Trump approval ratings thread, 1.4

[GeorgiaModerate]

Per DKE - Looks like Gallup has POTUS at

40A (-2)
55D (+1)

I do not have a link.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/203207/trump-job-approval-weekly.aspx (your numbers are correct).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Axios/SurveyMonkey, July 25-27, 2509 adults including 2225 registered voters (this is not the SurveyMonkey weekly tracker)

Among adults:

Approve 43 (strongly 25)
Disapprove 55 (strongly 45)

GCB: D 49, R 38

Among RV:

Approve 45 (strongly 28)
Disapprove 55 (strongly 46)

GCB: D 52, R 42

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump 46/49 in Georgia.

You know the joke about Georgia, don't you? It's that Atlanta is a very sophisticated city surrounded by Georgia. A similar joke can be made of Chicago and Illinois or (almost) Indianapolis and Indiana.

I've seen a T-shirt that says "Atlanta: an island in a sea of rednecks."

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos, July 26-30, 1873 adults

Approve 42 (nc)
Disapprove 54 (+1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico, July 26-30, 1993 registered voters.

Approve 43 (-1)
Disapprove 52 (nc)

Strongly approve 21 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 39 (+1)

GCB: D 44 (+3), R 37 (-1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ohio CD-12: Monmouth, July 26-31, 512 registered voters (change from last month).

Approve 46 (-2)
Disapprove 49 (+2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov, July 29-31, 1500 adults including 1222 registered voters.

Among all adults:

Approve 39 (-2)
Disapprove 51 (+1)

Strongly approve 22 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 41 (+2)

Among RV:

Approve 43 (nc)
Disapprove 53 (-1)

Strongly approve 27 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 44 (nc)

GCB (RV only): D 44 (nc), R 40 (+2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here is some partial polling data from Kansas:

Question 2: Do you approve or disapprove of the job performance of President Donald Trump?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Not bad -- until you see the crosstabs!

It's 64-29 among Kansas Republicans, and 50-50 among libertarians.


No mention of Democrats. Telling, but obviously incomplete.
 

http://winwithjmc.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Kansas-Executive-Summary-V2-Release-Version.pdf

Well, it's a Republican primary poll:

Question 1: Do you plan to vote in the August 7 Republican primary? (Those who do not plan to vote are excluded from taking the rest of the survey)

[GeorgiaModerate]

FWI Trump’s at 50/49 in Rasmussen. You may now point and laugh

If they ever wonder why no one is donating to their GoFundMe, its that.

I'm surprised Trump hasn't tweeted about this yet.

[GeorgiaModerate]

SurveyMonkey weekly tracker, July 26-Aug 1, 9275 adults including 8161 registered voters

Among adults:

Approve 44 (+1)
Disapprove 54 (-1)

Strongly approve 26 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 43 (-1)

Among RV:

Approve 46 (+2)
Disapprove 54 (-1)

Strongly approve 28 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 44 (-2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

FWI Trump’s at 50/49 in Rasmussen. You may now point and laugh

If they ever wonder why no one is donating to their GoFundMe, its that.

Wasn’t Rasmussen the most accurate poll of the 2016 election?

No, they werent. I'm not getting into this stupid fight with you again.

Yes they were.

Then why did you ask?

And PPP was the most accurate pollster in 2012.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

But if Rasmussen's record in 2016 is that significant, consider this: for most of the campaign, they (virtually alone among pollsters) showed a significant Trump lead in the PV; it was only at the very end that they came around to a small Clinton lead that was close to the final margin.  Therefore, we can reasonably conclude that Rasmussen is only accurate at the end of a campaign, and that earlier in a campaign they significantly overestimate the Republican!

(I wrote that as a snark, but considering that Ras is currently a very Trump-friendly outlier compared to almost all other polls, there may be a grain of truth in it.)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Well, the 50% approval didn't last long.  Ras is back to 48/50 today, the same as Tuesday and Wednesday.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos/Reuters, July 29-Aug. 2, 1583 adults

Approve 40 (-2)
Disapprove 56 (+3)

[GeorgiaModerate]

IBD/TIPP, July 26 - Aug. 2, 939 adults (change from late June)

Approve 41 (nc)
Disapprove 53 (-1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

IBD/TIPP, July 26 - Aug. 2, 939 adults (change from late June)

Approve 40 (-1)
Disapprove 56 (+2)

The link says its 41/50.

Hmm...I got the numbers from 538's database -- which now says 41/53 (which would be nc/-1).  I'll update my earlier post.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump's job approval is now a few tenths of a percentage point ahead of Reagan's at this point in his presidency:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo

job approval at this point in presidency:

Trump 41.4%
Reagan 41.1%
Carter 39.0%

Countdown to "Trump is more popular than Reagan!" hot takes in 3...2...1...

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup weekly:

Approve 41 (+1)
Disapprove 54 (-1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Democracy Corps (D), July 19-26, 1003 registered voters

Approve 40 (strongly 27)
Disapprove 56 (strongly 47)

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/1026559859645394944

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov, August 5-7, 1500 adults including 1289 registered voters

Among all adults:

Approve 40 (+1)
Disapprove 49 (-2)

Strongly approve 22 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 40 (-1)

Among RV:

Approve 44 (+1)
Disapprove 51 (-2)

Strongly approve 29 (+2)
Strongl disapprove 44 (nc)

GCB (Rv only): D 44 (nc), R 41 (+1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico, August 2-6.  1994 registered voters.

Approve 43 (nc)
Disapprove 52 (nc)

Strongly approve 22 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 39 (nc)

GCB: D 42 (-2), R 36 (-1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Zogby, August 6-8, 1016 likely voters (change from June).  No information provided on their likely voter screen.

Approve 46 (+2)
Disapprove 51 (-1)

Strongly approve 25 (+4)
Strongly disapprove 39 (-2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

SurveyMonkey weekly tracker, August 2-8, 17738 adults including 15740 registered voters.  (This continues to be very stable.)

Among all adults:

Approve 44 (nc)
Disapprove 54 (nc)

Strongly approve 27 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 43 (nc)

Among RV:

Approve 45 (-1)
Disapprove 54 (nc)

Strongly approve 29 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 44 (nc)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos/Reuters, August 5-9, 1658 adults

Approve 42 (nc)
Disapprove 54 (+1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup weekly

Approve 39 (-2)
Disapprove 56 (+2)

This is the first approval below 40 in this poll since April 22 (38/57).