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  2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
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Author Topic: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)  (Read 12729 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #150 on: April 01, 2019, 05:43:16 pm »

New Era/Period for Japan will be 令和(Reiwa)
do you think this is a good name?

Hard to say as I am not Japanese and it will be hard for me to judge.  Main issue should be its serve its functional purpose.

令和(Reiwa) comes from a Japanese literary text versus a Chinese one for the first time on several centuries that a Japanese period did not come from a classical Chinese text.    It comes from "萬葉集" or Man'yōshū: 「於時初春月、氣淑風、梅披鏡前之粉、蘭熏珮後之香」which is the all Kanji form when it was written in the 8th century.  In modern Japanese it is "(初春の令月にして、氣淑く風和ぎ、梅は鏡前の粉を披き、蘭は珮後の香を薫す)

It is said that Abe really wanted the period to reflect Japanese traditions versus Chinese traditions and that could be true although this has been done in the past as well although it is rare.  Sorry if this is sour grapes from me but if this is true then Abe own name reflects Chinese traditions.  晉三 or Shinzo of Abe Shinzo 安倍晉三 refers to 三晉 which refers to the ancient Chinese Duchy of 晉 (Jin) being split into 3 separate duchies or  三晉 or 3 Jin of Chao(趙) Wei(魏) and Han(韓) around 403AD.  Even after the split these 3 duchies (later kingdoms) were refereed to as the 三晉 or 3 Jin.
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jaichind
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« Reply #151 on: April 02, 2019, 06:35:29 am »

New Kyodo poll indicated that 73.7% support the selection of 令和(Reiwa) as the new imperial era name.  85% viewed positively the government's choice of a name from a Japanese classic, rather than a Chinese source.  Abe cabinet approval  surged 9.5% to 52.8% while disapproval fell  8.5% to 32.4%.  It seems Abe hit on a winner here and just in time before the unified local elections next week.   Looks like this will solidify the LDP-KP landslide.   Only elections that are still in doubt are the  大阪(Osaka) prefecture assembly elections to see which party comes out on top (LDP-KP or JRP.)
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jaichind
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« Reply #152 on: April 04, 2019, 08:01:29 am »

Latest Abe approval curve which surged due to the positive feelings over the choice of the new imperial era name.
Img


LDP support (pink) rising slightly)
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CDP support(Blue) falling while JRP(Green) support is rising.  Most likely due to the news around LDP-JRP battle over 大阪(Osaka)
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Overall the momentum is strongly in favor of Abe/LDP going into the Unified Local elections this weekend.  CDP-DPP opposition has to hope that this momentum dissipates by the July Upper House elections.
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jaichind
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« Reply #153 on: April 05, 2019, 11:24:22 am »

塚田 一郎(Tsukada Ichirō) who is an Upper House MP from 新潟(Niigata) had to resign as land minister after he said he made a special decision to restart a road project for the constituencies of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso to please them in a speech at a campaign rally.

This comes at a bad time right before the Unified Local election this weekend.  Also 塚田 一郎(Tsukada Ichirō) himself is up for re-election in July in a swing district.  His seat was seen as a tossup JCP and DPP already withdrew their candidate to back a CDP candidate.  Now it seems likely LDP will lose this seat in July.  Getting a new LDP candidate in there could turn things around but I suspect the impact will be large enough to cost LDP this seat.
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jaichind
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« Reply #154 on: April 05, 2019, 11:57:44 am »

There will be 2 Lower House by-elections on April 21st in 大阪(Osaka) 12th where the LDP incumbent passed away and 沖縄(Okinawa) 3rd where the LP incumbent ran and won the 沖縄(Okinawa) governor race.

In 大阪(Osaka) 12th it will be LDP vs JRP vs ex-HP independent vs JCP.  On the opposition side a ex-DPJ ex-HP MP for this district who was elected as a PR candidate in 2017 wants to run and has implicit DPP support. JCP who objects to the center-right background of this ex-DPJ ex-HP candidate ran its own candidate.  CDP seems to be neutral in all this.  The LDP is running the son of the deceased LDP MP to cash in on the sympathetic factor.  With the opposition divided the race will be a LDP vs JRP race. 

