Trump approval ratings thread, 1.4

[GeorgiaModerate]

EPIC-MRA, WOOD-TV (NBC-8, Grand Rapids/Kalamazoo)

Michigan:

 

Practically identical to the IPSOS/Reuters poll of Michigan. A rather frosty reception... and it is only early autumn in Michigan.

More details:

Michigan: Epic/MRA, Sep. 21-25, 600 likely voters

How would you rate the way that Donald Trump is doing as president?

Excellent 18
Pretty good 21
Just fair 16
Poor 43

[Sorenroy]

EPIC-MRA, WOOD-TV (NBC-8, Grand Rapids/Kalamazoo)

Michigan:

 

Practically identical to the IPSOS/Reuters poll of Michigan. A rather frosty reception... and it is only early autumn in Michigan.

More details:

Michigan: Epic/MRA, Sep. 21-25, 600 likely voters

How would you rate the way that Donald Trump is doing as president?

Excellent 18
Pretty good 21
Just fair 16
Poor 43

It's really irritating that polling agencies ask these kind of questions and then show in the topline that people who said that the job Trump is doing as president is "just fair" are represented as having a negative opinion. If I had a "just fair" opinion of someone I would likely also be in the "somewhat favorable" category.

[Person Man]

EPIC-MRA, WOOD-TV (NBC-8, Grand Rapids/Kalamazoo)

Michigan:

 

Practically identical to the IPSOS/Reuters poll of Michigan. A rather frosty reception... and it is only early autumn in Michigan.

More details:

Michigan: Epic/MRA, Sep. 21-25, 600 likely voters

How would you rate the way that Donald Trump is doing as president?

Excellent 18
Pretty good 21
Just fair 16
Poor 43

It's really irritating that polling agencies ask these kind of questions and then show in the topline that people who said that the job Trump is doing as president is "just fair" are represented as having a negative opinion. If I had a "just fair" opinion of someone I would likely also be in the "somewhat favorable" category.

If you consider the "fair" people those who are truly up for grabs, these polls make a lot of sense. 43% definitely will vote for anyone but Trump and 39% will voter for him.  This means Trump can only win Michigan if the economy is still as strong AND he runs and substantially better campaign than his Democratic challenger. If one of those things is true and the other isn't, he will probably lose the way Bush did both times. If none of those things are true, he will lose about as badly as Romney did there.

[American2020]

Trump approvals in several "Frost Belt" states (I like this term!) from Ipsos/Reuters/UVA:

Indiana: 48% approve-51% disapprove

Michigan: 39%-59%

Ohio: 45%-54%

Pennsylvania: 44%-56%

Wisconsin: 42%-58%

http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/new-polls-democrats-in-decent-shape-across-the-frost-belt/

If the presidential election would be held this year, he'd be toast and prepare his boxes to go back to his Trump Tower.

[pbrower2a]

Indeed the word 'fair' can range in meaning from 'good' (fair weather is pleasant weather, and fair dealing is good business for all) to awful.  If I were listening to a child giving a 'fair' performance of Bach's Chaconne for solo violin,   I would would be impressed. If I had paid eighty bucks to hear an alleged master of the violin play it at a 'fair' quality, I would be appalled.

'Fair' with respect to Presidential performance implies mediocrity... and we expect better. The President has the nuclear football. He can give orders as Commander in Chief that can be disobeyed at the risk of international crises. He can insult foreign leaders and thus much up foreign policy.

The negative-positive split  (and it is uncharacteristically placed with "negative" on top) is in line with the Ipsos poll of Michigan that shows much the same as approval and disapproval.

Recognizing that this is a poor-fair-good-excellent poll I would not use it on my polling map. I would use letter grades (A and B approval, D and E or F as disapproval, and C as undecided) because there is no ambiguity about schools -- but I have seen few of those. 

[pbrower2a]

Trump approvals in several "Frost Belt" states (I like this term!) from Ipsos/Reuters/UVA:

Indiana: 48% approve-51% disapprove

Michigan: 39%-59%

Ohio: 45%-54%

Pennsylvania: 44%-56%

Wisconsin: 42%-58%

http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/new-polls-democrats-in-decent-shape-across-the-frost-belt/

If the presidential election would be held this year, he'd be toast and prepare his boxes to go back to his Trump Tower.

That's 75 electoral votes changing direction (one does not win with 51% disapproval), 83 if you add Iowa, which is demographically similar to Wisconsin. Except that Arizona and Georgia are practically screaming that  they will not vote for Trump again, the electoral map of 2020 could easily look like a replay of Barack Obama winning in 2008.

I don't predict the results of political events upon polls, but Brett Kavanaugh looks like a gigantic fiasco. This cannot help Trump. I was listening to his opening statement and had to turn it off because it simply grated on me. The man sounds like a guilty defendant accusing some political conspiracy for his impending conviction.

[Sorenroy]

EPIC-MRA, WOOD-TV (NBC-8, Grand Rapids/Kalamazoo)

Michigan:

 

Practically identical to the IPSOS/Reuters poll of Michigan. A rather frosty reception... and it is only early autumn in Michigan.

