Ontario municipal elections, 2018 (Oct 22)

[mileslunn]

I think John Tory will win pretty easily, wouldn't surprised if north of 60 percent due to name recognition. Faith Goldy will likely get less than 1 percent as asides from your hardcore Rebel media readers few know who she is and most who do find her viewpoints very disturbing.

I was wondering what people think about Patrick Brown's chances in Brampton. I think his chances would have been better in Barrie where he is well known. Although I wonder if a lot of progressives will vote for him just as a way to send a message to Doug Ford?

[mileslunn]

Also if you want to talk about bigots running, I believe Kevin J Johnston is running for mayor again in Mississauga, off course he will lose badly and be lucky to get 2%, quite probably under 1%.

For Hatman - Not sure if you followed this one closely, but remember Terry Kilrea who ran for mayor in Ottawa.  I believe he got something like 36% of the popular vote and if his twitter comments are anything to go on, he seems pretty far to the right.  Big Trump supporter although hasn't made any racist remarks like Faith Goldy that I can find, although doesn't mean he hasn't.

For far right candidates, in 1974, Don Andrews came in 2nd in Toronto, although David Crombie won by a landslide and faced no serious challenge.  Guessing it was a donkey vote as his name was first listed alphabetically so many who didn't like Crombie voted for him without realizing who he was.

[mileslunn]

Anybody have a tab on how many defeated Liberal MPP's are running here as well as defeated Tory and NDP MP's from the 2015 election.

[mileslunn]

If you want a measure of how Faith Goldy might do, consider how Lauren Southern got 0.9% for the Libertarians in Langley-Aldergrove in 2015.  It's not like she's a Tooker Gomberg of the far right or anything...

I suspect most of Lauren Southern's votes were dissatisfied conservatives as she was running under the Libertarian banner and she wasn't a household name then so lots of her votes probably didn't realize she was a white supremacist.  Libertarians did reasonably well in the ridings they ran federally, but poorly in the last Ontario election which is interesting (I thought they would have picked up more anti-Ford PC types who couldn't stomach going Liberal or NDP).  Federally I suspect most Libertarian voters were dissatisfied conservatives who wanted Harper gone, but couldn't bring themselves to vote for Trudeau or Mulcair.  The Libertarians also did surprisingly well in the ridings they ran in, in the BC election and there I suspect mostly either former BC Conservatives or dissatisfied BC Liberals.

As for white supremacists running, it seems Toronto has a long tradition of this and every election at least one runs, but usually they don't get very many votes thankfully.

[mileslunn]

It will be interesting to see how many win.  That would be a good indication of their actual popularity as each of their losses was probably more due to the unpopularity of the Wynne government as opposed to them, mind you being a member of the Wynne government that was just recently defeated might make them an easy target for their opponents.  Interestingly enough from the 2015 federal election, there were 5 defeated Tory MPs who ran and 4 of them were successful (One Parm Gill though switched ridings, the riding he lost in Brampton Centre narrowly went NDP, while the riding he ran in Milton is Tory held federally) while no defeated NDP MPs.  Not sure how many other unsuccessful from 2015 ran this time, but I know there were two unsuccessful Tory candidates (Michael Parsa, and Effie Triantafilopoulos who won and I know Nina Tangri has run multiple times at both levels unsuccessfully).  So at least provincially it doesn't seem losing elsewhere hurt, mind you a bad comparison as you have parties for both federal and provincial, while municipally

[mileslunn]

Defeated Tories from 2015 running for municipal election:

- Mike Wallace is running for mayor of Burlington
- Ed Holder is running for mayor of London
- Bal Gosal is running for mayor of Brampton

How many of the above do you think have a real chance of actually winning?  We have seen a few ex Liberal MPs make a jump municipally and win such as Bonnie Crombie of Mississauga and Maurizio Bevilacqua of Vaughan.  Certainly helps in name recognition and my understanding is for both the defeated MPs as well as defeated MPPs many were well liked personally, it was more their party and leader that caused their defeat as opposed to them personally.

[mileslunn]

Anybody have a tab on how many defeated Liberal MPP's are running here as well as defeated Tory and NDP MP's from the 2015 election.

