Ontario municipal elections, 2018 (Oct 22)

[King of Kensington]

For whatever reason Danforth is the strongest for the NDP these days (though Tabuns being the incumbent probably helped a bit), but the "municipal left" is relatively stronger in the west end. 

[toaster]

I've always been a strong NDP supporter but I won't be supporting Keesmatt after what she did (or didn't do) for my community when she was in charge of planning. 

[King of Kensington]

Well, you can vote for Saron Gebresellassi who is very impressive and was also the president of the York South-Weston NDP riding association.

I haven't been very impressed by Jennifer Keesmaat's campaign either BTW. 

[DC Al Fine]

I've always been a strong NDP supporter but I won't be supporting Keesmatt after what she did (or didn't do) for my community when she was in charge of planning. 

Which was?

[Hatman 🍁]

She can't possibly be as bad as Ottawa's token progressive mayoral candidate, Clive Doucet who is as kooky as they come, and isn't running a particularly good campaign. LRT to villages of less than 1000 people? Umm, ok.

When he ran for mayor in 2010, I did not vote for him (voted for a fringe candidate), but am considering voting for him this time as a protest against our current mayor.

[King of Kensington]

Keesmaat seems to be aiming for Olivia Chow voters plus some yuppies and strategic voters.  She might have a winning strategy for an election conducted under the old city of Toronto boundaries. 

BTW Hatman do you have the 2014 mayoral race by riding easily available still (so I don't have to go back to page 5,267 of the Ontario election discussion or whatever...)?

[toaster]

I've always been a strong NDP supporter but I won't be supporting Keesmatt after what she did (or didn't do) for my community when she was in charge of planning. 

Which was?

Lack of any kind of planning despite 30 thousand people moving into a small area.  No rapid transit, no new roads, no community centres, libraries, etc.  Yet on the east end of the city, she spearheaded an impressive (and very expensive) plan, proposing all those thing be built ASAP and before any kind of huge population growth is expected.  She also under-reported numbers for population growth for the area (my opinion) for the ward redraw (although that doesn't matter now after what Ford did), she said the area would only gain 6k people, yet what is currently UC would already put the area above that (and doesn't include what is going to be happening at the Mr. Christie's site).  I can go on..

[King of Kensington]

Her housing plan is too much about putting a progressive spin on enriching developers. 

[King of Kensington]

Nevermind, found Hatman's riding result for the 2014 mayoral race:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=272718.msg6243731#msg6243731

What's remarkable is how much Tory really was the "everything for everybody" candidate in 2014.  Look at his similar vote shares were in "pairs" of urban and suburban ridings.

Beaches-East York  45.79%
Don Valley East  45.46%

Parkdale-High Park  43.63%
Etobicoke Centre  43.86%

This time, Tory is more vulnerable on his left flank. Jennifer Keesmaat's more "corporate" and nonpartisan technocrat demeanor will probably get her some North Toronto and condo votes than Olivia Chow wasn't able to get.  But nothing close to the Miller coalition. 

[King of Kensington]

Also, Jennifer Keesmaat - endorsed by the Labour Council and socdem councillors - supports P3s (see today's Financial Post).

[Krago]

For those interested in Toronto Ward maps, I found these online:  http://goadstoronto.blogspot.com/2012/03/goads-1893-toronto-fire-insurance-map.html

Now I know where St. Paul's used to be.

[Hatman 🍁]

For those interested in Toronto Ward maps, I found these online:  http://goadstoronto.blogspot.com/2012/03/goads-1893-toronto-fire-insurance-map.html

Now I know where St. Paul's used to be.

Yes, I used a similar map when I attempted to come up with ward names for the 48 wards. *cries a little bit inside*

[Hatman 🍁]

Mainstreet is doing ward polls in Toronto. Considering they're now the size of ridings, they won't be entirely trashy (but still a bit trashy) like council polls usually are.

Beaches-East York: Former NDP MP Matthew Kellway is way ahead, at 56%
Humber River-Black Creek: Councillor Anthony Perruzza is in the lead with 30%, with Councillor (and crazy man) Giorgio Mammoliti and progressive challenger Tiffany Ford tied in second at 21%. This is very good news, because Mammoliti is a terrible human being and needs to go. Nice to see that the progressives (Perruzza and Ford) are not splitting the vote. Ford is not related to Doug Ford btw. There is another right wing candidate, Deanna Sgro, who is the daughter Liberal MP Judy Sgro. She's at 17%.
Scarborough-Agincourt: Jim Karygiannis leads Norm Kelly 47-44. Both are incumbent councillors and former Liberal MPs, though I think Karygiannis is far more right wing.
Toronto Centre: Councillor (and progressive) Kristyn Wong-Tam leads former Liberal MPP George Smitherman 44-28. Appointed councillor Lucy Troisi is far behind at 8%.
York South-Weston: Two right wing councillors are going at it; Frances Nunziata (sister of Liberal turned independent right wing MP John Nunziata) leads Frank DiGiorgio 40-30.