In 2014 the results were

LDP   45.0%
JRP   40.6% (backed by HP)
JCP   14.4%

PR it was

LDP   25.20%   
KP     19.21%         
HRP   0.42%   
JRP   25.34%   
HP     9.40%   
CDP  11.63%   
SDP    0.62%   
JCP    8.17%

So a good part of the JRP 2014 vote came from HP PR and even CDP PR voters.  Now with with a non-JCP Opposition candidate in the mix the LPD will have a clear edge as 2017 HP PR voters will most likely split between the JRP and ex-DPJ ex-HP candidate while 2017 CDP PR voters will split their vote between the JCP and ex-DPJ ex-HP candidate.


In 沖縄(Okinawa) 3rd it will be a straight LDP (looks like backed by JRP) vs AO (backed by all opposition parties including JCP) 

In 2014 the results were

LP       57.9%
LDP     40.3%
HRP      1.8%

PR it was

LDP    23.50%   
KP     18.90%         
HRP     1.32%   
JRP      4.43%   
HP      13.51%   
CDP    15.49%   
SDP    13.17%   
HRP    9.70%

It is clear that the LDP candidate in 2014 under performed the 2017 LDP+KP PR vote share as the 2017 JPR PR vote should have been split between LDP and LP.  This is due to the personal vote of the LP candidate (who is now governor).

The LDP candidate will be an ex-Upper House MP so the LDP if anything will have a candidate quietly advantage.  The AO (AO is an local grand alliance of anti-base parties) candidate who has a LP background.    If the LDP candidate can consolidate the 2017 LDP+KP+JRP+HRP PR vote then then she will be within striking distance of pulling off an upset and winning the seat.  Most likely she will come close but miss.
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jaichind
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« Reply #155 on: April 05, 2019, 12:18:05 pm »
« Edited: April 05, 2019, 12:44:59 pm by jaichind »

This weekend governor races predictions (most which are obvious)

北海道(Hokkaido): Open seat: LDP candidate defeat common opposition candidate
神奈川(Kanagawa): Pro-LDP Incumbent backed by all non-JCP parties defeat JCP candidate
福井(Fukui): Pro-LDP candidate defeat Opposition backed and formerly LDP backed incumbent as well as JCP
三重(Mie):  Pro-LDP Incumbent backed by all non-JCP parties defeat JCP candidate
大阪(Osaka): JRP defeat LDP candidate backed by KP and CDP as well as implicitly CDP and JCP
奈良(Nara): LDP-KP-DPP backed incumbent defeat opposition candidate backed implicitly CDP and JCP
鳥取(Tottori): pro-LDP incumbent defeat JCP candidate as well as opposition candidate backed implicitly CDP
島根(Shimane): Open seat: LDP rebel defeat LDP candidate as well as another LDP rebel and JCP candidate (this one seems to be neck-to-neck between the LDP rebel and LDP candidate)
徳島(Tokushima): LDP backed incumbent defeat LDP rebel and JCP candidate
福岡(Fukuoka): Incumbent who used to be backed by LDP and now  implicitly backed by non-JCP opposition defeat LDP candidate and JCP  
大分(Ōita): LDP backed incumbent defeat JCP candidate

Its pretty sad when the only race that is exciting is 島根(Shimane) where it will be LDP vs LDP rebel where it is neck-to-neck.  All the others I think are pretty much set.
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jaichind
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« Reply #156 on: April 05, 2019, 12:42:11 pm »

Also there will be mayor races for some key cities where I will make some predictions

