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June 25, 2019, 12:36:21 am
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #200 on: June 22, 2019, 09:01:13 am »

Yesterday I watched a video regarding prorogation as a way to get no deal passed.

However, there is a much simpler way to get no deal if a PM wanted. Why not just run out the clock?

Tell the EU to not give any extensions and just run out the clock. Put maybe a final "meaningful vote" on May's deal at 23:59 in the last day of before no deal. If it does not pass, it's no deal as the time has run out.

If May of all people got what, 2 days close to the deadline? Boris can easily just run out the clock on purpose.

Yes, but he doesn't get to do this in a vacuum - opponents of no deal (not least in his own party) will be trying everything possible to stop it happening.
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Epaminondas
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« Reply #201 on: June 22, 2019, 11:35:26 am »
« Edited: June 22, 2019, 11:42:58 am by Epaminondas »

However, there is a much simpler way to get no deal if a PM wanted. Why not just run out the clock?
The reason the "no deal" plan has stalled is not because the law can't be passed. It's because it's currently undesirable at some many levels of UK society. The remainer MPs know that and don't want to follow the path of Cameron into political oblivion.

This sort of devious machinations could push some Tory MPs into Corbyn's cold arms for a VONC.
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Statilius the Epicurean
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« Reply #202 on: June 22, 2019, 12:27:13 pm »
« Edited: June 22, 2019, 12:31:44 pm by Statilius the Epicurean »

Yesterday I watched a video regarding prorogation as a way to get no deal passed.

However, there is a much simpler way to get no deal if a PM wanted. Why not just run out the clock?

Tell the EU to not give any extensions and just run out the clock. Put maybe a final "meaningful vote" on May's deal at 23:59 in the last day of before no deal. If it does not pass, it's no deal as the time has run out.

If May of all people got what, 2 days close to the deadline? Boris can easily just run out the clock on purpose.

Yes, but he doesn't get to do this in a vacuum - opponents of no deal (not least in his own party) will be trying everything possible to stop it happening.

Yeah, the point of prorogation is to prevent parliament from bringing down a government intent on running out the clock.

If Boris has a plan, I suspect it's something like:
try to renegotiate the WA -> refuse to extend -> bait parliament into blocking or revoking -> snap election -> unite leavers on a no deal platform -> win big majority -> use it to pass the WA
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #203 on: June 23, 2019, 05:09:50 pm »

Yesterday I watched a video regarding prorogation as a way to get no deal passed.

However, there is a much simpler way to get no deal if a PM wanted. Why not just run out the clock?

Tell the EU to not give any extensions and just run out the clock. Put maybe a final "meaningful vote" on May's deal at 23:59 in the last day of before no deal. If it does not pass, it's no deal as the time has run out.

If May of all people got what, 2 days close to the deadline? Boris can easily just run out the clock on purpose.

Yes, but he doesn't get to do this in a vacuum - opponents of no deal (not least in his own party) will be trying everything possible to stop it happening.

Yeah, the point of prorogation is to prevent parliament from bringing down a government intent on running out the clock.

If Boris has a plan, I suspect it's something like:
try to renegotiate the WA -> refuse to extend -> bait parliament into blocking or revoking -> snap election -> unite leavers on a no deal platform -> win big majority -> use it to pass the WA

That seems like a really risky plan. Though I guess Boris doesn't care
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #204 on: June 23, 2019, 05:34:02 pm »

Well he has been winging it most of his adult life, mostly with success thus far.
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cp
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« Reply #205 on: June 24, 2019, 01:11:36 am »

Yesterday I watched a video regarding prorogation as a way to get no deal passed.

However, there is a much simpler way to get no deal if a PM wanted. Why not just run out the clock?

Tell the EU to not give any extensions and just run out the clock. Put maybe a final "meaningful vote" on May's deal at 23:59 in the last day of before no deal. If it does not pass, it's no deal as the time has run out.

If May of all people got what, 2 days close to the deadline? Boris can easily just run out the clock on purpose.

Yes, but he doesn't get to do this in a vacuum - opponents of no deal (not least in his own party) will be trying everything possible to stop it happening.

Yeah, the point of prorogation is to prevent parliament from bringing down a government intent on running out the clock.

If Boris has a plan, I suspect it's something like:
try to renegotiate the WA -> refuse to extend -> bait parliament into blocking or revoking -> snap election -> unite leavers on a no deal platform -> win big majority -> use it to pass the WA

That seems like a really risky plan. Though I guess Boris doesn't care

That part is the crux and probably the most likely reason such a gambit would fail. For all their bluster, the Tories' support for no deal when they've had to record a vote on it is ambivalent at best. They split almost in half on the no-deal indicative vote back in March and only 34 or so voted against May's deal the third time around, which ostensibly would have resulted in a no-deal if May hadn't asked for an extension (I know it's not that straightforward, but still).

