Ontario municipal elections, 2018 (Oct 22)

[King of Kensington]

Mike Colle is also running for council.

[King of Kensington]

The decision can be read here:

https://www.thestar.com/news/toronto-election/2018/09/10/superior-court-judge-strikes-down-legislation-cutting-the-size-of-toronto-city-council.html

[King of Kensington]

I'm not even convinced there will be savings given that there will be a need to hire double the staff per Councillor just to maintain the current level of service.
"...getting rid of 19 councillors and their office budgets, including travel expenses, equals less than $5 a year for every city of Toronto resident 15 or older. That did not account for the costs of adding additional staff for most of the 25 councillor offices."
https://www.thestar.com/news/city_hall/2018/08/06/what-do-toronto-city-councillors-do-more-like-what-dont-they-do.html

this might/probably will cots the city MORE money to have 25 Councillors and an appropriate staff.

Amalgamation was supposed to save money - it didn't.

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Yup.  Much easier for Ford's developer buddies to get their way.

[King of Kensington]

Patrick Brown remains confident he'll win the lawsuit against CTV:

https://old.reddit.com/r/Brampton/comments/9hk009/i_am_patrick_brown_running_for_mayor_of_brampton/?st=jmdm3lp3&sh=e2cd06cf

[King of Kensington]

Does anyone want to make predictions for what wards/ridings Jennifer Keesmaat carries in Toronto?

[King of Kensington]

Neither Tory or Keesmaat seem to have much working class support, so I suspect turnout in NW Toronto and Scarborough will be quite a bit lower without a Ford on the ballot.

[King of Kensington]

Does anyone want to make predictions for what wards/ridings Jennifer Keesmaat carries in Toronto?

The only one which I can say for sure she has a very good shot is Toronto-Danforth.

At the very least she'd get Danforth, Parkdale-High Park and Davenport I think (i.e. the 3 ridings with a very strong NDP base). 

[King of Kensington]

For whatever reason Danforth is the strongest for the NDP these days (though Tabuns being the incumbent probably helped a bit), but the "municipal left" is relatively stronger in the west end. 

[King of Kensington]

Well, you can vote for Saron Gebresellassi who is very impressive and was also the president of the York South-Weston NDP riding association.

I haven't been very impressed by Jennifer Keesmaat's campaign either BTW. 

[King of Kensington]

Keesmaat seems to be aiming for Olivia Chow voters plus some yuppies and strategic voters.  She might have a winning strategy for an election conducted under the old city of Toronto boundaries. 

BTW Hatman do you have the 2014 mayoral race by riding easily available still (so I don't have to go back to page 5,267 of the Ontario election discussion or whatever...)?

[King of Kensington]

Her housing plan is too much about putting a progressive spin on enriching developers. 

[King of Kensington]

Nevermind, found Hatman's riding result for the 2014 mayoral race:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=272718.msg6243731#msg6243731

What's remarkable is how much Tory really was the "everything for everybody" candidate in 2014.  Look at his similar vote shares were in "pairs" of urban and suburban ridings.

Beaches-East York  45.79%
Don Valley East  45.46%

Parkdale-High Park  43.63%
Etobicoke Centre  43.86%

This time, Tory is more vulnerable on his left flank. Jennifer Keesmaat's more "corporate" and nonpartisan technocrat demeanor will probably get her some North Toronto and condo votes than Olivia Chow wasn't able to get.  But nothing close to the Miller coalition. 

[King of Kensington]

Also, Jennifer Keesmaat - endorsed by the Labour Council and socdem councillors - supports P3s (see today's Financial Post).

[King of Kensington]

Doesn't like the overall ideological balance is going to change much, which is good for Ford.  Incumbents may defeat other incumbents, but few newcomers to politics will make it.  Former MPs and MPPs also have an advantage under this new system, such as Kellway.  I suspect that Mike Colle has the lead in Eglinton-Lawrence for example.

[King of Kensington]

https://twitter.com/mammolitiward7/status/1045654871540674561

[King of Kensington]

Felicia Samuel should have run in Rouge Park, and Neethan Shan in Scarb North. 

[King of Kensington]

Shan had "incumbency" and opted for Rouge Park.  His ward straddles both Scarb North and Rouge Park.

There isn't much of a Black population where Felicia Samuel is running, but there is in Rouge Park. And she would have had a base to draw from there. 

[King of Kensington]

Ward 15, Don Valley West - Burnside over Robinson; both are centrist-centre right and both to me are disappointing, lesser of two evils?

Probably would leave my councillor blank if I was voting there.  The candidate of the very rich (Jaye Robinson, Hogg's Hollow) vs. the upper middle class (Jon Burnside, Leaside). 

At least there's Amara Possian for Trustee who is fantastic.

[King of Kensington]

Forum also polled the mayor race in each of the wards, and Tory is leading in all of them, though it is fairly close-ish in Toronto Centre. I reckon Keesmaat will win a few wards. Perhaps Davenport and Parkdale-High Park?

I think Keesmaat will do somewhat better among among North Toronto types and worse among "hipsters" relative to Olivia Chow.

[King of Kensington]

It looks like the pattern of the "municipal left" doing relatively better in the west end than in the east end held up again, even without a west end pol as the "progressive" mayoral candidate this time.