Ontario municipal elections, 2018 (Oct 22)

[mileslunn]

https://twitter.com/TorontosMayor/status/1039302356914130945

Wonder if Trudeau will use the reserve allowance which hasn't been used since 1943 to override this.  I doubt it due to the risk, but you never know.  The other possibility is he could remove the LG and put one in who will refuse to grant royal assent to the legislation and the last an LG did this was 1961 in Saskatchewan.  Or just cut funding for certain programs.  More likely he will do nothing, in fact the more Doug Ford shoots himself in the foot, the better it is for Trudeau in 2019.

Also Trudeau really wants Rachel Notley to get re-elected and yesterday that looked impossible, but this now gives her an opening to hammer Kenney on, although probably won't be enough.

[Hatman 🍁]

Of course Justin will do nothing.

[mileslunn]

Of course Justin will do nothing.

Off course not.  After Donald Trump, Doug Ford is probably Trudeau's best weapon in helping get re-elected.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Of course Justin will do nothing.

Off course not.  After Donald Trump, Doug Ford is probably Trudeau's best weapon in helping get re-elected.

Wynne didn’t hurt the liberals in 2015 so I’m skeptical Ford will hurt the Conservatives. Provincial politics don’t tend to have that much of an effect on federal politics for the most part here (though their have been a few exceptions.)

[DL]

In 2015 Wynne was still quite popular in Ontario, she had won a majority juts a year earlier.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/TorontoStar/status/1042413598314848256

[Hatman 🍁]

[ON Progressive]

I assume the stay was because it’s really close to election time.

[lilTommy]

I assume the stay was because it’s really close to election time.

From what I know, The court actually admonished the lower court. Effectively saying that this was not really an infringement on freedom of expression, this is just an inconvenience, etc, from my opinion it was a very belittling verdict for those who oppose Bill 5/31 (like me) AND, that section 3 does not apply to Municipal elections. Take a moment there, the charter section that guarantees free and fair elections, does not apply to municipalities since they are a product of the province. Mind-Blown.
Anywho, city might appeal this.

[mileslunn]

How many here think Toronto's election should be moved to the spring of 2019.  I just feel with the chaos and the mess, it won't be able to be hold smoothly, whereas by then things should be firm one way or another.  Off course Ford never should have tried to push this through for 2018, but we are stuck with that.  I almost wonder if he wants chaos as I got the impression he is still bitter at the city council for not going along with his brother as mayor and wants to seek revenge.  Quite petty, but that seems to be the case.  Considering how small the savings are, I am quite skeptical that is his main reason for doing this.

[Hatman 🍁]

I almost wonder if he wants chaos as I got the impression he is still bitter at the city council for not going along with his brother as mayor and wants to seek revenge.  Quite petty, but that seems to be the case. 

Uhh, ya think?

The man is a deranged lunatic.

[lilTommy]

I almost wonder if he wants chaos as I got the impression he is still bitter at the city council for not going along with his brother as mayor and wants to seek revenge.  Quite petty, but that seems to be the case.  

Uhh, ya think?

The man is a deranged lunatic.

the results are likely to be challenged in court anyway as invalid, even under the 47 wards, at this point with about a month to go, ya a challenge is likely.

I'm not even convinced there will be savings given that there will be a need to hire double the staff per Councillor just to maintain the current level of service.
"...getting rid of 19 councillors and their office budgets, including travel expenses, equals less than $5 a year for every city of Toronto resident 15 or older. That did not account for the costs of adding additional staff for most of the 25 councillor offices."
https://www.thestar.com/news/city_hall/2018/08/06/what-do-toronto-city-councillors-do-more-like-what-dont-they-do.html

this might/probably will cots the city MORE money to have 25 Councillors and an appropriate staff.

Also, this is about rigging council to be more friendly, wounded and crippled, because of Ford's upcoming changes like uploading the TTC.

[King of Kensington]

I'm not even convinced there will be savings given that there will be a need to hire double the staff per Councillor just to maintain the current level of service.
"...getting rid of 19 councillors and their office budgets, including travel expenses, equals less than $5 a year for every city of Toronto resident 15 or older. That did not account for the costs of adding additional staff for most of the 25 councillor offices."
https://www.thestar.com/news/city_hall/2018/08/06/what-do-toronto-city-councillors-do-more-like-what-dont-they-do.html

this might/probably will cots the city MORE money to have 25 Councillors and an appropriate staff.

Amalgamation was supposed to save money - it didn't.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Yup.  Much easier for Ford's developer buddies to get their way.

[adma]

I'm not even convinced there will be savings given that there will be a need to hire double the staff per Councillor just to maintain the current level of service.
"...getting rid of 19 councillors and their office budgets, including travel expenses, equals less than $5 a year for every city of Toronto resident 15 or older. That did not account for the costs of adding additional staff for most of the 25 councillor offices."
https://www.thestar.com/news/city_hall/2018/08/06/what-do-toronto-city-councillors-do-more-like-what-dont-they-do.html

this might/probably will cots the city MORE money to have 25 Councillors and an appropriate staff.

