Ontario municipal elections, 2018 (Oct 22)

[mileslunn]

Some more Mainstreet ward polls

Don Valley West:
-Jon Bunrside: 47
-Jaye Robinson: 44
Both are incumbents from the two predecessor wards. I don't know anything about their politics; I assume they're both centrists?

Etobicoke North:
-Michael Ford: 35
-Vincent Crisanti: 32
Both are right wing and are incumbents from the two predecessor wards. Ford is the nephew of premier Doug Ford (and former mayor Rob Ford).

Scarborough North:
-Maggi Chi: 25
-Ashwani Bhardwaj: 19
-Cynthia Lai: 14
-Neethan Saba: 10
-Felicia Samuel: 9
-Nahoob Milan: 6
One of the few open seats. Chi is the former constituency assistant to councillor Chin Lee (a Liberal), and has some high profile endorsements. Sad to see Samuel at only 9%. She was the NDP candidate in the provincial election in neighbouring Scarborough-Rouge Park.

What is funny is both Ford and Crisanti endorsed Doug Ford as leader of the PCs and premier yet thanks to that one of them will be out of a job because he is premier.  Talk about karma as if NDP or OLP won or PCs choose Elliott or Mulroney, it is likely both of them would be returned to office as none of them would have messed with the wards. 

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, it's dumb, but neither have to worry about vote splitting; it doesn't look like a credible progressive is running there. And having the last name Ford will undoubtedly result in Michael Ford winning at the end of the day. I'm surprised it is as close as it is, frankly.

[lilTommy]

- Crisanti must have his own personal following, more sizable then we thought. Too bad the Ford name is now helping Tiffany Ford in Humber River-Black Creek but she'd probably not want those votes. As long as Mammo loses I'm alright
- Sad that Chiara Padovani isn't more competitive in York South-Weston, I guess with two right-winger incumbents fighting she can't rally. I'm seeing lots of progressive support for her (NDPers all in there)

[King of Kensington]

Felicia Samuel should have run in Rouge Park, and Neethan Shan in Scarb North. 

[lilTommy]

Felicia Samuel should have run in Rouge Park, and Neethan Shan in Scarb North.  

Agreed! I don't get that move at all...

The Star Endorsements, Wards 1-12:
https://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorials/2018/10/15/these-are-the-city-builders-that-toronto-needs.html?fbclid=IwAR2bm2e_Rm1k2yd-OGCVmZNXl_j_Xc7iYu6oV-9dW9BQoSTAkywpgp3KCP4

No real surprises in the Progressive candidates, some notes:

Ward 5: York South-Weston: Lekan Olawoye, Lekan also has the Labour Council endorsement, but Chiara Padovani is endorsed by Progress Toronto, so they've split the vote here for for Progressives, so I sadly can't see either one come up the middle to defeat two right-wing incumbents.  

Ward 12, Toronto-St. Paul’s: - Endorsed Josh Matlow over Joe Mihevc, both progressive and one of the battles that wasn't settled out ahead of time. Sounds like they flipped a coin more-or-less.

[King of Kensington]

Shan had "incumbency" and opted for Rouge Park.  His ward straddles both Scarb North and Rouge Park.

There isn't much of a Black population where Felicia Samuel is running, but there is in Rouge Park. And she would have had a base to draw from there. 

[lilTommy]

Shan had "incumbency" and opted for Rouge Park.  His ward straddles both Scarb North and Rouge Park.

There isn't much of a Black population where Felicia Samuel is running, but there is in Rouge Park. And she would have had a base to draw from there. 

... so his decision makes even less sense?! effectively killing a second Progressive from potentially winning (Yes a Liberal seems to be leading)

[toaster]

The Star's endorsement for Morley in Ward 3 is a shock to me.  On the ground in the riding, it feels much more like a Grimes Vs Gough race, and progressive councillor Doucette has endorsed Gough as well.  Morley really doesn't have much of a shot here.  She might be a little more further left learning (or at least that's what I'm being fed by her campaign, I haven't seen that translate on issues).  Would love to see a poll for the area though.