More details:

Michigan: Epic/MRA, Sep. 21-25, 600 likely voters

How would you rate the way that Donald Trump is doing as president?

Excellent 18
Pretty good 21
Just fair 16
Poor 43

It's really irritating that polling agencies ask these kind of questions and then show in the topline that people who said that the job Trump is doing as president is "just fair" are represented as having a negative opinion. If I had a "just fair" opinion of someone I would likely also be in the "somewhat favorable" category.

If you consider the "fair" people those who are truly up for grabs, these polls make a lot of sense. 43% definitely will vote for anyone but Trump and 39% will voter for him.  This means Trump can only win Michigan if the economy is still as strong AND he runs and substantially better campaign than his Democratic challenger. If one of those things is true and the other isn't, he will probably lose the way Bush did both times. If none of those things are true, he will lose about as badly as Romney did there.

I agree with what you're saying here, people who say their opinion of someone is "fair" are, to some extent, up for grabs. However, what I have a problem with here is that rather than lead with the fact they asked a excellent, good, fair, poor question, this polling organization decided to use the words "positive" and "negative" in their topline. In my opinion, you should remain consistent in the way you publish the information you collect.

[pbrower2a]

EPIC-MRA, WOOD-TV (NBC-8, Grand Rapids/Kalamazoo)

Michigan:

 

Practically identical to the IPSOS/Reuters poll of Michigan. A rather frosty reception... and it is only early autumn in Michigan.

More details:

Michigan: Epic/MRA, Sep. 21-25, 600 likely voters

How would you rate the way that Donald Trump is doing as president?

Excellent 18
Pretty good 21
Just fair 16
Poor 43

It's really irritating that polling agencies ask these kind of questions and then show in the topline that people who said that the job Trump is doing as president is "just fair" are represented as having a negative opinion. If I had a "just fair" opinion of someone I would likely also be in the "somewhat favorable" category.

If you consider the "fair" people those who are truly up for grabs, these polls make a lot of sense. 43% definitely will vote for anyone but Trump and 39% will voter for him.  This means Trump can only win Michigan if the economy is still as strong AND he runs and substantially better campaign than his Democratic challenger. If one of those things is true and the other isn't, he will probably lose the way Bush did both times. If none of those things are true, he will lose about as badly as Romney did there.

I agree with what you're saying here, people who say their opinion of someone is "fair" are, to some extent, up for grabs. However, what I have a problem with here is that rather than lead with the fact they asked a excellent, good, fair, poor question, this polling organization decided to use the words "positive" and "negative" in their topline. In my opinion, you should remain consistent in the way you publish the information you collect.

The polls that I put on the map do not include "excellent-good-fair-poor" polls due to the question that I have of the meaning of 'fair' -- which is not predictably derogatory. The ones that I accept involve approval (slight or strong) and disapproval (again, slight or strong). I also have "re-elect" and "do not re-elect" for seven states, but nothing new in September.     

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1045675149360476162

[BudgieForce]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1045675149360476162

You dont really need to worry about posting Rasmussen's daily tracking poll here.

[pbrower2a]

Rasmussen... raspberries.

[twenty42]

Rasmussen... raspberries.

Most accurate poll of the 2016 election.

[libertpaulian]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1045675149360476162

(R)asmussen...take it with a grain of salt.

[pbrower2a]

Rasmussen... raspberries.

Most accurate poll of the 2016 election.

2018 is a hugely-different environment than was 2016. 2016 had a midterm-like turnout, and 2018 looks as if it will be more like a general election.

Choosing the winner often depends upon figuring out not so much what people think, but who will vote. Trump will be turning out not only the Democratic base, but also the 'squishy' Democratic support.

[JG]

Rasmussen... raspberries.

Most accurate poll of the 2016 election.

2018 is a hugely-different environment than was 2016. 2016 had a midterm-like turnout, and 2018 looks as if it will be more like a general election.

Choosing the winner often depends upon figuring out not so much what people think, but who will vote. Trump will be turning out not only the Democratic base, but also the 'squishy' Democratic support.

I agree that we shouldn't put too much trust in Rasmussen, but 2016 had a pretty average presidential turnout. It was in no way close to a midterm-like turnout. That just isn't true.

[The Mikado]

2018 is a hugely-different environment than was 2016. 2016 had a midterm-like turnout, and 2018 looks as if it will be more like a general election.

What the hell are you talking about?

VEP Highest Office from Elect Project:

2000: 54.2%
2004: 60.1%
2008: 61.6%
2012: 58.0%
2016: 59.2%

2016 is not at all out of line with standard general election turnout. 2018, even at the high estimates, will end up somewhere around 45%-50% turnout. (Still way better than any midterm in recent memory, of course)

[pbrower2a]

Oklahoma, Right Strategies Group (whatever that is)

Trump approval 56%, disapproval 39%

http://www.therightstrategygroup.com/september-26-2018-survey.html

(Numbers modified retroactively in the previous map).

I would not be surprised if President Trump gets 61% of the vote in Oklahoma. I'm going on 100-DIS as the ceiling for the most likely electoral result for an incumbent on the assumption that the undecided usually drift toward the incumbent.  We get few polls of Oklahoma. Oklahoma was Trump's second-best state in 2016, winning 65-29 over Clinton.

