Trump approval ratings thread, 1.4

[pbrower2a]

Out come the crayons. I don't find my old "Trump or someone else maps", but the two states that I have from this week alone comprise 67 electoral votes that Donald Trump absolutely cannot lose if he is to be re-elected.

Without electoral votes and with no distinction for districts:

Someone else over 50%, Trump down by 4% or less
Someone else over 50%, Trump down by 5% to 8%
Someone else over 50%, Trump down by 9% or more

(PS: if you can find my last "To Trump or not to Trump" map, please recover it).  

[Badger]

Quinnipiac, March 1-4, 1120 RV (change from late Jan.)

Approve 38 (nc)
Disapprove 55 (-2)

Strongly approve 28 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 46 (-4)

These two questions are interesting:

35. Do you think that President Trump committed any crimes before he was president, or
don't you think so?

Yes 64
No 24

(R: 33/48, D: 89/5, I: 65/23)

36. Do you think that President Trump has committed any crimes while he has been
president, or don't you think so?


Yes 45
No 43

(R: 12/79, D: 75/15, I: 46/38)

Wow! So a third of Republicans think Trump committed crimes yet still support him? That is so par for the course that it's depressing.

" both sides do it! Do you really think Democrats are angels? He was in a tough business, so what do you expect? Do you want a wimp in the White House?"

Or alternatively, " I really don't approve of Trumps ethics or behavior before he was president, but it is so important that we reverse years of liberal judges forcing their politically correct social experiments on ordinary Christian Americans oh, that it's too important to stop the liberals and the Socialists from running the country."

I've said it before and I've said it again Benedict Arnold betrayed General Washington in exchange for command of West Point. Judas betrayed Christ for 30 pieces of silver. The Republicans will betray America for tax cuts and a right-wing judiciary.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Monmouth, 802 adults including 746 RV (approval change from late Jan.)

Adults:

Approve 44 (+3)
Disapprove 51 (-3)

Should Trump be impeached and removed from office? (change from Nov.)

Yes 42 (+6)
No 54 (-5)


RV:

Approve 44
Disapprove 52

Should Trump be impeached and removed from office?

Yes 41
No 55

[pbrower2a]

http://www.dfmresearch.com/uploads/Minnesota_Rail_Survey__2019_March.pdf

Minnesota:

Trump --  favorable 38, unfavorable 57.

Klobuchar --  favorable 57, unfavorable 34.

It is favorability, so I cannot use it on the map -- although I suspect that it is close to approval. 

[pbrower2a]

Michigan:

31% re-elect Trump
16% will likely vote for someone else
49% will definitely vote for someone else

Quote
Self-described independent voters are driving down Trump's numbers. Among independents, 44 percent say they will definitely vote for someone else and 27 percent say they will consider backing another candidate, while only 18 percent say they would definitely vote to re-elect.

Meanwhile, 57 percent of women say they will vote for someone else and 17 percent say they will consider another candidate, compared to 41 percent of men who say they will vote for someone else and 14 percent who say they will consider someone else.

Bernie Porn, from EPIC-MRA:

Quote
"Everything is relative to who the opponent is, but a measure of where (Trump's) base is, is the re-elect question," said EPIC-MRA pollster Bernie Porn. "And it's much, much lower than it should be."

Quote
The poll shows that Trump's overall favorability rating has dropped from EPIC-MRA's last poll in October, from 43 percent favorable and 53 percent unfavorable then to 40 percent favorable and 55 percent unfavorable now.

Meanwhile, the percentage of those surveyed who rated Trump's performance as president dropped from 43 percent positive and 56 percent negative to 40 percent positive and 58 percent negative.

For the poll, EPIC-MRA of Lansing randomly surveyed 600 likely voters in Michigan between Sunday and Thursday of this week.The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

https://eu.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2019/03/08/donald-trump-michigan-poll/3095850002

My comment: 49% "definitely not" and even 1% who "likely will not" vote to re-elect Trump is over 50%. This is an excellent-good-fair-poor which I will not use on my map of approval. Unlike Florida or Texas, Trump van win re-election without Michigan -- but he has little wiggle room. Trump barely won the state in 2016, and if he loses Michigan by a large margin he is probably losing Florida as well, let alone Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Oh, would I like to see polls of Ohio and Pennsylvania!

Over a month old, but relevant: Marquette Law School poll, Wisconsin:


27% say they would definitely vote to re-elect Trump if the 2020 elections were held today
12% say they would probably vote to reelect him
39% total re-elect

  8% would probably vote for someone else
49% would definitely vote for someone else
57% total for someone else

Trump approval (among RV):

44% approve
52% disapprove



Without electoral votes and with no distinction for districts:

Others: Trump down 4 in AZ and down 6 in Nevada.