[adma]

- Crisanti must have his own personal following, more sizable then we thought.

Well, he has his former ward, and Mikey has *his* former ward (and less of it than before due to redistribution).  Also remember that Crisanti has maturity and experience, and Mikey was basically a "kid" parachuted in on surname coattails alone...

[Hatman 🍁]

More Mainstreet polls

Beaches-East York
- Matthew Kellway (former NDP MP): 44%
- Brad Bradford (the mayor's choice): 32%

Don Valley East
- Denzil Minnan-Wong (incumbent, conservative): 43%
- David Caplan (former Liberal MPP): 24%

Scarborough Southwest
- Gary Crawford (incumbent, conservative): 36%
- Michelle Holland-Berardinetti (incumbent, Liberal): 34%

Toronto-St. Paul's
- Josh Matlow (incumbent, Liberal): 44%
- Joe Mihevc (incumbent, New Democrat): 42%

(weird race, as John Tory endorsed Mihevc)
 

[lilTommy]

Rest of The Star's endorsements:

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorials/2018/10/16/these-are-the-council-members-toronto-needs.html

Ward 14, Toronto-Danforth - Paula Fletcher over Mary Fragedakis. Personally for me this would have been the hardest choice. They ran against-but-not-against-each-other campaign since they are both very close allies. I sat with both of them on TO-Danforth NDP executive years ago, both are great I think and I really couldn't decide between them.

Ward 15, Don Valley West - Burnside over Robinson; both are centrist-centre right and both to me are disappointing, lesser of two evils?

[King of Kensington]

Ward 15, Don Valley West - Burnside over Robinson; both are centrist-centre right and both to me are disappointing, lesser of two evils?

Probably would leave my councillor blank if I was voting there.  The candidate of the very rich (Jaye Robinson, Hogg's Hollow) vs. the upper middle class (Jon Burnside, Leaside). 

At least there's Amara Possian for Trustee who is fantastic.

[Hatman 🍁]

Today's poll dump from Mainstreet

Etobicoke Centre:
John Campbell (incumbent): 41%
Stephen Holyday (incumbent, son of former Tory MPP): 39%
(Erica Kelly, who ran for the NDP in June is at 3% )

Toronto-Danforth:
Paula Fletcher (incumbent, progressive): 40%
Mary Fragedakis (incumbent, progressive): 25%

York Centre:
Maria Augimeri (incumbent, New Democrat): 48%
James Pasternak (incumbent): 45%

[adma]

Today's poll dump from Mainstreet

Etobicoke Centre:
John Campbell (incumbent): 41%
Stephen Holyday (incumbent, son of former Tory MPP): 39%
(Erica Kelly, who ran for the NDP in June is at 3% )

Angelo Carlevale, whose campaign launch Premier Ford attended and whose sign he sports on his front lawn (!): 13%.

For a Premier who purports to represent "the people", he sure doesn't have home-turf ballot-box endorsement pull.

[Hatman 🍁]

Forum did some polling too:

Humber River-Black Creek
- Anthony Perruzza: 42%
- Girogio Mammoliti: 22%
- Tiffany Ford: 12% (sad to see, but at least Mammoliti is losing)

Scarborough-Agincourt
- Jim Karygiannis: 41%
- Norm Kelly: 37%
- Vincent Lee: 9%

Toronto Centre
- Kristyn Wong-Tam: 52%
- George Smitherman: 22%

Don Valley West
- Jaye Robinson: 48%
- Jon Bunrside: 37%

Toronto-St. Paul's
- Josh Matlow: 49%
- Joe Mihevc: 43%

Don Valley East
- Menzil Minnan-Wong: 39%
- David Caplan: 35% (much closer than Mainstreet has it at)

