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  FL-Sen, Mason-Dixon: Scott in the lead
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Author Topic: FL-Sen, Mason-Dixon: Scott in the lead  (Read 2893 times)
krazen1211
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« on: July 31, 2018, 07:37:23 am »

https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2018/07/31/scott-edges-nelson-by-3-in-senate-race-poll-534695

Scott 47
Nelson 44

Great poll.
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yeah_93
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« Reply #1 on: July 31, 2018, 07:40:11 am »

Still a Tossup.
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Councilor Zaybay
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« Reply #2 on: July 31, 2018, 07:42:42 am »

The last poll these guys did was of Southern Hispanic Floridians, and got Scott+3, so I am not really inclined to put much stock in a B- Pollster.
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Senator ON Progressive
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« Reply #3 on: July 31, 2018, 07:46:43 am »

The last poll these guys did was of Southern Hispanic Floridians, and got Scott+3, so I am not really inclined to put much stock in a B- Pollster.

Mason-Dixon had Romney ahead by 6 in the I-4 corridor in 2012 (he lost it by 6), so yeah. They're not worth taking seriously.
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superbudgie1582
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« Reply #4 on: July 31, 2018, 07:58:45 am »

Scott has a MoE lead. He's also outspending Nelson 3 to 1. I think it'll be close, but the national environment will be enough to carry Nelson to the finish line.
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Devils30
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« Reply #5 on: July 31, 2018, 08:08:39 am »

A lot of these polls have Trump’s approval way higher in Florida compared to other states he did similarly in such as Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Wonder if this is true or like 2016 where Iowa’s poor Hillary showing foreshadowed her problems in Wisconsin yet pollsters missed it. If he’s 40-42% nationally you’d expect closer to 42-43 in Florida not 46-47.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #6 on: July 31, 2018, 08:10:50 am »

Scott has a MoE lead. He's also outspending Nelson 3 to 1. I think it'll be close, but the national environment will be enough to carry Nelson to the finish line.

Yeah, you'd think he'd be up by more given the spending discrepancy.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #7 on: July 31, 2018, 08:12:18 am »

A lot of these polls have Trump’s approval way higher in Florida compared to other states he did similarly in such as Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Wonder if this is true or like 2016 where Iowa’s poor Hillary showing foreshadowed her problems in Wisconsin yet pollsters missed it. If he’s 40-42% nationally you’d expect closer to 42-43 in Florida not 46-47.

Florida has fairly unique demographics that aren’t replicable elsewhere, though, unlike Iowa’s similarities to its neighbors.

That said this is plainly a Tossup race. It’ll be interesting to see what the numbers do once the spending discrepancy goes down
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2016
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« Reply #8 on: July 31, 2018, 08:22:20 am »
« Edited: July 31, 2018, 08:26:47 am by 2016 »

14 weeks to the Election. And btw I'm not buying all the Media Crap about the National Environment at this Point. We know how that turned out in 2016. Democrats in Florida have to first show that they can win Races in Florida in a MidTerm. They haven't done that at all.

Race is a TOSS UP but I wouldn't entirely be shocked if Scott pulls this out. Time to sent different people to Washington.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #9 on: July 31, 2018, 08:23:40 am »

Still a tossup, but for the moment, it looks like Bill Nelson is the most vulnerable senate Dem this cycle. Manchin and Tester have better chances to win reelection. Donnelly, McCaskill and Heitkamp are in equally positions.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #10 on: July 31, 2018, 08:27:05 am »

https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2018/07/31/scott-edges-nelson-by-3-in-senate-race-poll-534695

Scott 47
Nelson 44

Great poll.

Has your kiddie diddler conceded yet?
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superbudgie1582
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« Reply #11 on: July 31, 2018, 08:31:56 am »

14 weeks to the Election. And btw I'm not buying all the Media Crap about the National Environment at this Point. We know how that turned out in 2016. Democrats in Florida have to first show that they can win Races in Florida in a MidTerm. They haven't done that at all.

Race is a TOSS UP but I wouldn't entirely be shocked if Scott pulls this out. Time to sent different people to Washington.

Well, this is the first midterm for a Republican president in about 12 years. It hard to say democrats cant win in a Florida midterm when the only recent history is when Obama was president.
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« Reply #12 on: July 31, 2018, 08:32:11 am »

Img
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Councilor Zaybay
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« Reply #13 on: July 31, 2018, 08:34:46 am »

14 weeks to the Election. And btw I'm not buying all the Media Crap about the National Environment at this Point. We know how that turned out in 2016. Democrats in Florida have to first show that they can win Races in Florida in a MidTerm. They haven't done that at all.

Race is a TOSS UP but I wouldn't entirely be shocked if Scott pulls this out. Time to sent different people to Washington.
You say as Democrats have been over preforming in the entirety of 2017 and 2018, including in races in FL, where they have won 2 seats from Rs, and have defended vulnerable ones by increasingly larger margins.