A Tory Party pursuing no deal would likely see a few dozen MPs refuse to stand or pledge to oppose the manifesto, possibly leading to their deselection. Unless they made some arrangement with the Brexit Party (I think this is highly unlikely), it could produce a 'Canadian PCs in 1993' kind of meltdown.
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beesley.CA.UK
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« Reply #206 on: June 24, 2019, 02:51:23 pm »

As a Conservative supporter (not a member), I really hope Jeremy Hunt wins the election. Not because I'm one of the remainer Conservatives, but because I think he'd be a far better PM. He'd be more likely to get an improved Brexit deal, plus he'd lead the Conservatives so we get some reasonably effective governance for longer, rather than the next chapter of the Boris Johnson story. He might fail to unite them, but there are still a lot of Conservative MPs opposed to Boris too. You might disagree to the extent of Jeremy's achievements, but the idea that Boris has had so many great accomplishments is fantasy - he simply gets all the credit for things that happened during his term. - many good executives at TfL for example left at the end of Boris' mayoralty/at the beginning of Khan's mayoralty (partly due to dissatisfaction with the awful job Khan's doing.) His term as foreign secretary was not a great success. Hunt actually is prepared to be held to account, showing up to these debates and delivering more detailed policy ideas. He's also a family man and doesn't have all the domestic troubles - I know it's private, but it's still a quality. Unfortunately, I'm not sure Hunt can pull it off - there's a good chunk of the membership whose only idea of Brexit involves Boris Johnson, but who knows, it is British politics after all.
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urutzizu
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« Reply #207 on: June 24, 2019, 03:55:24 pm »

As a Conservative supporter (not a member), I really hope Jeremy Hunt wins the election. Not because I'm one of the remainer Conservatives, but because I think he'd be a far better PM. He'd be more likely to get an improved Brexit deal, plus he'd lead the Conservatives so we get some reasonably effective governance for longer, rather than the next chapter of the Boris Johnson story. He might fail to unite them, but there are still a lot of Conservative MPs opposed to Boris too. You might disagree to the extent of Jeremy's achievements, but the idea that Boris has had so many great accomplishments is fantasy - he simply gets all the credit for things that happened during his term. - many good executives at TfL for example left at the end of Boris' mayoralty/at the beginning of Khan's mayoralty (partly due to dissatisfaction with the awful job Khan's doing.) His term as foreign secretary was not a great success. Hunt actually is prepared to be held to account, showing up to these debates and delivering more detailed policy ideas. He's also a family man and doesn't have all the domestic troubles - I know it's private, but it's still a quality. Unfortunately, I'm not sure Hunt can pull it off - there's a good chunk of the membership whose only idea of Brexit involves Boris Johnson, but who knows, it is British politics after all.

There is going to be no better Brexit deal. It is not happening. Patience with the British has run out in europe, even in this country where our government has traditionally been very open to british demands. Our papers are full of editorials essentially calling for Britain to **** off without a deal and let us move on. Even our infuential anglophile business associations are saying the Integrity of the Single Market is far more important than any British market. Europe is not exactly happy about a no deal but it has been preparing for it for more than a year. It can take no-deal, and will call the British bluff, if necessary. Any British politician telling you they will magically force consessions from the EU is selling you a pipe dream.

Otherwise full agreement with your post.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #208 on: June 24, 2019, 04:36:33 pm »

As a Conservative supporter (not a member), I really hope Jeremy Hunt wins the election. Not because I'm one of the remainer Conservatives, but because I think he'd be a far better PM. He'd be more likely to get an improved Brexit deal, plus he'd lead the Conservatives so we get some reasonably effective governance for longer, rather than the next chapter of the Boris Johnson story. He might fail to unite them, but there are still a lot of Conservative MPs opposed to Boris too. You might disagree to the extent of Jeremy's achievements, but the idea that Boris has had so many great accomplishments is fantasy - he simply gets all the credit for things that happened during his term. - many good executives at TfL for example left at the end of Boris' mayoralty/at the beginning of Khan's mayoralty (partly due to dissatisfaction with the awful job Khan's doing.) His term as foreign secretary was not a great success. Hunt actually is prepared to be held to account, showing up to these debates and delivering more detailed policy ideas. He's also a family man and doesn't have all the domestic troubles - I know it's private, but it's still a quality. Unfortunately, I'm not sure Hunt can pull it off - there's a good chunk of the membership whose only idea of Brexit involves Boris Johnson, but who knows, it is British politics after all.