札幌市(Sapporo): Pro-LDP Incumbent backed by all non-JCP parties defeat pro-JCP candidate
相模原市(Sagamihara): Pro-DPP candidate defeat pro-LDP incumbent and two other LDP rebels as a LDP split will cost LDP a seat
静岡市(Shizuoka): Pro-LDP incumbent defeat ex-mayor LDP rebel and JCP
浜松市(Hamamatsu): Pro-CDP incumbent defeat LDP and JCP candidates
大阪市(Osaka): JRP defeat LDP candidate backed by KP and CDP as well as implicitly CDP and JCP
広島市(Hiroshima):  Pro-LDP incumbent backed by KP and DPP defeat LDP rebel and JCP candidate 
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jaichind
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« Reply #157 on: April 07, 2019, 05:41:40 am »

Turnout in 大阪(Osaka) 1%-2%higher than in 2016.  I guess slightly better news for LDP than JRP but absent a turnout surge greater then that JRP should have this.
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jaichind
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« Reply #158 on: April 07, 2019, 06:01:32 am »

NHK Exit poll has JRP winning both 大阪(Osaka) governor and mayor races.
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jaichind
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« Reply #159 on: April 07, 2019, 06:08:35 am »

Every governor and key mayor race called except for a couple.  All of them went the way I predicted (it does not take a genius to make those calls).   Uncalled ones are

島根(Shimane) governor Open seat: where I predicted LDP rebel defeat LDP candidate as well as another LDP rebel and JCP candidate (this one seems to be neck-to-neck between the LDP rebel and LDP candidate)

静岡市(Shizuoka) mayor where I predicted Pro-LDP incumbent defeat ex-mayor LDP rebel and JCP

島根(Shimane)  I knew was going to be neck-to-neck.  I guess the LDP rebel ex-mayor is making it a neck-to-neck race against the LDP incumbent. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #160 on: April 07, 2019, 06:17:55 am »

Looks like the JRP gamble in 大阪(Osaka) has worked.  Most likely JRP will be able to capture a majority or near majority in the 大阪(Osaka) prefecture assembly.
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jaichind
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« Reply #161 on: April 07, 2019, 06:20:58 am »

Exit polls in 大阪(Osaka) City show that support for Osaka Metropolis plan to be 58-42.   If so look forward to JRP getting another referendum on this after it failed narrowly in 2015.
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jaichind
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« Reply #162 on: April 07, 2019, 08:02:44 am »

島根(Shimane) governor called for the LDP rebel over the official LDP candidate just like I predicted will be the case.
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jaichind
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« Reply #163 on: April 07, 2019, 08:05:53 am »

Asahi exit poll for  大阪(Osaka) City mayor contest.  The basic idea behind the JRP landslide is that the JRP candidate won 1/3 (33%) of the LDP supporters which is 21% of the electorate and wins pretty much all of the JRP supporters which is 44% of the electorate.
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jaichind
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« Reply #164 on: April 07, 2019, 08:40:50 am »

静岡市(Shizuoka) mayor called for pro-LDP incumbent over ex-mayor LDP rebel and JCP.  This completes my perfect prediction record for all key races this cycle.
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jaichind
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« Reply #165 on: April 07, 2019, 09:05:06 am »

In two prefectures the local LDP has turned on the incumbent governor that they backed 2015 by pushing their own candidate. 

In 福井(Fukui) it worked where with 58% of the vote it is LDP 55.4% Opposition backed incumbent 37.9% JCP 6.7%.   

In 福岡(Fukuoka) it failed comically with 48% of the vote it is Opposition backed incumbent 72.8% LDP 20.0% JCP 7.1%.  It seems huge part of the LDP base rejected the attempt of a part of the local LDP to impose their own candidate over a traditionally pro-LDP incumbent that also has opposition support. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #166 on: April 07, 2019, 09:07:43 am »

In 北海道(Hokkaido) governor race what was suppose to be a close contest for an open seat between LDP-KP-NPD and CDP-DPP-LP-SDP-JCP became a blowout with 45% of the vote counted it is LDP-KP-JRP-NPD 61.1% CDP-DPP-LP-SDP-JCP 38.9%
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jaichind
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« Reply #167 on: April 07, 2019, 09:09:30 am »

