Trump approval ratings thread, 1.4

[Politician]

. But at the moment there's no way to spin this as anything other than a massive black eye for the Democrats.

Um, are you Chris Cillizza? Thanks for the expert take..

Just common sense. But you're welcome!

Gosh, take your Clinton Kaine avatar off your profile if you're going to associate it with nonsense takes like that. Its embarrassing.

I wasn't aware it was a requirement to suspend reality and replace it with flagrant partisan hackery in order to have voted for the Clinton/Kaine ticket.

You remind me of the people who unironically insisted Obama won the first debate in 2012 or thought the Comey letter would actually help Hillary, lol.

LOL, this already didn't age well.

[pbrower2a]

There's going to be a lot of tears flowing on Atlas when his approval rating doesn't change...

If they stay the same? They should. He's not directly responsible for the report. Barr is, and he is the one who would be thrown to the wolves* if something went wrong.

*Why 'wolves'? There is no record of a healthy wolf ever making an unprovoked attack upon a human being in North America. That's not to say that one can safely provoke a wolf, but I wouldn't do anything stupid to a dog, either. I once saw four medium-sized dogs charging a door to scare me off, suggesting that if I did not get away I might be dinner. They must have thought that I was a burglar and not a Census-taker. I could hear stripes forming on those dogs -- and dogs in no way resemble zebras.  

[Progressive Pessimist]

Now for one that's entirely post-"exoneration":

POLITICO / Morning Consult, March 25-26, 1978 RV

Approve: 42 (+1)
Disapprove: 55 (+1)

Strongly Approve: 24 (+3)
Strongly Disapprove: 42 (nc)

No sign of a bounce yet (or, if there is, it seems to be just movement from 'Somewhat Approve' to 'Strongly Approve'). However, it's only one poll, so I guess we'll have to see whether it's corroborated by other polls.

That's somewhat comforting. Perhaps it indicates that enough Americans truly don't care about the investigations. But yes, we should definitely wait for more polls similar to this before breathing a sigh of relief.

[forgotten manatee]

I wonder if President Donald J. Trump unleashed a massive rip roaring fart of relief upon hearing that he was getting out of this one too.

[pbrower2a]

I wonder if President Donald J. Trump unleashed a massive rip roaring fart of relief upon hearing that he was getting out of this one too.

I dunno... is that how mobsters act when they find that nobody dares press a case?

[Pericles]

Lol guess Trump isn't going to have an approval rating in the high 50s just because of a shady letter from his hand-picked AG.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I wonder if President Donald J. Trump unleashed a massive rip roaring fart of relief upon hearing that he was getting out of this one too.

I dunno... is that how mobsters act when they find that nobody dares press a case?

Congrats on 20K👏🏻

[American2020]

Despite report findings, almost half of Americans think Trump colluded with Russia: Reuters/Ipsos poll

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Nearly half of all Americans still believe President Donald Trump worked with Russia to interfere in the 2016 presidential election, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted after Special Counsel Robert Mueller cleared Trump of that allegation.

https://news.yahoo.com/despite-report-findings-almost-half-americans-think-trump-220818688.html

[GeorgiaModerate]

CNBC All-America Economic Survey (quarterly), March 18-21, 800 adults

Approve 40 (-1)
Disapprove 49 (+2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov (weekly), March 24-26, 1500 adults including 1249 RV

Adults:

Approve 43 (+4)
Disapprove 49 (-4)

Strongly approve 24 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 39 (-2)

RV:

Approve 46 (+4)
Disapprove 51 (-5)

Strongly approve 29 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 45 (-1)

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I'm pretty sure some of these polls just game their results to show "Expected" movement to prove they are offering an interesting service. No one's opinion could have possibly changed.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm pretty sure some of these polls just game their results to show "Expected" movement to prove they are offering an interesting service. No one's opinion could have possibly changed.

I also doubt there will be much movement either way.  The YouGov poll showed a bounce for Trump, but it tends to be fairly noisy.  The 538 average hasn't significantly changed (-11.0 today vs -10.8 prior to Barr's summary), but TBF there haven't been a lot of polls yet with sample periods post-summary.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Despite report findings, almost half of Americans think Trump colluded with Russia: Reuters/Ipsos poll

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Nearly half of all Americans still believe President Donald Trump worked with Russia to interfere in the 2016 presidential election, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted after Special Counsel Robert Mueller cleared Trump of that allegation.

https://news.yahoo.com/despite-report-findings-almost-half-americans-think-trump-220818688.html

Perhaps, unlike Reuters, some Americans can tell the difference between Special Counsel Mueller's as-yet unseen report, and a letter written by Trump's hand-picked AG?

[GeorgiaModerate]

GEM's comment on the YouGov poll:

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1110912806306619397

[GeorgiaModerate]

Now's your chance...


https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/1110595331551608838

[Progressive Pessimist]

Despite report findings, almost half of Americans think Trump colluded with Russia: Reuters/Ipsos poll

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Nearly half of all Americans still believe President Donald Trump worked with Russia to interfere in the 2016 presidential election, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted after Special Counsel Robert Mueller cleared Trump of that allegation.

https://news.yahoo.com/despite-report-findings-almost-half-americans-think-trump-220818688.html

I shall declare this "the email effect."

GEM's comment on the YouGov poll:

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1110912806306619397

Haha! What the hell? Why do they still hate him?

As for those other polls being posted, they seem to indicate a wash at best...and worst. I guess that's a bit reassuring.