There is going to be no better Brexit deal. It is not happening. Patience with the British has run out in europe, even in this country where our government has traditionally been very open to british demands. Our papers are full of editorials essentially calling for Britain to **** off without a deal and let us move on. Even our infuential anglophile business associations are saying the Integrity of the Single Market is far more important than any British market. Europe is not exactly happy about a no deal but it has been preparing for it for more than a year. It can take no-deal, and will call the British bluff, if necessary. Any British politician telling you they will magically force consessions from the EU is selling you a pipe dream.

Otherwise full agreement with your post.

I mean, I'm as fed up with the British procrastinating as any political observer but EU diplomats have apparently been privately saying that, while the EU remains resistant to reopening the WA, they could still add to it in addition to potentially rewriting the political declaration on a future relationship & wrapping the whole thing up in a new umbrella deal, so it's hypothetically not out of the realm of possibility that we could see something that's marketed as "an improved Brexit deal" emerge out of all of this.
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #209 on: June 24, 2019, 07:53:11 pm »

Yesterday I watched a video regarding prorogation as a way to get no deal passed.

However, there is a much simpler way to get no deal if a PM wanted. Why not just run out the clock?

Tell the EU to not give any extensions and just run out the clock. Put maybe a final "meaningful vote" on May's deal at 23:59 in the last day of before no deal. If it does not pass, it's no deal as the time has run out.

If May of all people got what, 2 days close to the deadline? Boris can easily just run out the clock on purpose.

Yes, but he doesn't get to do this in a vacuum - opponents of no deal (not least in his own party) will be trying everything possible to stop it happening.

Yeah, the point of prorogation is to prevent parliament from bringing down a government intent on running out the clock.

If Boris has a plan, I suspect it's something like:
try to renegotiate the WA -> refuse to extend -> bait parliament into blocking or revoking -> snap election -> unite leavers on a no deal platform -> win big majority -> use it to pass the WA

That seems like a really risky plan. Though I guess Boris doesn't care

That part is the crux and probably the most likely reason such a gambit would fail. For all their bluster, the Tories' support for no deal when they've had to record a vote on it is ambivalent at best. They split almost in half on the no-deal indicative vote back in March and only 34 or so voted against May's deal the third time around, which ostensibly would have resulted in a no-deal if May hadn't asked for an extension (I know it's not that straightforward, but still).

A Tory Party pursuing no deal would likely see a few dozen MPs refuse to stand or pledge to oppose the manifesto, possibly leading to their deselection. Unless they made some arrangement with the Brexit Party (I think this is highly unlikely), it could produce a 'Canadian PCs in 1993' kind of meltdown.



That could probably be the most satisfying election result in a long, long time
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #210 on: June 24, 2019, 08:00:01 pm »

Yesterday I watched a video regarding prorogation as a way to get no deal passed.

However, there is a much simpler way to get no deal if a PM wanted. Why not just run out the clock?

Tell the EU to not give any extensions and just run out the clock. Put maybe a final "meaningful vote" on May's deal at 23:59 in the last day of before no deal. If it does not pass, it's no deal as the time has run out.

If May of all people got what, 2 days close to the deadline? Boris can easily just run out the clock on purpose.

Yes, but he doesn't get to do this in a vacuum - opponents of no deal (not least in his own party) will be trying everything possible to stop it happening.

Yeah, the point of prorogation is to prevent parliament from bringing down a government intent on running out the clock.

If Boris has a plan, I suspect it's something like:
try to renegotiate the WA -> refuse to extend -> bait parliament into blocking or revoking -> snap election -> unite leavers on a no deal platform -> win big majority -> use it to pass the WA

That seems like a really risky plan. Though I guess Boris doesn't care

That part is the crux and probably the most likely reason such a gambit would fail. For all their bluster, the Tories' support for no deal when they've had to record a vote on it is ambivalent at best. They split almost in half on the no-deal indicative vote back in March and only 34 or so voted against May's deal the third time around, which ostensibly would have resulted in a no-deal if May hadn't asked for an extension (I know it's not that straightforward, but still).

A Tory Party pursuing no deal would likely see a few dozen MPs refuse to stand or pledge to oppose the manifesto, possibly leading to their deselection. Unless they made some arrangement with the Brexit Party (I think this is highly unlikely), it could produce a 'Canadian PCs in 1993' kind of meltdown.



That could probably be the most satisfying election result in a long, long time

SNP as Her Majesty's Official Opposition when?
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