I think that the reason Scott is ahead is the money discrepancy. Even though Nelson has dough, hes not using it, where as Scott is practically burning it. If Scott is only leading by 2-3 in a rather poor pollster that has favored him the entire election, then I think this is tilt-D.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #14 on: July 31, 2018, 08:37:15 am »

14 weeks to the Election. And btw I'm not buying all the Media Crap about the National Environment at this Point. We know how that turned out in 2016. Democrats in Florida have to first show that they can win Races in Florida in a MidTerm. They haven't done that at all.

Race is a TOSS UP but I wouldn't entirely be shocked if Scott pulls this out. Time to sent different people to Washington.
You say as Democrats have been over preforming in the entirety of 2017 and 2018, including in races in FL, where they have won 2 seats from Rs, and have defended vulnerable ones by increasingly larger margins.

I think that the reason Scott is ahead is the money discrepancy. Even though Nelson has dough, hes not using it, where as Scott is practically burning it. If Scott is only leading by 2-3 in a rather poor pollster that has favored him the entire election, then I think this is tilt-D.

TBF the last Mason Dixon poll did have it Nelson +1 but that was before Scott entered I
Believe
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sjoyce
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« Reply #15 on: July 31, 2018, 08:37:42 am »

Yeah, this feels accurate. Hard to see the race as being better than a tossup, probably tilt R if we're being fair.
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CityofSinners
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« Reply #16 on: July 31, 2018, 10:08:52 am »

Scott has a MoE lead. He's also outspending Nelson 3 to 1. I think it'll be close, but the national environment will be enough to carry Nelson to the finish line.
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bilaps
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« Reply #17 on: July 31, 2018, 10:23:19 am »

The last poll these guys did was of Southern Hispanic Floridians, and got Scott+3, so I am not really inclined to put much stock in a B- Pollster.

Mason-Dixon had Romney ahead by 6 in the I-4 corridor in 2012 (he lost it by 6), so yeah. They're not worth taking seriously.

lol

all polls had hillary winning in michigan and wisconsin, let's not ever take any poll seriously
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Bagel23
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« Reply #18 on: July 31, 2018, 11:20:13 am »

Wake up Bill come the frig on!
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2016
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« Reply #19 on: July 31, 2018, 11:20:34 am »

14 weeks to the Election. And btw I'm not buying all the Media Crap about the National Environment at this Point. We know how that turned out in 2016. Democrats in Florida have to first show that they can win Races in Florida in a MidTerm. They haven't done that at all.

Race is a TOSS UP but I wouldn't entirely be shocked if Scott pulls this out. Time to sent different people to Washington.
You say as Democrats have been over preforming in the entirety of 2017 and 2018, including in races in FL, where they have won 2 seats from Rs, and have defended vulnerable ones by increasingly larger margins.

I think that the reason Scott is ahead is the money discrepancy. Even though Nelson has dough, hes not using it, where as Scott is practically burning it. If Scott is only leading by 2-3 in a rather poor pollster that has favored him the entire election, then I think this is tilt-D.

You are hilarious. Who cares about State Legislature Races? Not me. A General MidTerm Election Vote is vastly different than winning some Special Elections. Democrats still haven't proved that they have fixed their MidTerm Turnout Problem they had in 2010 and 2014. The RNC has catched the Democrats in 2014 & 2016 with their GOTV Operations and they may yet save a lot of vulnerable Republicans in Congressional, Senate and Governor Races around the Country incl. Florida because of that.
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Olawakandi
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« Reply #20 on: July 31, 2018, 11:32:33 am »

14 weeks to the Election. And btw I'm not buying all the Media Crap about the National Environment at this Point. We know how that turned out in 2016. Democrats in Florida have to first show that they can win Races in Florida in a MidTerm. They haven't done that at all.

Race is a TOSS UP but I wouldn't entirely be shocked if Scott pulls this out. Time to sent different people to Washington.
You say as Democrats have been over preforming in the entirety of 2017 and 2018, including in races in FL, where they have won 2 seats from Rs, and have defended vulnerable ones by increasingly larger margins.

I think that the reason Scott is ahead is the money discrepancy. Even though Nelson has dough, hes not using it, where as Scott is practically burning it. If Scott is only leading by 2-3 in a rather poor pollster that has favored him the entire election, then I think this is tilt-D.

You are hilarious. Who cares about State Legislature Races? Not me. A General MidTerm Election Vote is vastly different than winning some Special Elections. Democrats still haven't proved that they have fixed their MidTerm Turnout Problem they had in 2010 and 2014. The RNC has catched the Democrats in 2014 & 2016 with their GOTV Operations and they may yet save a lot of vulnerable Republicans in Congressional, Senate and Governor Races around the Country incl. Florida because of that.

