Will the Iranian regime fall?

[Beet]

It looks like it. There have been false moves before (like 2003, or 2009) but this time it looks like the real deal. The Iranian regime looks like it will fall because it has lost the spine of support it had during previous uprisings, the urban working class. And the credit for this goes to Trump. By pulling out of the Iran deal, Trump has put the squeeze on the rial. It's becoming more and more clear that pulling out of this deal was a genius move. When Obama was in, he let Iran run wild and become a regional superpower.

[Hnv1]

No. Unlike the Shah who gave way to the revolution and restrained the SAVAK, the IRGC will crack down on protests when they cross the line

[dead0man]

all regimes fall, so yes.

edit-will it soon?  We can hope.

[Beet]

No. Unlike the Shah who gave way to the revolution and restrained the SAVAK, the IRGC will crack down on protests when they cross the line

The Shah didn't really give way voluntarily. The entire society except the army basically went on strike, and while you can suppress protests with the army, you can't run a country with it. If the government loses the support of enough classes it's finished.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

No chances on that.

[Hnv1]

No. Unlike the Shah who gave way to the revolution and restrained the SAVAK, the IRGC will crack down on protests when they cross the line

The Shah didn't really give way voluntarily. The entire society except the army basically went on strike, and while you can suppress protests with the army, you can't run a country with it. If the government loses the support of enough classes it's finished.

If he had quashed the small demonstrations in early 78 the snowball wouldn’t have formed (though the Shah’s regime was already ill).

[cp]

No, and the OP's analysis of Iranian politics is inaccurate. The Iranian regime is not appreciably less popular today than it was five years ago. The current Iranian administration is somewhat long in the tooth, but the level of discontent is nowhere near the levels of civil unrest that preceded the 1978-79 revolution, or the 1953 one, for that matter.

As for Trump's 'genius': if he was half as clever as he thinks he is he would have found a way to get the other signatories to the Iran deal to pull out as well. It wouldn't have caused the Iranian government to collapse, but it would have at least shown Iran that Western countries were coordinated - something that Obama did quite successfully. 

Also, the term 'regional superpower' is nonsense, but leaving that aside, Iran has always been a major player in the region. It has the highest population, the most consistent historical territory, excepting Saudi, and it's the predominant Shi'a power in the world. Obama didn't cause that and Trump hasn't done anything to change it either.

[Sir Mohamed]

Not in the near future. I just don't see this happen. I hope it does in favor of a democratic system.

[All Along The Watchtower]

On a scale of 1 to 10 this threads ranks about a -5.

[PSOL]

Only with a costly American invasion

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Not anytime soon.  There might be some reshufflling of the leadership, but the conditions aren't there for a revolution and Trump has thrown away the slender chance Iran might have an evolution.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I think if we stop threatening Iran it will be more likely that they will moderate or a new movement takes power. It's easier for the hardliners to stay in power if they're seen as protecting against American imperialism.

[dead0man]

Well they must not be hurting too bad financially, they gave almost a billion dollars last year to Hamas, the Hezzies and other terrorist organizations.

[Beet]

Well they must not be hurting too bad financially, they gave almost a billion dollars last year to Hamas, the Hezzies and other terrorist organizations.

That's why they're hurting financially. It wouldn't be the first time a country's government collapsed thanks to imperial overreach.

[Cashew]

I think if we stop threatening Iran it will be more likely that they will moderate or a new movement takes power. It's easier for the hardliners to stay in power if they're seen as protecting against American imperialism.

I used to think that way, but what exactly have the moderates managed to acomplish? Ahmadinejad was one of the conservatives and yet even he had to walk back the cosmetic reform of allowing women in stadiums. Rouhani is similarly powerless over social issues and foreign policy. Economic policy, the only thing moderates are allowed influence over is a disaster, with unpopular neoliberal policies inciting protests. Yes you heard that right, the respectable moderates are farther right economically than the hardliners, combined with the high expectations and inevitable disappointment they are actually more destabilizing to the Islamic Republic in the long run. I wish there were a way to bloodlessly transition or reform the country, but these idiots are unwilling to make even the slightest concession to their population.

[Beet]

"If the U.S. succeeds in shutting in a large portion of Iran’s oil exports, it could tip the country into a full-blown crisis. Consequences would be felt around the world. Denied access to Western finance, Iran is likely to accelerate its efforts to woo China. It’s also vowed to retaliate against any disruption to oil sales, with officials going so far as to suggest it may try to block the Strait of Hormuz—a narrow conduit for about 30 percent of the world’s seaborne-traded crude. Tensions with Persian Gulf nations already fighting proxy wars with Iran would spike.

Meanwhile, in Tehran, despair is setting in. “There’s no hope in general,” says Aliasghar Rezaei, a 58-year-old who used to run a garment factory but now works for a ride-hailing app. Steering his Iranian-made Peugeot through Tehran’s traffic, Rezaei talks about how he supported the 1979 revolution to overthrow the shah. “I fought for the revolution, and I probably still would,” he says, “but something has to change.”

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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-09/as-sanctions-hit-iran-s-on-the-verge-of-economic-breakdown

I just have a feeling this is going to explode soon. It's the same feeling I had about ebola in spring 2014, or the bad economy in late 2008.

[Annatar]

I doubt it, the Iranian government enjoys widespread legitimacy among the population and popular discontent is more or less limited to some of the richer sections of Tehran as I understand it. It shouldn't be forgotten whatever ideological disagreements one may have with the Iranian government that from 1990-2015 Iran has achieved huge improvements in living standards as measured by the UN's HDI Index and its HDI score at 0.774 is similar to Turkey's and not very far from 0.8 which is the threshold to be included in the "very high human development" list of nations.

Furthermore, regimes usually fall when they allow themselves to be lulled into a sense of weakness or become soft, Gorbachev's USSR being a classic example of this, there is no indication that the current Iranian government suffers from either of these problems.

[dead0man]

Furthermore, regimes usually fall when they allow themselves to be lulled into a sense of weakness or become soft, Gorbachev's USSR being a classic example of this, there is no indication that the current Iranian government suffers from either of these problems.

as long as they have tear gas and good little soldiers to hit kids with batons, they'll do alright

[Greatblueheron]

I think if we stop threatening Iran it will be more likely that they will moderate or a new movement takes power. It's easier for the hardliners to stay in power if they're seen as protecting against American imperialism.