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  2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
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Author Topic: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)  (Read 13236 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #125 on: February 10, 2019, 04:49:46 pm »

It seems the DPP candidate for the 4- member 大阪(Osaka) Upper House district seat is にしゃんた or Jayasinghe Arachilage Thusitha Devapriya Nishantha who is an economics Professor that is from Sri Lanka and became a citizen of Japan back in 2005.  He is a long short though as DPP is not expected to win a seat here.
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On the flip side with LDP and JRP both nominating 2 candidates, 1 KP candidate, 1 CDP and 1 JCP candidate the DPP candidate could sneak through if the DPP had a unusually good turnout plus the votes are poorly distributed for both LDP and JRP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #126 on: February 17, 2019, 11:25:04 am »

Given recent talk that the LDP already nominated a second candidate in 4- seat 大阪(Osaka) and
 will work toward nominating a second candidate in the 4- seat 神奈川(Kanagawa) as well as working toward a second candidate in 2- member 広島(Hiroshima) it seems that the LDP is going all out to get a large contingent elected in the 2019 Upper House election.  Given the large size of the LDP-KP majority there seems to be no real reason to do with other than

a) LDP is planning for a world where the LDP-KP alliance might be over
OR
b) LDP is planning to push for a change in the Constitution after the July 2019 elections

a) has been talked about last year but mostly died down recently which makes b) more likely.  It seems the LDP has decided to take an approach of going for a low turnout 2019 election where there will be little if any talk of Constitutional change to avoid provoking marginal anti-LDP voters to come out.  Some polls show why this might be a wise strategy.

In swing prefecture 山梨(Yamanashi) a poll just came out on Constitutional change had support/opposition to be at 40.9/45.9.  A breakdown by age seems to show that support for Constitutional change is higher with 18/19 year olds as well as those who are in their 30s and 40s with strong opposition coming from those 50 and above.
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In some way this becomes a trap for LDP.  In a low turnout election the 50s and older turnout will be relatively higher but they oppose Constitutional change and in a high turnout election the pro-Constitutional change youth will come out but so will marginal anti-LDP voters.  It seems the LDP plan is to go for a low turnout election and not talk about Constitutional change and hope the voters 50 and older will not vote based on Constitutional change.
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jaichind
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« Reply #127 on: February 17, 2019, 11:27:32 am »

Abe cabinet approval rating continues to recover from the new immigration law earlier in the year
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While LDP support continues a steady recovery while CDP support falls
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Most recent polls I seen have CDP support falling but CDP PR vote for 2019 Upper House elections holding steady and in fact rising along with LDP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #128 on: February 17, 2019, 08:20:42 pm »

On 2/24 there will be a referendum in 沖縄(Okinawa) where the voters in the prefecture will vote in a non-binding referendum on support, oppose or no opinion on the relocation of the USA base in Futenma.

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The two polls so far has it at

            Support     Oppose    No Opinion
Kyodo    15.8           67.6          13.1
Asahi     16              59             21
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jaichind
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« Reply #129 on: February 23, 2019, 05:42:31 pm »

沖縄(Okinawa) non-binding referendum on US base relocation tomorrow.  Okinawa Times poll has it at
for the 3 possible choices

For             15.8
Against       67.6
No Opinion  13.1
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jaichind
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« Reply #130 on: February 24, 2019, 07:33:25 am »

沖縄(Okinawa) non-binding referendum on US base relocation voting done. Exit poll show massive majority for No on the order of 70%+

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jaichind
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« Reply #131 on: February 24, 2019, 08:05:21 am »

Another exit poll for 沖縄(Okinawa) non-binding referendum on US base relocation has it at

For             15.7
Against       78.4
No Opinion   5.9
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With 14% counted (mostly rural areas) the current count is

For             19.7
Against       71.7
No Opinion    8.5
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jaichind
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« Reply #132 on: February 24, 2019, 08:43:06 am »

With 84% counted (mostly rural areas) the current count for 沖縄(Okinawa) non-binding referendum on US base relocation  is

For             19.5
Against       71.6
No Opinion    8.8
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jaichind
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« Reply #133 on: February 24, 2019, 09:51:23 am »
« Edited: February 24, 2019, 10:02:21 am by jaichind »

