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  2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019
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Author Topic: 2019 India April–May LS general elections and assembly elections of 2019  (Read 24556 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #775 on: July 29, 2019, 08:41:39 pm »

BJP leader Yediyurappa wins trust vote and becomes CM again of Karnataka.  You read that right, BJP leader and 3 time CM Yeddyurappa changed is name to Yediyurappa for good luck as he becomes the CM of Karnataka  for the 4th time.  The INC speaker also resigned right after the BJP government is installed.  Before he left his role the Speaker disqualified all the INC and JD(S) rebels. 

So now there will be 17 by-elections which will determine weather the BJP government will survive.  These sets of by-elections will be a "mini-assembly" election just like in TN back in May. If INC-JD(S) wins a majority of the 17 by-elections then the BJP government will fall.  Most likely BJP with the control of the state government in a honeymoon period and a large resource gap should win a majority of these by-elections.  On the other hand the way the BJP attained power means that the next assembly elections in 2023 most likely will go against BJP but that is a long time from now.
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jaichind
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« Reply #776 on: August 04, 2019, 05:31:01 pm »

INC RS MP Sanjay Singh defects from INC to BJP now that his term in the RS is coming up.  He was an ex-MP of Amethi has a long history of party hopping and his wife who is a BJP ex-MLA will also join BJP with him.


Sanjay Singh's history is interesting.  He is from the royal house of Amethi which is a Gandhi clan pocket borough.   As such he has long connections to the Gandhi clan.  He was first elected as INC MP of Amethi in 1980.  He was married to Garima Singh.
 

He was also close the badminton champion of India Syed Modi


And his wife Ameeta Singh who herself was a top badminton player


In 1988 Syed Modi was murdered and it was suspected that Sanjay Singh who was having an affair with Ameeta Singh was behind it.   As the investigation and trial went out Sanjay Singh defected to VP Singh's JD.    Later on was acquitted of the murder of Syed Modi and right after that he divorced Garima Singh and married Ameeta Singh.   Garima Singh never accepted the divorce and claims that she is still the wife of Sanjay Singh.  Around the same time he joined BJP.  He was elected as MP of Amethi  on a BJP ticket in 1998.  He was defeated by Sonia Gandhi in 1999.   

In 2002 Ameeta Singh was elected BJP MLA of Amethi but in 2003 Sanjay Singh defected back to INC and she did so as well.  Sanjay Singh then ran for INC elsewhere in UP while  Ameeta Singh ran for INC in Amethi for UP assembly elections 2007 2012 and 2017 being defeated in all 3 elections.  In 2017 BJP actually ran Garima Singh in Amethi  in a "wife vs wife" battle which she emerged victorious.

Now Sanjay Singh and Ameeta Singh will be in the BJP along with his ex-wife  Garima Singh  who still claims she is legally married to Sanjay Singh and that his marriage to Ameeta Singh is illegal.  The UP BJP party meeting with all 3 of them will be awkward. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #777 on: August 04, 2019, 09:08:16 pm »

Looks like parts of J&K are going into a state of emergency.  JKN's Omar Abdulah and PDP's Mehbooba Mufti and JKPC's Sajad Lone have all been placed under house arrest.  All tourists have been asked to leave Kashmir while internet is being cut off.  It seems something big will take place soon.  It might be because Modi might announce that Article 370 which gives J&K special autonomy will be revoked which is a long cherished plank of BJS/BJP. 

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/jk-omar-abdulah-mehbooba-mufti-sajad-lone-placed-under-house-arrest-at-midnight/articleshow/70527884.cms
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Lok
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« Reply #778 on: August 05, 2019, 03:36:39 am »

Annnnddd that's exactly what's happening.
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jaichind
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« Reply #779 on: August 05, 2019, 05:06:12 am »

https://www.outlookindia.com/website/story/india-news-amit-shah-moves-bill-in-rajya-sabha-j-2-uts-created/335576

Article 370 which was the basis of the accession of Kashmir into India in 1947 is scrapped.  What is proposed is that J&K is splint into two Union territories: J&K which will have an elected assembly like Delhi and Ladakh which will not have an elected assembly like Chandigarh.