As far as I know, Chris Ballard is running for Mayor of Newmarket. Kathryn McGary is running for mayor of Cambridge. Steven Del Duca was supposed to run for regional council chair in York. I believe Han Dong is also running for Council.

Ballard is running for mayor Aurora, actually.

Here are some more:

Jim Bradley is running for regional council in Niagara.  Bill Mauro is running for mayor of Thunder Bay. Granville Anderson is running for Durham regional council. Dipika Damerla is running for Mississauga City Council. And Bob Delaney is "running" for Peel Region Chair, if that election is still going on.

And Michael Harris (who didn't run for re-election, because he was forced out of the PC party) is running for Waterloo regional council.

What's the competition like in Thunder Bay.  Unless they have a popular mayor, I think Bill Mauro has a fairly decent chance as he nearly won his riding and the Wynne government was very unpopular in the Thunder Bay area so I suspect the only reason he did as well as he did was personal popularity so I would think that would bode well for him.

[mileslunn]

I can't predict other city's municipal elections, as I don't live there, so I don't know. Might be tough for Holder to win in London though, because the have ranked ballots, and I don't think he can get 50% of the vote in a left-of-centre city like London.

I am thinking Mike Wallace seems like the only one with a decent shot although don't know much about the current mayor of Burlington in terms of his popularity although he is on the left, former Green Party, but I am not sure if left vs. right matters as much municipally.  Hamilton's mayor Fred Eisenberger is a Tory and that didn't stop him from winning never mind he slammed Ford's decision.  Bal Gosal might be a possibility as you have a large Sikh community and I've never fully understand their voting patterns, other than the Sikh community unlike a lot of immigrant communities tends to be very active and has a large turnout usually.

[mileslunn]

This will be interesting in how this plays out, but I cannot see it helping Ford.  It will also be interesting if some of the more moderate members in his caucus start to get worried.  Usually people don't stand up unless the party is headed for defeat, but I wouldn't be surprised if this continues over the next four years if you see a few members quit the party.  Heck I would even at this point be willing to bet the Liberals will be able to pick up at least one defection thus giving them official party status.  While off topic relative to municipal elections, I do think this will help Trudeau in 2019 as he has not just Trump, but now Ford, and probably soon Kenney to use as whipping boys.

Going back to municipal elections, I heard Brown is leading in Brampton.  This might help him even though Brampton's current mayor is centre-left.

[mileslunn]

https://twitter.com/TorontosMayor/status/1039302356914130945

Wonder if Trudeau will use the reserve allowance which hasn't been used since 1943 to override this.  I doubt it due to the risk, but you never know.  The other possibility is he could remove the LG and put one in who will refuse to grant royal assent to the legislation and the last an LG did this was 1961 in Saskatchewan.  Or just cut funding for certain programs.  More likely he will do nothing, in fact the more Doug Ford shoots himself in the foot, the better it is for Trudeau in 2019.

Also Trudeau really wants Rachel Notley to get re-elected and yesterday that looked impossible, but this now gives her an opening to hammer Kenney on, although probably won't be enough.

[mileslunn]

Of course Justin will do nothing.

Off course not.  After Donald Trump, Doug Ford is probably Trudeau's best weapon in helping get re-elected.

[mileslunn]

How many here think Toronto's election should be moved to the spring of 2019.  I just feel with the chaos and the mess, it won't be able to be hold smoothly, whereas by then things should be firm one way or another.  Off course Ford never should have tried to push this through for 2018, but we are stuck with that.  I almost wonder if he wants chaos as I got the impression he is still bitter at the city council for not going along with his brother as mayor and wants to seek revenge.  Quite petty, but that seems to be the case.  Considering how small the savings are, I am quite skeptical that is his main reason for doing this.

[mileslunn]

I almost wonder if he wants chaos as I got the impression he is still bitter at the city council for not going along with his brother as mayor and wants to seek revenge.  Quite petty, but that seems to be the case. 

Uhh, ya think?

The man is a deranged lunatic.

