WI-Emerson Polling: Evers+7

[Skye]

I guess we´re back to the ¨Walker is doomed¨part of the ¨Walker is safe/doomed¨cycle. While this is Emerson, and thus should be taken with several million grains of salt, more polls have shown Walker behind than ahead, and he´s almost certainly not going to win if Baldwin wins by double digits, which is looking likely.

Certainly not Safe D, and Democrats shouldn´t take this race for granted even if more polls show Walker losing badly, but if Marquette shows him down by a similar margin, I may move this to Lean D. Walker´s not doomed, but he´s definitely in big trouble.

An actually reasonable and grounded take on the race? Get out of town!

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

I guess we´re back to the ¨Walker is doomed¨part of the ¨Walker is safe/doomed¨cycle. While this is Emerson, and thus should be taken with several million grains of salt, more polls have shown Walker behind than ahead, and he´s almost certainly not going to win if Baldwin wins by double digits, which is looking likely.

Certainly not Safe D, and Democrats shouldn´t take this race for granted even if more polls show Walker losing badly, but if Marquette shows him down by a similar margin, I may move this to Lean D. Walker´s not doomed, but he´s definitely in big trouble.

Walker has been the target of every smug red avatar on here. He has survived so much (even a recall in an election year) and was able to lead to the death of the Wisconsin labor movement. I'd wish he'd go, but he has always been underestimated. Always.

[Politician]

I guess we´re back to the ¨Walker is doomed¨part of the ¨Walker is safe/doomed¨cycle. While this is Emerson, and thus should be taken with several million grains of salt, more polls have shown Walker behind than ahead, and he´s almost certainly not going to win if Baldwin wins by double digits, which is looking likely.

Certainly not Safe D, and Democrats shouldn´t take this race for granted even if more polls show Walker losing badly, but if Marquette shows him down by a similar margin, I may move this to Lean D. Walker´s not doomed, but he´s definitely in big trouble.

Walker has been the target of every smug red avatar on here. He has survived so much (even a recall in an election year) and was able to lead to the death of the Wisconsin labor movement. I'd wish he'd go, but he has always been underestimated. Always.

Hr would have lost, had the recall been held on Election Day. Evers is also a much better candidate than Barrett or Burke and 2018 will be better for Democrats than 2014 or even 2012.

[libertpaulian]

I guess we´re back to the ¨Walker is doomed¨part of the ¨Walker is safe/doomed¨cycle. While this is Emerson, and thus should be taken with several million grains of salt, more polls have shown Walker behind than ahead, and he´s almost certainly not going to win if Baldwin wins by double digits, which is looking likely.

Certainly not Safe D, and Democrats shouldn´t take this race for granted even if more polls show Walker losing badly, but if Marquette shows him down by a similar margin, I may move this to Lean D. Walker´s not doomed, but he´s definitely in big trouble.

Walker has been the target of every smug red avatar on here. He has survived so much (even a recall in an election year) and was able to lead to the death of the Wisconsin labor movement. I'd wish he'd go, but he has always been underestimated. Always.

According to the old folklore, even cats only have nine lives.  Governor Walker's good luck can't last forever.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Yes Emerson isn't good polling only landlines...but that means they're R-skewed if anything.

Bye bye Walker.

[Gass3268]

Yes Emerson isn't good polling only landlines...but that means they're R-skewed if anything.

Bye bye Walker.

They have an online component now to supplement cellphones, still not the best.

[BudgieForce]

Yes Emerson isn't good polling only landlines...but that means they're R-skewed if anything.

Bye bye Walker.

They have an online component now to supplement cellphones, still not the best.

A SurveyMonkey online component. Whatever that means.

[Tender Branson]

RCP somehow still considers WI to be a "tossup" and AZ/GA to be "lean GOP", when evidence clearly suggests otherwise ...

[Zaybay]

RCP somehow still considers WI to be a "tossup" and AZ/GA to be "lean GOP", when evidence clearly suggests otherwise ...

