NBC Marist Polls (MI, MN, WI): Whitmer +9, Waltz +9/Swanson +11, Evers +13

[Zaybay]

*Spits out Drink*

WOAH! What happened? How is Evers the strongest candidate?

Not even in Blue MN, were there margins like this, not even in Blue MI, are margins like this.

Im telling you guys, WI is not going to become a safe GOP state, or a lean one.

[Zaybay]

I could be convinced that Walker is losing, especially given the Supreme Court/Special Election results, but he's not down 13. Nope, no way, not possible.

Actually, this would make sense. The special elections in the rural regions have been swinging towards Dems by 20 points, and in the SC battle, the Dem backed one won by 10 points. The state is also super elastic, and Walker has been losing popularity.

[Zaybay]

Time to look at some primary numbers:

God damn it Thanedar, Why is he even here?
If he werent here, Abdul would probably be leading. But this race does look like its still in the air, and the Sanders endorsement might be able to tip the scales. But I still think Whitmer is favored here.


Evers seems to still be leading, but its interesting that he still does not have a large lead. Its possible the two endorsements can shake up the race.


Glad to see Swanson is only leading Walz by 1 point, hopefully undecideds go towards him after the Nolan controversy.

[Zaybay]

Walker has an approval of 42/50 in recent polling, why is it surprising that he would be doing so poorly, especially in an elastic state that has had a record swing towards Democrats.

[Zaybay]

We have polls showing Democrats competitive or leading in Arizona, Georgia, Kansas and Oklahoma and yet it is hard for some to believe they might be up big in Wisconsin, Michigan and Minnesota?

[Zaybay]

RCP has moved WI guber to Tossup:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/2018_elections_governor_map.html

[Zaybay]

1. This set of polls (including the senatorial results) are pretty devastating for the GOP (and NBC/Marist is a top tier pollster).

2. It’s still fascinating how Thanedar, who is by the far the worst debater of the three and has no government experience, is beating El-Sayed (and almost in striking distance of Whitmer, although I think most other recent polls show Whitmer with a more commanding lead). He would be by far the worst candidate in the general, and almost certainly the worst governor of the three Democratic candidates; Michigan Democrats, please don’t mess this up!

I think the Thanedar thing is mostly due to his "progressive" views, and the fact that he has basically blanketed the airwaves. He has been consistently falling in polling though, and the Sanders endorsement of Abdul should erode Thanedar's base of support. Hopefully.

[Zaybay]

The MI/MN numbers look reasonable. WI is obviously jaw dropping. I trust Marquette way more though, so it'll be interesting to see what they say in their next poll.

The guy who does Marquette says the numbers in the poll are reasonable, so I think these are close to what the numbers are.

This isnt Gravis, this is a top tier pollster, I dont think they would make a large mistake.

[Zaybay]

They think Walker is unbeatable; eventhough Cook PVI has WI as +2 Democrat

Cook PVI has WI as "EVEN"

I dont see how they got that number. If PVI is calculated via 2012 and 2016 presidential numbers, as they state, the PVI should be D+3.5, since Trump won by 1(rounding), and Obama won by 8(rounding).

[Zaybay]

They think Walker is unbeatable; eventhough Cook PVI has WI as +2 Democrat

Cook PVI has WI as "EVEN"

I dont see how they got that number. If PVI is calculated via 2012 and 2016 presidential numbers, as they state, the PVI should be D+3.5, since Trump won by 1(rounding), and Obama won by 8(rounding).

Cook PVI is measured by the % of vote you get in a state/distict compared to the nation as a whole, not margins. Obama got 52% (1% higher than his popular vote), while Trump got 47% (also 1% higher than his popular vote).

Ah, alright, that makes sense.

[Zaybay]

These look way too D-friendly (as do the Senate numbers, though not quite as bad)

I mean, even if they are D-friendly, which I will agree, they do appear to be so, a 13 point deficit is rather large. Im thinking Evers/the Dem wins by high single digits.

[Zaybay]

Cook PvI has D+2 in WI, Evers will win by 2-4

I'd gladly take a 2-4 win. Still, knowing Wisconsin, 13-point fantasy leads will dramatically shrink when Republicans begin bombarding airwaves with anti-Evers propaganda. Watch this lead turn into a single-digit deficit. Race is a true tossup.

I dont know how that would occur, considering Walker is a moderately unpopular governor and the state of WI has been swinging away from Rs this entire midterm, and that Baldwin is on the ballot, who has been leading polling in the double digits.

But sure, some ads from the Walker team will make this a true tossup. this is tilt-D IMO.

[Zaybay]

Just something interesting I found out. If this election occurs with these numbers, basically a Dallet victory but for a government office, the senate would almost be a Dem supermajority. Of course, I dont think Walker will lose by this much, and I dont think the Dems will win all of those seats, but if we get something close to this, the Ds will be able to win back the WI senate.

[Zaybay]

Is that counting all Senate seats or just the ones up for re-election?

It was counting all senate seats.

If we get a Dallet performance, and voters who vote for the Dem vote the same way down ballot, the senate would be.....
19D/14R

the seats that would flip would be 17, 19, 23, and 31.

[Zaybay]

lmfao

This is pathetic

[Zaybay]

lmfao

Smart move, tbh. Using a faulty poll to drive up donations and drive Dems to complacency. Marist's irresponsibility in providing a skewed result might actually help the Walker campaign.

Looks like we've found LimoLiberal's sock.

[Zaybay]

He is behind by a margin far out of the margin of error for most polling (about 4%). Marist may have a D bias, but not that big a bias.