With 98% counted (mostly rural areas) the current count for 沖縄(Okinawa) non-binding referendum on US base relocation  is

For             18.7
Against       73.2
No Opinion    8.1

Exit poll party ID are

LDP   18%
CDP    7%
KP      2%
JCP     5%
JRP     1%
SDP    6%
OSMP  2%
Ind    55%

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It seems based on this a good % of the LDP vote also voted No even after taking into account that some of the LDP party ID are really KP ID in disguise.  KP is mostly neutral on the base issue and I suspect a good part of "No Opinion".
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jaichind
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« Reply #134 on: February 24, 2019, 10:01:31 am »

All votes counted for 沖縄(Okinawa) non-binding referendum on US base relocation

For             19.1
Against       72.2
No Opinion    8.8

Anti-base 玉城デニー (Tamaki Denī) won around 397K votes which is more than any other politician in Okinawan electoral history but the Against Vote reached 434K.

Of course the Abe administration already stated ahead of time that the planned relocation of the base will continue regardless of the result of the referendum.
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jaichind
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« Reply #135 on: February 25, 2019, 08:12:42 am »

All Japan NNN poll before the referendum has support/against the  沖縄(Okinawa) base relocation at 36/47

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Which I assume opposition will rise after the landslide win for Against.

If Abe insists on going forward with the base re-location I have to assume this will hurt the LDP.  Abe has no choice though since close alliance with USA is a key plank of the LDP   I think all things equal the chances of a double election in July has gone up as that might be the only chance for LDP-KP plus JRP to keep 2/3 of the seats in both houses so there can be a push for Constitutional change after the elections. The premise there is that the opposition will not be ready and not have enough resources and candidates to fight a double election.  In such a case the Abe would be taking a big risk since turnout will be higher and marginal voters tend to vote for non-JCP opposition.
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jaichind
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« Reply #136 on: March 04, 2019, 12:40:33 pm »

One of the accomplishments  that PM Abe was hoping lock down in 2019 to help the LDP in upcoming elections is some sort of deal with Russia over the Kuril Islands (known in Japan as the Northern territories (北方領土)) north of 北海道(Hokkaido) which was taken over by USSR in 1945.  There are 4 islands in all that Russia now still controls.   Pretty much no Japanese lives there anymore but a lot of Japanese ancestral graves are on these islands.
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Abe's strategy seems to be to get Putin to give back 2 of the islands now in return for Japanese economic investments in Russia with more talks on what is the status of the other 2.  Problem is Japanese public opinion has only 22% supporting such a plan.  While 42% want 2 islands returned asap and then economic help for Russia be linked with the the return of the remaining 2 islands.
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Of course this entire thin s is a no go because Russian public opinion is opposed to anything like this where it is 77% against, only 9% for any deal where any island is given to Japan in return for economic benefits for Russia.
https://fom.ru/Mir/14152

I doubt this would go anywhere in the era of rule by the masses.  In earlier times when it was the rule of royalty some deal like this could work but not this era.
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jaichind
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« Reply #137 on: March 10, 2019, 08:56:00 am »

The April Unified Local elections will be April 7th for all the 11 governor races, all the prefecture assemblies, head of 6 specialized cities and 17 specialized city assemblies.   April 21st will be less interesting since that will be most of the village heads and village assemblies.
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jaichind
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« Reply #138 on: March 19, 2019, 02:12:36 pm »

There are talks from LDP high command that Abe might run for a 4th term when his 3rd term is up in 2021.  When Abe ran for a 3rd term in 2018 it was already breaking with LDP precedent.    What Abe seems to want to do is that he feels fairly confidant that he will win 2018 Upper House elections and now want to lead the LDP into the next general elections in 2021.