In 大阪(Osaka) governor race it is a landslide with 45% of the vote counted with JRP 62.2% LDP-KP-DPP 37.6% (with implicit support from CDP and JCP)
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jaichind
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« Reply #168 on: April 07, 2019, 09:11:07 am »

The open seat in 島根(Shimane) governor race with 91% of the vote counted has LDP rebel 43.2% LDP 34.0% Another LDP rebel 12.3% JCP 12.5%,
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jaichind
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« Reply #169 on: April 07, 2019, 10:56:16 am »

Not call counting is done yet so a bunch of seats are still not called for 大阪(Osaka) prefecture elections but it seems that JRP made a bunch of gains from LDP and should be headed to a narrow majority by itself without KP which has shifted to LDP anyway.  The JRP "castle" gambit worked.
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jaichind
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« Reply #170 on: April 07, 2019, 11:37:07 am »

With 87 out of 88 seats in the 大阪(Osaka) prefecture called JRP has won 51.  This is a first in Japanese prefecture assembly election history that a party that is not called the LDP has ever won a majority of seats.  Even the Koike Tokyo TPFA-KP landslide victory over LDP in 2017 did not have TPFA winning a majority of seats by itself.  JRP took on LDP-KP by itself and defeated this powerful combo.  It seems, if anything, Osaka regionalism has grown this last decade than dissipate even as JRP shrivels to near nothing outside of the Kinki region.
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jaichind
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« Reply #171 on: April 07, 2019, 11:39:29 am »

A superficial glance at the various prefecture assembly results seems to indicate that CDP is growing at the expense LDP JCP DPP and even KP in urban areas.  In rural areas DPP is losing ground to LDP.  Overall I think LDP-KP lost a bit of ground outside 大阪(Osaka) relative to 2015 but it is very small and mostly because of the CDP urban surge.  In 大阪(Osaka) clearly LDP-KP lost a good amount of ground to JRP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #172 on: April 11, 2019, 04:24:47 pm »

Abe just had to accept the resignation of 桜田 義孝(Sakurada Yosh**taka) who is his Olympics minister due to remarks deemed offensive to people affected by the 2011 earthquake and tsunami.  Of course Sakurada is pretty famous for these gaffes.  Back in 2018 he admired that he has never used a computer before.    Anyway, another blow to Abe although nowhere near to be fatal.
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jaichind
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« Reply #173 on: April 14, 2019, 08:39:36 am »

After the prefecture assembly elections the situation in the  by-elections in 大阪(Osaka) 12th and 沖縄(Okinawa) 3rd looks a lot darker.  Recent polls seems that in 大阪(Osaka) 12th where LDP should have an edge the JRP candidate have surged in from of the LDP, mostly due the loss of support  of the ex-DPJ ex-HP candidate to the JRP candidate due to lukewarm support from DPP-CDP.  I think if DPP-CDP-JCP could have consolidated around a candidate then they could have make it a close 3 way race but as it is JRP seems to be running away with it.  In 沖縄(Okinawa) 3rd it seems the joint opposition candidate is surging ahead in the polls despite the LDP nominating a strong candidate (former LDP MP from the Upper House.)
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jaichind
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« Reply #174 on: April 15, 2019, 10:38:53 am »
« Edited: April 15, 2019, 10:42:38 am by jaichind »

Ashai poll on PR vote for Upper Hose elections in July (diff from March poll)

LDP    39 (-1)
KP        5(-1)
JRP       7(+3)
HP         0(-1)
DPP       2(--)
LP         1(-1)
CDP    13(+1)
SDP      1(-1)
JCP       6(--)

Big gains for JRP after its 大阪(Osaka) victory in governor and prefecture assembly elections.  All things equal LP and DPP will most likely run a joint PR list.

My current guess on PR seats are

LDP     18
KP         7
JRP        3
HP         0
DPP-LP   3
CDP     13
JCP        5

I think JRP might do one better at the expense of JCP.
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