Overall while I think this is a key plank of BJS/BJP for decades this timing seems to imply that this is a defensive move by India.  The recent cryptic statement by Trump about mediating between India and Pakistan over Kashmir seems to imply a emerging USA-Pakistan deal.  Trump wants out of Afghanistan which eats out $45 billion a year at least.  Trump seems to want to pay Pakistan to take the Afghanistan management job over at a discount with Trump being able to claim victory and go home.  The Pakistan condition for such a deal is progress on Kashmir issue ergo Trump's cryptic statement.  This dynamic raises the specter of a USA-Pakistan-PRC bloc to hand over Afghanistan  management to Pakistan (with outside support by PRC) for a USA cash payment and putting pressure on India to come to terms with Pakistan over the Kashmir issue.  This move is a preemptive strike by India to booby trap the situation so Pakistan cannot have its way.

As for dynamics within Kashmir this could be yet another radicalization just like the flawed and perhaps rigged 1987 assembly election was and push up the level of support for the separatists as internal conflict will be quite protracted for years and perhaps decades to come.  
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jaichind
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« Reply #780 on: August 05, 2019, 05:14:41 am »

So far most BJP allies and proto-allies are for this: AIADMK, YSRCP, BJD are for this move.  BJP ally JD(U) opposes.  INC of course will oppose.  SP and BSP are for.  The dynamics are clear.  Parties that will need the Muslim vote to win are going to oppose.  YSRCP and BJD has some Muslim support in AP and Odisha respectively but both seems to have calculated that they could not oppose this and lose the Hindu vote.  JD(U) has non-sectarian appeal for Hindus in Bihar but does need the Muslim vote if it is to have some leverage with the BJP.  SP and BSP being for seems to indicate that both parties learned lessons from the 2014 2017 and 2019 debacles and will focus on the Hindu votes in the future.  INC seems still focused on regaining or not losing the Muslim votes to various regional rivals so it is coming out against.
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jaichind
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« Reply #781 on: August 05, 2019, 05:35:47 am »

INR falls around 1.3% as a result of this announcement.
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jaichind
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« Reply #782 on: August 05, 2019, 05:38:58 am »

I am not clear why BJP want to crave Ladakh out of J&K because that removes some possibility pro-BJP votes out of J&K and make a BJP victory in a future J&K even less likely.  I assume the calculation the BJP is making is that this move will de-legitimize JKN and PDP so much that the Kashmir vote will be split many ways with many separatists also in the fray with ultra-low turnout and perhaps BJP could even win a few seats in Kashmir while the BJP sweeps Jammu including the Muslim majority areas using the same dynamic.
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jaichind
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« Reply #783 on: August 05, 2019, 01:48:50 pm »

The J&K move seems like a masterstroke by Modi-Shah.  INC came out against it but there are significant forces within INC for it which splits INC down the middle.  Factions of INC that are focused on the Hindu vote are for while factions that are more dependent on Muslim votes are against.  This move will accelerate defections from INC to BJP and ensure BJP domination of the political scene for the next couple election cycles. Even AAP had to support this lest it loses its Hindu vote in Delhi.
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jaichind
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« Reply #784 on: August 09, 2019, 05:05:22 am »

With almost all the votes counted in Vellore LS election DMK marginally beats out AIADMK.  Vellore  LS election was delayed due to large amounts of cash found in warehouses controlled by the DMK.  The result is

DMK       47.33%
AIADMK  46.49%
NTK          2.62%

With this the final seat count in TN is DMK-INC-VCK-CPI-CPM-IMUL-MDMK-KMDK-IJK bloc 38 and AIADMK-BJP-PMK-DMDK-PT-TMC-PNK bloc 1.
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jaichind
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« Reply #785 on: August 09, 2019, 04:42:17 pm »

