Ontario municipal elections, 2018 (Oct 22)

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, we definitely need a thread on this, now.

Nominations closed today across the province, but have been extended for Toronto council, because Doug Ford is promising to cut Toronto's council size down to 25 (from 47) mere months away from the election on the last day of nominations. So, they're going to have to go through nominations again, barring any legal ramifications, which I am sure there will be. The Toronto's clerk office has stated that it will be impossible to comply with the changes on such short notice. Fun!

Ford is also LITERALLY CANCELLING ELECTIONS for regional chair in York, Peel (where Patrick Brown was going to run), Muskoka and Niagara. All four regions were going to have direct elections for chair for the firs time, something other regions have been doing so for a while now.

[Hatman 🍁]

Most of the mayoral races were looking to be rather boring until today, where some last minute candidates declared their intentions.

In Toronto, it was looking like no one credible was going to run against John Tory, but former city planner Jennifer Keesmaat has entered the race, promising to secede the city from the rest of the province. So naturally she has my support   Also, white nationalist Faithy Goldy is running for mayor. She will split the far right vote with neo-nazi James Sears.

The deadline for mayoral nominations was not extended like it was for council, so none of the councillors who will now be forced to run against friends and colleagues will have the opportunity to run for mayor instead.


In Ottawa, it was also looking like no one credible was going run against the mayor, Jim Watson. However, today former city councillor Clive Doucet has entered the race. Doucet ran for mayor against Watson back in 2010, winning 15% of the vote. He's a progressive while Watson is very much in the middle. Doucet is a bit kooky though, and I'm not sure if I will even vote for him (I didn't in 2010).

[Hatman 🍁]

I guess the most interesting mayor race in the province will be Brampton, where disgraced former PC leader Patrick Brown has decided to run for mayor in (he was previously running for chair of Peel Region, but considering that election will be cancelled, he has switched to mayor). Brown doesn't even live in Brampton, but is popular among some of the minority community there. Also running in Brampton is former Conservative MP Bal Gosal and of course incumbent mayor Linda Jeffrey, who is a former Liberal MPP.

London will also be interesting as they will be using IRV to elect the mayor and council. It will be the first city in Ontario to do so. There will be 14 candidates for the top job, so voters are going to have fun ranking them. The incumbent mayor is not running for re-election. The best known candidate is former Conservative MP Ed Holder.

[Hatman 🍁]

Former city planner Jennifer Keesmaat has entered the race, promising to secede the city from the rest of the province. So naturally she has my support  

"Endorsed!" - everyone in Ontario not from Toronto

Heh. Well, I too would like my city to secede from Ontario. Would make more sense, as the national capital.

[Hatman 🍁]

I think John Tory will win pretty easily, wouldn't surprised if north of 60 percent due to name recognition. Faith Goldy will likely get less than 1 percent as asides from your hardcore Rebel media readers few know who she is and most who do find her viewpoints very disturbing.

I was wondering what people think about Patrick Brown's chances in Brampton. I think his chances would have been better in Barrie where he is well known. Although I wonder if a lot of progressives will vote for him just as a way to send a message to Doug Ford?

No. Progressives will vote for the incumbent Liberal mayor.

Not sure who will win though. It's Brampton, so ethnic cleavages could matter just as much as ideology.

[Hatman 🍁]

Also if you want to talk about bigots running, I believe Kevin J Johnston is running for mayor again in Mississauga, off course he will lose badly and be lucky to get 2%, quite probably under 1%.

For Hatman - Not sure if you followed this one closely, but remember Terry Kilrea who ran for mayor in Ottawa.  I believe he got something like 36% of the popular vote and if his twitter comments are anything to go on, he seems pretty far to the right.  Big Trump supporter although hasn't made any racist remarks like Faith Goldy that I can find, although doesn't mean he hasn't.

For far right candidates, in 1974, Don Andrews came in 2nd in Toronto, although David Crombie won by a landslide and faced no serious challenge.  Guessing it was a donkey vote as his name was first listed alphabetically so many who didn't like Crombie voted for him without realizing who he was.

