Trump approval ratings thread, 1.4

[Progressive Pessimist]

So in other words a Democratic Congress might be the only thing helping his re-election odds.

I think it's possible. He has a real, actual boogeyman now and can fear monger about the Green New Deal and other policy proposals that won't actually go anywhere. Also, no matter how much better and more effective this Democratic House is, they will never overcome the consistent negative approval ratings that Congress gets.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

So in other words a Democratic Congress might be the only thing helping his re-election odds.

I think it's possible. He has a real, actual boogeyman now and can fear monger about the Green New Deal and other policy proposals that won't actually go anywhere. Also, no matter how much better and more effective this Democratic House is, they will never overcome the consistent negative approval ratings that Congress gets.

I see absolutely no reason to believe any of this. When has the opposition controlling one chamber of congress ever benefited a president's reelection chances?

[pbrower2a]

So in other words a Democratic Congress might be the only thing helping his re-election odds.

I think it's possible. He has a real, actual boogeyman now and can fear monger about the Green New Deal and other policy proposals that won't actually go anywhere. Also, no matter how much better and more effective this Democratic House is, they will never overcome the consistent negative approval ratings that Congress gets.

I see absolutely no reason to believe any of this. When has the opposition controlling one chamber of congress ever benefited a president's reelection chances?

When that opposition Party goes extreme and holds a take-no-prisoners approach to the President, as against Truman in 1946 and 1947 or against Obama in 2011 and 2012.

I expect Trump to run against an extreme-left Congress (at leas he calls anything opposed to him, if Democrats, the Extreme Left) incapable of compromise and unwilling to recognize the Wonder that is Our Great and Glorious Leader.

Of course, Trump is the my-way-or-the-highway leader devoid of moderation, who is incapable of saying a kind word.

With approval ratings as bad as his have recently been, he will need miracles or he will need to cheat to win re-election.

[The Mikado]

When that opposition Party goes extreme and holds a take-no-prisoners approach to the President, as against Truman in 1946 and 1947 or against Obama in 2011 and 2012.

You should also add Clinton. A big chunk of Clinton's recovery in 1995 was due to Newt Gingrich's antics bringing Bill Clinton's Presidency back to life due to having an intensely unlikable rival that he could constantly score points off of.

[pbrower2a]

When that opposition Party goes extreme and holds a take-no-prisoners approach to the President, as against Truman in 1946 and 1947 or against Obama in 2011 and 2012.

You should also add Clinton. A big chunk of Clinton's recovery in 1995 was due to Newt Gingrich's antics bringing Bill Clinton's Presidency back to life due to having an intensely unlikable rival that he could constantly score points off of.

As I vaguely recall, I first thought that Clinton would be a one-term President because the Republicans had the money with which to buy access to the media, that Gingrich was a learned man who could create some principled assault upon the sleazy behavior of Clinton, and that Americans were not fully ready for Clinton style. I thought that the 1994 election established that Republicans had consolidated their Reagan-era constituencies and that things would be back to the Reagan-Bush era.

Of course, Gingrich showed that he was a sleaze in his own right, and his intellectual posturing was itself empty. Americans have a populist disdain for the erudite except perhaps on science and technology.

This time Democrats are hitting the President from the Right on foreign policy, law and order, wasteful spending, and the President's sleazy behavior. Trump is losing the likes of George Will and Steve Schmidt who can make clear that they are conservative -- it is just that Trump is the wrong sort of conservative.   

So the Democrats can undercut President Trump so long as they don't go radical. Americans do not like radicalism, Right or Left. Donald Trump can deride Democrats at every turn and it will not help him.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1096495155731935233

Ouch

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1096495155731935233

Ouch

That's High Point University.

..and that is 40-53 in North Carolina. This is where I see the imminent collapse of any reasonable chance of re-election of the President. The nicest 0hing that I can say about the President's chances is that I have typically considered North Carolina at worst for the President the 295th through the 310th electoral votes for President, although those from Florida, Georgia, Ohio, and perhaps the often-wayward Second Congressional Districts of Maine and Nebraska. In that group are 80 electoral votes, the difference between a close loss for Trump and a landslide win for the Democrat in the high 300s... above 400 should Texas tag along.

