Trump approval ratings thread, 1.4

[Progressive Pessimist]

Yep he is celebrating his 50% Rasmussen approval ratings on Instagram.

"Stay humble." "Which means it's really 65%." How f***ing delusional are these people!? And that includes Trump.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Trump's job approval is now a few tenths of a percentage point ahead of Reagan's at this point in his presidency:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo

job approval at this point in presidency:

Trump 41.4%
Reagan 41.1%
Carter 39.0%

Countdown to "Trump is more popular than Reagan!" hot takes in 3...2...1...

This disgusts me, and I don't even like Reagan!

[Progressive Pessimist]

New Jersey: Quinnipiac, Aug. 15-20, 908 registered voters (live caller poll)

Approve 33
Disapprove 63

Worth noting: Menendez only leads the Senate race 43-37 in this poll.

Those are the type of numbers that result in a 11-1 Democratic congressional deleagtion.

Please let it be so!

As for Menendez, this poll confirms my suspicions that he will win, but by a pretty embarrassing margin.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Virginia: Roanoke College, Aug. 12-19, 512 likely voters (live caller poll)

Approve 32
Disapprove 53

Holy cheese crackers. I would expect those numbers from NJ 

According to that last poll of New Jersey, his approval rating is actually worse in Virginia! Granted, his disapproval in New Jersey is almost ten points higher. Either way, statewide Virginia seems out of reach for Trump and the GOP.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Pew Research American Trends Survey, July 30 - Aug. 12, 4581 adults (change from Feb. -- this is a semiannual survey)

Approve 40 (+2)
Disapprove 59 (-1)

Strongly approve 31 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 48 (nc)

Strongle disapprove almost a majority

That is a huge level of discontent -- nearly half of the public considers him profoundly offensive without an economic downturn or a military debacle.

AP/NORC, Aug. 16-20, 1055 adults (change from June)

Approve 38 (-3)
Disapprove 60 (+3)

Strongly approve 18 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 43 (+1)

At this point, a majority of Americans are political dissidents. It is hard to imagine any President reaching this level of unpopularity so early in his Presidency. Many who held their noses and voted for Trump now regret that they can smell what they voted for, 24 hours a day and seven days a week unless they have and use passports.

I hope so. If Trump loses his soft support, he's done. I still worry that he could coast on low expectations or by denigrating his eventual 2020 opponent enough, though.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Pew Research American Trends Survey, July 30 - Aug. 12, 4581 adults (change from Feb. -- this is a semiannual survey)

Approve 40 (+2)
Disapprove 59 (-1)

Strongly approve 31 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 48 (nc)

Strongle disapprove almost a majority

That is a huge level of discontent -- nearly half of the public considers him profoundly offensive without an economic downturn or a military debacle.

AP/NORC, Aug. 16-20, 1055 adults (change from June)

Approve 38 (-3)
Disapprove 60 (+3)

Strongly approve 18 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 43 (+1)

At this point, a majority of Americans are political dissidents. It is hard to imagine any President reaching this level of unpopularity so early in his Presidency. Many who held their noses and voted for Trump now regret that they can smell what they voted for, 24 hours a day and seven days a week unless they have and use passports.

I hope so. If Trump loses his soft support, he's done. I still worry that he could coast on low expectations or by denigrating his eventual 2020 opponent enough, though.

I worry about the help he will receive from Russia.  Depending on the closeness of the vote, Russian interference on behalf of Trump could certainly have an impact again.

That goes without saying. But the Russian dissemination of fake news and manipulation wouldn't be able to work if people weren't still willing to give Trump a pass. That's the real problem.

[Progressive Pessimist]

The bell tolls for the GOP (and Trump):

https://twitter.com/evansiegfried/status/1035200370346287104

https://twitter.com/evansiegfried/status/1035205969243004928

https://twitter.com/evansiegfried/status/1035208739270402048

NBC millennial poll survey

Ouch. The Republicans should never be having a super-majority of whites disapproving of them for anything.

[Progressive Pessimist]

A few other notes from the ABC/WP poll:

- This is Trump's worst showing to date in this poll (previously he's been at -22 a few times)

- 49% say Congress should start impeachment proceedings, 46% say no

- 63% support Mueller probe (52% strongly support), 29% oppose

I'm impressed that nearly half of all Americans already support impeachment -and this is before Mueller (or rather Rosenstein) has released his final report to Congress.  

If Mueller finds evidence of conspiracy and money laundering, and Trump's clear involvement in those crimes, imagine where the numbers will be then... 

That won't translate enough to the necessary Republican votes for conviction in the Senate though. So really, it doesn't matter.

[Progressive Pessimist]

A bunch of state polls from Fox News, all conducted Sep. 8-11.


