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  WI-Emerson Polling: Evers+7
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Author Topic: WI-Emerson Polling: Evers+7  (Read 1749 times)
Jeppe
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« on: July 30, 2018, 08:26:02 am »
« edited: July 30, 2018, 10:18:26 am by Jeppe »

Tony Evers - 48%
Scott Walker - 41%

Scott Walker Approval
40% Approval
46% Disapproval

Democratic Primary
Tony Evers - 30%
Kathleen Vinehout - 10%
Kelda Roys - 7%
Everybody else at or below 5%.

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Cory Booker
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« Reply #1 on: July 30, 2018, 08:30:01 am »

Safe D
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Zaybay
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« Reply #2 on: July 30, 2018, 08:30:22 am »

Wow, seems that the Marist poll that everyone was referring to as wrong, oversampling Ds, etc. has been collaborated by another polling firm. Could it be that Walker, is, gasp, not safe?! Nah, this poll is wrong too.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #3 on: July 30, 2018, 08:39:03 am »

Wow, seems that the Marist poll that everyone was referring to as wrong, oversampling Ds, etc. has been collaborated by another polling firm. Could it be that Walker, is, gasp, not safe?! Nah, this poll is wrong too.

TBF this is Emerson, so I’d be more skeptical of this than Marist
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Gass3268
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« Reply #4 on: July 30, 2018, 08:49:55 am »

Wow, seems that the Marist poll that everyone was referring to as wrong, oversampling Ds, etc. has been collaborated by another polling firm. Could it be that Walker, is, gasp, not safe?! Nah, this poll is wrong too.

TBF this is Emerson, so I’d be more skeptical of this than Marist

Emerson sucks, but their reliance on landlines (I know they have added an internet component to supplement cell phones) would actually work better in an older state like Wisconsin than others.
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Politician
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« Reply #5 on: July 30, 2018, 08:53:28 am »

Obviously false. Walker energizes the suburban conservatives like no else. Safe R, poll was rigged.

More seriously, this is Lean D and the Safe R Wisconsin theory is already starting to crumble.
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Skye
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« Reply #6 on: July 30, 2018, 08:59:00 am »

Wow, seems that the Marist poll that everyone was referring to as wrong, oversampling Ds, etc. has been collaborated by another polling firm. Could it be that Walker, is, gasp, not safe?! Nah, this poll is wrong too.

TBF this is Emerson, so I’d be more skeptical of this than Marist
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #7 on: July 30, 2018, 08:59:45 am »

Walker shouldn’t be underestimated, but there’s only so much he can outperform Vukmir (who’s likely to lose by double digits) and overcome the national environment. Still a Tossup for now though, and I think Marquette is more trustworthy than Marist or Emerson here.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #8 on: July 30, 2018, 09:08:54 am »

Walker is going the way of Rauner and they might lose six or 7 points
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« Reply #9 on: July 30, 2018, 09:21:29 am »

Fingers crossed and all hands on deck!
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mcmikk
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« Reply #10 on: July 30, 2018, 09:28:16 am »

But but but muh GOP stronghold! Walker should be safe! He's super popular!
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #11 on: July 30, 2018, 09:46:14 am »

The generic ballot was D+10, which, on it's own, would make WI-01 super competitive AND probably flips the state senate, D+10 seats in the assembly.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #12 on: July 30, 2018, 10:12:02 am »

The generic ballot was D+10, which, on it's own, would make WI-01 super competitive AND probably flips the state senate, D+10 seats in the assembly.

Are the Dem candidates in the SW Wisconsin seat and in Vukmir’s seat strong? Also am kinda concerned about Caleb Frostman holding on in a higher turnout envionment

Not sure, but I just read that Democrats do not have anyone running AD-01, which Frostman will probably dominate in his reelection campaign.
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Mondale
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« Reply #13 on: July 30, 2018, 10:39:57 am »

Scott Walker is finished
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Bagel23
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« Reply #14 on: July 30, 2018, 10:51:55 am »

Lets go son! I think Evers is more likely to be coattailed over than Cordray.
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Speaker YE
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« Reply #15 on: July 30, 2018, 10:58:01 am »

How possible is a D trifecta in the Badger state?

Lets go son! I think Evers is more likely to be coattailed over than Cordray.