Outlier? Not if the President's approval is in the mid-30s. I am tempted to believe that the 44-52 approval rating for Trump reflected a moment of national relief about the wall and the government shutdown, and now the President toys with those again.

OK, so what of the Gallup poll that had the President's approval rating at 44%? That was taken when it seemed that the federal shutdown had come to an end and people started to feel a sense of relief.  I would not be surprised if another Gallup poll has Trump approval back in the middle-to-upper 30s after his recent antics. Ordinarily I do not predict polls; I may instead be setting up a hypothesis.

Could this poll be an outlier? President Trump has trod water in North Carolina in recent months, but this is simply dreadful. Am I convinced? Not completely; to be fully convinced I would need to see some other R+ state (Florida, Georgia, Ohio, perhaps Texas) giving the President a horrid rating instead of a tepid rating.  

Republicans have not won the Presidency without North Carolina since 1956, in case you are curious.     

With cumulative electoral vote totals in each category.

55% and higher
50-54%
49% or less and positive
tie (white)
44-49% and negative 97
40-43% 34
under 40%  109

An asterisk will be applied to any state in which the President's approval rating is above 43% for which the disapproval rating is 50% or higher.

No segregation of districts in Maine and Nebraska -- yet.

33 more states, and 297 electoral votes to go!

[GeorgiaModerate]

McLaughlin, Feb. 6-10, 1000 RV (this is usually a monthly survey, but it looks like they skipped January)

Approve 46 (-2)
Disapprove 52 (+1)

Strongly approve 25 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 40 (+2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Texas: PPP, Feb. 13-14, 743 RV

Approve 48
Disapprove 47

[pbrower2a]

Texas: PPP, Feb. 13-14, 743 RV

Approve 48
Disapprove 47

Hey! This is the first one-state poll since the midterm election of a state in which the President has a bare lead in approval over disapproval. But it is Texas, and Texas straddles 400 electoral votes for a Democratic nominee. Such demonstrates the sorry state of the Trump Presidency. Texas is the difference between a first-stage landslide such as those of Bill Clinton in the 1990s or Obama in 2008... and a second-stage electoral landslide.

Bonus: Beto O'Rourke is just 2% behind the incumbent Republican up for re-election in 2020. Should O'Rourke  choose to run for the Senate seat instead of the Presidency, he might aid in undoing the Senate majority of the Reactionary Party.  

This poll was commissioned by someone in the Dallas County Democratic Party, so beware. C'mon, Texas Tribune!

With cumulative electoral vote totals in each category.

55% and higher
50-54%
49% or less and positive 38
tie (white)
44-49% and negative 97
40-43% 34
under 40%  109

An asterisk will be applied to any state in which the President's approval rating is above 43% for which the disapproval rating is 50% or higher.

No segregation of districts in Maine and Nebraska -- yet.

32 more states, and 261 electoral votes to go!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Emerson, Feb. 14-16, 1000 RV (1-month change)

Approve 43 (+1)
Disapprove 51 (-1)

2020 matchups:

Biden 55, Trump 45

O'Rourke 53, Trump 47
Warren 53, Trump 47

Brown 52, Trump 48
Harris 52, Trump 48

Booker 51, Trump 49
Klobuchar 51, Trump 49
Sanders 51, Trump 49

[pbrower2a]

53-41 against a state of emergency to build the border wall.

I am reasonably  sure that the grafters are already lined up. 

[Progressive Pessimist]

53-41 against a state of emergency to build the border wall.

I am reasonably  sure that the grafters are already lined up. 

Those numbers in support are distressingly high! Though they do line up with his typical bedrock support numbers.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump approval will tick up to 45-48% as conservatives comeback home, but Trump has done enough damage with females in order for Dems to pull off feat: 279 electors. The unemployment rate is good, but other issues aside from that, he hasnt made America great: wage stagnation, and incone inequality, and conservative pet peeves: entitlement reform and natl debt

[Tartarus Sauce]

53-41 against a state of emergency to build the border wall.

