OR-Gravis: Tied race

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Brown won fairly handily in 2016. She is probably in decent shape for re-election, even if it's by a smaller margin. I'm not too worried about this one.

Shes in a very similar situation as Janet Mills, and its a pickup opportunity for GOP

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Btw, we all love to talk about how "inelastic" states like Maryland or Mississippi are, but I’d argue that the West Coast is probably the most inelastic and polarized region in the country. It’s definitely harder for a Republican to win a gubernatorial race in WA/OR/CA than in, say, MD or NJ.

There are currently Republican Secretaries of State in Washington and Oregon and a Republican Treasurer in Washington. There haven’t been Democrats elected statewide in SC, GA, TN, OK, TX, UT, AZ, KS, SD, WY and ID in decade or more.

I do Predict Normal trends wont hold this year; however AZ, TN, KS were states where 2006 wave was, with FL ripe to flip with GRAHAM, who is K. Sinema😁 While Walker can hold on and Brown or Mills can lose

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

That race already happened.

Back in 2012, when Brown ran against Bühler in the Sec. of State race.

She defeated him by 8 points.

Why would this change in 6 years to make it a tie ?

Brown was an unknown then, and was not nearly as far to the left as she is now. Also since it was not a Gubernatorial race it barely got covered at all(by ads or the media) so it likely had far more partisan voting than a gubernatorial race does.

Brown tracking to the left in a year with a strong national anti-R tide isn't going to cost her any meaningful number of voters.

Its a Governors race not a Senate one.

Right... they aren't independent of each other. Votes will be highly correlated -- someone who votes a certain way for Senate is likely to vote the same way for Governor. I'm not sure I understand your point.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Btw, we all love to talk about how "inelastic" states like Maryland or Mississippi are, but I’d argue that the West Coast is probably the most inelastic and polarized region in the country. It’s definitely harder for a Republican to win a gubernatorial race in WA/OR/CA than in, say, MD or NJ.

There are currently Republican Secretaries of State in Washington and Oregon and a Republican Treasurer in Washington. There haven’t been Democrats elected statewide in SC, GA, TN, OK, TX, UT, AZ, KS, SD, WY and ID in decade or more.

I do Predict Normal trends wont hold this year; however AZ, TN, KS were states where 2006 wave was, with FL ripe to flip with GRAHAM, who is K. Sinema😁 While Walker can hold on and Brown or Mills can lose

Graham=Sinema?  What?  Is that what you're saying?

[Bojack Horseman]

I’ll believe it when I see it. The only reason the Republican own the SoS race in 2016 was because the Democrat was totally cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs crazy.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Brown won fairly handily in 2016. She is probably in decent shape for re-election, even if it's by a smaller margin. I'm not too worried about this one.

Pierce is a worse candidate than Buehler and 2016 happened with Presidential Election turnout

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Btw, we all love to talk about how "inelastic" states like Maryland or Mississippi are, but I’d argue that the West Coast is probably the most inelastic and polarized region in the country. It’s definitely harder for a Republican to win a gubernatorial race in WA/OR/CA than in, say, MD or NJ.

There are currently Republican Secretaries of State in Washington and Oregon and a Republican Treasurer in Washington. There haven’t been Democrats elected statewide in SC, GA, TN, OK, TX, UT, AZ, KS, SD, WY and ID in decade or more.

I do Predict Normal trends wont hold this year; however AZ, TN, KS were states where 2006 wave was, with FL ripe to flip with GRAHAM, who is K. Sinema😁 While Walker can hold on and Brown or Mills can lose

Graham=Sinema?  What?  Is that what you're saying?

She's appears to be centrist woman

[Dr. MB]

Oregon’s inelastic. Brown will win by about 5 points. Although I like Buehler and he’s just about as left-wing as you can get for a Republican these days, similarly moderate Republicans like Dudley have failed to win even in 2010, so I don’t really see him winning in this environment.

[NOVA Green]

Oregon’s inelastic. Brown will win by about 5 points. Although I like Buehler and he’s just about as left-wing as you can get for a Republican these days, similarly moderate Republicans like Dudley have failed to win even in 2010, so I don’t really see him winning in this environment.

Pretty much this....

Trump basically maxed out the small town and rural Oregon vote in '16, and the only way a Pub would make it close to a Statewide race would be make the PDX burbs somewhat competitive...

Not really seeing that happen with Trump waving the banner of the Modern National Republican Party....

[OSR stands with Israel]

Oregon’s inelastic. Brown will win by about 5 points. Although I like Buehler and he’s just about as left-wing as you can get for a Republican these days, similarly moderate Republicans like Dudley have failed to win even in 2010, so I don’t really see him winning in this environment.