So far it is clear that the BJP is winning the Article 370 Kashmir issue.  The reason is simple, this move is having the effect of breaking INC.   During the days when INC was the dominate ruling party and had an incentive to extend the power of the center, INC also worked to chisel away the Article 370 autonomy rights for Kashmir anyway.  So INC of the 1950s to 1990s did not really believe in Article 370 for Kashmir.  Now INC is in the opposition it is trapped between its role of being the main opposition party but also the role as former dominate ruling party.  This is splitting INC down the middle  and aid in BJP just picking off more parts of INC that are looking to defect.

In Maharashtra the level of defections from INC and especially NCP to BJP has gotten so high that BJP has closed the door on defections.  So these potential defectors in INC and NCP now are going to SHS.  In the end these defections will add less to the BJP-SHS victory than one would expect but it is clear that they have the edge over the  weakened INC-NCP bloc.  The Kashmir issue has mostly ensured a victory, perhaps landslide victory, for the BJP in Haryana, Jharkhand, and Maharashtra.

The Kashmir move also solidifies the BJP projection of being the Indo-Aryan Hindu party.  While this projection leaves out Muslim areas like Kashmir and deep South Dravidian states like TN and Kerala it is enough to set up the BJP as a dominate ruling party for a few election cycles and gives it the leverage to co-op these area outside its direct control.     
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jaichind
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« Reply #786 on: August 10, 2019, 12:30:32 pm »

INC working group finally accepts Rahul Gandhi's resignation and in his place elects Sonia Gandhi as INC Prez.   Not sure if she will accept but she might have no choice unless she is ready to see INC just start falling apart.
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« Reply #787 on: August 10, 2019, 02:39:14 pm »

INC working group finally accepts Rahul Gandhi's resignation and in his place elects Sonia Gandhi as INC Prez.   Not sure if she will accept but she might have no choice unless she is ready to see INC just start falling apart.

The Gandhi family are the reason they are falling apart though
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jaichind
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« Reply #788 on: August 11, 2019, 07:59:01 am »

The crisis of INC is really that all INC state units are so faction ridden that only with someone from Gandhi clan at the helm could arbitrate between these factions.  Recently the BJP got a large chunk of INC MLAs to defect over in Goa to give BJP a majority government.  The evolution of the Goa assembly tells the story of INC factions

In 2017 assembly elections the results were

INC  17
NCP   1
GFP   3 (tactical alliance with INC)
IND   1  (INC backed)  

BJP  13
MGP  3 (BJP ally pre-2017 election that broke with BJP for the election)
IND   1 (BJP backed)

INC   1 (true independent)

INC should have been able to form the government with GFP but it was too slow to work out a deal with GFP which backed a BJP government led by Manohar Parrikar as the BJP roped in all 3 independents and MGP.  So the assembly was

Government (22)
BJP   13
MGP   3
GFP    3
IND    3

Opposition (18)
INC  17
NCP   1  

Of course this arrangement is very unstable for BJP which worked to add to its number.  Within a couple of months of forming the government the BJP got one of the INC MLAs to defect to BJP which triggered a by-election which the INC rebel MLA (himself a son of a former INC CM of Goa) won as BJP candidate.  So the assembly became

Government (23)
BJP   14
MGP   3
GFP    3
IND    3

Opposition (17)
INC  16
NCP   1  

Then the BJP got 2 more INC MLAs to defect to BJP and run in by-elections as the BJP candidate.  But both lost so the assembly composition by party did not change.

Then 2 of BJP's MLAs passed away one being BJP CM Manohar Parrikar.  This was a major crisis for BJP since Manohar Parrikar a good reason why GFP and MGP backed the BJP government was their support of Manohar Parrikar.

In March 2019 BJP's Pramod Sawant was sworn in as CM and won a very narrow vote of confidence.  And that was only done by making the leader of MGP and GFP as DCM created a fairly unstable government for BJP.