Someone else over 50%, Trump down by 4% or less
Someone else over 50%, Trump down by 5% to 8%
Someone else over 50%, Trump down by 9% or more

(PS: if you can find my last "To Trump or not to Trump" map, please recover it).  

[GeorgiaModerate]

A note on that Michigan poll: G. Elliott Morris says it has way too many college-educated respondents, and the pollster doesn't reweight. 

[pbrower2a]

A note on that Michigan poll: G. Elliott Morris says it has way too many college-educated respondents, and the pollster doesn't reweight. 

If you don't trust that poll, then here is another on Trump versus "someone else":



It does not change my map.

[BlueSwan]

He could nuke Denmark and get away with it.

Don't even joke about that. Bernie loves us so much that if he wins the nomination, Trump will probably decide that we are the true evil-doers of the world and the GOP will willingly follow, conveniently forgetting that we have been sticking to the US closer than Sean Hannity's mouth to Trump's d**k.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Monmouth, Mar. 1-4, 746 RV

Looking ahead to the 2020 election for President, do you think that Donald Trump should
be re-elected, or do you think that it is time to have someone else in office?

Trump 38
Someone else 57

This is identical to the result in their previous poll in January.

[pbrower2a]

Monmouth, nationwide:

Registered voters -- 57% want to have a change in the Presidency, and 38% want to stick with Trump.

Just under 4-in-  10 registered voters (38%) say that Trump should be re-elected in 2020. A majority of 57% say it is time to have someone new in the Oval Office.  These results are identical to a Monmouth poll taken in January and nearly identical to one taken in November. Looking at Trump’s re-election prospects by key parts of the country suggests there may be trouble ahead in areas that were critical to his victory three years ago. In approximately 300 “swing” counties, accounting for about one-fifth of the total U.S. electorate, only 33% back the incumbent’s re-election compared with 61% who want a change in the Oval Office.  In 2016, Hillary Clinton won the cumulative vote in these counties by just a single percentage point. In the nearly 2,500 “red” counties that Trump won by an average of 36 points in 2016, his current standing is a comparatively narrower 58% for re-election and 39% for someone new. In the remaining 360 “blue” counties that Clinton won by about 35 points on average, only 21% of voters support Trump for a second term while 74% want someone new.“Trump maintains his core base of support, but it’s not clear that he can still count on those swing voters that helped put him over the top in the Electoral College,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

...Trump does well among voters with less than a college degree (54-41, for whites without a college degree 55-41), is up 50-45 among men, is barely above water with white people (48-47), and is getting crushed with people with 4-year degrees (64-31 against for all American voters with such degrees and is getting crushed 59-36 among white people with college degrees).

[Dr. Arch]

Monmouth, nationwide:

Registered voters -- 57% want to have a change in the Presidency, and 38% want to stick with Trump.

Just under 4-in-  10 registered voters (38%) say that Trump should be re-elected in 2020. A majority of 57% say it is time to have someone new in the Oval Office.  These results are identical to a Monmouth poll taken in January and nearly identical to one taken in November. Looking at Trump’s re-election prospects by key parts of the country suggests there may be trouble ahead in areas that were critical to his victory three years ago. In approximately 300 “swing” counties, accounting for about one-fifth of the total U.S. electorate, only 33% back the incumbent’s re-election compared with 61% who want a change in the Oval Office.  In 2016, Hillary Clinton won the cumulative vote in these counties by just a single percentage point. In the nearly 2,500 “red” counties that Trump won by an average of 36 points in 2016, his current standing is a comparatively narrower 58% for re-election and 39% for someone new. In the remaining 360 “blue” counties that Clinton won by about 35 points on average, only 21% of voters support Trump for a second term while 74% want someone new.“Trump maintains his core base of support, but it’s not clear that he can still count on those swing voters that helped put him over the top in the Electoral College,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

...Trump does well among voters with less than a college degree (54-41, for whites without a college degree 55-41), is up 50-45 among men, is barely above water with white people (48-47), and is getting crushed with people with 4-year degrees (64-31 against for all American voters with such degrees and is getting crushed 59-36 among white people with college degrees).

That white college educated margin is insane. The suburbs are probably going to swing even harder in 2020.

[pbrower2a]

Some comments on the Monmouth poll:

1. Donald Trump needs a constituency of under-educated white voters. Those are heavily concentrated in the Mountain and Deep South, and also tend old. That constituency shrinks every year.