I don't follow Terry Kilrea on Twitter, but I'm very familiar with his "political career". Makes a lot of sense that he's a #MAGA a$$hole now. No, he's not a white nationalist though. Interestingly we did have a white nationalist/nazi run in that election (2003) for mayor, Donna Upson. She won 0.7% of the vote.

Speaking of the 1974 Toronto mayoral race, I can't believe this was a thing...

https://twitter.com/paulisci/status/1023013367961640961

Don Andrews could've become mayor!

[Hatman 🍁]

Also if you want to talk about bigots running, I believe Kevin J Johnston is running for mayor again in Mississauga, off course he will lose badly and be lucky to get 2%, quite probably under 1%.

For Hatman - Not sure if you followed this one closely, but remember Terry Kilrea who ran for mayor in Ottawa.  I believe he got something like 36% of the popular vote and if his twitter comments are anything to go on, he seems pretty far to the right.  Big Trump supporter although hasn't made any racist remarks like Faith Goldy that I can find, although doesn't mean he hasn't.

For far right candidates, in 1974, Don Andrews came in 2nd in Toronto, although David Crombie won by a landslide and faced no serious challenge.  Guessing it was a donkey vote as his name was first listed alphabetically so many who didn't like Crombie voted for him without realizing who he was.

I don't follow Terry Kilrea on Twitter, but I'm very familiar with his "political career". Makes a lot of sense that he's a #MAGA a$$hole now. No, he's not a white nationalist though. Interestingly we did have a white nationalist/nazi run in that election (2003) for mayor, Donna Upson. She won 0.7% of the vote.

Speaking of the 1974 Toronto mayoral race, I can't believe this was a thing...

https://twitter.com/paulisci/status/1023013367961640961

Don Andrews could've become mayor!

Replacing the old mayor with the runner up isn't that outrageous if the city in question is a Victorian village. It was probably one of those outdated laws that never got taken  off the books.

Even for a village it's outrageous. The loser will always represent a minority of the public opinion.

[Hatman 🍁]

Anybody have a tab on how many defeated Liberal MPP's are running here as well as defeated Tory and NDP MP's from the 2015 election.

As far as I know, Chris Ballard is running for Mayor of Newmarket. Kathryn McGary is running for mayor of Cambridge. Steven Del Duca was supposed to run for regional council chair in York. I believe Han Dong is also running for Council.

Ballard is running for mayor Aurora, actually.

Here are some more:

Jim Bradley is running for regional council in Niagara.  Bill Mauro is running for mayor of Thunder Bay. Granville Anderson is running for Durham regional council. Dipika Damerla is running for Mississauga City Council. And Bob Delaney is "running" for Peel Region Chair, if that election is still going on.

And Michael Harris (who didn't run for re-election, because he was forced out of the PC party) is running for Waterloo regional council.

[Hatman 🍁]

First Forum poll of the Toronto mayoral election shows Tory up 70-30 over Keesmaat.

[Hatman 🍁]

Defeated Tories from 2015 running for municipal election:

- Mike Wallace is running for mayor of Burlington
- Ed Holder is running for mayor of London
- Bal Gosal is running for mayor of Brampton
- Brad Butt is running for city council in Mississauga

[Hatman 🍁]

I can't predict other city's municipal elections, as I don't live there, so I don't know. Might be tough for Holder to win in London though, because the have ranked ballots, and I don't think he can get 50% of the vote in a left-of-centre city like London.

[Hatman 🍁]

Anybody have a tab on how many defeated Liberal MPP's are running here as well as defeated Tory and NDP MP's from the 2015 election.

As far as I know, Chris Ballard is running for Mayor of Newmarket. Kathryn McGary is running for mayor of Cambridge. Steven Del Duca was supposed to run for regional council chair in York. I believe Han Dong is also running for Council.

Ballard is running for mayor Aurora, actually.

Here are some more:

Jim Bradley is running for regional council in Niagara.  Bill Mauro is running for mayor of Thunder Bay. Granville Anderson is running for Durham regional council. Dipika Damerla is running for Mississauga City Council. And Bob Delaney is "running" for Peel Region Chair, if that election is still going on.

