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  Delaware- Gravis Marketing: Carper Has Huge Primary Lead, Single Digit General
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Author Topic: Delaware- Gravis Marketing: Carper Has Huge Primary Lead, Single Digit General  (Read 1252 times)
mds32
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« on: July 31, 2018, 06:59:44 pm »

Senate
Primary
Carper 51%
Harris 19%

General
Carper (D) 47%
Arlett (R) 39%

Carper (D) 47%
Truono (R) 38%

Carper approval 43%-41%

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Delaware_July_29_2018_v2.pdf
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Skunk
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« Reply #1 on: July 31, 2018, 07:01:41 pm »

Img
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Maxwell
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« Reply #2 on: July 31, 2018, 07:04:23 pm »

trashvis
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Free Bird
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« Reply #3 on: July 31, 2018, 07:04:31 pm »

wtf gravis. Not even lolgravis, wtf gravis.
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mds32
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« Reply #4 on: July 31, 2018, 07:04:34 pm »

This is likely where the Democratic primary is right now.

They polled the presidential primary as well. Trump would smoke Kasich 67% - 9% in the Republican primary
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Bagel23
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« Reply #5 on: July 31, 2018, 07:06:29 pm »

Make it stop please, this is getting ridiculous.
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Jeppe
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« Reply #6 on: July 31, 2018, 07:07:03 pm »

Better numbers than I expected for Harris. Not great numbers for Carper in the primary or the general. AOC was facing very similar numbers in NY-14, until the undecideds broke decisively for her. Incumbents struggling to secure a strong majority in their primary polling generally have a tough time when it's actually time for the primary.
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Bagel23
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« Reply #7 on: July 31, 2018, 07:08:28 pm »

Better numbers than I expected for Harris. Not great numbers for Carper in the primary or the general. AOC was facing very similar numbers in NY-14, until the undecideds broke decisively for her. Incumbents struggling to secure a strong majority in their primary polling generally have a tough time when it's actually time for the primary.

Please don't take this poll seriously people.
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mds32
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« Reply #8 on: July 31, 2018, 07:11:49 pm »

Better numbers than I expected for Harris. Not great numbers for Carper in the primary or the general. AOC was facing very similar numbers in NY-14, until the undecideds broke decisively for her. Incumbents struggling to secure a strong majority in their primary polling generally have a tough time when it's actually time for the primary.

Please don't take this poll seriously people.

The presidential primary is actually interesting and likely accurate. Who's to say the Democratic Primary poll isn't.
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Councilor Zaybay
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« Reply #9 on: July 31, 2018, 07:23:13 pm »
« Edited: July 31, 2018, 07:33:09 pm by Zaybay »

Im surprised no one has asked why Gravis did a poll of DE. This is not a state on anyone's radar, and Gravis polls usually go for the highest bidder, which is why they tend to have some of the worst results.

I pose to Atlas, who sponsored this poll? Because if its who I think it is, then this poll may say more than we think.

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Senator ON Progressive
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« Reply #10 on: July 31, 2018, 07:27:47 pm »

wtf gravis. Not even lolgravis, wtf gravis.
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Lou Barletta's Teeth
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« Reply #11 on: July 31, 2018, 07:41:15 pm »

Annnnnd the poll is already put in. Reminder: We still have the Marist and Emerson polls to put in.
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mds32
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« Reply #12 on: July 31, 2018, 07:43:28 pm »

Annnnnd the poll is already put in. Reminder: We still have the Marist and Emerson polls to put in.

I have put in about 4 polls today. Why can't other people pick up?!
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Not_A_Man
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« Reply #13 on: July 31, 2018, 08:33:31 pm »

>GRAVIS

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Gass3268
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« Reply #14 on: July 31, 2018, 08:47:09 pm »

Im surprised no one has asked why Gravis did a poll of DE. This is not a state on anyone's radar, and Gravis polls usually go for the highest bidder, which is why they tend to have some of the worst results.

I pose to Atlas, who sponsored this poll? Because if its who I think it is, then this poll may say more than we think.

Some folks on the #roseleft think this is place where they could knock off Carper.
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darthpi
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« Reply #15 on: July 31, 2018, 08:49:34 pm »

Dubious
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Ebsy
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« Reply #16 on: July 31, 2018, 09:01:24 pm »

I'm still not certain we've ever obtained sufficient evidence that Gravis actually conducts their polls.
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mds32
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« Reply #17 on: July 31, 2018, 09:45:56 pm »

I'm still not certain we've ever obtained sufficient evidence that Gravis actually conducts their polls.

You really need to get over it. RCP and 538 consider them to be real. That's real enough for me. You can go live in fantasy land.
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Bagel23
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« Reply #18 on: July 31, 2018, 10:29:49 pm »

I'm still not certain we've ever obtained sufficient evidence that Gravis actually conducts their polls.

You really need to get over it. RCP and 538 consider them to be real. That's real enough for me. You can go live in fantasy land.

If you think that Carper is only winning by single digits in the GE you are in fantasy land.
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Beet
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« Reply #19 on: July 31, 2018, 10:31:40 pm »

Carper is the kind of Dem that the liberals can knock off pretty easily; they won't lose the Delaware seat, and they can put in someone significantly more liberal than him. But for some reason this race has been getting less attention than the one against Capuano, who is one of the most liberal members of the House.
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Bagel23
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« Reply #20 on: July 31, 2018, 10:38:36 pm »

As for the primary, not concerned. Cenk's stupid primary poll in WV was 46-8 for Manchin and he tried to spin it for Paul Jean, leads this large are nearly insurmountable. 51-19 may not be Tester safe, but it is plenty healthy enough to not be concerned at all.
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Polarized MT Treasurer
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« Reply #21 on: July 31, 2018, 10:39:31 pm »

As for the primary, not concerned. Cenk's stupid primary poll in WV was 46-8 for Manchin and he tried to spin it for Paul Jean, leads this large are nearly insurmountable. 51-19 may not be Tester safe, but it is plenty healthy enough to not be concerned at all.

looooool
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Councilor Zaybay
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« Reply #22 on: July 31, 2018, 10:40:47 pm »

As for the primary, not concerned. Cenk's stupid primary poll in WV was 46-8 for Manchin and he tried to spin it for Paul Jean, leads this large are nearly insurmountable. 51-19 may not be Tester safe, but it is plenty healthy enough to not be concerned at all.
Didnt Paul Jean over preform and get more than 30%, in WV? By that logic, this primary will be a tossup.
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Bagel23
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« Reply #23 on: July 31, 2018, 10:43:46 pm »

As for the primary, not concerned. Cenk's stupid primary poll in WV was 46-8 for Manchin and he tried to spin it for Paul Jean, leads this large are nearly insurmountable. 51-19 may not be Tester safe, but it is plenty healthy enough to not be concerned at all.
Didnt Paul Jean over preform and get more than 30%, in WV? By that logic, this primary will be a tossup.

Or 46-8 for Manchin is a 38 point lead for Manchin, with the final result being 69.79-30.21 for Manchin, a 39.58 point lead for Manchin. By this logic, it most certainly would not be a tossup.
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Bagel23
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« Reply #24 on: July 31, 2018, 10:44:52 pm »

As for the primary, not concerned. Cenk's stupid primary poll in WV was 46-8 for Manchin and he tried to spin it for Paul Jean, leads this large are nearly insurmountable. 51-19 may not be Tester safe, but it is plenty healthy enough to not be concerned at all.

looooool

I'm doing my d@mn best to help make it an Atlasian meme.
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