Mississippi whites who vote Democratic

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Gays and University professors, a few 90 year old yellow dog Democrats.

[Del Tachi]

Thanks for the great posts, Adam and Reagente

There's evidence that Mississippi began losing raw White population before 2010, and it's definitely been the case since 2013.  If this effect is especially pronounced in majority-Black rural areas (which I suspect that it would be, just because economic prospects in these areas are so grim) then these counties' electorates might be notably less White in 2016 than they were in 2010.  This would elevate the White Dem % in these areas.  Waiting for 2020 Census numbers to validate this hunch.

[DINGO Joe]

Are rural areas in the south losing blacks or whites faster?  I've seen some evidence that blacks are abandoning the rural areas faster than whites.

[Adam Griffin]

Are rural areas in the south losing blacks or whites faster?  I've seen some evidence that blacks are abandoning the rural areas faster than whites.

I think it's highly dependent on the specific area and what influences are causing the loss. For example, Southwest GA almost certainly is losing blacks at a much faster rate than whites (and the broader trend is probably true for all rural parts of the state).

[I’m not Stu]

If Mike Espy overperforms with whites, as a few polls show; could he beat Chris McDaniel?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

If Mike Espy overperforms with whites, as a few polls show; could he beat Chris McDaniel?

For sure, but this race will be Espy vs Smith no doubt.

[I’m not Stu]

If Mike Espy overperforms with whites, as a few polls show; could he beat Chris McDaniel?

For sure, but this race will be Espy vs Smith no doubt.

Unless Trump endorses McDaniel.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

If Mike Espy overperforms with whites, as a few polls show; could he beat Chris McDaniel?

For sure, but this race will be Espy vs Smith no doubt.

Unless Trump endorses McDaniel.

Which would be awesome, but I doubt it, kinda like Blankenship.

[smoltchanov]

If Mike Espy overperforms with whites, as a few polls show; could he beat Chris McDaniel?

For sure, but this race will be Espy vs Smith no doubt.

With Smith winning...

[King of Kensington]

The few Dr. Nira Cain types that live in the state.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

If Mike Espy overperforms with whites, as a few polls show; could he beat Chris McDaniel?

For sure, but this race will be Espy vs Smith no doubt.

With Smith winning...

correct

[Indy Texas]

--Public employees (schoolteachers, county clerks, postal workers, etc)

--Trial lawyers in Jackson and Biloxi/Gulfport

I honestly can't think of any other coherent "groups." The rest are just random white people who have their own idiosyncratic reasons for voting Democratic.

I wouldn't even include university students because I guarantee you Republicans win white college students in Mississippi by landslides. Ole Miss gets a lot of out-of-state students who are basically rich white kids from the Atlanta suburbs. Fraternities/sororities are very big there. If you're a liberal white high schooler, there's a good chance you're going to self-select out and go to school somewhere else.

[I’m not Stu]

--Public employees (schoolteachers, county clerks, postal workers, etc)

--Trial lawyers in Jackson and Biloxi/Gulfport

I honestly can't think of any other coherent "groups." The rest are just random white people who have their own idiosyncratic reasons for voting Democratic.

I wouldn't even include university students because I guarantee you Republicans win white college students in Mississippi by landslides. Ole Miss gets a lot of out-of-state students who are basically rich white kids from the Atlanta suburbs. Fraternities/sororities are very big there. If you're a liberal white high schooler, there's a good chance you're going to self-select out and go to school somewhere else.

David Baria is a good example of a trial lawyer from Gulfport. Which Republican Senate candidate are young white college students more likely to vote for, Cindy Hyde-Smith or Chris McDaniel?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

--Public employees (schoolteachers, county clerks, postal workers, etc)

--Trial lawyers in Jackson and Biloxi/Gulfport

I honestly can't think of any other coherent "groups." The rest are just random white people who have their own idiosyncratic reasons for voting Democratic.

