Trump approval ratings thread, 1.4

[GeorgiaModerate]

Quinnipiac, Jan. 9-13, 1209 RV (1-month change)

Approve 41 (+2)
Disapprove 55 (+3)

Strongly approve 33 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 50 (+4)

(Yes, they all increased.)

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1084493713768964096

Those are the worst fivethirtyeight numbers for Trump since september and if they get just a teeny bit worse, it will be his worst numbers since last february.

Reverse those, and what do you have -- Eisenhower?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

If you head on over to RCP, you'll see Trump's net approval has declined 5 points since before the shutdown.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

The Trump shutdown sure is working against him.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It is as if he is being whittled back down to the 35-40% of the electorate who represents his alt-right base.

That would be for the best. His often swayed-back soft supporters are probably the worst people in the country. At least his cultists have conviction.

[pbrower2a]

The Trump shutdown sure is working against him.

Good government is above all good public service. It is protection against danger, economic improvement, protection of the weak and vulnerable, and mitigation of harm. How much of that describes President Trump?


I want to be bi-partisan in the discussion. You will have to admit that President Obama handled natural disasters well with Republican Governors in the afflicted states. Do you remember the horrid Nor'easter (a winter storm that has some characteristics of a hurricane, except that the wind is cold) in New Jersey before the 2012 election? President Obama basically quit making campaign appearances to meet the storm. Hurricanes in Florida? Say what you want about Governor Rick Scott, whom most Democrats hold in contempt, but he and Obama were a good team when a hurricane struck. Trump and Scott did not make a good team.

Trump has his wall.   

[Arnaud]

Reminder... Trump won Independents by 4% overall in 2016.

More important he won independents in :

WI by 13%

PA by 7%

MI by 16%

And being able to win the 3 states by only 70k votes with depressed Democratic turnout overall

Honestly How many people see that  happening again?

[pbrower2a]

Reminder... Trump won Independents by 4% overall in 2016.

More important he won independents in :

WI by 13%

PA by 7%

MI by 16%

And being able to win the 3 states by only 70k votes with depressed Democratic turnout overall

Honestly How many people see that  happening again?

Independent voters are the only real swing voters -- aside from people drifting from one Party to the other who think that they remain with their old party.

Trump behavior is erratic and hyper-partisan, which is not how one attracts independent voters. He shows more concern for a border wall than for something so basic as airline safety, food inspection, or tax refunds.   

[GeorgiaModerate]

Pew Research, Jan. 9-14, 1505 adults (change from Sept.)

Approve 37 (-1)
Disapprove 59 (+4)

The 538 average is now at the worst point for Trump since last February.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico, Jan. 11-14, 1984 RV (1-week change)

Approve 42 (-1)
Disapprove 54 (+2)

Strongly approve 23 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 42 (+3)

[pbrower2a]

Morning Consult/Politico, Jan. 11-14, 1984 RV (1-week change)

Approve 42 (-1)
Disapprove 54 (+2)

Strongly approve 23 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 42 (+3)

Is this the first poll in which "strongly disapprove" is above total approval?

This suggests Presidential failure.

Pew Research, Jan. 9-14, 1505 adults (change from Sept.)

Approve 37 (-1)
Disapprove 59 (+4)

The 538 average is now at the worst point for Trump since last February.

I'd love to see some state polls. Maybe the unflattering poll of Trump approval from Alaska was not an outlier.

President Trump is still safe from impeachment and being defeated in a Republican primary. He would need an approval rating in the low twenties for such to happen, as when Republican pols would have to contemplate impeaching him to save their political careers.

[ProudModerate2]

If you head on over to RCP, you'll see Trump's net approval has declined 5 points since before the shutdown.

It has sharply turned.

[GeorgiaModerate]

If you head on over to RCP, you'll see Trump's net approval has declined 5 points since before the shutdown.

It has sharply turned.