Because Brown is the type of candidate who can outrun the Dem nominee since he has more crossover appeal due to retail politics and his opposition to free trade, I agree. With that said, why are we taking a poll by Emerson seriously? Because it's favorable to Democrats?
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Zaybay
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« Reply #16 on: July 30, 2018, 10:59:49 am »

Lets go son! I think Evers is more likely to be coattailed over than Cordray.

Because Brown is the type of candidate who can outrun the Dem nominee since he has more crossover appeal due to retail politics and his opposition to free trade, I agree. With that said, why are we taking a poll by Emerson seriously? Because it's favorable to Democrats?

Because of correlation. The Marist poll, which is better quality than this one, had the race at a double digit difference. It was a bit unbelievable, and many wanted other polls to show the same difference. And, well, here it is.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #17 on: July 30, 2018, 11:01:23 am »

The generic ballot was D+10, which, on it's own, would make WI-01 super competitive AND probably flips the state senate, D+10 seats in the assembly.

Are the Dem candidates in the SW Wisconsin seat and in Vukmir’s seat strong? Also am kinda concerned about Caleb Frostman holding on in a higher turnout envionment

Not sure, but I just read that Democrats do not have anyone running AD-01, which Frostman will probably dominate in his reelection campaign.


Ugh... yeah, but there is an "independent" running who looks pretty DSA - apparently she reached out to the Dems at the last minute (like, a day before filing) and "they didn't get back to her in time" so she decided to run as an indy.

Everyone looks like a dumbass there.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #18 on: July 30, 2018, 11:04:28 am »

The generic ballot was D+10, which, on it's own, would make WI-01 super competitive AND probably flips the state senate, D+10 seats in the assembly.

Are the Dem candidates in the SW Wisconsin seat and in Vukmir’s seat strong? Also am kinda concerned about Caleb Frostman holding on in a higher turnout envionment

Not sure, but I just read that Democrats do not have anyone running AD-01, which Frostman will probably dominate in his reelection campaign.


Ugh... yeah, but there is an "independent" running who looks pretty DSA - apparently she reached out to the Dems at the last minute (like, a day before filing) and "they didn't get back to her in time" so she decided to run as an indy.

Everyone looks like a dumbass there.

Oh no! Thats key to winning the state senate. Is the D party officially backing her and giving her money?

Then again, it may help to be Indie, and have no D next to her. But, yeah, this is a colossal mistake.
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Bagel23
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« Reply #19 on: July 30, 2018, 11:14:08 am »

How possible is a D trifecta in the Badger state?

Lets go son! I think Evers is more likely to be coattailed over than Cordray.

Because Brown is the type of candidate who can outrun the Dem nominee since he has more crossover appeal due to retail politics and his opposition to free trade, I agree. With that said, why are we taking a poll by Emerson seriously? Because it's favorable to Democrats?

Because Evers or generic D leads in most polls while the opposite is true for God tier hype beast DeWine.
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Wisconsin SC Race 2019
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« Reply #20 on: July 30, 2018, 11:21:56 am »

Evers is still below 50 in the state. If the undecideds break Walker's way in the WOW area, this little lead would mean nothing in November.
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« Reply #21 on: July 30, 2018, 11:24:30 am »

Evers is still below 50 in the state. If the undecideds break Walker's way in the WOW area, this little lead would mean nothing in November.
How do you know the undecideds are in WOW? Even so, Evers only needs 2% of them to win.
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Ses
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« Reply #22 on: July 30, 2018, 11:31:23 am »

I think some people missed one part of the thread title.

It says “WI-Emerson Polling: Evers +7
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PA is Lean D
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« Reply #23 on: July 30, 2018, 11:43:34 am »

Walker probably won’t lose by that much, but at this point, he’s more likely to lose reelection than win. Baldwin is going to crush Vuckmir and that will coattail Evers to the finish line with her.
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Xing
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« Reply #24 on: July 30, 2018, 11:58:18 am »

I guess we´re back to the ¨Walker is doomed¨part of the ¨Walker is safe/doomed¨cycle. While this is Emerson, and thus should be taken with several million grains of salt, more polls have shown Walker behind than ahead, and he´s almost certainly not going to win if Baldwin wins by double digits, which is looking likely.

Certainly not Safe D, and Democrats shouldn´t take this race for granted even if more polls show Walker losing badly, but if Marquette shows him down by a similar margin, I may move this to Lean D. Walker´s not doomed, but he´s definitely in big trouble.
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