Government (21)
BJP   12
MGP   3
GFP    3
IND    3

Opposition (17)
INC  16
NCP   1  

But within a week of this government being formed BJP got 2 MGP MLAs to join BJP and dropped the remaining MGP leader and DCM from the cabinet.  As a result of the death of 2 BJP MLA and 2 MGP MLA defections which required by-elections there was 4 by-elections.  BJP won 3 of them and INC 1.  INC actually won BJP CM Manohar Parrikar's old seat.  So the Goa composition became

Government (22)
BJP   15
GFP    3
MGP   1
IND    3

Opposition (18)
INC  17
NCP   1  

Then in a coup in July 10 INC MLAs defected to BJP including 2 INC factions as well as the INC MLA that was just elected in the by-election winning BJP CM Manohar Parrikar's old seat.  The number of these INC defectors included a lot of Catholics MLAs which historically has been the most hostile to BJP.  But given the BJP government was becoming more secure they had to jump ship before other INC MLAs got there first and the BJP would be no longer interested in paying for defections.

To get to the punch line, the reason why the BJP won over INC last the last 2 years because BJP has been on the offense to win over defectors as well as using the lure of office to trade power for numbers to form a government.  The reason the INC could not act as fast as BJP is INC itself was divided into 4-5 factions where there are as many as 5 CM aspirants.  So anytime the INC high command would start to act to lure defectors and form alliances to form a government these INC factions would jump into the fray to bloc their rival INC faction leaders from getting the CM seats.  As a result a 2017 assembly result which favored the INC has turned into a majority BJP government.

So the idea behind getting the Gandhi clan to be the head of INC is that without such a setup then in every state the INC will devolve into the INC of Goa.
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jaichind
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« Reply #789 on: August 15, 2019, 12:07:40 pm »

India Today Mood of the Nation poll done BEFORE the J&K article 370 revocation

Best PM ever has Modi beating Indira Gandhi 37-14 which is a large surge for Modi.  The last peak for Modi was right after Demonetization which was a great political success even as it was a policy disaster 



Impression of economic situation continues to decline as better/worse ration declines to 49/28



INC in terminal decline? Yes 50% No 37%
Who best to lead INC:  Priyanka Gandhi 15%, Rahul Gandhi 11%, Sonia Gandhi 7%
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jaichind
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« Reply #790 on: August 15, 2019, 12:16:03 pm »

The effectiveness of Modi to keep on nationalizing politics seems to indicate that it is likely there will be  a mass extinction  event for many regional parties.  INC will survive but will only be relevant in parts of the country.  The main problem will be the various regional parties which all got hit in 2019 LS elections.  Most of these regional parties were built to counter INC(INLD, TDP, JD(S), JD(U), SP, BSP, RLD etc etc)  (AITC was built to counter Left Front.)  With INC on the decline there is nothing in regional parties DNA to be able to deal with a surging BJP.  Many of them will die out to make way for future anti-BJP regional parties built to counter BJP.  Some of these new regional parties will displace INC and some will become allies of INC to counter BJP or even both.   But during this transition the BJP will remain the one and only dominate national party.

One example is in Karnataka with by-elections coming up to determine control of the Karnataka assembly there are signs that INC is running out of money to fight these elections which BJP continues to receive massive funding.  The funding gap between BJP and INC now seems to be on the order of 10 to 1.  In Sikkim a large number of old BJP ally and former ruling party SDF MLA just defected to BJP which clears the way for BJP to grow in Sikkim just like Arunchal Pradesh a few years ago.  This is facilitated by the BJP controlled the federal subsidies for Sikkim.
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jaichind
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« Reply #791 on: August 16, 2019, 04:54:07 am »

Given escalation with Pakistan over Kashmir India defense minister Rajnath Singh says that India will reconsider the "no first use" of nuclear weapons.

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/india-no-first-use-nuclear-policy-may-change-rajnath-singh-1581403-2019-08-16
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