Amalgamation was supposed to save money - it didn't.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Yup.  Much easier for Ford's developer buddies to get their way.

Though it's arguably a different class of "developer buddies"--more like big-box and casino hucksters than high-minded starchitecture merchants.

What we should *really* watch out for is the resucitation of issues that ought to have been dead and buried 30 or 40 or more years ago: urban expressways, getting rid of streetcars, kicking the Toronto Island residents out of their homes, etc...

[DC Al Fine]

I assume the stay was because it’s really close to election time.

From what I know, The court actually admonished the lower court. Effectively saying that this was not really an infringement on freedom of expression, this is just an inconvenience, etc, from my opinion it was a very belittling verdict for those who oppose Bill 5/31 (like me) AND, that section 3 does not apply to Municipal elections. Take a moment there, the charter section that guarantees free and fair elections, does not apply to municipalities since they are a product of the province. Mind-Blown.
Anywho, city might appeal this.

Its changing the size of council so it seems like a stretch to say its inhibiting free and fair elections. Bad policy =/= unconstitutional.

[lilTommy]

I assume the stay was because it’s really close to election time.

From what I know, The court actually admonished the lower court. Effectively saying that this was not really an infringement on freedom of expression, this is just an inconvenience, etc, from my opinion it was a very belittling verdict for those who oppose Bill 5/31 (like me) AND, that section 3 does not apply to Municipal elections. Take a moment there, the charter section that guarantees free and fair elections, does not apply to municipalities since they are a product of the province. Mind-Blown.
Anywho, city might appeal this.

Its changing the size of council so it seems like a stretch to say its inhibiting free and fair elections. Bad policy =/= unconstitutional.

Its the timing, the change is being done during the election, its effectively changing the rules of the game during the game.
Had this bill been brought to affect next election, there would be no issue.

[mileslunn]

I almost wonder if he wants chaos as I got the impression he is still bitter at the city council for not going along with his brother as mayor and wants to seek revenge.  Quite petty, but that seems to be the case. 

Uhh, ya think?

The man is a deranged lunatic.

I was being a bit diplomatic but agree the guy is a thug and a bully.  Looking at Abacus numbers today on his approval rating despite being in power for only 3 months, I think the PCs will come to regret choosing him as leader.  If Elliott were premier instead of Ford would probably be in a honeymoon now with strong positives whereas at the rate Ford is going his approval ratings will probably be lower than Wynne by New Year's.  The one caveat is unlike Wynne he has a rock solid base so I think there is around 25% who will support him no matter what but if he keeps things up he will polarize everyone else against him.

[adma]

Unfortunately, too, in the present right-populist climate, Ford & Co. would probably brand the Abacus numbers as "fake news", "biased", etc etc...

[King of Kensington]

Patrick Brown remains confident he'll win the lawsuit against CTV:

https://old.reddit.com/r/Brampton/comments/9hk009/i_am_patrick_brown_running_for_mayor_of_brampton/?st=jmdm3lp3&sh=e2cd06cf

[King of Kensington]

Does anyone want to make predictions for what wards/ridings Jennifer Keesmaat carries in Toronto?

[ON Progressive]

Does anyone want to make predictions for what wards/ridings Jennifer Keesmaat carries in Toronto?

The only one which I can say for sure she has a very good shot is Toronto-Danforth.

[Hatman 🍁]

Mainstreet and Forum had her losing the old city of Toronto, but our poll had her winning. Ours was done online though, which might mean we covered a population harder to get with than IVR. If our poll was correct though, she should be able to win Parkdale-High Park, Davenport, Toronto-Danforth and Beaches-East York, at least.

[King of Kensington]

Neither Tory or Keesmaat seem to have much working class support, so I suspect turnout in NW Toronto and Scarborough will be quite a bit lower without a Ford on the ballot.

[King of Kensington]

Does anyone want to make predictions for what wards/ridings Jennifer Keesmaat carries in Toronto?

The only one which I can say for sure she has a very good shot is Toronto-Danforth.

At the very least she'd get Danforth, Parkdale-High Park and Davenport I think (i.e. the 3 ridings with a very strong NDP base). 

[ON Progressive]

Does anyone want to make predictions for what wards/ridings Jennifer Keesmaat carries in Toronto?

The only one which I can say for sure she has a very good shot is Toronto-Danforth.

At the very least she'd get Danforth, Parkdale-High Park and Davenport I think (i.e. the 3 ridings with a very strong NDP base).  

I think most provincial Liberals in those places will go for Tory (and a significant number of NDP voters, given that she doesn't seem like the greatest candidate and Tory seems reasonably popular), so I'm not sure Tory doesn't win those two especially if he's ahead by 30 points like polls say.