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August 19, 2019, 09:50:55 pm
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  2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
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Author Topic: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)  (Read 21925 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #175 on: April 20, 2019, 07:52:19 am »

All signs are that for the 大阪(Osaka) 12th and 沖縄(Okinawa) 3rd by-election tomorrow the LDP continues to implode.  It seems in 沖縄(Okinawa) 3rd LDP might get blown out 60-40. 

In 大阪(Osaka) 12th the LDP is clearly well behind the JRP candidate and now risks being pushed to 3rd by the by the ex-DPJ ex-HP PR MP who is tactically being backed by DPP and perhaps CDP.  The candidate backed by JCP-SDP-LP is clearly running 4th.  My best guess for this by-election would be

JRP                39
LDP                27
ex-DPJ ex-HP  25 (tacitly backed by DPP and perhaps CDP)
JCP-SDP-LP      9
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jaichind
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« Reply #176 on: April 21, 2019, 06:03:46 am »

NHK exit polls calls it for JRP in 大阪(Osaka) 12th and united opposition in 沖縄(Okinawa) 3rd.  It does seem like the JRP victory is not large so NHK cannot be 100% sure.  JRP not celebrating yet.
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jaichind
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« Reply #177 on: April 21, 2019, 06:06:53 am »

大阪(Osaka) 12th exit polls. LDP edges out ex-DPK ex-HP independent for second

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jaichind
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« Reply #178 on: April 21, 2019, 06:20:31 am »

NHK exit polls for 大阪(Osaka) 12th seems to be closer than MBS so they are not making a call yet.  NHK exit poll party ID are

LDP   26
KP       8
JRP    30
DPP     1
CDP     4
JCP      5

with the JRP candidate winning 80% of the JRP vote and 20% of the LDP vote.  The LDP candidate is winning 50% if the LDP vote and 60% of KP vote.  These numbers seems to indicate an easy JRP win.  Not sure why NHK is not calling it with these numbers.
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jaichind
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« Reply #179 on: April 21, 2019, 06:24:46 am »

Eyeballing the MBS exit poll for 大阪(Osaka) 12th it seems to indicate something like

JRP                42
LDP                26
ex-DPJ ex-HP  23 (tacitly backed by DPP and perhaps CDP)
JCP-SDP-LP      9

Not too far from my prediction
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jaichind
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« Reply #180 on: April 21, 2019, 06:34:13 am »

Exit polls for 沖縄(Okinawa) 3rd seems to have it as a blowout.  United opposition wins 64.4% of the early vote and 70% of election day vote.  I suspect this exit poll have an urban bias and the LDP will not be beaten that badly.


LDP candidate wins 84% of the LDP/KP/JRP vote and pretty much nothing else
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jaichind
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« Reply #181 on: April 21, 2019, 06:53:52 am »

大阪(Osaka) 12th exit polls show a strong majority for Osaka Metropolis plan.  JRP seems to be riding this for a second wind in Osaka.  In 沖縄(Okinawa) 3rd of course it is all about the base. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #182 on: April 21, 2019, 07:08:55 am »

A cross-tab based estimate of NHK exit polls for 大阪(Osaka) 12th exit polls would yield

JRP                41.1
LDP                28.3
ex-DPJ ex-HP  20.7 (tacitly backed by DPP and perhaps CDP)
JCP-SDP-LP      9.3

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jaichind
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« Reply #183 on: April 21, 2019, 07:23:39 am »

沖縄(Okinawa) 3rd exit poll by age.  LDP winning the youth vote but gets crushed in middle age and elderly voters.
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jaichind
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« Reply #184 on: April 21, 2019, 08:10:29 am »

沖縄(Okinawa) 3rd with 50% of the vote counted

Joint Opposition candidate   52%
LDP                                   48%

The count has a rural bias so far so the Opposition victory will be greater than this.  Still, like I suspected the exit poll overestimated the scale of LDP defeat.
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jaichind
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« Reply #185 on: April 21, 2019, 08:23:01 am »

沖縄(Okinawa) 3rd with 67% of the vote counted

Joint Opposition candidate   52.7%
LDP                                   47.3%
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jaichind
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« Reply #186 on: April 21, 2019, 08:34:22 am »

沖縄(Okinawa) 3rd with 87% of the vote counted

Joint Opposition candidate   55.6%
LDP                                   44.4%
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jaichind
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« Reply #187 on: April 21, 2019, 08:37:41 am »