I am reasonably  sure that the grafters are already lined up. 

Those numbers in support are distressingly high! Though they do line up with his typical bedrock support numbers.

It’s a heavy outlier, most other polls show a two-thirds split against.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Iowa: Des Moines Register/Selzer, Feb. 10-13, 803 adults

Approve 46
Disapprove 50

This is a record high Iowa approval for Trump by this pollster.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Selzer is a joke these days.

[pbrower2a]

Texas: PPP, Feb. 13-14, 743 RV

Approve 48
Disapprove 47

Hey! This is the first one-state poll since the midterm election of a state in which the President has a bare lead in approval over disapproval. But it is Texas, and Texas straddles 400 electoral votes for a Democratic nominee. Such demonstrates the sorry state of the Trump Presidency. Texas is the difference between a first-stage landslide such as those of Bill Clinton in the 1990s or Obama in 2008... and a second-stage electoral landslide.

Bonus: Beto O'Rourke is just 2% behind the incumbent Republican up for re-election in 2020. Should O'Rourke  choose to run for the Senate seat instead of the Presidency, he might aid in undoing the Senate majority of the Reactionary Party.  

This poll was commissioned by

Iowa: Des Moines Register/Selzer, Feb. 10-13, 803 adults

Approve 46
Disapprove 50

This is a record high Iowa approval for Trump by this pollster.

Still awful. It could be that the poll came out as the shutdown and the Wall imploded politically, so people feel more confident about politics. Could this matter more than any perception of the political competence of the President? Maybe. Trump is not going to win a state in which his disapproval is 50% at its best unless the pain that he inflicts solves something (like stagflation, as was so with Reagan).   

With cumulative electoral vote totals in each category.

55% and higher
50-54%
49% or less and positive 38
tie (white)
44-49% and negative 97
40-43% 34
under 40%  109

An asterisk will be applied to any state in which the President's approval rating is above 43% for which the disapproval rating is 50% or higher.

No segregation of districts in Maine and Nebraska -- yet.

32 more states, and 261 electoral votes to go!

[BlueSwan]

Selzer is a joke these days.

How? During the 2016 race I remember that Selzer had Trump wayy in front in Iowa and everybody thought it was an outlier. Turns out they were right.

[pbrower2a]

Virginia, Quinnipiac:

Virginia is definitely not Trump country. Only 36% of Virginia voters approve of him, and 59% disapprove of him. At this point, Virginia looks like a Democratic runaway for the Presidential election in 2020.
 
Northam: 39-44.

Kaine: 55-35

Warner 51-31

Democratic Party favorability 44-46
Republican Party favorability 33-56

Third trimester abortions if the physician determines that a woman's life or health is at risk 

Support 58 Oppose 31

Fairfax is in deep trouble on the charges of sexual assault.

https://poll.qu.edu/virginia/release-detail?ReleaseID=2600

With cumulative electoral vote totals in each category.

55% and higher
50-54%
49% or less and positive 38
tie (white)
44-49% and negative 97
40-43% 34
under 40%  122

An asterisk will be applied to any state in which the President's approval rating is above 43% for which the disapproval rating is 50% or higher.

No segregation of districts in Maine and Nebraska -- yet.

31 more states, and 248 electoral votes to go!

[Comrade Funk]

And that should shut everyone up

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There are SSM ballot initiatives in KS, NC and TX
 I hate to put a damper on the 400 landslide

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

There are SSM ballot initiatives in KS, NC and TX
 I hate to put a damper on the 400 landslide

No there aren’t, those are legislative attempts that will likely fail.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I know they will fail, but deep Southern states like TX, which Beto supports SSM, against Cruz and lost, are suspicious, thats why Kerry, from Boston lost them all. Clinton, in 2016, too.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

I know they will fail, but deep Southern states like TX, which Beto supports SSM, against Cruz and lost, are suspicious, thats why Kerry, from Boston lost them all. Clinton, in 2016, too.

I don’t think you understand the difference between a bill and a ballot initiative.