I wouldn't even include university students because I guarantee you Republicans win white college students in Mississippi by landslides. Ole Miss gets a lot of out-of-state students who are basically rich white kids from the Atlanta suburbs. Fraternities/sororities are very big there. If you're a liberal white high schooler, there's a good chance you're going to self-select out and go to school somewhere else.

David Baria is a good example of a trial lawyer from Gulfport. Which Republican Senate candidate are young white college students more likely to vote for, Cindy Hyde-Smith or Chris McDaniel?

Most younger Republicans tend to be less Trumpist and more Reaganite, so probably Hyde-Smith.  Most GOP primary polls tend to show traditional Republicans winning young voters.

[I’m not Stu]

I always thought younger Republicans tend to be Trumpist.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

--Public employees (schoolteachers, county clerks, postal workers, etc)

--Trial lawyers in Jackson and Biloxi/Gulfport

I honestly can't think of any other coherent "groups." The rest are just random white people who have their own idiosyncratic reasons for voting Democratic.

I wouldn't even include university students because I guarantee you Republicans win white college students in Mississippi by landslides. Ole Miss gets a lot of out-of-state students who are basically rich white kids from the Atlanta suburbs. Fraternities/sororities are very big there. If you're a liberal white high schooler, there's a good chance you're going to self-select out and go to school somewhere else.

Many from DFW suburbs go to that armpit too.

[TDAS04]

Did Trump win Oxford, like he did Lafayette County?

[SingingAnalyst]

Did Trump win Oxford, like he did Lafayette County?

Lafayette County overall: Trump 10872 (55.35%) to Clinton 7969 (40.57%).
Oxford: Trump 5649 (50.11%) to Clinton 5106 (45.29%)

[Adam Griffin]

Educational attainment for rural MS whites shouldn't be any worse than for rural Whites in AL/GA.  The fact that the uber-White Mississippi counties stick out on that map compared to AL/GA has something to do with whatever racial turnout dynamics you're using.

Why do some almost-monolithically Black counties (Noxubee, Holmes, Claiborne) seem to have an unusually-high % of White Democrats?  I think it has something to do with how you're modelling Black turnout/partisanship.  What sort of assumptions are being made there?

...

...

...

Glad to see some new data corroborating this broader trend:

https://twitter.com/MattGrossmann/status/1035895543233429504

[I’m not Stu]

White Democrats are surprisingly numerous in Orange County, CA. Why isn't the same true in urban Mississippi counties?

[libertpaulian]

College professors, college students, post-grads, women, LGBTs, Mainline Protestant clergy, social workers, trial lawyers, and whatever Yellow Dogs remain.

[I’m not Stu]

Are young whites in Mississippi more or less Republican than older whites?

[Indy Texas]

--Public employees (schoolteachers, county clerks, postal workers, etc)

--Trial lawyers in Jackson and Biloxi/Gulfport

I honestly can't think of any other coherent "groups." The rest are just random white people who have their own idiosyncratic reasons for voting Democratic.

I wouldn't even include university students because I guarantee you Republicans win white college students in Mississippi by landslides. Ole Miss gets a lot of out-of-state students who are basically rich white kids from the Atlanta suburbs. Fraternities/sororities are very big there. If you're a liberal white high schooler, there's a good chance you're going to self-select out and go to school somewhere else.

David Baria is a good example of a trial lawyer from Gulfport. Which Republican Senate candidate are young white college students more likely to vote for, Cindy Hyde-Smith or Chris McDaniel?

Most younger Republicans tend to be less Trumpist and more Reaganite, so probably Hyde-Smith.  Most GOP primary polls tend to show traditional Republicans winning young voters.

Clearly people who weren't alive when Ronald Reagan was president will describe themselves as "Reaganites."

[I’m not Stu]

Trump won the white vote in every county of Mississippi. In Louisiana, unlike Mississippi, Clinton won the white vote in New Orleans. Why are MS whites so Republican, even in Jackson?

[Adam Griffin]

Trump won the white vote in every county of Mississippi. In Louisiana, unlike Mississippi, Clinton won the white vote in New Orleans. Why are MS whites so Republican, even in Jackson?

Are you a bot?