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  TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +6
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Author Topic: TX-Quinnipiac: Cruz +6  (Read 1148 times)
TheRocketRaccoon
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« on: August 01, 2018, 11:38:30 am »

https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=2559

Cruz 49
O'Rourke 43
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KingSweden
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« Reply #1 on: August 01, 2018, 11:44:19 am »

Looks about right.
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Dom. Pol. Councilor Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #2 on: August 01, 2018, 11:45:32 am »

Yeah, this is where the race is.
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Bagel23
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« Reply #3 on: August 01, 2018, 11:47:13 am »

Sounds right
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Gass3268
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« Reply #4 on: August 01, 2018, 11:50:39 am »

Amazing that Trump is still underwater in Texas.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5 on: August 01, 2018, 11:52:41 am »

O'Rourke needs to badly increase his name recognition ...

According to the poll, about half of all voters have no opinion of him a few months before the election. But of those who do, he's viewed quite favourably (especially among Independents).
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #6 on: August 01, 2018, 11:53:11 am »

https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=2559

Cruz 49
O'Rourke 43

Change of -1 for Cruz and +4 for O'Rourke since their May poll. Survey also finds 43% of voters don't know enough about O'Rourke still to form a opinion about him.
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Lou Barletta's Teeth
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« Reply #7 on: August 01, 2018, 11:57:24 am »

Looks about right.

Cruz is going to win, but it's nice to see O'Rourke chomp at his heels.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #8 on: August 01, 2018, 12:14:45 pm »

If Cruz wins by only mid-single digits, Hurd is toast.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #9 on: August 01, 2018, 12:22:58 pm »

If Cruz wins by only mid-single digits, Hurd is toast.

If Curz wins by only mid-single digits, TX-07, TX-23 and TX-32 all flip and others start getting close.
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Goldmember
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« Reply #10 on: August 01, 2018, 12:30:15 pm »

If Cruz wins by only mid-single digits, Hurd is toast.

I wouldn’t say so. Cruz is just naturally unlikeable. Hurd is likeabke. And his district is notoriously low tirnout
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Councilor Zaybay
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« Reply #11 on: August 01, 2018, 12:31:05 pm »

Beto has a chance with these numbers, but it is slim, around 25%.
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yeah_93
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« Reply #12 on: August 01, 2018, 12:31:55 pm »

As expected.
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Bagel23
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« Reply #13 on: August 01, 2018, 12:32:45 pm »

If Cruz wins by only mid-single digits, Hurd is toast.

I wouldn’t say so. Cruz is just naturally unlikeable. Hurd is likeabke. And his district is notoriously low tirnout

Welcome back lol.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #14 on: August 01, 2018, 12:32:55 pm »

If Cruz wins by only mid-single digits, Hurd is toast.

I wouldn’t say so. Cruz is just naturally unlikeable. Hurd is likeabke. And his district is notoriously low tirnout

Democrats just had a 8 point over performance via 2016 in a Senate district have essentially overlaps TX-23.
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Councilor Zaybay
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« Reply #15 on: August 01, 2018, 12:40:23 pm »

It seems to me that the main problem Beto is facing is (still) name recognition. With him finally putting ads on the TV, I wonder if the margins will start to shrink.
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yeah_93
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« Reply #16 on: August 01, 2018, 12:42:47 pm »

It seems to me that the main problem Beto is facing is (still) name recognition. With him finally putting ads on the TV, I wonder if the margins will start to shrink.

No, the main problem he is facing is that he's running in Texas. It will take a whole lot other than simply raising his name recognition % to win there.
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Councilor Zaybay
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« Reply #17 on: August 01, 2018, 12:45:32 pm »
« Edited: August 01, 2018, 12:49:04 pm by Zaybay »

It seems to me that the main problem Beto is facing is (still) name recognition. With him finally putting ads on the TV, I wonder if the margins will start to shrink.

No, the main problem he is facing is that he's running in Texas. It will take a whole lot other than simply raising his name recognition % to win there.
Hes already within 6 points. And its only the first day of August. And the people he doesnt have name rec with appear to be both rural Rs, who he cant win, and Hispanics, which he should be targeting. And he has just released his first ad a couple days ago.

Winning as a Democrat in TX is possible, it just takes some effort and luck. I will remind you that we have a D senator in AL, R governors in most of New England, a D governor of LA, and an Indie governor of AK, not everything is set in stone.