Latest Ashai poll has it at 56-27 opposed to Abe getting a 4th term as LDP Prez.  Note that when asked to name an alternative to Abe within the LDP most respondents could not.  What is key to note that LDP voters are for Abe getting a 4th term as LDP Prez in 2021.
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jaichind
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« Reply #139 on: March 21, 2019, 08:15:37 pm »

In addition to the 41 prefecture assemblies that see elections April 7 there will also be 11 prefecture governor elections.  Only 1 北海道(Hokkaido) will see a LDP vs Opposition showdown.  All of the others are either LDP-KP plus Opposition backing a joint candidate vs a JCP candidate or LDP "civil war" races where two candidates with LDP backgrounds are running and the Opposition mostly staying out the one.

One governor election that is special is 大阪(Osaka).  The term for the position is due for an election in 2020 but the JRP governor and the JRP mayor of the Osaka city both resigned to run for the other position in a swap.  This is really the continuation of JRP founder Hashimoto plan to restructure  大阪(Osaka) into a Metropolis like Tokyo to give it greater autonomy power and prestige to rival Tokyo.  This plan was defeated in a referendum in 2015 which led to Hashimoto resigning and quitting politics (for now.)   The current governor of 大阪(Osaka) 松井一郎(Matsui Ichirō) who is the also the current head of JRP make a big push for this plan again and was blocked by JRP's ally (in Osaka) KP.
 As a result he is going on a gambit to swap roles with the JRP mayor of Osaka city via a pair of by-election as a symbolic referendum on the Osaka Metropolis plan.  Both will be election but I suspect the plan will go nowhere.
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jaichind
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« Reply #140 on: March 21, 2019, 08:56:52 pm »

Map of April 7 governor elections.
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北海道(Hokkaido) - Open seat - LDP-KP vs United opposition (including JCP)
福井(Fukui) - incumbent which was backed by LDP had a falling out with some factions of the LDP which nominated a LDP-JRP candidate to challenge him.  LDP base split between the two candidates.  Opposition backing incumbent in this LDP civil war.  JCP also in the fray
神奈川(Kanagawa) LDP-Opposition joint candidate vs JCP
鳥取(Tottori) LDP-Opposition joint candidate vs JCP
島根(Shimane) LDP civil war with JCP in the mix as well, opposition staying neutral
三重(Mie) LDP-Opposition joint candidate vs JCP
奈良(Nara) LDP-Opposition joint candidate vs JCP backed independent
福岡(Fukuoka) LDP civil war with incumbent which was backed by the LDP taking on LDP candidate backed by another faction.  Opposition staying neutral.  JCP also in the fray
大阪(Osaka) Only in Osaka.  JRP vs Grand Alliance of LDP-KP-CDP-JCP.  JRP will win
大分(Ōita) LDP-Opposition joint candidate vs JCP
徳島(Tokushima) LDP backed incumbent vs LDP rebel vs JCP. Opposition mostly staying out of the way
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jaichind
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« Reply #141 on: March 24, 2019, 03:27:33 pm »

One thing that is different about the 大阪(Osaka) governor and prefecture assembly than last couple of cycles is that due to the Osaka Metropolis plan controversy the KP is now clearly pitted against JRP whereas in previously since 2008 the KP have either been allied with JRP or at least took a neutral position in the JRP battles with LDP.  So JRP, I think, still have the upper hand but I think it will do a good deal worse than the 2015-2016 election cycle here.   The recent CDP surge in 大阪(Osaka) does not help either.
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jaichind
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« Reply #142 on: March 27, 2019, 08:26:11 am »

Polling for the two higher profile and competitive governor races which are 北海道(Hokkaido) and  大阪(Osaka) has the pro-LDP candidate slightly ahead of the Grand alliance candidate (CDP-DPP-SDP-LP-JCP) and the JCP candidate (who is currently the Osaka mayor) well ahead of the anti-JRP Grand alliance candidate (LDP-KP-CDP-JCP). 

In 大阪(Osaka) itself the Metropolis plan support is higher than those that oppose 39.9 vs 31.8
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Which means if the JRP move to trigger by-elections for Osaka governor and mayor race is successful then we can look to another referendum on this topic which was defeated narrowly in 2015.
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jaichind
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« Reply #143 on: March 27, 2019, 08:51:41 am »
« Edited: March 27, 2019, 09:31:21 pm by jaichind »

With the Emperor about to step down and the 平成 (Heisei) period about to come to an end, a poll was done to ask who were the 3 most effective PMs of the 平成 (Heisei) period.  The result were

Koizumi (2001-2006)              77%
Abe (2006-2007, 2012-)         38%
Takesh**ta (1987-1989)            22%
Obuchi (1998-2000)               15%
Hashimoto (1996-1998)          13%

Given how long Abe have lasted and is the current incumbent it is surprising that only 38% had him in the top 3.  It goes to show how relatively Abe is with the general population even as he is very popular with the LDP base and LDP office holders.  

