Trump approval ratings thread, 1.4

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/1026559859645394944

Holy crap

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/1026559859645394944

Holy crap

That is a considerable discrepancy. I wonder what an electoral map would look like in 2020 if these respective groups voted along those lines. Given polarization, I know that won't happen, but it would be interesting to see regardless.

At this point I almost expect a conservative alternative to Donald Trump to appear, even if only as a vanity campaign. It might do astonishingly well in picking off conservative votes. Democrats could end up with a 51-43-6 split of the Presidential vote.

I can play this game too.

"how narrow is the #Resistance base? in new American Barometer poll, Donald Trump's approval rating among ethnic minorities is 24% approve, 76% disapprove. Among all other Americans it's 57% approve, 43% disapprove.

I mean, that's still bad. LOL

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/1026559859645394944

Holy crap

That is a considerable discrepancy. I wonder what an electoral map would look like in 2020 if these respective groups voted along those lines. Given polarization, I know that won't happen, but it would be interesting to see regardless.

At this point I almost expect a conservative alternative to Donald Trump to appear, even if only as a vanity campaign. It might do astonishingly well in picking off conservative votes. Democrats could end up with a 51-43-6 split of the Presidential vote.

I can play this game too.

"how narrow is the #Resistance base? in new American Barometer poll, Donald Trump's approval rating among ethnic minorities is 24% approve, 76% disapprove. Among all other Americans it's 57% approve, 43% disapprove.

I mean, that's still bad. LOL

It also reflects Trump's (and that of Republicans in general), strong support among white voters, and the solid support of minorities for the Democratic Party. But 43% of white voters + 76% of minority voters would, in 2020, be enough to doom Trump's chances for reelection. That would be close to the percentages Obama earned in 2008.

It would be better than Obama 2008 since minorities will form a notably larger part of the electorate in 2020 than in 2008.

[Dr. Arch]

Trump's job approval is now a few tenths of a percentage point ahead of Reagan's at this point in his presidency:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo

job approval at this point in presidency:

Trump 41.4%
Reagan 41.1%
Carter 39.0%

Now he's ahead of Clinton at this point in his presidency too:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=297289.150

job approval at this point in presidency:

Trump 42.1%
Clinton 41.8%
Reagan 40.9%
Carter 39.9%

We’re much more polarized/tribal than we were back then

Don't forget poll quality/consistency has gone down quite a bit too.

[Dr. Arch]

Trump becoming beloved by the American people.

Does Torie need to give you another smackdown?

Torie should just straight out kick him out. We've seen this tired act one too many times now.

[Dr. Arch]

Virginia: Roanoke College, Aug. 12-19, 512 likely voters (live caller poll)

Approve 32
Disapprove 53

Holy cheese crackers. I would expect those numbers from NJ 

[Dr. Arch]

I do find it amazing how Bush's approval rating was over 20 pts lower than a guy who has all three networks and 2/3 cable networks talking scandal, impeachment, Watergate-style stories on him 24/7. In todays day and age, I see 44-50% approvals and I kinda shrug and say, "Meh". If it was 22% or 24%, then I'd be like, "Holy cow."

The difference we had actual dumpster fires going on in 2007-2008 and not manufactured ones. The economy was going down the toilet, the two wars were at the height of their unpopularity, and Capitol Hill gridlock was tighter than a bad back. We had much bigger problems at the end of Bush's administration than the president using naughty words on Twitter or eating two pieces of cake instead of one.

"Two pieces of cake intead of one"... As far as disingenuous and misrepresentative statements go, this one takes the cake (pun intended). There are far larger ethical and human rights concerns with this farce of a president than what food he puts into his mouth.

[Dr. Arch]

GA is looking really ugly for Trump. I'd like to see some NC numbers alongside it.

[Dr. Arch]

So when are his approvals going down into the 20s?

The economy would have to sink for something like that, and I'd rather not have that happen.

[Dr. Arch]

The economy would have to sink for something like that, and I'd rather not have that happen.