Can Beto win? Yes. Is it likely at this moment? No. Can it become more likely as Beto starts to use his funds, have debates with Cruz, and appeal to Hispanics? Yes.

And will there be factors out of both candidates control that can influence the race for either candidate, such as rising healthcare costs, federal detainment centers for immigrants, economic growth, Trump rallies, etc.? Totally.
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#gravelgang #lessiglad
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« Reply #18 on: August 01, 2018, 12:57:36 pm »

Cruz is still the favorite, but O'Rourke has about a one in six chance of winning this. O'Rourke's path absolutely has to be increasing his name recognition, using that colossal war chest of his. Ultimately, I don't think he gets it done, but I wouldn't be surprised if he does.
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yeah_93
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« Reply #19 on: August 01, 2018, 01:08:25 pm »

It seems to me that the main problem Beto is facing is (still) name recognition. With him finally putting ads on the TV, I wonder if the margins will start to shrink.

No, the main problem he is facing is that he's running in Texas. It will take a whole lot other than simply raising his name recognition % to win there.
Hes already within 6 points. And its only the first day of August. And the people he doesnt have name rec with appear to be both rural Rs, who he cant win, and Hispanics, which he should be targeting. And he has just released his first ad a couple days ago.

Winning as a Democrat in TX is possible, it just takes some effort and luck. I will remind you that we have a D senator in AL, R governors in most of New England, a D governor of LA, and an Indie governor of AK, not everything is set in stone.

Can Beto win? Yes. Is it likely at this moment? No. Can it become more likely as Beto starts to use his funds, have debates with Cruz, and appeal to Hispanics? Yes.

And will there be factors out of both candidates control that can influence the race for either candidate, such as rising healthcare costs, federal detainment centers for immigrants, economic growth, Trump rallies, etc.? Totally.

Let me remind you that the first poll Quinnipiac conducted for this race had O'Rourke at 44% back in April. He fell to 39 for their second poll, then rose back to 43 for this poll. It's not like his numbers have been steadily rising. I do agree with the fact that the real campaign is about to begin, so there's room for him to improve (which is also true for Cruz, even more so than for O'Rourke).
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #20 on: August 01, 2018, 01:29:45 pm »

Seems about right, Lean/Likely R.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #21 on: August 01, 2018, 01:33:09 pm »

Yeah, that's what I expect the margin to be in the end. Five to eight points in Cruz' favor. Maybe 52-46% or so.
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Councilor Zaybay
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« Reply #22 on: August 01, 2018, 01:37:40 pm »

It seems to me that the main problem Beto is facing is (still) name recognition. With him finally putting ads on the TV, I wonder if the margins will start to shrink.

No, the main problem he is facing is that he's running in Texas. It will take a whole lot other than simply raising his name recognition % to win there.
Hes already within 6 points. And its only the first day of August. And the people he doesnt have name rec with appear to be both rural Rs, who he cant win, and Hispanics, which he should be targeting. And he has just released his first ad a couple days ago.

Winning as a Democrat in TX is possible, it just takes some effort and luck. I will remind you that we have a D senator in AL, R governors in most of New England, a D governor of LA, and an Indie governor of AK, not everything is set in stone.

Can Beto win? Yes. Is it likely at this moment? No. Can it become more likely as Beto starts to use his funds, have debates with Cruz, and appeal to Hispanics? Yes.

And will there be factors out of both candidates control that can influence the race for either candidate, such as rising healthcare costs, federal detainment centers for immigrants, economic growth, Trump rallies, etc.? Totally.

Let me remind you that the first poll Quinnipiac conducted for this race had O'Rourke at 44% back in April. He fell to 39 for their second poll, then rose back to 43 for this poll. It's not like his numbers have been steadily rising. I do agree with the fact that the real campaign is about to begin, so there's room for him to improve (which is also true for Cruz, even more so than for O'Rourke).
True, but I dont see how Cruz can improve. There is nothing for him to improve on, he is known all across the state, has been on the airwaves, and has a large advantage. Beto is only known to 1/2 the state, has only released his first ad, and is at a large structural advantage. If anyone is improving, its going to be, like for most races during this midterm, the Democrat.

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Anthony Davis is Awesome
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« Reply #23 on: August 01, 2018, 02:28:06 pm »

Nominating Valdez instead of Andrew White obviously is hurting Beto, everytime he comes close, there's a poll out showing Valdez well behind.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #24 on: August 01, 2018, 02:39:09 pm »

VA-2006 redux!
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