2. If anyone thinks that he can win over educated voters who happen to be white -- think again. People with college degrees know what the word Orwellian means, and Trump seems to fit that word well for a majority of them. People with college degrees may not comprise only smart people nor encompass all the smart people, but intelligence and gullibility seem to have a negative correlation.

Trump has said too many whoppers, and he has lost much credibility. Educated, intelligent people typically have the easiest means at their disposal for detecting falsehood, whether it comes from faulty reasoning, ignorance, or outright deceit: contradictions. Demagogues like Juan Peron and Donald Trump make contradictory statements all the time, worst of which come from saying one thing in one place and its opposite in another. No, the universe did not change; the audience was different.

3. This polling does not suggest to me that Trump will lose anything like 57-38-5. Clearly some of the 57% are political conservatives who will offer their message that they will vote for a conservative other than Trump. At most I expect the Democratic nominee to get at most 52% of the popular vote (which is less than Obama got in 2008, but there was an economic meltdown at the time) and is in fact less than Reagan got in 1980.

But this is what a 51-41-7 split (figuring that Anderson mostly won liberal-leaning voters in 1980) got Carter in 1980:

 

America is polarized enough that Teump is likely to get 80 electoral votes under the worst scenario for him.

So watch the Libertarian and perhaps the Reform vote in 2020. If those combine for 8%, we will see a landslide in the Electoral College for a Democrat -- any Democrat.  

 

[pbrower2a]

Monmouth, nationwide:

Registered voters -- 57% want to have a change in the Presidency, and 38% want to stick with Trump.

...Trump does well among voters with less than a college degree (54-41, for whites without a college degree 55-41), is up 50-45 among men, is barely above water with white people (48-47), and is getting crushed with people with 4-year degrees (64-31 against for all American voters with such degrees and is getting crushed 59-36 among white people with college degrees).

That white college educated margin is insane. The suburbs are probably going to swing even harder in 2020.

With these numbers he is going to lose by nearly Goldwater-McGovern numbers in suburban areas around places like Phoenix, Dallas-Fort Worth, Atlanta, Kansas City, St. Louis, and Omaha.

Note well: when Doug Jones won the special election for a Senate seat in Alabama, he won with huge margins in the best-educated parts of Alabama, including Huntsville (lots of people in rocket science) and Tuscaloosa (the flagship university)... 

Let's not forget that Rural America outside the Deep and Mountain South isn't a land of unsophisticated rubes. Lots of farmers and ranchers have college degrees, and I am tempted to believe that many of them despise a lying city-slicker like Donald Trump. His tariffs more than offset the minuscule tax breaks that he offers people not filthy rich. Stock villains do not become more attractive with time. (I've known people from New York City and surrounding areas, and most are not as full of themselves as Trump. Scheming, lying city-slickers who have a perverse sense of entitlement? Good reason exists for them taking their failed show on the road!)

Then there's foreign policy, usually a  bludgeon for conservatives against liberals. But this time, Barack Obama is the conservative, and Donald Trump is the dictator-coddling fool that the Nixon campaign told us what McGovern was.

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac has a poll of Florida, but so far it asks about Governor DeSantis (so far, effective: 59-17 approval/disapproval) and Rick Scott (former Governor, now US Senator, 42-38... the Senate is not a Governorship) both newly-elected, and Senator Marco Rubio (50-34), re-elected in 2016. 71% approve of the economy. I would say that Republicans can be very happy with Florida on support of a Governor and two Senators, and with perceptions of the economy.

Republicans do not do so well with some issues.   72% of Floridians are 'somewhat concerned or 'very concerned' about global warming. They disapprove of offshore oil drilling 64-29. They are against teachers having firearms, 57-40 and want stronger gun control, 59-37. These are more issues on which Donald Trump could do badly (my comment) because he is pro-gun and in denial of global warming. To be sure, Floridians are split (45-48) on whether global warming will have a negative impact within their lifetimes, and this has little to do with age. Is enough being done about climate change? 28 (doing enough or doing too much) to 63 (more to be done).

I would guess that Florida is happy with Republicans on the economy and immigration -- but as the President is a loud supporter of Big Oil and of the firearms industries, such might be troublesome for him in Florida. Watch for tomorrow's results, which will likely involve the only big election in 2020 in Florida: Donald Trump.

https://poll.qu.edu/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=2605

[pbrower2a]

The Quinnipiac poll offers favorability, and at 40-52 it is ugly. I do not show favorability polls even if I suspect that they are close  to approval. But I do show approval, which is at 41-53. This is far below the approval ratings for the recently elected Republican Governor and with Senator Marco Rubio. As I suggested above, the Governor and the Senators (the Senate is little like being a Governor, although most Presidents have been Governors or Senators).