Pretty much this....

Trump basically maxed out the small town and rural Oregon vote in '16, and the only way a Pub would make it close to a Statewide race would be make the PDX burbs somewhat competitive...

Not really seeing that happen with Trump waving the banner of the Modern National Republican Party....

Charlie Baker and Larry Hogan are winning in states far more Democratic.


I mean Buehler could do the same thing and  do very well in Washington County , Clackamas County and pull of a narrow win.

Maybe 48%(GOP) - 47%(Dem) - 4%(Green)

[henster]

Oregon’s inelastic. Brown will win by about 5 points. Although I like Buehler and he’s just about as left-wing as you can get for a Republican these days, similarly moderate Republicans like Dudley have failed to win even in 2010, so I don’t really see him winning in this environment.

Pretty much this....

Trump basically maxed out the small town and rural Oregon vote in '16, and the only way a Pub would make it close to a Statewide race would be make the PDX burbs somewhat competitive...

Not really seeing that happen with Trump waving the banner of the Modern National Republican Party....

Charlie Baker and Larry Hogan are winning in states far more Democratic.


I mean Buehler could do the same thing and  do very well in Washington County , Clackamas County and pull of a narrow win.

Maybe 48%(GOP) - 47%(Dem) - 4%(Green)

Neither were running against incumbents, if this were an open race under a Dem president then maybe.

[Xing]

Trump at 43% approval? A Clinton +6 sample? Yeah... forgive me if I´m not buying this. Much as many Atlas posters get hard at like the idea of Oregon voting Republican for some reason, it´s not happening, much less in a year like this. Brown will be fine, and will win be at least mid-single digits.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump at 43% approval? A Clinton +6 sample? Yeah... forgive me if I´m not buying this. Much as many Atlas posters get hard at like the idea of Oregon voting Republican for some reason, it´s not happening, much less in a year like this. Brown will be fine, and will win be at least mid-single digits.

Mills, K Brown are vulnerable. Dems are winning and Red states like TN and GOPers are winning in blue states; however OR and ME arent MN and NM and IL solid Dems states. Left wing GOPers can win.

[Skye]

Trump at 43% approval? A Clinton +6 sample? Yeah... forgive me if I´m not buying this. Much as many Atlas posters get hard at like the idea of Oregon voting Republican for some reason, it´s not happening, much less in a year like this. Brown will be fine, and will win be at least mid-single digits.

Yeah, hard to believe everyone gets crazy because of a Gravis poll. Wait for a quality poll.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kate Brown can be upset here.

[cvparty]

democrats in DISARRAY over gravis poll! Red Wave Imminent?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems are doing fine in FL, MN, TN. This year GOP can take some blue states and Dems can take some red states, its an anti-incumbent mood😁

[South Dakota Democrat]

Dems are doing fine in FL, MN, TN. This year GOP can take some blue states and Dems can take some red states, its an anti-incumbent mood😁

I think in general the wave equalizes the party gains/losses.  2014 was supposed to be just a generally anti incumbent mood in governors races, with Dems picking up some governors seats (such as KS).  Didn't happen, the GOP wave washed over that idea.

[NOVA Green]

Oregon is definitely not tied with likely voters in the 2018 OR-GOV election....

Sure Gravis is actually hitting many of the right numbers from a polling methodology in terms of age groups, voting history in the 2016 Presidential Election, still their overall Trump Approval/Disapproval numbers look a bit suspect...

It is absolutely true that Kate Brown will perform much more poorly than a Democratic Candidate for US-PRES or OR-SEN (Upstate-Downstate Oregon political dynamics that I have mentioned frequently on other posts).

There are many voters in Downstate Oregon not enamored of her support for Gun Control Legislation that she signed into law, as well as your usual fringe Oregonian Christian Coalition types pissed about support for Female Reproductive Choice that she signed into law, expansion of protection for LGBTQ Oregonians, etc...

We also have the old canard of the "jobs vs environment" bag, etc....

Still, even this Gravis poll shows that the vast majority of "undecided voters" are 18-49 which is a demographic that will be most supportive of her candidacy in a 100% Vote-by-Mail (VbM) and AVR state with extremely high turnout even in Mid-Term elections.

That old Gravis dawg don't hunt and once again is up to some funky business with the numbers and none of them have ever likely set foot in Oregon in their lives....

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Oregon is definitely not tied with likely voters in the 2018 OR-GOV election....