Previous votes:

2012 Romney 67-33
2008 McCain 66-34
2004 Bush 66-34
2000 Bush 60-38

(elections in 1992 and 1996 are three-way elections decided by 8%)

1988 Bush 58-41
1984 Reagan 69-31
1980 Reagan 61-35
1976 Ford 50-49

Oklahoma hasn't been close since 1976.

Can we look at a state with extreme partisanship as relevant to predicting a subsequent election? Let's put it this way -- if Oklahoma fares less well by 4% for Trump in 2020 than it did in 2016, then Donald Trump will be getting significantly less of the popular vote in 2020. He has little margin that he can lose nationwide.   

[GeorgiaModerate]

New Hampshire: ARG, Sep. 21-26, 897 adults (change from June)

Approve 40 (-4)
Disapprove 56 (+4)

D: 2/96
R: 64/33
Undeclared: 46/49

[ON Progressive]

New Hampshire: ARG, Sep. 21-26, 897 adults (change from June)

Approve 40 (-4)
Disapprove 56 (+4)

D: 2/96
R: 64/33
Undeclared: 46/49

ARGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG

(_{i'm not sorry, i had to})

[pbrower2a]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/new-polls-democrats-in-decent-shape-across-the-frost-belt/

Take a look at the poll from Indiana. Trump disapproval is now over 50% in what is typically one of the toughest states for a Democrat to win. How tough? It has gone only twice for a Democratic nominee for President since 1936. It could be that the fast-growing suburbs of Indianapolis that used to be reliably Republican are no longer so reliably Republican (see also a pattern emerging in Arizona, Georgia, and Texas). It could also be that rural voters are beginning to see the harm from the trade war and the huge tax increase known as tariffs.

New Hampshire: ARG, Sep. 21-26, 897 adults (change from June)

Approve 40 (-4)
Disapprove 56 (+4)

D: 2/96
R: 64/33
Undeclared: 46/49

Here's how I rate the Frost Belt states, the states and DC mostly north of the Potomac and Ohio rivers and Iowa and Minnesota, for the Presidential election:

TOSS-UP    IN, ME-02, NE-02
TILT D  OH
LEAN D ME-AL, PA
SOLID D about everything else
SUPER-SOLID D  DC MA MD NY

Oklahoma, Right Strategies Group (whatever that is)

Trump approval 56%, disapproval 39%

http://www.therightstrategygroup.com/september-26-2018-survey.html

I would not be surprised if President Trump gets 61% of the vote in Oklahoma. I'm going on 100-DIS as the most likely electoral result for an incumbent on the assumption that the undecided usually drift toward the incumbent.  We get few polls of Oklahoma. Oklahoma was Trump's second-best state in 2016, winning 65-29 over Clinton.

 


  

55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 30
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 39
RI 30
VT 32

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue, but must be a lead of at least 3%)
50% or higher but positive, or a margin less than 3%, pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 33
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

*With the explicit question of whether the President should or should not be re-elected (AZ, FL, MI, MN, NH, OH, WI), or 100-DIS if such is all that is available:


Re-elect/do not re-elect if known; 100-DIS otherwise

100-DIS

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue (but must be a lead of at least 3%)
iess than 50% positive or a margin less than 3% pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red (or 55% do-not-reelect or higher)
40% to 44% medium red (or 50 to 54% do-not-reelect or higher)
under 40% deep red (or 50% or less do-not-reelect if do-not re-elect if do-not-reelect is higher than reelect)
Ties for elect and re-elect are also in white.

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
FL 37-54*
HI 36
MI 28-62*
NH 41-50* (perhaps as much as 41-57, depending upon interpretation)
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November 2017. The poll from Alabama is an  exit poll from the 2017 special election for a Senate seat.  

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Trump back to the low to mid 40s via RCP, rebounding from the hit he took with Cohen/Manafort.

LOL nothing can bring Trump down. He always bounces right back. MSM will surely wash, rinse, repeat, though....SAD.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

[Old Man Willow]

Trump back to the low to mid 40s via RCP, rebounding from the hit he took with Cohen/Manafort.

LOL nothing can bring Trump down. He always bouncing right back. MSM will surely wash, rinse, repeat, though....SAD.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

Why are conservatives so stupid?

[pbrower2a]

Florida, Florida Chamber of Commerce:

Job performance: 46-51

http://floridapolitics.com/archives/276094-florida-chamber-poll-has-bill-nelson-edging-rick-scott
Not using -- special interest using a pollster of which I have never heard. Still bad news for Trump. 

http://floridapolitics.com/archives/276094-florida-chamber-poll-has-bill-nelson-edging-rick-scott

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Trump back to the low to mid 40s via RCP, rebounding from the hit he took with Cohen/Manafort.

LOL nothing can bring Trump down. He always bouncing right back. MSM will surely wash, rinse, repeat, though....SAD.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html

Why are conservatives so stupid?

[henster]

He always seems to float back to 44-45% after any rough patch, essentially what he got in 2016. I think he's had very little attrition since the election maybe losing a little of his initial support and gaining a tiny amount.