Missouri

808 RV: Approve 49, Disapprove 48 (strongly approve 27, strongly disapprove 36)
675 LV: 49/48 (strongly 29/37)


Indiana

804 RV: 52/46 (strongly 26/34)
677 LV: 54/44 (strongly 30/34)


North Dakota

804 RV: 54/42 (strongly 33/33)
701 LV: 54/42 (strongly 35/34)


Tennessee

809 RV: 56/39 (strongly 30/30)
686 LV: 58/38 (strongly 31/30)


Arizona

801 RV: 48/49 (strongly 27/38)
710 LV: 49/49 (strongly 28/38)

I'm not sure what to make of these, but if that Missouri number is accurate-OUCH! Those probably made McCaskill smile.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Trump approvals in some Sun Belt states, per Ipsos:

Arizona: 45% approve-53% disapprove

California: 36%-63%

Florida: 47%-53%

Nevada: 49%-49%

Texas: 47%-53%

Source: http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/new-polls-tight-senate-races-across-the-sun-belt/

Nevada being weird, or polled incorrectly, as always.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Iowa: Selzer, Sep. 17-20, 801 adults (change from Jan.)

https://amp.desmoinesregister.com/amp/1408864002

Approve 39 (-5)
Disapprove 56 (+5)

Geez.

Looks like Iowa has had it.

I sure hope so.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Aside from election hacking and Russian interference, how on earth can a president be this unpopular and win reelection?

Run against an equally unpopular candidate..

Or find a way to make that candidate equally unpopular and coast on low expectations.

[Progressive Pessimist]

New Jersey's seem especially high to me?

Yes, it's not in line with other recent results from NJ.  Either Trump's standing has improved there or this is a bit of an outlier.

Hugin coattails! No, not really. It's definitely an outlier.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Pew Research American Trends Panel: Sep. 24 - Oct. 7, 10683 adults (change from Jul/Aug)

Approve 38 (-2)
Disapprove 61 (+2)

Wow, that's ugly.

Ugly for Trump maybe. Those numbers are beautiful to me.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Fox News poll (so take it with huge rain of salt)

47 (+3)
51 (-1)

I believe it. Never underestimate the stupidity of America.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Is Donald the new Teflon President?

He always has been.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Im glad Rasmussen is giving Trump fake polls. It will make election night all the more glorious as Trump is probably deluding himself and totally unprepared for the GOP losses that await him

Well, if the Republicans have a good night with the Senate elections, which is likely, I'm sure that will be enough for him to warrant bragging even if every other election is a catastrophe for his party.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Remember how bad his favorables were in 2016? Bad approvals don't mean sh**t if the media decides to EMAILLLSS the Democrat in 2020.

Or Hamilton tickets.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Agreed it's one poll, but this is an interesting take:

https://twitter.com/BenjySarlin/status/1067129697618853889

I don't think this will have as much of an impact as it seems. They'll look at the Senate and at some of the gubernatorial races where Democratic rising stars were defeated, and polish the turd of his party leadership with that.

[Progressive Pessimist]

This is just one poll.

Selzer is good, but you are very right. I remember back in September when Selzer had the generic ballot at D+2 and alot of people were freaking out. But as we know, the results weren't +2 and that the average was very accurate. So what I'm trying to say is, put the poll in the average and dont worry too much about individual outliers.

They also had Hubbell leading Reynolds.

[Progressive Pessimist]

What is ‘presidential harassment’?

Truth.

[Progressive Pessimist]

It is as if he is being whittled back down to the 35-40% of the electorate who represents his alt-right base.

That would be for the best. His often swayed-back soft supporters are probably the worst people in the country. At least his cultists have conviction.

[Progressive Pessimist]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/19/politics/poll-of-the-week-trump-unsuccessful-president-record/index.html

He doesn't have to bring his up. He just has to bring theirs down.

Exactly. That's why it's foolish to ever count him out. I won't feel confident about him losing until election day 2020 if the Democrat attains 270 electoral votes.

[Progressive Pessimist]

A state that could well matter in 2020, one that Trump really must win.

Florida, Mason-Dixon: 47-50 approval vs. disapproval.

Re-elect 45%. Replace 46%. Not sure 9%.

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000168-7cef-de11-af7d-feff7b080001

Trump approval:

With cumulative electoral vote totals in each category.

55% and higher
50-54%
49% or less and positive
tie (white)
44-49% and negative 80
40-43% 13
under 40%  43

An asterisk will be applied to any state in which the President's approval rating is above 43% for which the disapproval rating is 50% or higher.

No segregation of districts in Maine and Nebraska -- yet.

40 more states, and 409 electoral votes to go!

Trump is only down in 3 in FL, while down 20 nationally. FL is a pretty deplorable state.

My favorite gif ever!

[Progressive Pessimist]

His soft supporters are actually worse than his base. They're the ones that helped him win, and they're the ones who enable him and normalize him. I hope they've learned and received a serious case of buyer's remorse.