2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)

[jaichind]

Map of April 7 governor elections.


北海道(Hokkaido) - Open seat - LDP-KP vs United opposition (including JCP)
福井(Fukui) - incumbent which was backed by LDP had a falling out with some factions of the LDP which nominated a LDP-JRP candidate to challenge him.  LDP base split between the two candidates.  Opposition backing incumbent in this LDP civil war.  JCP also in the fray
神奈川(Kanagawa) LDP-Opposition joint candidate vs JCP
鳥取(Tottori) LDP-Opposition joint candidate vs JCP
島根(Shimane) LDP civil war with JCP in the mix as well, opposition staying neutral
三重(Mie) LDP-Opposition joint candidate vs JCP
奈良(Nara) LDP-Opposition joint candidate vs JCP backed independent
福岡(Fukuoka) LDP civil war with incumbent which was backed by the LDP taking on LDP candidate backed by another faction.  Opposition staying neutral.  JCP also in the fray
大阪(Osaka) Only in Osaka.  JRP vs Grand Alliance of LDP-KP-CDP-JCP.  JRP will win
大分(Ōita) LDP-Opposition joint candidate vs JCP
徳島(Tokushima) LDP backed incumbent vs LDP rebel vs JCP. Opposition mostly staying out of the way

[jaichind]

One thing that is different about the 大阪(Osaka) governor and prefecture assembly than last couple of cycles is that due to the Osaka Metropolis plan controversy the KP is now clearly pitted against JRP whereas in previously since 2008 the KP have either been allied with JRP or at least took a neutral position in the JRP battles with LDP.  So JRP, I think, still have the upper hand but I think it will do a good deal worse than the 2015-2016 election cycle here.   The recent CDP surge in 大阪(Osaka) does not help either.

[jaichind]

Polling for the two higher profile and competitive governor races which are 北海道(Hokkaido) and  大阪(Osaka) has the pro-LDP candidate slightly ahead of the Grand alliance candidate (CDP-DPP-SDP-LP-JCP) and the JCP candidate (who is currently the Osaka mayor) well ahead of the anti-JRP Grand alliance candidate (LDP-KP-CDP-JCP). 

In 大阪(Osaka) itself the Metropolis plan support is higher than those that oppose 39.9 vs 31.8
 

Which means if the JRP move to trigger by-elections for Osaka governor and mayor race is successful then we can look to another referendum on this topic which was defeated narrowly in 2015.

[jaichind]

With the Emperor about to step down and the 平成 (Heisei) period about to come to an end, a poll was done to ask who were the 3 most effective PMs of the 平成 (Heisei) period.  The result were

Koizumi (2001-2006)              77%
Abe (2006-2007, 2012-)         38%
Takesh**ta (1987-1989)            22%
Obuchi (1998-2000)               15%
Hashimoto (1996-1998)          13%

Given how long Abe have lasted and is the current incumbent it is surprising that only 38% had him in the top 3.  It goes to show how relatively Abe is with the general population even as he is very popular with the LDP base and LDP office holders.  

Takesh**ta  being there kinda makes sense as he was PM during the Japan economic peak.  Obuchi is most likely the JFK effect as he died in office so people got to project what he could have done as PM even though his time in office did not leave a positive record.

[jaichind]

It seems in the upcoming phase I of the Unified Local elections on April 7th most the races will be boring.  The only outstanding questions are:

1) Can the joint opposition candidate win an upset victory over the pro-LDP candidate in the 北海道(Hokkaido) governor race
2) Can  LDP-KP alliance  capture a majority in the prefecture assembly in 三重(Mie) whereas in 2015 it was held below majority.
3) Can the LDP-KP alliance capture a majority in the prefecture assembly in 大阪(Osaka) over JRP?  It is clear that the JRP will win the governor and mayor races and with KP going with LDP the JRP should be in trouble in the prefecture assembly. 

Rest of the races will go to LDP or LDP rebels for governor races and the LDP-KP will win majorities in the other 39 prefecture assemblies.  The best CDP DPP can do is to make sure the CDP DPP split does not lose seats from where undivided DPJ won in 2015 with CDP perhaps eating into the JCP vote.