[ProudModerate2]

GEM's comment on the YouGov poll:

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1110912806306619397

LOL.
trump voters ..... Ugggg!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Quinnipiac, March 21-25, 1358 RV

In the 2020 general election for president, if Donald Trump is the Republican
candidate, would you definitely vote for him, consider voting for him, or would you
definitely not vote for him?

Definitely vote 30
Consider voting 13
Definitely not 53

R: 77/16/5
D: 1/3/95
I: 21/21/54

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac, March 21-25, 1358 RV

In the 2020 general election for president, if Donald Trump is the Republican
candidate, would you definitely vote for him, consider voting for him, or would you
definitely not vote for him?

Definitely vote 30
Consider voting 13
Definitely not 53

R: 77/16/5
D: 1/3/95
I: 21/21/54

Polarized as America has been in recent years, any electoral result that gives the Democrat more than 53% of the popular vote in 2020 looks far-fetched. Some of those who will 'definitely not' vote for the re-election of President Trump are clearly conservative -- mostly independent voters. Except for the LBJ blowout of Goldwater in 1964, the highest percentage of the popular vote that a Democrat has gotten since 1944 was 52.80%

"Will not vote for Trump" includes some who will vote for a conservative as an independent or a third-party nominee.

Figuring that 2% who say that they will definitely not vote for Trump and 2% who say that they will consider voting for him will vote for right-leaning alternatives to Trump and that 2% of those who say that they will consider voting for Trump will vote for the Democratic nominee, then that would give a 53-4-43 split of the popular vote.
   

[Comrade Funk]

Trump job performance in Pennsylvania (Franklin & Marshall):

Excellent 18%
Good 16
Fair 13
Poor 53

https://t.co/ZNlBaBy1Lw

[GeorgiaModerate]

Pew Research, March 20-25, 1503 adults (prior poll Jan. 9-14)

Approve 40 (+3)
Disapprove 55 (-4)

Trump’s job rating was not significantly different in the days following the release of Barr’s report (March 24-25) than before his announcement (March 20-23).

[pbrower2a]

Trump job performance in Pennsylvania (Franklin & Marshall):

Excellent 18%
Good 16
Fair 13
Poor 53

https://t.co/ZNlBaBy1Lw

Treating the "fair" category as ambiguous because the word has some favorable connotations, that probably translates charitably to 41-53 in approval.

Even more telling:

One in three (36%) registered voters believes President Trump has done a good enough job to deserve re-election, while three in five (61%) voters say it is time for a change.

 Maybe a 41-53 spread that an Electric Green Flaming Polonium poll suggests if I assume that half the "fair" votes are approval is too generous.


To Trump or not to Trump, as I put it:

(Nothing really changes. I would still love to see a poll of the Keystone State!)


Well, we have one. It is not approval and disapproval (although I can guess), but it is "To Trump or not to Trump. Trump's four barest wins of 2016 reject him severely. 75 electoral votes that he had in 2016 seem to be gone.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here's another PA poll:

Pennsylvania: Emerson, March 26-28, 359 RV (caution: small sample size)

Approve 41
Disapprove 51

Biden 55, Trump 45
Sanders 55, Trump 45
Warren 52, Trump 48
Harris 51, Trump 48
O’Rourke 51, Trump 49

[pbrower2a]

ARG, New Hampshire:

34% approve, 58% disapprove.

https://americanresearchgroup.com/nhpoll/

The barest loss for Trump in 2016 looks like a double-digit loss in 2020. The map does not change at all for New Hampshire, but keep reading.

Trump is toxic in New Hampshire. Republican Governor Sununu is at 58-22 on approval and disapproval.

OK, so it is only four electoral votes. But we are accustomed to three consecutive Presidents winning re-election with electoral maps similar to those with which they got elected the first time. Two states and NE-02 switched in 2012; three states switched in 2004; five states switched in 1996.

I have yet to see any state going from H. Clinton to Trump. Two states would be enough to defeat Trump if the two are Florida and any state with nine or more electoral votes that voted against Trump goes against him. Three states would be enough if the three are Michigan, Pennsylvania, and anything else -- even ME-02 or NE-03.

Here's another PA poll:

Pennsylvania: Emerson, March 26-28, 359 RV (caution: small sample size)

Approve 41
Disapprove 51

Biden 55, Trump 45
Sanders 55, Trump 45
Warren 52, Trump 48
Harris 51, Trump 48
O’Rourke 51, Trump 49

-------------------

However large the field of potential Democratic nominees, the ideological differences don't seem so severe. As the field sorts itself out, the eventual nominee will probably end up with a spread like that of Biden or Sanders over Trump. I now have Pennsylvania, and this poll is good enough. Any residual doubt that I had about Pennsylvania sticking with Trump in 2020 is gone with the Franklin and Marshall and Emerson polls.

"Trump or not to Trump" is even worse for Trump in most states -- but "not Trump" could include some other expression of conservatism, and that is not shown in the binary matchups.    

Approval and disapproval ratings of Donald Trump:

With cumulative electoral vote totals in each category.

55% and higher 8
50-54% 9
49% or less and positive 38
tie (white)
44-49% and negative 91
40-43% 39
under 40%  122

An asterisk will be applied to any state in which the President's approval rating is above 43% for which the disapproval rating is 50% or higher.

No segregation of districts in Maine and Nebraska -- yet.

28 more states, and 211 electoral votes to go!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Marist, March 25-27, 938 adults including 834 RV.

Adults:

Approve 42
Disapprove 51

Strongly approve 26
Strongly disapprove 40

RV:

Approve 44
Disapprove 50

Strongly approve 28
Strongly disapprove 40

2020 (asked of RV):

Definitely vote for Trump 35
Definitely vote against 54