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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  Florida Atlantic Univ. poll: Scott +4
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Author Topic: Florida Atlantic Univ. poll: Scott +4  (Read 2150 times)
brand_allen
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« on: July 25, 2018, 04:50:41 pm »

Link: https://business.fau.edu/departments/economics/business-economics-polling/bepi-polls/bepi-polls-2018/florida-primaries-heat-up.php

Field Dates: July 20-21, 2018
Sample: Registered Voters

Scott: 44%
Nelson: 40%
(no change from their previous poll in May)

Nelson approval
Approve: 37%
Disapprove: 32%

Scott approval:
Approve: 50%
Disapprove: 32%

Trump approval
Approve: 41%
Disapprove: 47%
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Pittsburgh For Kamala
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« Reply #1 on: July 25, 2018, 04:53:52 pm »
« Edited: July 25, 2018, 06:55:28 pm by PittsburghSteel »

I find it hard to believe Nelson is trailing with all of those approval ratings...

EDIT: I confused Scott and Nelson's approval numbers...
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Devils30
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« Reply #2 on: July 25, 2018, 05:09:38 pm »

Florida is the #1 state by far for low quality polling
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Bagel23
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« Reply #3 on: July 25, 2018, 05:13:38 pm »

I find it hard to believe Nelson is trailing with all of those approval ratings...

I mean sure, Nelson can win, but Scott edging out by a point or two is not hard to believe at all at this point.
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jfern
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« Reply #4 on: July 25, 2018, 05:15:02 pm »

Florida is the #1 state by far for low quality polling

There are other states with polling issues. Alaska, Hawaii, Nevada, Michigan, and New Jersey come to mind.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #5 on: July 25, 2018, 06:52:54 pm »

I think Nelson pulls it out at end, but McCaskill maynot.
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superbudgie1582
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« Reply #6 on: July 25, 2018, 06:57:57 pm »

Florida is the #1 state by far for low quality polling

There are other states with polling issues. Alaska, Hawaii, Nevada, Michigan, and New Jersey come to mind.

New Jersey is fine for the most part. Monmouth is certainly better than Fairleigh Dickinson and Rutgers in the polling department, but none are Florida level bad.
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yeah_93
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« Reply #7 on: July 25, 2018, 07:23:39 pm »

Trash poll?
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #8 on: July 25, 2018, 07:30:54 pm »

Florida is the #1 state by far for low quality

I know it's your home state, and I have a lot of family that live there, but I fixed your quote to accurately reflect my feelings towards it.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #9 on: July 25, 2018, 07:59:46 pm »


The poll itself says that Graham is viewed favorably, she has a good chance of beating DeSantis than Putnam and then Nelson will win
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KingSweden
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« Reply #10 on: July 25, 2018, 08:07:54 pm »


FAU is meh. Not great, not garbage.

These numbers are, I believe, identical to what they found some time ago - which IMO is a more interesting data point than the top lines.
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You're Still Going to Vote for Biden
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« Reply #11 on: July 25, 2018, 08:17:29 pm »

I wish people would poll other states. It is pretty clear that the current state of the race is a narrow Scott lead. Poll closer to EDay.
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BBD
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« Reply #12 on: July 25, 2018, 08:40:44 pm »

Bill's clearly saving the big guns for October.
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Pericles
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« Reply #13 on: July 25, 2018, 10:15:42 pm »

I still struggle to see how Nelson loses in this environment, especially since he won by two landslides and Scott barely won, and Democratic incumbents in other narrow Trump win states are running away with it. I won't dismiss it out of hand, but it is confusing.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #14 on: July 25, 2018, 10:18:07 pm »

I still struggle to see how Nelson loses in this environment, especially since he won by two landslides and Scott barely won, and Democratic incumbents in other narrow Trump win states are running away with it. I won't dismiss it out of hand, but it is confusing.

The Criminal was unpopular in 2010 and 2014, which was why he only barely won despite the waves. He's popular now.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #15 on: July 25, 2018, 10:30:16 pm »

I still struggle to see how Nelson loses in this environment, especially since he won by two landslides and Scott barely won, and Democratic incumbents in other narrow Trump win states are running away with it. I won't dismiss it out of hand, but it is confusing.

The Criminal was unpopular in 2010 and 2014, which was why he only barely won despite the waves. He's popular now.
Florida is a rather inelastic state, so I doubt popularity will get you that far. In a wave like this, with Florida's elasticity, Scott would need an approval of around +19 to win. That would be hard to accomplish.
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superbudgie1582
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« Reply #16 on: July 25, 2018, 11:24:24 pm »
« Edited: July 25, 2018, 11:27:47 pm by superbudgie1582 »

I know its probably cheaper, but I dislike this new trend of pollsters forgoing cell phones for online questionnaires.

Edit: Anyway, the national environment will save Nelson with room to spare....I hope. 
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Ronnie
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« Reply #17 on: July 25, 2018, 11:30:48 pm »

If Nelson loses in what should be a slam dunk race (or close to it), then he'd have no one but himself to blame.
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brand_allen
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« Reply #18 on: July 26, 2018, 08:59:35 am »

Florida is the #1 state by far for low quality polling

Given the quantity of polling in Florida, the lack of quality polling is definitely strange. Here's the letter grade (assigned by Five Thirty Eight) of each pollster to poll the Florida senate race since June:

Florida Atlantic Univ.: C+ (Scott +4)
Gravis: C+ (Nelson +4)
SurveyMonkey: D- (Scott +4)
YouGov: B (Scott +5)
PPP: B (Nelson +2)
Marist: A (Nelson +4)
Cherry Communications: B- (Scott +3)

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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #19 on: July 26, 2018, 07:45:44 pm »

I still struggle to see how Nelson loses in this environment, especially since he won by two landslides and Scott barely won, and Democratic incumbents in other narrow Trump win states are running away with it. I won't dismiss it out of hand, but it is confusing.

The Criminal was unpopular in 2010 and 2014, which was why he only barely won despite the waves. He's popular now.

Criminals are in style for the Republicans. Just look at the White House's current occupant.
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sjoyce
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« Reply #20 on: July 26, 2018, 09:00:17 pm »

I still struggle to see how Nelson loses in this environment, especially since he won by two landslides
He won two landslides against idiots. Scott is not an idiot, and has a lot more money than the two of them put together.

He's significantly more popular now than he was then.

and Democratic incumbents in other narrow Trump win states are running away with it. I won't dismiss it out of hand, but it is confusing.

Scott is a much, much better candidate than Jim Renacci or Matt Rosendale or whoever, and Nelson not as strong an incumbent as Tester (and probably Stabenow, though I'm less familiar with her).


Anyway, FAU is usually kinda junky but this poll is about where I think the race is at.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #21 on: July 26, 2018, 09:38:10 pm »

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SCNCmod
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« Reply #22 on: July 27, 2018, 02:30:10 am »

The '18 Florida Senate race seems like a race that if Nelson was a smart, scrappy campaigner like Claire McCaskill ... he would most likely win.  The question is, does Nelson have a smart, scrappy campaign team? (A question I do not know the answer to)
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Bagel23
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« Reply #23 on: July 27, 2018, 12:06:19 pm »

The '18 Florida Senate race seems like a race that if Nelson was a smart, scrappy campaigner like Claire McCaskill ... he would most likely win.  The question is, does Nelson have a smart, scrappy campaign team? (A question I do not know the answer to)

I answer your question, answer is no.
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cvparty
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« Reply #24 on: July 27, 2018, 02:11:08 pm »

this is so sad
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