Trump approval ratings thread, 1.4

[ProudModerate2]

... Marist asks the question "Will you vote to re-elect President Trump or will you vote against re-electing him in 2020?", as Marist did for Arizona, Florida, and Ohio. The answer came to 35-57 in Arizona, 37-54 in Florida, and 34-58 in Ohio.

Wow.
I must have missed those numbers when they were first released.
Are the numbers really that high? That's huge!

[ProudModerate2]

Trump at 36-60 approval in new Washington Post/ABC News poll

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WaPo seems to have been one of the harder polls from Trump this year.

Indeed. Could be a leading indicator of what to expect in other polls, though.

[ProudModerate2]

Trump at 36-60 approval in new Washington Post/ABC News poll

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https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1035717747936768000

[ProudModerate2]

CNN:
Approval: 36% (-6)
Disapproval: 58% (+5)

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2018/09/10/politics/cnn-poll-trump-approval-independents/index.html?__twitter_impression=true

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That's amazing.

Huge!
If other polls show similar massive independent disapproval, then the Dem House gains will be larger than what I thought they would be.

[ProudModerate2]

https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/11/politics/trump-approval-rating-dropped/index.html

[ProudModerate2]

... For comparison:

This week: 39/56
Last week: 41/55
2 weeks ago: 43/51

People are starting to wake-up.
Hopefully this trend of trump's political demise continues through 2020.

[ProudModerate2]

https://twitter.com/AJD716/status/1079467566056308739

When President Trump is even in Georgia in approval and disapproval  (no Democratic nominee has won the  state since 1992) and Texas (no Democratic nominee has won the state since 1976), he is in deep trouble. 

[ProudModerate2]

Trump approval:

Oh. I like the colors so far.

[ProudModerate2]

If you head on over to RCP, you'll see Trump's net approval has declined 5 points since before the shutdown.

It has sharply turned.

[ProudModerate2]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1086053873700225024

I like the trend.
But not at the expense of the federal workers and this unnecessary Trump-Shutdown.

[ProudModerate2]

At fivethirtyeight both Trumps approval and disapproval are at their worst for Trump since last january. We are approaching 2017 territory.

[ProudModerate2]

A state that could well matter in 2020, one that Trump really must win.

Florida, Mason-Dixon: 47-50 approval vs. disapproval.

Re-elect 45%. Replace 46%. Not sure 9%.

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000168-7cef-de11-af7d-feff7b080001

Trump approval:

With cumulative electoral vote totals in each category.

55% and higher
50-54%
49% or less and positive
tie (white)
44-49% and negative 80
40-43% 13
under 40%  43

An asterisk will be applied to any state in which the President's approval rating is above 43% for which the disapproval rating is 50% or higher.

No segregation of districts in Maine and Nebraska -- yet.

40 more states, and 409 electoral votes to go!

Trump is only down in 3 in FL, while down 20 nationally. FL is a pretty deplorable state.

[ProudModerate2]

For a laugh:

California: Quinnipiac, Jan. 30-Feb. 4, 912 RV

Approve 28
Disapprove 67

The man is pure scum and we know that quite well here in Cali.

[ProudModerate2]

... Every state in white is a possible loss for the President.

In all honesty, I would be happy if he just lost all those states in pink.
But having some of the states in white go to Biden, wouldn't hurt.

[ProudModerate2]

... Every state in white is a possible loss for the President.

In all honesty, I would be happy if he just lost all those states in pink.
But having some of the states in white go to Biden, wouldn't hurt.

He will not even come close to losing Missouri, Texas, or Utah. The other ones in white can flip, but only if absolutely everything goes right for the strongest Democratic ticket possible. So yeah, I agree. I'd be content if he just lost the pink states too.

...
5. Texas -- the suburbs of Dallas, Fort Worth, and Houston are filling with college-educated people who can offset the right-wing drift in the Panhandle and East Texas, not growth areas. The Mexican-American electorate is growing rapidly, and Trump has found ways to offend its cultural conservatism.

I wonder how much having Beto O'Rourke on the ticket (as the VP candidate) would have in Texas.
He ran a pretty-damn good race in Texas against Cruz.
Could the Dems take Texas with him on the ticket?

[ProudModerate2]

(Paging Mr. Brower.  Please report to your computer.)

Gallup Trump approvals in all 50 states

Cautionary note: this data was gathered throughout the whole of 2018, so take it with a grain of salt.  But it's a lot better than no data.  Summary:

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Very interesting.
Thanks for posting this.

[ProudModerate2]

Elon polls are about as useful as UNH New Hampshire polls so don't put stock in it

And would you put Rasmussen in that same ("useless") boat also?
Rasmussen's recent poll shows trump approval at 49 approve, 50 disapprove.

[ProudModerate2]

GEM's comment on the YouGov poll:

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1110912806306619397

LOL.
trump voters ..... Ugggg!

[ProudModerate2]

Quinnipiac-NYC:

Approve: 26
Disapprove: 71

The Bronx: 22/74
Brroklyn: 32/64
Manhattan: 19/81
Queens: 21/73
Staten Island: 47/52

It pleases me to see how trump's home town of NYC hates that MotherF'er to the max.

[ProudModerate2]

Net approval map from Morning Consult for March 2019

I do not have approve/disapprove numbers, so these are hardly comparable to approval and disapproval. A +5 net approval or a -5% disapproval means far more at a 52-47 split than at 47-42 split. This does not supplant my earlier maps.  I assume that DC is extremely hostile to Trump due to its demographics.

https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/

maroon 20% or higher net  disapproval  158
red 11% to 20% net disapproval  75
pink 6% to 10% net disapproval 43
white 1% to 5% net disapproval 60
light blue tie to 5% net approval 97
blue 6% to 10% net approval 26
navy 11%+ net approval (I see no reason to color this in)

Although net disapproval is not as reliable a predictor of a Trump loss as is 100-disapproval, it is relevant.  I an astonished to see Pennsylvania in the third category, but a 7% negative edge is decisive unless the Democrats nominate someone with severe and obvious flaws. The white category, which I normally use for the zone of equal chance or a tie, gives a Democrat an edge even if it contains Virginia (4% is the usual margin of error). This category includes Florida and Ohio.

Indiana is a real shocker, as it looks on the fringe of contention. Then again, Obama did win Indiana in 2008. As a general  rule, a Republican needs to be winning Indiana by a double-digit margin to have a real chance of winning nationwide.

Hahaha, his approval is undeniably worse than that in Virginia.

The States in white are still (pretty much) a net disapproval.
So if the 2020 election went down with all the maroon, red, pink and white going for the Dem's, that would be a huge win.

PS: I foresee that the State that will be of most interest in watching in 2020, will be Arizona.