I was being a bit diplomatic but agree the guy is a thug and a bully.  Looking at Abacus numbers today on his approval rating despite being in power for only 3 months, I think the PCs will come to regret choosing him as leader.  If Elliott were premier instead of Ford would probably be in a honeymoon now with strong positives whereas at the rate Ford is going his approval ratings will probably be lower than Wynne by New Year's.  The one caveat is unlike Wynne he has a rock solid base so I think there is around 25% who will support him no matter what but if he keeps things up he will polarize everyone else against him.

[mileslunn]

For Toronto vote compass I got the following.

John Tory 71%
Jennifer Keesmaat 58%

For my former ward of Spadina-Fort York, I got the following, Joe Cressy the current one in last, no surprise.

Spadina-Fort York

Sabrina Zuniga

71%

John Nguyen

67%

Andrei Zodian

65%

Kevin Vuong

64%

April Engelberg

64%

Joe Cressy


43%

[mileslunn]

Some more Mainstreet ward polls

Don Valley West:
-Jon Bunrside: 47
-Jaye Robinson: 44
Both are incumbents from the two predecessor wards. I don't know anything about their politics; I assume they're both centrists?

Etobicoke North:
-Michael Ford: 35
-Vincent Crisanti: 32
Both are right wing and are incumbents from the two predecessor wards. Ford is the nephew of premier Doug Ford (and former mayor Rob Ford).

Scarborough North:
-Maggi Chi: 25
-Ashwani Bhardwaj: 19
-Cynthia Lai: 14
-Neethan Saba: 10
-Felicia Samuel: 9
-Nahoob Milan: 6
One of the few open seats. Chi is the former constituency assistant to councillor Chin Lee (a Liberal), and has some high profile endorsements. Sad to see Samuel at only 9%. She was the NDP candidate in the provincial election in neighbouring Scarborough-Rouge Park.

What is funny is both Ford and Crisanti endorsed Doug Ford as leader of the PCs and premier yet thanks to that one of them will be out of a job because he is premier.  Talk about karma as if NDP or OLP won or PCs choose Elliott or Mulroney, it is likely both of them would be returned to office as none of them would have messed with the wards. 

[mileslunn]

I haven't seen a single Jefferey signs on private properties in the Springdale area (Brampton North, ONDP area held by Kevin Yarde). It's all been for Brown (and one for another candidate, Spo.. something?).  And let me tell you, people in this part of Brampton love putting up election signs (so many for council, trustee, regional council, etc).

Polling in Brampton is near impossible, so quite possibly Brown will win in a landslide.

Ok well then i will be happy whatever the outcome in Brampton. If Jeffrey wins I'll be happy since she seems mildly progressive and she is the choice of the NDP MPPs there. If Brown wins then i will be happy for no other reason than that it will drive Doug Ford nuts.

In fact, if Brown wins the Brampton mayoralty i wouldnt put it past Ford to recall the legislature and bring in a bill abolishing the city of Brampton and putting it under direct Ontario government trusteeship

More realistically, Ford will try to amalgamate all of Peel into one super municipality.

That might though get some pushback from Sylvia Jones.  Half the population of her riding lives in Caledon and unlike Mississauga and Brampton, Caledon is still quite rural so wouldn't make sense to lump it in with a larger suburb.  Perhaps he will just merge Brampton and Mississauga though, that wouldn't surprise me.

[mileslunn]

Most of Ottawa's land area is rural, but that didn't stop Mike Harris from amalgamating us.

Good point and I believe the same could be said with Hamilton.

[mileslunn]

Giorgio Mammoliti has been defeated, looks like Michael Ford beat Crisanti.  John Tory wins by a landslide as we would expect but shocked Faith Goldy got 3.4%.  A small number but still shocking over 20,000 people in one of the world's most multicultural cities support a white supremacist.

[mileslunn]

What's with Islamophobe Kevin J Johnston getting 13% in Mississauga?  Or this just a case of horrible turnout and since the alt right has a motivated base they benefited from that.

[mileslunn]

I would also put Minnan Wong under moderate Tory ally. He ran as a PC candidate, but was deputy mayor and a very strong critic of both the Ford Brothers not a supporter of them.