This sure doesn't put any pressure on Pelosi to give in.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Throw another log on the fire:

Marist, Jan. 10-13, 1023 adults including 873 RV (prior poll Nov. 28-Dec. 4)

Adults:

Approve 39 (-3)
Disapprove 53 (+4)

Strongly approve 24 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 45 (+8)

RV:

Approve 40 (-3)
Disapprove 54 (+5)

Strongly approve 26 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+7)

[Dr. Arch]

Throw another log on the fire:

Marist, Jan. 10-13, 1023 adults including 873 RV (prior poll Nov. 28-Dec. 4)

Adults:

Approve 39 (-3)
Disapprove 53 (+4)

Strongly approve 24 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 45 (+8)

RV:

Approve 40 (-3)
Disapprove 54 (+5)

Strongly approve 26 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+7)

A complete meltdown of approval numbers

[pbrower2a]

How does a President get strong disapproval above total approval?

It looks as if we Americans are getting a hard lesson in Civics,

Can we say it now? Donald Trump is a failure.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The HarrisX daily tracker for scottrasmussen.com (not affiliated with the better-known Rasmussen Reports), which has historically been good for Trump, is seeing some slippage.  This is a 3-day rolling average of around 3000 registered voters.  Today's numbers:

Approve 42 (strongly 21)
Disapprove 58 (strongly 44)

I believe these are record lows/highs for all four values in this poll.

[pbrower2a]

Here is my rare prediction -- that Donald Trump will cave on the wall and recover some of his approval numbers. Some, that is. People are going to remember the results of his temper tantrum; Democrats will be wise to bring that up again in the autumn  of 2020.

Will this happen again? Can we afford the same Donald Trump?

Only fools make the same bad bets once they know that they have made bad bets. Even if craps is one of the cleanest dice games, the operator makes the money and the gamblers on the average lose.

 

[GeorgiaModerate]

Throw another log on the fire:

Marist, Jan. 10-13, 1023 adults including 873 RV (prior poll Nov. 28-Dec. 4)

Adults:

Approve 39 (-3)
Disapprove 53 (+4)

Strongly approve 24 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 45 (+8)

RV:

Approve 40 (-3)
Disapprove 54 (+5)

Strongly approve 26 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+7)

Another tidbit from this poll:

"Thinking about the 2020 election, do you definitely plan to vote for Donald Trump for reelection as president or do you definitely plan to vote against him?"

All RV: 30 for, 57 against

D: 5/91
R: 69/10
I: 25/62

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1085929650474438658

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Trump hits 55% disapproval in the 538 tracker for the first time in 11 months.

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1085929650474438658

Well, 40% of the American people said eight years ago that they would not vote to re-elect Barack Obama, and about 49% of the public voted for someone else in 2012. Figuring that such is about the same question...

We're not discussing much the same thing.

[GeorgiaModerate]

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[Badger]

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The fact Barr and Mueller not only have a long professional relationship that are personally close has been the subject of multiple media reports over the last couple weeks. How could TV watcher Trump miss this?

I have to admit, that personal relationship and bars comments thus far have led me to believe he's the best possible choice that Trump could have inadvertently made for a g at this time. While news that Trump was totally taken off guard about this relationship could possibly be a head fake planted in the news by the White House to shore up support for bar, it just seems to ring true about the moron in Chief.

If Trump truly was unaware of this, I'm all for bars confirmation. It demonstrates that because of that memo he wrote he thought he was getting Appliance gopher boy, what is in actuality found someone that it will stand firm as much or more than sessions did, let alone Whitaker.

[GeorgiaModerate]

(Oops...I meant to post the Barr/Mueller article in Indictment-O-Rama.  Sorry.)

Morning Consult/Politico, Jan. 15-16, 2202 adults

Approve 39 (strongly 22)
Disapprove 56 (strongly 44)

MC usually does RV polls, so I don't want to make a direct comparison.  

Notable mostly because it knocked Trump's approval in the 538 average below 40% for the first time in a long while.