And Michael Harris (who didn't run for re-election, because he was forced out of the PC party) is running for Waterloo regional council.

What's the competition like in Thunder Bay.  Unless they have a popular mayor, I think Bill Mauro has a fairly decent chance as he nearly won his riding and the Wynne government was very unpopular in the Thunder Bay area so I suspect the only reason he did as well as he did was personal popularity so I would think that would bode well for him.

The mayor (Keith Hobbs) isn't running for re-election, he's facing criminal charges.

Well all know how popular Mauro is in Thunder Bay. He should probably win. His main competition will likely be from former NDP MP Iain Angus.

[Hatman 🍁]

I did a poll.

https://twitter.com/EarlWashburn/status/1037804538953052160

[Hatman 🍁]

And here's Ottawa

https://twitter.com/ProbitInc/status/1038149051966021632

[Hatman 🍁]

The council reduction has been struck down in court!

[Hatman 🍁]

The province will of course appeal, and he can always use the notwithstanding clause as well, though that would be heading into uncharted territory.

[Hatman 🍁]

https://twitter.com/Travisdhanraj/status/1039173324423798784

[Hatman 🍁]

I attempted to also poll Brampton, but didn't get very many cases. Brown was in 2nd place, but the data is fairly meaningless, except to suggest it's probably a 3-way race between him, mayor Jeffrey and John Sprovieri.

[Hatman 🍁]

Of course Justin will do nothing.

[Hatman 🍁]

[Hatman 🍁]

I almost wonder if he wants chaos as I got the impression he is still bitter at the city council for not going along with his brother as mayor and wants to seek revenge.  Quite petty, but that seems to be the case. 

Uhh, ya think?

The man is a deranged lunatic.

[Hatman 🍁]

Mainstreet and Forum had her losing the old city of Toronto, but our poll had her winning. Ours was done online though, which might mean we covered a population harder to get with than IVR. If our poll was correct though, she should be able to win Parkdale-High Park, Davenport, Toronto-Danforth and Beaches-East York, at least.

[Hatman 🍁]

She can't possibly be as bad as Ottawa's token progressive mayoral candidate, Clive Doucet who is as kooky as they come, and isn't running a particularly good campaign. LRT to villages of less than 1000 people? Umm, ok.

When he ran for mayor in 2010, I did not vote for him (voted for a fringe candidate), but am considering voting for him this time as a protest against our current mayor.

[Hatman 🍁]

For those interested in Toronto Ward maps, I found these online:  http://goadstoronto.blogspot.com/2012/03/goads-1893-toronto-fire-insurance-map.html

Now I know where St. Paul's used to be.

Yes, I used a similar map when I attempted to come up with ward names for the 48 wards. *cries a little bit inside*

[Hatman 🍁]

Mainstreet is doing ward polls in Toronto. Considering they're now the size of ridings, they won't be entirely trashy (but still a bit trashy) like council polls usually are.

Beaches-East York: Former NDP MP Matthew Kellway is way ahead, at 56%
Humber River-Black Creek: Councillor Anthony Perruzza is in the lead with 30%, with Councillor (and crazy man) Giorgio Mammoliti and progressive challenger Tiffany Ford tied in second at 21%. This is very good news, because Mammoliti is a terrible human being and needs to go. Nice to see that the progressives (Perruzza and Ford) are not splitting the vote. Ford is not related to Doug Ford btw. There is another right wing candidate, Deanna Sgro, who is the daughter Liberal MP Judy Sgro. She's at 17%.
Scarborough-Agincourt: Jim Karygiannis leads Norm Kelly 47-44. Both are incumbent councillors and former Liberal MPs, though I think Karygiannis is far more right wing.
Toronto Centre: Councillor (and progressive) Kristyn Wong-Tam leads former Liberal MPP George Smitherman 44-28. Appointed councillor Lucy Troisi is far behind at 8%.
York South-Weston: Two right wing councillors are going at it; Frances Nunziata (sister of Liberal turned independent right wing MP John Nunziata) leads Frank DiGiorgio 40-30.