapprove

My commentary so that I can avoid copyright violations:

Morning Consult has typically had a rosier view of the Trump administration than other pollsters, and the 41-56 spread shows a tie for the highest disapproval number for the President on Morning Consult. (Check the time-based demographic).  This is after Trump and the GOP successfully steam-rolled the confirmation of now-Justice Kavanaugh. Nothing matters for now in American  politics except the partisan agenda of the GOP -- at least until the public chooses to vote against the GOP in November or to ratify a cadre party's hold on government. 

Approval has been lower -- at 39% at a point in August 2017 and at 40% as late as August 31 this year. But this is close to the low end for Morning Consult.

(The right-track/wrong-track is in the same general area, so I give little comment on that).

More critical to Election 2018:

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This is the least-flattering split for the GOP since the inauguration of Donald Trump. The confirmation of Bret Kavanaugh was an undeniable win for Trump and the GOP -- but it may have been a Pyrrhic victory. Politics is all about power and not about service with the Trump regime, and whether the GOP and Trump can be ruthless enough to undo its incompetence will be known about three weeks from today.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Georgia: PPP, Oct. 5-6, 729 voters

Approve 50
Disapprove 46

[Inmate Trump]

Georgia: PPP, Oct. 5-6, 729 voters

Approve 50
Disapprove 46

Ugh!

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov, Oct. 7-9, 1500 adults including 1162 registered voters

Adults:

Approve 40 (+3)
Disapprove 50 (-2)

Strongly approve 23 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 40 (nc)

RV:

Approve 43 (-1)
Disapprove 53 (nc)

Strongly approve 28 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+2)

GCB (RV only): D 47 (+2), R 41 (+1)

[Person Man]

YouGov, Oct. 7-9, 1500 adults including 1162 registered voters

Adults:

Approve 40 (+3)
Disapprove 50 (-2)

Strongly approve 23 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 40 (nc)

RV:

Approve 43 (-1)
Disapprove 53 (nc)

Strongly approve 28 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+2)

GCB (RV only): D 47 (+2), R 41 (+1)

Steady improvement of the D position...