[jaichind]

Yomiuri poll on  大阪(Osaka) prefecture assembly elections

JRP    38%
LDP   18%
KP      7%
CDP    5%
JCP     5%

Looks like JRP is set to capture a majority or near majority even though KP will be having an alliance with LDP.

Back in 2015 it was (JRP had an alliance with KP)
           Contest  Win      Vote share
LDP       51         25         28.88%
KP         15         15        10.73%
JRP        55         43        42.34%
DPJ       15           2          5.32%
JCP       35           3         11.83%

[jaichind]

In the JRP castle move in  大阪(Osaka) of swapping the governor and mayor positions, it seems the governor race is in the bag for JRP but in the mayor race the LDP is putting up the same heavyweight MLA that lost the 2015 Osaka mayor race and seems to be neck-to-neck with JRP leader and current governor 松井一郎 (Matsui Ichirō).  The LDP candidate 柳本顕(Yanagimoto Ken) actually gave up on chance to run for the LDP in the Upper House race in the summer just to run in this by-election so he must figure his chances are not bad even though he was beaten decisively in 2015.

[jaichind]

The emperor is set to stop down April 30.  That means on that date the "Period" on the Japanese calendar will change from 平成(Heisei) to a new period.  The government/Imperial family is set to come out tomorrow with the "Period" that will be used starting April 30.   

1989 when the new "Period" of  平成(Heisei) was announced


There is fierce battles between various media outlet to get the scoop on what is the new "Period"

There are several "rules" on the name of this new "Period." 

1) Since the concept of "Period" comes from China the new name must be referenced in one of the several "canon" Classical Chinese text
2) The romanticized version of the new "Period" cannot start with M T S nor H.  These letters were the starting letter of the Romanticized versions of the last 4 "Periods" and people often use shorthand of H25 for "The 25th year of  平成(Heisei)" (which btw is 2006).  So any "Period" name that create namespace collisions would be a problem.

[jaichind]

New Era/Period for Japan will be 令和(Reiwa)

[jaichind]

New Era/Period for Japan will be 令和(Reiwa)

do you think this is a good name?

Hard to say as I am not Japanese and it will be hard for me to judge.  Main issue should be its serve its functional purpose.

令和(Reiwa) comes from a Japanese literary text versus a Chinese one for the first time on several centuries that a Japanese period did not come from a classical Chinese text.    It comes from "萬葉集" or Man'yōshū: 「於時初春令月、氣淑風和、梅披鏡前之粉、蘭熏珮後之香」which is the all Kanji form when it was written in the 8th century.  In modern Japanese it is "（初春の令月にして、氣淑く風和ぎ、梅は鏡前の粉を披き、蘭は珮後の香を薫す）

It is said that Abe really wanted the period to reflect Japanese traditions versus Chinese traditions and that could be true although this has been done in the past as well although it is rare.  Sorry if this is sour grapes from me but if this is true then Abe own name reflects Chinese traditions.  晉三 or Shinzo of Abe Shinzo 安倍晉三 refers to 三晉 which refers to the ancient Chinese Duchy of 晉 (Jin) being split into 3 separate duchies or  三晉 or 3 Jin of Chao(趙) Wei(魏) and Han(韓) around 403AD.  Even after the split these 3 duchies (later kingdoms) were refereed to as the 三晉 or 3 Jin.

[jaichind]

New Kyodo poll indicated that 73.7% support the selection of 令和(Reiwa) as the new imperial era name.  85% viewed positively the government's choice of a name from a Japanese classic, rather than a Chinese source.  Abe cabinet approval  surged 9.5% to 52.8% while disapproval fell  8.5% to 32.4%.  It seems Abe hit on a winner here and just in time before the unified local elections next week.   Looks like this will solidify the LDP-KP landslide.   Only elections that are still in doubt are the  大阪(Osaka) prefecture assembly elections to see which party comes out on top (LDP-KP or JRP.)

[jaichind]

Latest Abe approval curve which surged due to the positive feelings over the choice of the new imperial era name.