The Dems haven't fixed their midterm turnout problem, the young and ethnic minorities who protested Trumps victory, are the ones whom are economically depressed, unemployed or underemployed
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2016
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« Reply #21 on: July 31, 2018, 01:32:28 pm »

14 weeks to the Election. And btw I'm not buying all the Media Crap about the National Environment at this Point. We know how that turned out in 2016. Democrats in Florida have to first show that they can win Races in Florida in a MidTerm. They haven't done that at all.

Race is a TOSS UP but I wouldn't entirely be shocked if Scott pulls this out. Time to sent different people to Washington.
You say as Democrats have been over preforming in the entirety of 2017 and 2018, including in races in FL, where they have won 2 seats from Rs, and have defended vulnerable ones by increasingly larger margins.

I think that the reason Scott is ahead is the money discrepancy. Even though Nelson has dough, hes not using it, where as Scott is practically burning it. If Scott is only leading by 2-3 in a rather poor pollster that has favored him the entire election, then I think this is tilt-D.

You are hilarious. Who cares about State Legislature Races? Not me. A General MidTerm Election Vote is vastly different than winning some Special Elections. Democrats still haven't proved that they have fixed their MidTerm Turnout Problem they had in 2010 and 2014. The RNC has catched the Democrats in 2014 & 2016 with their GOTV Operations and they may yet save a lot of vulnerable Republicans in Congressional, Senate and Governor Races around the Country incl. Florida because of that.

The Dems haven't fixed their midterm turnout problem, the young and ethnic minorities who protested Trumps victory, are the ones whom are economically depressed, unemployed or underemployed

TBH, I think the Main Reason why Democrats are doing reasonable well right now is because the Republican Base is half asleep. That explains Democrats being only down 4 in SD-GOV or 2 ahead in GA-GOV. The Question then becomes: How can Republicans & Trump energize their Base. One way to do it is indeed doing a Govt. Shutdown over the Border Wall.

Once the Republican Base gets energized & excited these big Battleground Governor, Senate Races as well as the Congressional Ballot Test will start even out somewhat and then Nelson could be in big trouble in this Race here.
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bronz4141
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« Reply #22 on: July 31, 2018, 01:42:29 pm »

Tossup race.

Nelson will have to earn reelection.

The Parkland shooting is not changing minds either.

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Councilor Zaybay
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« Reply #23 on: July 31, 2018, 01:59:22 pm »

14 weeks to the Election. And btw I'm not buying all the Media Crap about the National Environment at this Point. We know how that turned out in 2016. Democrats in Florida have to first show that they can win Races in Florida in a MidTerm. They haven't done that at all.

Race is a TOSS UP but I wouldn't entirely be shocked if Scott pulls this out. Time to sent different people to Washington.
You say as Democrats have been over preforming in the entirety of 2017 and 2018, including in races in FL, where they have won 2 seats from Rs, and have defended vulnerable ones by increasingly larger margins.

I think that the reason Scott is ahead is the money discrepancy. Even though Nelson has dough, hes not using it, where as Scott is practically burning it. If Scott is only leading by 2-3 in a rather poor pollster that has favored him the entire election, then I think this is tilt-D.

You are hilarious. Who cares about State Legislature Races? Not me. A General MidTerm Election Vote is vastly different than winning some Special Elections. Democrats still haven't proved that they have fixed their MidTerm Turnout Problem they had in 2010 and 2014. The RNC has catched the Democrats in 2014 & 2016 with their GOTV Operations and they may yet save a lot of vulnerable Republicans in Congressional, Senate and Governor Races around the Country incl. Florida because of that.

The Dems haven't fixed their midterm turnout problem, the young and ethnic minorities who protested Trumps victory, are the ones whom are economically depressed, unemployed or underemployed

TBH, I think the Main Reason why Democrats are doing reasonable well right now is because the Republican Base is half asleep. That explains Democrats being only down 4 in SD-GOV or 2 ahead in GA-GOV. The Question then becomes: How can Republicans & Trump energize their Base. One way to do it is indeed doing a Govt. Shutdown over the Border Wall.

Once the Republican Base gets energized & excited these big Battleground Governor, Senate Races as well as the Congressional Ballot Test will start even out somewhat and then Nelson could be in big trouble in this Race here.
Im very sorry to break it to you, but in most studies and surveys, the Republicans are as enegized as they were in 2016, 2014, and 2010. The key difference is that the Democrats are now more energized, and thats a problem when they have a larger base.

The Indie vote, that Rs have won in midterms and presidential elections, has also swung D, and is what is allowing Democrats to win in odd areas by large margins. A shutdown/borderwall conflict may energize more Rs, but it will also push off more Is and energize more Ds. The best strategy for Rs, as Mitch pointed out, is to do nothing, let the anger subside and let the Ds become less motivated. Of course, that didnt work out.
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« Reply #24 on: July 31, 2018, 02:34:09 pm »

Tossup race
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