York South-Weston
- Frances Nunziata: 39%
- Chiara Padovani: 20%
- Frank DiGiorgio: 19%

Scarborough-Rouge River
- Jennifer McKelvie: 50%
- Neethan Shan: 27% :

Willowdale
- John Filion: 39%
- Lly Cheng: 11%
- Sonny Cho: 11%
- Danny De Santis: 9%

Beaches-East York
- Matthew Kellway: 44%
- Brad Bradford: 27%

Some of these numbers feel very, very wrong

[Hatman 🍁]

Forum also polled the mayor race in each of the wards, and Tory is leading in all of them, though it is fairly close-ish in Toronto Centre. I reckon Keesmaat will win a few wards. Perhaps Davenport and Parkdale-High Park?

[Hatman 🍁]

More Forum polls!

Brampton, mayor:
Patrick Brown (former PC leader): 40%
Linda Jeffrey (incumbent; former Liberal MPP): 40%

Hamilton, mayor:
Fred Eisenberger (incumbent; Conservative): 39%
Vito Sgro (Liberal): 38%

Not sure what's going on in Hamilton, Eisenberger had a large lead earlier in the campaign.

[Hatman 🍁]

There was also a university poll done of the race for chair of Waterloo Region:

Karen Redman (former Liberal MP): 67%
Rob Deutschmann (former mayor of North Dumfries): 18%

[King of Kensington]

Forum also polled the mayor race in each of the wards, and Tory is leading in all of them, though it is fairly close-ish in Toronto Centre. I reckon Keesmaat will win a few wards. Perhaps Davenport and Parkdale-High Park?

I think Keesmaat will do somewhat better among among North Toronto types and worse among "hipsters" relative to Olivia Chow.

[Hatman 🍁]

Speaking of Horwath endorsements, the real Andrea Horwath endorsed Eisenberger today. I think David Christopherson has also endorsed him in the past? He must be a pretty red Tory.

[RogueBeaver]

Brampton: Mainstreet has Patemkin 44, Jeffrey 39.

[Hatman 🍁]

Humber River-Black Creek (Mainstreet):

Peruzza: 33%
Ford: 21%
Mammolitti: 20%
Sgro: 15%

Oh, I would LOVE it if Mammolitti finished third!

[DL]

Brampton: Mainstreet has Patemkin 44, Jeffrey 39.

No one seems to be able to give me an answer as to who New Democrats in Brampton should back for mayor. Keep in mind that the Ontario NDP has three out of five Brampton seats. But Linda Jeffrey is a former Ontario Liberal MPP and Brown lf course was PC leader.

My take is that Jeffrey is a very partisan Liberal - but she also seems to be getting covert support from Ford because Ford's people hate Brown so much. I have no idea what actual issues separate Brown from Jeffrey - but as an NDP supporter i guess that all things being equal, Id rather see Brown win because it would drive Doug Ford crazy and "the enemy of my enemy is my friend"

[DL]

Humber River-Black Creek (Mainstreet):

Peruzza: 33%
Ford: 21%
Mammolitti: 20%
Sgro: 15%

Oh, I would LOVE it if Mammolitti finished third!

Never mind third, I want him to finish FOURTH!!

[Hatman 🍁]

Brampton: Mainstreet has Patemkin 44, Jeffrey 39.

No one seems to be able to give me an answer as to who New Democrats in Brampton should back for mayor. Keep in mind that the Ontario NDP has three out of five Brampton seats. But Linda Jeffrey is a former Ontario Liberal MPP and Brown lf course was PC leader.

My take is that Jeffrey is a very partisan Liberal - but she also seems to be getting covert support from Ford because Ford's people hate Brown so much. I have no idea what actual issues separate Brown from Jeffrey - but as an NDP supporter i guess that all things being equal, Id rather see Brown win because it would drive Doug Ford crazy and "the enemy of my enemy is my friend"

All three Brampton NDP MPPs endorsed Jeffrey.