Note, though:

A bare majority of Florida voters, 51 percent, say they definitely won't vote for President Donald Trump if he is the Republican candidate in the 2020 presidential race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Another 31 percent say they definitely would vote for the president and 14 percent say they would consider voting for him.

.....

President Trump's Approval

With a big thumbs down from women, Florida voters give President Trump a negative 41 - 53 percent approval rating. Women give Trump a negative 35 - 59 percent approval rating. Men are tied 47 - 47 percent.

The state most vulnerable to global warming dislikes the President's stances on global warming, guns, and offshore oil drilling. Republicans at the statewide level may be  able to dodge those issues at least for now, and I am not going to speculate whether they get away with that in 2020. But for the most obvious reasons possible (they are not up for re-election in 2020) the Governor and the two Republican Senators from Florida are safe for now.

To Trump or not to Trump, as I put it:

(Nothing really changes. I would still love to see a poll of the Keystone State!)

[pbrower2a]

First, the good news for President Trump about Florida: the asterisk that indicates that he is in range of winning Florida despite being below-even in approval is gone.

Now for the bad news: the approval is at the level at which even a spirited and campaign will not be enough for him to win the state a second time. Florida is in the zone of roughly 80 electoral votes, in big chunks except for two historically-wayward districts, between 295 and 375 electoral votes for the President's challenger. That is between Arizona and Texas in polling -- and I don't mean New Mexico, which votes more like a piece of New England than like Arizona or Texas.  

St. Leo U., Feb. 16-25, 1000 adults nationally and 500 Florida residents (change from Oct.)

National:

Approve 40 (-2)
Disapprove 58 (+8)

Florida:

Approve 45 (-3) strongly 27
Disapprove 53 (can't find previous disapproval) strongly 44

It looks as if he won't win his fourth-barest win, either, in 2020 with that disapproval number.  Florida looks about R+5 here with respect to the rest of the US.  

.....

Sometimes one gets to see two different polling takes on the same state within two weeks, and without an intervening event. News involving the President has been on the quiet side, But while Quinnipiac concurs with "St. Leo" on disapproval, it has even lower approval.

With a big thumbs down from women, Florida voters give President Trump a negative 41 - 53 percent approval rating. Women give Trump a negative 35 - 59 percent approval rating. Men are tied 47 - 47 percent.  

...and

A bare majority of Florida voters, 51 percent, say they definitely won't vote for President Donald Trump if he is the Republican candidate in the 2020 presidential race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Another 31 percent say they definitely would vote for the president and 14 percent say they would consider voting for him.

https://poll.qu.edu/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=2606

Disapproval matters more, but the map changes. Notice that "Definitely will not vote for Trump" is practically identical  to disapproval.  Does this President have any remaining reservoir of good will with the American electorate? Apparently not enough. Can he build some? It is almost certainly too late. The Trump Presidency is all about you-know-who, and it ain't you.

If anyone thinks, "But Obama got re-elected" -- Obama rationally countered the calumnies of his opponents on the way to re-election. Trump is getting it just as hard from Democrats as Obama got it from Republicans and their front groups. He is a delusional midget in contrast to Obama.  

With cumulative electoral vote totals in each category.

55% and higher 8
50-54% 9
49% or less and positive 38
tie (white)
44-49% and negative 96
40-43% 34
under 40%  122

An asterisk will be applied to any state in which the President's approval rating is above 43% for which the disapproval rating is 50% or higher.

No segregation of districts in Maine and Nebraska -- yet.

29 more states, and 231 electoral votes to go!


Trump, like Romney in 2012, can lose the electoral college while wining Florida. St. Leo shows Florida 5% more aligned with Trump than America as a whole -- but still a likely loss. The 53% disapproval sets a ceiling of 47% for the Trumpenstein monster in Florida.

Florida will not decide the Presidency in 2020.  I see Wisconsin as the tipping-point state in 2020, and there nothing seems to have gone well for Trump since the 2016 election. The incumbent Republican was defeated in a bid for a third term. The incumbent Democratic Senator won by a landslide. The majority of the House vote went to Democrats statewide even if gerrymandering aids the Republicans in maintaining their majority in the House delegation. Approval ratings and especially disapproval ratings have been dismal in Wisconsin for the President.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup, March 1-10, 1039 adults (prior poll Feb. 12-28)

Approve 39 (-4)
Disapprove 57 (+3)

[Crumpets]

Trump is back below -10 on RCP.