Takesh**ta  being there kinda makes sense as he was PM during the Japan economic peak.  Obuchi is most likely the JFK effect as he died in office so people got to project what he could have done as PM even though his time in office did not leave a positive record.

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jaichind
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« Reply #144 on: March 29, 2019, 07:22:11 am »

It seems in the upcoming phase I of the Unified Local elections on April 7th most the races will be boring.  The only outstanding questions are:

1) Can the joint opposition candidate win an upset victory over the pro-LDP candidate in the 北海道(Hokkaido) governor race
2) Can  LDP-KP alliance  capture a majority in the prefecture assembly in 三重(Mie) whereas in 2015 it was held below majority.
3) Can the LDP-KP alliance capture a majority in the prefecture assembly in 大阪(Osaka) over JRP?  It is clear that the JRP will win the governor and mayor races and with KP going with LDP the JRP should be in trouble in the prefecture assembly. 

Rest of the races will go to LDP or LDP rebels for governor races and the LDP-KP will win majorities in the other 39 prefecture assemblies.  The best CDP DPP can do is to make sure the CDP DPP split does not lose seats from where undivided DPJ won in 2015 with CDP perhaps eating into the JCP vote.
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jaichind
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« Reply #145 on: March 30, 2019, 06:08:26 pm »

Yomiuri poll on  大阪(Osaka) prefecture assembly elections

JRP    38%
LDP   18%
KP      7%
CDP    5%
JCP     5%

Looks like JRP is set to capture a majority or near majority even though KP will be having an alliance with LDP.

Back in 2015 it was (JRP had an alliance with KP)
           Contest  Win      Vote share
LDP       51         25         28.88%
KP         15         15        10.73%
JRP        55         43        42.34%
DPJ       15           2          5.32%
JCP       35           3         11.83%
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jaichind
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« Reply #146 on: March 31, 2019, 07:21:18 am »

In the JRP castle move in  大阪(Osaka) of swapping the governor and mayor positions, it seems the governor race is in the bag for JRP but in the mayor race the LDP is putting up the same heavyweight MLA that lost the 2015 Osaka mayor race and seems to be neck-to-neck with JRP leader and current governor 松井一郎 (Matsui Ichirō).  The LDP candidate 柳本顕(Yanagimoto Ken) actually gave up on chance to run for the LDP in the Upper House race in the summer just to run in this by-election so he must figure his chances are not bad even though he was beaten decisively in 2015.
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jaichind
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« Reply #147 on: March 31, 2019, 01:47:37 pm »

The emperor is set to stop down April 30.  That means on that date the "Period" on the Japanese calendar will change from 平成(Heisei) to a new period.  The government/Imperial family is set to come out tomorrow with the "Period" that will be used starting April 30.   

1989 when the new "Period" of  平成(Heisei) was announced
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There is fierce battles between various media outlet to get the scoop on what is the new "Period"

There are several "rules" on the name of this new "Period." 

1) Since the concept of "Period" comes from China the new name must be referenced in one of the several "canon" Classical Chinese text
2) The romanticized version of the new "Period" cannot start with M T S nor H.  These letters were the starting letter of the Romanticized versions of the last 4 "Periods" and people often use shorthand of H25 for "The 25th year of  平成(Heisei)" (which btw is 2006).  So any "Period" name that create namespace collisions would be a problem.
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jaichind
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« Reply #148 on: March 31, 2019, 09:48:27 pm »

New Era/Period for Japan will be 令和(Reiwa)
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TimTurner
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« Reply #149 on: April 01, 2019, 12:27:44 pm »

New Era/Period for Japan will be 令和(Reiwa)
do you think this is a good name?
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