LDP support (pink) rising slightly)


CDP support(Blue) falling while JRP(Green) support is rising.  Most likely due to the news around LDP-JRP battle over 大阪(Osaka)


Overall the momentum is strongly in favor of Abe/LDP going into the Unified Local elections this weekend.  CDP-DPP opposition has to hope that this momentum dissipates by the July Upper House elections.

[jaichind]

塚田 一郎(Tsukada Ichirō) who is an Upper House MP from 新潟(Niigata) had to resign as land minister after he said he made a special decision to restart a road project for the constituencies of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso to please them in a speech at a campaign rally.

This comes at a bad time right before the Unified Local election this weekend.  Also 塚田 一郎(Tsukada Ichirō) himself is up for re-election in July in a swing district.  His seat was seen as a tossup JCP and DPP already withdrew their candidate to back a CDP candidate.  Now it seems likely LDP will lose this seat in July.  Getting a new LDP candidate in there could turn things around but I suspect the impact will be large enough to cost LDP this seat.

[jaichind]

There will be 2 Lower House by-elections on April 21st in 大阪(Osaka) 12th where the LDP incumbent passed away and 沖縄(Okinawa) 3rd where the LP incumbent ran and won the 沖縄(Okinawa) governor race.

In 大阪(Osaka) 12th it will be LDP vs JRP vs ex-HP independent vs JCP.  On the opposition side a ex-DPJ ex-HP MP for this district who was elected as a PR candidate in 2017 wants to run and has implicit DPP support. JCP who objects to the center-right background of this ex-DPJ ex-HP candidate ran its own candidate.  CDP seems to be neutral in all this.  The LDP is running the son of the deceased LDP MP to cash in on the sympathetic factor.  With the opposition divided the race will be a LDP vs JRP race. 

In 2014 the results were

LDP   45.0%
JRP   40.6% (backed by HP)
JCP   14.4%

PR it was

LDP   25.20%   
KP     19.21%         
HRP   0.42%   
JRP   25.34%   
HP     9.40%   
CDP  11.63%   
SDP    0.62%   
JCP    8.17%

So a good part of the JRP 2014 vote came from HP PR and even CDP PR voters.  Now with with a non-JCP Opposition candidate in the mix the LPD will have a clear edge as 2017 HP PR voters will most likely split between the JRP and ex-DPJ ex-HP candidate while 2017 CDP PR voters will split their vote between the JCP and ex-DPJ ex-HP candidate.


In 沖縄(Okinawa) 3rd it will be a straight LDP (looks like backed by JRP) vs AO (backed by all opposition parties including JCP) 

In 2014 the results were

LP       57.9%
LDP     40.3%
HRP      1.8%

PR it was

LDP    23.50%   
KP     18.90%         
HRP     1.32%   
JRP      4.43%   
HP      13.51%   
CDP    15.49%   
SDP    13.17%   
HRP    9.70%

It is clear that the LDP candidate in 2014 under performed the 2017 LDP+KP PR vote share as the 2017 JPR PR vote should have been split between LDP and LP.  This is due to the personal vote of the LP candidate (who is now governor).

The LDP candidate will be an ex-Upper House MP so the LDP if anything will have a candidate quietly advantage.  The AO (AO is an local grand alliance of anti-base parties) candidate who has a LP background.    If the LDP candidate can consolidate the 2017 LDP+KP+JRP+HRP PR vote then then she will be within striking distance of pulling off an upset and winning the seat.  Most likely she will come close but miss.

[jaichind]

This weekend governor races predictions (most which are obvious)