[DL]

Mainstreet is doing ward polls in Toronto. Considering they're now the size of ridings, they won't be entirely trashy (but still a bit trashy) like council polls usually are.

Humber River-Black Creek: Councillor Anthony Perruzza is in the lead with 30%, with Councillor (and crazy man) Giorgio Mammoliti and progressive challenger Tiffany Ford tied in second at 21%. This is very good news, because Mammoliti is a terrible human being and needs to go. Nice to see that the progressives (Perruzza and Ford) are not splitting the vote. Ford is not related to Doug Ford btw. There is another right wing candidate, Deanna Sgro, who is the daughter Liberal MP Judy Sgro. She's at 17%.

Actually Perruzza and Ford are splitting the progressive/anti-Mammoliti vote - its just that Mammoliti's support is low enough that it may not matter. These polls are largely a measure of name recognition. Mammoliti and Perruzza are both incumbents on city council though the new ward has more of Mammoliti's old ward than Peruzza's. Ford is the current school trustee for the area and Deanna Sgro was the Liberal candidate in the corresponding provincial seat in June - she came in third and her mother is the federal MP.

[King of Kensington]

Doesn't like the overall ideological balance is going to change much, which is good for Ford.  Incumbents may defeat other incumbents, but few newcomers to politics will make it.  Former MPs and MPPs also have an advantage under this new system, such as Kellway.  I suspect that Mike Colle has the lead in Eglinton-Lawrence for example.

[King of Kensington]

https://twitter.com/mammolitiward7/status/1045654871540674561

[RogueBeaver]

Patemkin is running 2nd behind Jeffrey in Brampton apparently.

[Hatman 🍁]

Pretty hard to do proper polling in Brampton.

[Hatman 🍁]

There's a vote compass for the Toronto election: https://votecompass.cbc.ca/toronto/

I got:
Keesmaat: 77%
Tory: 66%

It will also give you alignment with ward candidates if you pick a ward.

[DC Al Fine]

There's a vote compass for the Toronto election: https://votecompass.cbc.ca/toronto/

I got:
Keesmaat: 77%
Tory: 66%

It will also give you alignment with ward candidates if you pick a ward.

They didnt put Goldy on there?

[Hatman 🍁]

The election in London will be the only municipality with a preferential ballot for this election (Cambridge and Kingston are holding plebiscites for next time), and it will be put to good use for this election.  Forum Research did a poll showing the top three candidates within 2 points of each other, and the fourth place candidate not far behind:

- Paul Cheng (consultant): 27
- Ed Holder (former Tory MP) - 26
- Tanya Park (city councillor) - 25
- Paul Paolatto (CEO) - 19
- Other - 3

They also polled second and third preferences, and apparently Holder and Cheng are in a statistical tie for the final ballot.

[RogueBeaver]

Brampton: Bill Davis endorses Brown.

[mileslunn]

For Toronto vote compass I got the following.

John Tory 71%
Jennifer Keesmaat 58%

For my former ward of Spadina-Fort York, I got the following, Joe Cressy the current one in last, no surprise.

Spadina-Fort York

Sabrina Zuniga

71%

John Nguyen

67%

Andrei Zodian

65%

Kevin Vuong

64%

April Engelberg

64%

Joe Cressy


43%

[Hatman 🍁]

This is rather amusing. I had no idea Eve Adams (remember her?) was running for city council in Hamilton. Apparently she got the endorsement from her sister-in-law, Andrea Horvath, which people obviously confused with Andrea Horwath (same pronunciation, I assume), who of course is also from Hamilton.

[Hatman 🍁]

Some more Mainstreet ward polls

Don Valley West:
-Jon Bunrside: 47
-Jaye Robinson: 44
Both are incumbents from the two predecessor wards. I don't know anything about their politics; I assume they're both centrists?

Etobicoke North:
-Michael Ford: 35
-Vincent Crisanti: 32
Both are right wing and are incumbents from the two predecessor wards. Ford is the nephew of premier Doug Ford (and former mayor Rob Ford).

Scarborough North:
-Maggi Chi: 25
-Ashwani Bhardwaj: 19
-Cynthia Lai: 14
-Neethan Saba: 10
-Felicia Samuel: 9
-Nahoob Milan: 6
One of the few open seats. Chi is the former constituency assistant to councillor Chin Lee (a Liberal), and has some high profile endorsements. Sad to see Samuel at only 9%. She was the NDP candidate in the provincial election in neighbouring Scarborough-Rouge Park.