[pbrower2a]

North Carolina: Elon University:

choice between a Democrat, Trump, and someone else:

48 the Democrat
36 Trump
6 someone else
6 it depends
3 don't know

who will win

36 Trump
43 the Democrat
5 someone else
4 other/it depends
12 don't know

Nothing on approval of the President

https://www.elon.edu/u/elon-poll/wp-content/uploads/sites/819/2019/03/2019_03_14-ElonPoll_Report.pdf

Trump is not winning North Carolina with these numbers.

Mixed more, including e-mail

Because voting for a conservative alternative to Trump (I do not expect conservatives to vote for a liberal Democrat) into the sum of voters against Trump I am going to count such votes against Trump. No way does he win North Carolina with numbers like this.

To Trump or not to Trump, as I put it:

50% or more against Trump, margin 9% or higher
50% or more against Trump, margin 5% to 8%
50% or more against Trump, margin 4% or less

The usual margin of error is 4%, and twice that is not close.

[ProudModerate2]

Elon polls are about as useful as UNH New Hampshire polls so don't put stock in it

And would you put Rasmussen in that same ("useless") boat also?
Rasmussen's recent poll shows trump approval at 49 approve, 50 disapprove.

[pbrower2a]

Elon polls are about as useful as UNH New Hampshire polls so don't put stock in it

I have demonstrated my concern about the mixed-mode polling. There will be plenty more polls of North Carolina.

A 12% gap between "Generic Democrat" and Trump in re-elect versus reject might be an outlier, but not so slight an outlier that Trump supporters can brush this one off.

Trump wins North Carolina if the vote for the Democratic nominee is 45% or lower and there is no meaningful alternative to him on the Right side. I see Trump vulnerable to a Ross Perot or to even some conservative equivalent of John Anderson who allows conservatives to vote their values while rejecting both liberal ideology and the erratic Presidency of Donald Trump.

48% is enough  to win North Carolina for a Democrat if some conservative runs an unusually-effective Third Party or Independent campaign by recent standards. Trump makes such possible.

My "To Trump or not to Trump" maps suggest a Presidential collapse. They will until the President starts to undo the collapse.

[GeorgiaModerate]

PPP, March 13-14, 661 RV (prior poll Jan. 19-21, during shutdown)

Approve 42 (+2)
Disapprove 54 (-3)

2020 matchup:

Trump 41
Generic D 52

[Gass3268]

What's interesting to me is that while it's very obvious that Trump has recovered from the shutdown, he hasn't fully recovered. He's leveled out about 1-2 points worse than he was before the shutdown took off. It appears that there might have been permanent damage done as a result of the shutdown.

[GeorgiaModerate]

What's interesting to me is that while it's very obvious that Trump has recovered from the shutdown, he hasn't fully recovered. He's leveled out about 1-2 points worse than he was before the shutdown took off. It appears that there might have been permanent damage done as a result of the shutdown.

I've been thinking the same thing.

[BlueSwan]

What's interesting to me is that while it's very obvious that Trump has recovered from the shutdown, he hasn't fully recovered. He's leveled out about 1-2 points worse than he was before the shutdown took off. It appears that there might have been permanent damage done as a result of the shutdown.

I've been thinking the same thing.

Doubtful, since right after the shutdown we have had the national emergency which really is a much bigger scandal than the shutdown despite now showing the the polls. When people forget about the national emergency, which is unfortunately soon, Trump will probably rebound further, unless he does something else completey stupid, which of course is highly likely.

I would distinguish between his hard and soft support. His hard support is probably very steady while his soft support fluctuates with the scandals. A pretty large percentage of his soft support will probably hold their noses and vote for him regardless of any scandals, because they are tribalist republicans when all is said and done.

The democrats should ignore flucatuations in Trumps support and realize that IF DEMOCRATS STICK TOGETHER AND TURN OUT THEY WIN. It is really as simple as that. There are flat out more Democrats than Republicans at the moment and Trump is toxic to independents. It is NOT a coincidence that Democrats have won the public vote in every single presidential race since 1992 except for 2004 and since 1992 demographics have shifted massively to the democrats advantage.

The recipe is simple: Pick someone electable that doesn't completely scare away independents (ie. not a winger). Rally behind that person. Get the vote out. Win. If we pick someone like Harris or O'Rourke and the left realize that both of these candidates are absolutely acceptable (even if not their dream picks), then we win. Probably even decisively.