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Author Topic: AL-GOV: Ivey +14  (Read 729 times)
Doctor Imperialism
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« on: July 30, 2018, 11:19:23 pm »

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BundouYMB
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« Reply #1 on: July 30, 2018, 11:23:55 pm »

More proof Morning Consult is garbage. If Ivey had a +45 approval rating or whatever she'd be up more than 14.
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Prolocutor Bagel23
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« Reply #2 on: July 30, 2018, 11:24:04 pm »

Wow, that's really bad for Ivey haha XD! Also I think Maddox narrowly carries Tuscaloosa county.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #3 on: July 30, 2018, 11:25:49 pm »

yikes, this was a seat that the former governor won by almost 30 points four years ago
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Prolocutor Bagel23
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« Reply #4 on: July 30, 2018, 11:29:00 pm »

yikes, this was a seat that the former governor won by almost 30 points four years ago

Robert Jailian Bentley.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #5 on: July 30, 2018, 11:31:49 pm »

More proof Morning Consult is garbage. If Ivey had a +45 approval rating or whatever she'd be up more than 14.

I buy that Ivey has high approval ratings AND that those approval ratings are incredibly soft. Like only 10-12% strongly approving of the job she's doing. So a non-negligible number of voters are saying they approve of her but are also at least willing if not already voting for Maddox.

I was disappointed when things turned out as they did and Maddox didn't get to face a very damaged GOP frontrunner from a primary as we thought things would go if Bentley had attempted to serve out his term, but I feel like this race is going to be closer than people expect because people don't actually have strong feelings about Ivey but do have strong negative feelings toward the status quo and thus will vote for the non-Ivey candidate.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #6 on: July 30, 2018, 11:49:52 pm »

If true - very decent numbers for Maddox. Democrats seldom get more, then 40%, in Alabama (except when running against crazies), and there is still more then 3 month before election.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #7 on: July 31, 2018, 12:10:31 am »

Safe R
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #8 on: July 31, 2018, 01:28:33 am »

Maddox is probably the best the Dems have in Alabama, so I believe these numbers. But obviously this race is safe R. Keep him around as future pedophile insurance.
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Politician
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« Reply #9 on: July 31, 2018, 02:24:27 am »

Likely R, Ivey wins by 10-14.
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« Reply #10 on: July 31, 2018, 02:53:30 am »

Likely R, Ivey wins by 10-14.
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Raging moderate. Big fan of "mavericks" (in all parties) and big non-lover of "reliable foot soldiers" (in all parties as well). Very much "anti-tea party". Political Matrix - E: -0.26, S: -3.48. My first "enemy": "far-right". My second "enemy": "far-left"))))
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« Reply #11 on: July 31, 2018, 07:43:05 am »

Remember when Kay Ivey said she believed that the pedophilia allegations against Roy Moore were reputable, but that she would vote for him anyways.
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« Reply #12 on: July 31, 2018, 08:04:06 am »

I think this is probably about right. Ivey probably wins by a hair more in the end
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Alabama_Indy10
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« Reply #13 on: July 31, 2018, 09:17:51 am »

Wow, that's really bad for Ivey haha XD! Also I think Maddox narrowly carries Tuscaloosa county.

I think he'll carry Tuscaloosa County more than narrowly.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #14 on: July 31, 2018, 09:20:52 am »

Wow, that's really bad for Ivey haha XD! Also I think Maddox narrowly carries Tuscaloosa county.

I think he'll carry Tuscaloosa County more than narrowly.

Thoughts on final statewide margin?
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Alabama_Indy10
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« Reply #15 on: July 31, 2018, 09:25:29 am »

Wow, that's really bad for Ivey haha XD! Also I think Maddox narrowly carries Tuscaloosa county.

I think he'll carry Tuscaloosa County more than narrowly.

Thoughts on final statewide margin?

I think he'll do better than Sparks in 2010. Sparks lost 58-42%, so I think it'll be about 56-44%. Maddox is pretty popular in the state.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #16 on: July 31, 2018, 10:11:36 am »

Wow, that's really bad for Ivey haha XD! Also I think Maddox narrowly carries Tuscaloosa county.

I think he'll carry Tuscaloosa County more than narrowly.

Thoughts on final statewide margin?

I think he'll do better than Sparks in 2010. Sparks lost 58-42%, so I think it'll be about 56-44%. Maddox is pretty popular in the state.

Thatís probably a pretty reasonable result
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OneJ
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« Reply #17 on: July 31, 2018, 03:07:49 pm »

I still donít understand why Ivey got some strong challengers in the primary since sheís pretty popular, but I assume as someone mentioned she had soft approvals.

Anyways, although Morning Consult can be a bad pollster on occasion, the result is actually not far off from recent Governerís races in Alabama. I still wish Maddox the best though.
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Fmr. Pres. Griff
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« Reply #18 on: July 31, 2018, 03:12:55 pm »

I keep saying it: GOP women running against Democratic men in Southern states with relatively recent Democratic voting habits are going to under-perform this cycle.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #19 on: July 31, 2018, 03:23:51 pm »

I keep saying it: GOP women running against Democratic men in Southern states with relatively recent Democratic voting habits are going to under-perform this cycle.
Kristi Noem is having trouble with Billie Sutton😁
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #20 on: July 31, 2018, 06:35:06 pm »

Maddox is probably the best the Dems have in Alabama, so I believe these numbers. But obviously this race is safe R. Keep him around as future pedophile insurance.
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #21 on: August 03, 2018, 04:11:02 pm »

New Poll: Alabama Governor by Other Source on 2018-07-25

Summary: D: 42%, R: 56%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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