北海道(Hokkaido): Open seat: LDP candidate defeat common opposition candidate
神奈川(Kanagawa): Pro-LDP Incumbent backed by all non-JCP parties defeat JCP candidate
福井(Fukui): Pro-LDP candidate defeat Opposition backed and formerly LDP backed incumbent as well as JCP
三重(Mie):  Pro-LDP Incumbent backed by all non-JCP parties defeat JCP candidate
大阪(Osaka): JRP defeat LDP candidate backed by KP and CDP as well as implicitly CDP and JCP
奈良(Nara): LDP-KP-DPP backed incumbent defeat opposition candidate backed implicitly CDP and JCP
鳥取(Tottori): pro-LDP incumbent defeat JCP candidate as well as opposition candidate backed implicitly CDP
島根(Shimane): Open seat: LDP rebel defeat LDP candidate as well as another LDP rebel and JCP candidate (this one seems to be neck-to-neck between the LDP rebel and LDP candidate)
徳島(Tokushima): LDP backed incumbent defeat LDP rebel and JCP candidate
福岡(Fukuoka): Incumbent who used to be backed by LDP and now  implicitly backed by non-JCP opposition defeat LDP candidate and JCP  
大分(Ōita): LDP backed incumbent defeat JCP candidate

Its pretty sad when the only race that is exciting is 島根(Shimane) where it will be LDP vs LDP rebel where it is neck-to-neck.  All the others I think are pretty much set.

[jaichind]

Also there will be mayor races for some key cities where I will make some predictions

札幌市(Sapporo): Pro-LDP Incumbent backed by all non-JCP parties defeat pro-JCP candidate
相模原市(Sagamihara): Pro-DPP candidate defeat pro-LDP incumbent and two other LDP rebels as a LDP split will cost LDP a seat
静岡市(Shizuoka): Pro-LDP incumbent defeat ex-mayor LDP rebel and JCP
浜松市(Hamamatsu): Pro-CDP incumbent defeat LDP and JCP candidates
大阪市(Osaka): JRP defeat LDP candidate backed by KP and CDP as well as implicitly CDP and JCP
広島市(Hiroshima):  Pro-LDP incumbent backed by KP and DPP defeat LDP rebel and JCP candidate 

[jaichind]

Turnout in 大阪(Osaka) 1%-2%higher than in 2016.  I guess slightly better news for LDP than JRP but absent a turnout surge greater then that JRP should have this.

[jaichind]

NHK Exit poll has JRP winning both 大阪(Osaka) governor and mayor races.

[jaichind]

Every governor and key mayor race called except for a couple.  All of them went the way I predicted (it does not take a genius to make those calls).   Uncalled ones are

島根(Shimane) governor Open seat: where I predicted LDP rebel defeat LDP candidate as well as another LDP rebel and JCP candidate (this one seems to be neck-to-neck between the LDP rebel and LDP candidate)

静岡市(Shizuoka) mayor where I predicted Pro-LDP incumbent defeat ex-mayor LDP rebel and JCP

島根(Shimane)  I knew was going to be neck-to-neck.  I guess the LDP rebel ex-mayor is making it a neck-to-neck race against the LDP incumbent. 

[jaichind]

Looks like the JRP gamble in 大阪(Osaka) has worked.  Most likely JRP will be able to capture a majority or near majority in the 大阪(Osaka) prefecture assembly.

[jaichind]

Exit polls in 大阪(Osaka) City show that support for Osaka Metropolis plan to be 58-42.   If so look forward to JRP getting another referendum on this after it failed narrowly in 2015.

[jaichind]

島根(Shimane) governor called for the LDP rebel over the official LDP candidate just like I predicted will be the case.

[jaichind]

Asahi exit poll for  大阪(Osaka) City mayor contest.  The basic idea behind the JRP landslide is that the JRP candidate won 1/3 (33%) of the LDP supporters which is 21% of the electorate and wins pretty much all of the JRP supporters which is 44% of the electorate.

[jaichind]

静岡市(Shizuoka) mayor called for pro-LDP incumbent over ex-mayor LDP rebel and JCP.  This completes my perfect prediction record for all key races this cycle.

[jaichind]

In two prefectures the local LDP has turned on the incumbent governor that they backed 2015 by pushing their own candidate. 

In 福井(Fukui) it worked where with 58% of the vote it is LDP 55.4% Opposition backed incumbent 37.9% JCP 6.7%.   

In 福岡(Fukuoka) it failed comically with 48% of the vote it is Opposition backed incumbent 72.8% LDP 20.0% JCP 7.1%.  It seems huge part of the LDP base rejected the attempt of a part of the local LDP to impose their own candidate over a traditionally pro-LDP incumbent that also has opposition support.