It actually used to be lean R for WI, but they moved it to tossup after the Marist poll.

[Former Kentuckian]

The generic ballot was D+10, which, on it's own, would make WI-01 super competitive AND probably flips the state senate, D+10 seats in the assembly.

Are the Dem candidates in the SW Wisconsin seat and in Vukmir’s seat strong? Also am kinda concerned about Caleb Frostman holding on in a higher turnout envionment

Not sure, but I just read that Democrats do not have anyone running AD-01, which Frostman will probably dominate in his reelection campaign.

Ugh... yeah, but there is an "independent" running who looks pretty DSA - apparently she reached out to the Dems at the last minute (like, a day before filing) and "they didn't get back to her in time" so she decided to run as an indy.

Everyone looks like a dumbass there.

You're right. Her name is Roberta Thelen and she's not a complete nobody in the area, but it's still worrisome: https://doorcountypulse.com/baileys-harbor-supervisor-roberta-thelen-to-challenge-kitchens/

Surprisingly, she's using Hillary's 2016 slogan "Stronger Together." And she does seem to be out canvassing and putting up yard signs, so fingers crossed: www.robertathelen.com

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He was also reelected during Obama years, where GOP arent a threat to progressives, as long as Dems hold the bureaucracy. Since, Trump, in a progressive state like WI, abortion rights are dear and Kavanagh is a threat

[Nyvin]

Scott Walker has never had to face an election while a Republican was in the White House,  he can very easily go down this year.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Scott Walker has never had to face an election while a Republican was in the White House,  he can very easily go down this year.

[IceSpear]

Is there anything that could've caused Walker to collapse in the past month?

[Progressive Pessimist]

But but but muh GOP stronghold! Walker should be safe! He's super popular!

THREE TIMES IN FOUR YEARS!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Is there anything that could've caused Walker to collapse in the past month?

Yes, the House is moving in the Direction of Dems, and so goes WI, MI and Pa that went with Trump in 2016. Also, Trump isnt the average GOP. Throw norms out window. Like Dems winning OK and Edmonson who is a Brad Henry

[brand_allen]

We've had three public, independent surveys released of the Wisconsin Governor race since June. Two of them come from excellent pollsters (Marquette Law and Marist), the other from a decent pollster (Emerson - they receive a B+ letter grade from Five Thirty Eight, despite their landline-only + online panel methodology).

The average right now is Evers +6, though the range is wide (anywhere from Evers +13 to Walker +4).

Emerson, 7/26-28: Evers 48%, Walker 41%
Marist, 7/15-19, Evers 54%, Walker 41%
Marquette, 6/13-17, Evers 44%, Walker 48%
Average, 6/13-7/28: Evers 49%, Walker 43%

[pbrower2a]

RCP somehow still considers WI to be a "tossup" and AZ/GA to be "lean GOP", when evidence clearly suggests otherwise ...

Later polls are generally more reliable, as shown in 2016. No, they may tell us something even if they seem like outliers.

We all saw the Marist polls of Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, and its polls suggest that Trump is toxic. It's usually two terms for a State governor in anything near a 50-50 state. Third-term and successor campaigns usually fail.

Walker started with an edge, but that edge is gone. Incumbency is worthless when voters tire of one. At this point he needs to be in the mid-forties in a matchup with a challenger for November to have a chance of winning with a shrewd and spirited campaign, even if he is behind. He will probably lose about 52-47,

[Mr. Illini]

I'm a believer. Tilt D.

If this happens, it will be massive icing on the cake this November. The guy is everything that Midwestern values aren't.

[Dr. Arch]

I'm a believer. Tilt D.

If this happens, it will be massive icing on the cake this November. The guy is everything that Midwestern values aren't.

The WOW Suburbs are a special kind of hell.

[IceSpear]

New Poll: Wisconsin Governor by Emerson College on 2018-07-28

Summary: D: 48%, R: 41%, U: 11%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details