Sure Gravis is actually hitting many of the right numbers from a polling methodology in terms of age groups, voting history in the 2016 Presidential Election, still their overall Trump Approval/Disapproval numbers look a bit suspect...

It is absolutely true that Kate Brown will perform much more poorly than a Democratic Candidate for US-PRES or OR-SEN (Upstate-Downstate Oregon political dynamics that I have mentioned frequently on other posts).

There are many voters in Downstate Oregon not enamored of her support for Gun Control Legislation that she signed into law, as well as your usual fringe Oregonian Christian Coalition types pissed about support for Female Reproductive Choice that she signed into law, expansion of protection for LGBTQ Oregonians, etc...

We also have the old canard of the "jobs vs environment" bag, etc....

Still, even this Gravis poll shows that the vast majority of "undecided voters" are 18-49 which is a demographic that will be most supportive of her candidacy in a 100% Vote-by-Mail (VbM) and AVR state with extremely high turnout even in Mid-Term elections.

That old Gravis dawg don't hunt and once again is up to some funky business with the numbers and none of them have ever likely set foot in Oregon in their lives....

Still, both sides have been nuking the airwaves so things could get interesting down the line

[NOVA Green]

Oregon is definitely not tied with likely voters in the 2018 OR-GOV election....

Sure Gravis is actually hitting many of the right numbers from a polling methodology in terms of age groups, voting history in the 2016 Presidential Election, still their overall Trump Approval/Disapproval numbers look a bit suspect...

It is absolutely true that Kate Brown will perform much more poorly than a Democratic Candidate for US-PRES or OR-SEN (Upstate-Downstate Oregon political dynamics that I have mentioned frequently on other posts).

There are many voters in Downstate Oregon not enamored of her support for Gun Control Legislation that she signed into law, as well as your usual fringe Oregonian Christian Coalition types pissed about support for Female Reproductive Choice that she signed into law, expansion of protection for LGBTQ Oregonians, etc...

We also have the old canard of the "jobs vs environment" bag, etc....

Still, even this Gravis poll shows that the vast majority of "undecided voters" are 18-49 which is a demographic that will be most supportive of her candidacy in a 100% Vote-by-Mail (VbM) and AVR state with extremely high turnout even in Mid-Term elections.

That old Gravis dawg don't hunt and once again is up to some funky business with the numbers and none of them have ever likely set foot in Oregon in their lives....

Still, both sides have been nuking the airwaves so things could get interesting down the line

Sure, especially if we start to see significant 'Pub gains in Washington and Clackamas Counties, not to mention some of the more affluent precincts within Portland, where Republican historically in relatively recent years have been known to do quite well in various Statewide non-Federal elections....

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

On GE night 2018, I bet Buehler's supporters won't be saying break a leg when they can instead say bust a knute.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Oregon is definitely not tied with likely voters in the 2018 OR-GOV election....

Sure Gravis is actually hitting many of the right numbers from a polling methodology in terms of age groups, voting history in the 2016 Presidential Election, still their overall Trump Approval/Disapproval numbers look a bit suspect...

It is absolutely true that Kate Brown will perform much more poorly than a Democratic Candidate for US-PRES or OR-SEN (Upstate-Downstate Oregon political dynamics that I have mentioned frequently on other posts).

There are many voters in Downstate Oregon not enamored of her support for Gun Control Legislation that she signed into law, as well as your usual fringe Oregonian Christian Coalition types pissed about support for Female Reproductive Choice that she signed into law, expansion of protection for LGBTQ Oregonians, etc...

We also have the old canard of the "jobs vs environment" bag, etc....

Still, even this Gravis poll shows that the vast majority of "undecided voters" are 18-49 which is a demographic that will be most supportive of her candidacy in a 100% Vote-by-Mail (VbM) and AVR state with extremely high turnout even in Mid-Term elections.

That old Gravis dawg don't hunt and once again is up to some funky business with the numbers and none of them have ever likely set foot in Oregon in their lives....

Still, both sides have been nuking the airwaves so things could get interesting down the line

Sure, especially if we start to see significant 'Pub gains in Washington and Clackamas Counties, not to mention some of the more affluent precincts within Portland, where Republican historically in relatively recent years have been known to do quite well in various Statewide non-Federal elections....

But really though, I am visiting my Dad in Oregon right now and he likes to watch KATU News, I have seen so many political ads from both sides (anti-Buehler, Pro-Buehler and anti-Brown, no pro Brown ones though, yet)

[Politician]

Likely D, Brown wins by 5-10.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Likely D, Brown wins by 5-10.

You can have upsets happenimg GOP winning in NV and OR and Dems winning in SD and FL. This is that type of year