The economy is horrible right now.

I mean, something 2008 levels bad.

[Dr. Arch]

Trump is at -18(!!) in AZ with likely voters??

[Dr. Arch]

Iowa: Selzer, Sep. 17-20, 801 adults (change from Jan.)

https://amp.desmoinesregister.com/amp/1408864002

Approve 39 (-5)
Disapprove 56 (+5)

Geez.

Looks like Iowa has had it.

[Dr. Arch]

New Jersey: FDU, Sep. 26-30, 746 registered voters including 508 likely voters

RV: Approve 33, Disapprove 58

LV: 38/59

Yikes

[Dr. Arch]

Pew Research American Trends Panel: Sep. 24 - Oct. 7, 10683 adults (change from Jul/Aug)

Approve 38 (-2)
Disapprove 61 (+2)

Wow, that's ugly.

[Dr. Arch]

Pew Research American Trends Panel: Sep. 24 - Oct. 7, 10683 adults (change from Jul/Aug)

Approve 38 (-2)
Disapprove 61 (+2)

Wow, that's ugly.

Ugly for Trump maybe. Those numbers are beautiful to me.

Ditto. You know what I meant. 

[Dr. Arch]

Charlottesville 2, right-wing terrorist boogaloo

And at the worst possible time for him. He won't recover nearly enough before midterms, and that's going to reflect on results, especially through early voting this week.

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1070698825571012613

"Judge's"

"Military, Vets, etc."

"75%" approval

The guy is insane.

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/AJD716/status/1079467566056308739

New England, the West, and the Upper Midwest look very ugly for him.

[Dr. Arch]

GBA Strategies, Dec. 14-19, 1001 RV (1-month change)

Approve 38 (-4)
Disapprove 55 (nc)

Strongly approve 18 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 42 (-1)

Approval by party:

R: 81/15 (was 87/11), strongly 41/6 (was 45/5)
I: 19/54 (was 36/55), strongly 5/29 (was 12/34)
D: 9/91 (was 8/91), strongly 2/81 (was 2/78)

And the tanking continues.

[Dr. Arch]

What i'm always looking in the polls is his standing with independents. i don't care about the topline because sometimes it's just up and down with republicans and we know than in the end almost all of them will vote for him anyway .

My advice is only look at independents and compare with 2016 and 2018 numbers.

Thats really only what matters for 2020.

From this angle, Trump is already toast. His standing with independents has gone from bad to horrible to abysmal with every passing year of his administration, and we have already seen that there is little he would be willing to do to change that.

[Dr. Arch]

Colorado: DFM research, Jan. 2-5 550 adults

Although it is a while away, suppose the election was today for President of the United
States. Would you vote for Donald Trump the Republican or would you vote for the
Democratic Party candidate?

Trump 36
D candidate 50

Holy crap!

[Dr. Arch]

Throw another log on the fire:

Marist, Jan. 10-13, 1023 adults including 873 RV (prior poll Nov. 28-Dec. 4)

Adults:

Approve 39 (-3)
Disapprove 53 (+4)

Strongly approve 24 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 45 (+8)

RV:

Approve 40 (-3)
Disapprove 54 (+5)

Strongly approve 26 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+7)

A complete meltdown of approval numbers

[Dr. Arch]

Just for laughs...

New York State only: Quinnipiac, Jan. 16-21, 929 RV (change from July)

Approve 29 (-7)
Disapprove 67 (+10)

Holy hell... it's -19 in upstate.

It should be similar in Wisconsin, which is very bad news bears for Trump.

[Dr. Arch]

Here's the AP poll.  Jan. 16-20, 1062 adults (1-month change)

Approve 34 (-8)
Disapprove 65 (+9)

Strongly approve 18 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 53 (+11)

AP has always had poor numbers for Trump, but that change from last month is a 'wow'.

17 point shift

[Dr. Arch]

This whole wall hostage stunt poisoned his already horrific numbers. We can only hope they stay there or go lower as he continues to threaten to continue doing the same thing.