大阪(Osaka) 12th with 24% of the vote counted

JRP                40.2
LDP                29.5
ex-DPJ ex-HP  20.1 (tacitly backed by DPP and perhaps CDP)
JCP-SDP-LP     10.1
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jaichind
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« Reply #188 on: April 21, 2019, 08:46:14 am »

大阪(Osaka) 12th with 42% of the vote counted

JRP                34.5
LDP                28.3
ex-DPJ ex-HP  23.0 (tacitly backed by DPP and perhaps CDP)
JCP-SDP-LP     14.3
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jaichind
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« Reply #189 on: April 21, 2019, 08:51:45 am »

沖縄(Okinawa) 3rd with 97% of the vote counted (I think it will be pretty much this) (diff on 2017 result)

Joint Opposition candidate   56.2% (-1.7%)
LDP                                   43.8% (+3.5%)

LDP picking up the 2017 HRP vote.  The candidate quality balance is clearly  lean toward LDP in this by-election relative to 2017 and it shows.
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jaichind
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« Reply #190 on: April 21, 2019, 09:12:21 am »

大阪(Osaka) 12th with 50% of the vote counted

JRP                37.2%
LDP                29.8%
ex-DPJ ex-HP  20.9% (tacitly backed by DPP and perhaps CDP)
JCP-SDP-LP     12.1%
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jaichind
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« Reply #191 on: April 21, 2019, 09:17:24 am »

大阪(Osaka) 12th with 71% of the vote counted

JRP                41.9%
LDP                29.7%
ex-DPJ ex-HP  17.7% (tacitly backed by DPP and perhaps CDP)
JCP-SDP-LP     10.7%
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jaichind
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« Reply #192 on: April 21, 2019, 09:44:20 am »

大阪(Osaka) 12th with 95% of the vote counted

JRP                39.2%
LDP                30.7%
ex-DPJ ex-HP  21.0% (tacitly backed by DPP and perhaps CDP)
JCP-SDP-LP       9.1%
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jaichind
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« Reply #193 on: April 21, 2019, 10:04:48 am »

沖縄(Okinawa) 3rd all done (diff on 2017 result)

Joint Opposition candidate   56.5% (-1.4%)
LDP                                   43.5% (+3.2%)
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jaichind
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« Reply #194 on: April 21, 2019, 10:11:53 am »

大阪(Osaka) 12th unofficially done (diff vs 2017)

JRP                38.5% (-2.1%)
LDP                30.0% (-15.0%)
ex-DPJ ex-HP  22.6% (NA) (tacitly backed by DPP and perhaps CDP)
JCP-SDP-LP       8.9% (-5.5%)

There was a large shift from LDP to JRP.  HP (now de facto DPP) backed JRP in 2017 so most of that support went to ex-DPJ ex-HP candidate while CDP backed JCP in 2017 where a lot of it went to the ex-DPJ ex-HP candidate.

We can also look at these results relative to 2014 when the ex-DPJ ex-HP candidate actually ran as the DPJ candidate.

JRP                38.5% (+14.3%)
LDP                30.0% (-10.0%)
ex-DPJ ex-HP  22.6% (-2.6%) (tacitly backed by DPP and perhaps CDP)
JCP-SDP-LP       8.9% (-1.7%)

So relative to 2014 which was peak JCP anyway there was a falloff in JCP support but also some shift of the old DPJ base over to JRP.  Other than these smaller shifts the LDP->JRP shift is dramatic and clear.
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jaichind
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« Reply #195 on: April 21, 2019, 10:13:31 am »

My prediction for 大阪(Osaka) 12th

JRP                39
LDP                27
ex-DPJ ex-HP  25 (tacitly backed by DPP and perhaps CDP)
JCP-SDP-LP      9

was mostly on the mark for JRP and JCP.  I underestimated LDP by a couple of percentage points relative to the ex-DPJ ex-HP independent. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #196 on: April 24, 2019, 08:35:14 am »

With defeat in 2 lower house by-elections there are noises within the LDP and KP to once again delay the planned sales tax increase.  Abe drew a line in the sand last year saying that there will be no delay unless there is a financial crisis like Lehman 2008 but there will be pressure from within the LDP to do so to avoid a possible recession in 2020 and also to pump up LDP-KP prospects in the upcoming Upper House elections.
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jaichind
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« Reply #197 on: April 24, 2019, 09:01:13 am »
« Edited: April 24, 2019, 08:52:56 pm by jaichind »

Sankei Shimbun magazine political analyst 松田馨(Matsuda Kaoru) came out with his Upper House and Lower House projections.  As usual they are pretty negative for LDP.  At this stage of the election cycle all projections will be negative for LDP to help sell magazines (since everyone expects LDP to do well a negative projection adds to the shock value and make people want to buy the magazine)

Anyway for Upper House he has it at
       District     PR        Total
LDP     35        17         52 (-14)
KP        6          7         13 (+2)
HP        1          0          1  (-2)
JRP       3          5          8 (+2)
DPP      4          3          7  (-1)
CDP    18        12         30(+22)
LP         0         0           0 (-1)
SDP      0          1          1 (--)
JCP      2          5           7 (-1)
OPPN   5          0           5        (CDP-DPP-SDP-LP-JCP joint opposition candidates)




Which comes out to

LDP+           65
Center-Left   43
Third Pole      9
JCP               7

This reflects a clear surge of JRP since their Osaka based victories in prefecture and by-elections.  Most CW projections has LDP+ at around 72 so clearly this projection is pretty negative on LDP.

For Lower House he has it at

           District     PR      Total
LDP       185         62      247  (-36)
KP            4!!       22        26  (-3)
HP            0           0          0  (-2)
JRP          14        13         27 (+15)
DPP         15         15        30 (-7)
CDP         64        53       117 (+62)
LP             1          0          1 (-1)
SDP          1          1          2 (--)
JCP           1         11        12(--)
OPPN        7                      7

Main shocks are that KP would only 4 district seats.  KP usually contest 9 seats and wins all 9.  They unexpectedly lost 1 out of 9 in 2017.  I guess this means that JRP will go all out to take on KP and most likely defeat KP in a bunch of seats in  大阪(Osaka).  

I am surprised he has JCP winning 1 district seat.  I suspect with JRP openly joining forces with LDP-KP in  沖縄(Okinawa) that in 沖縄(Okinawa) 1st district LDP-KP-JRP grand alliance should defeat JCP.  

Of course JRP winning 14 district seats is a real surge of JRP in  大阪(Osaka).  Even at the peak of JRP fortunes in 2012 JRP only won 12 seats in  大阪(Osaka).   I guess this time they will also target KP seats which will also yield a few extra victories.

I genially do not buy the district seats of DPP 15 and CDP 64.  If you go seat by seat it is clear that a lot of viable opposition candidates are members of DPP.  I am pretty sure even if the Opposition does at well as he suggests at the district level it will be something like DPP 30 CDP 50 unless there are more DPP->CDP defections between now and the election.

 
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jaichind
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« Reply #198 on: April 26, 2019, 06:44:43 am »

LP formally merges into DPP.  The only real impact would be on the PR section of the Upper House election.  LP has around at 1.5%-2% vote share and in a election where the de facto threshold is around 1.7% and the seat allocation is by d'hondt method this would mean that whereas the DPP was looking at 2-3 seats on the PR section in the Upper House election now they are more likely to be looking at 3-4 seats assuming the LP vote transfer over.  I suspect some of the LP PR vote will go to CDP and SDP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #199 on: April 26, 2019, 01:26:17 pm »

Even as a Center-Left party (LP) merge into DPP another one appears.  It is 令和新選組 or Reiwa Shinsengumi which I guess I will call RS for now until, if ever, they come up with an official English name.  Reiwa or 令和 is the name of the new Imperial Era and Shinsengumi is the name of a military task for in the Tokugawa shogunate period.  One way to translate Shinsengumi  would be "elite task force." 

Anyway this party is formed by 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) who was elected in 2013 Upper House election in the Tokyo district as an anti-nuclear extreme Left candidate.  He joined PLP which became LP in 2014 as joint leaders of a the united party with Ozawa.  Now that Ozawa has merged LP into DPP  山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) does not want to join the Centrist DPP and prefers to form his own party of the Left.  I think RS might pull in 0.5% to 1.0% of the PR vote if he chooses to contest in the PR race but it seems RS is mostly about 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) reelection in the Tokyo district which so far he seems favored to finish in the top 6 and win re-election.

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