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  2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
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Author Topic: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)  (Read 24334 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #225 on: June 03, 2019, 04:10:18 pm »

"History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce" - Karl Marx

These are my thoughts when I read that 渡辺 喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) was going to reactivate YP.  When YP was formed in 2009 I was one of the first to want to support it.  YP gave people like me on the nationalist neoliberal Right something to support after having to back the LDP with all their clientelist  baggage over the years.  In the end Watanabe blew it by getting himself trapped in various funding scandals which eventually led up to the breakup and dissolution of YP in 2014.   JRP is a poor replacement for YP given its sectional appeal as it is clear JRP is more about Osaka than any real commitment to any real neoliberal agenda.  This current incantation of YP is a joke compared to the potential of YP in 2009 and seems to me just another scheme for  Watanabe  to enhance his political bargaining chips to make way for his eventual rejoining of the LDP as there are some LDP factions in 栃木(Tochigi) that oppose Watanabe rejoining LDP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #226 on: June 04, 2019, 05:37:52 pm »

Upper house elections schedule for 7/21
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jaichind
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« Reply #227 on: June 05, 2019, 10:52:23 am »

There is an old Arab Bedouin saying: I, against my brothers. I and my brothers against my cousins. I and my brothers and my cousins against the world. "

This describes the relationships of the opposition parties. 

In 1- member seats  it sis CDP-DPP alliiance with JCP to take on LDP
In 2- member seats it is CDP-DPP alliance to keep JCP out and/or to stop LDP to win both seats  like in (広島) Hiroshima
In some 3- member seats it is CDP-DPP alliance to keep out JCP from the 3rd seat and in others it is a 3 way battle between CDP DPP and JCP for the 3rd seats
In 4- and 6- member districts is it a free for all between CDP DPP and JCP

CDP and DPP are brothers since both are really factions of the old DPJ and JCP I guess is a cousin with the LDP the rest of the world.
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jaichind
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« Reply #228 on: June 05, 2019, 11:37:23 am »

In 3- member district 北海道(Hokkaido) it seems CDP will not nominate a second candidate.  This will leave 2 LDP candidates, 1 CDP, 1 DPP and 1 JCP candidate in the field.  Due to retirements none of the candidates are incumbents.  The LDP clearly have an edge here to win 2 out of 3 seats.  One of the LDP candidates is a former popular governor while the DPP candidate which would be expected to win the 2nd seat for the Opposition is fairly lackluster.  Further more it seems neither NPD nor JRP will run which will avoid the splitting of the LDP-KP vote while JCP will be running to split the anti-LDP vote.

The opposition has to hope for a poor distribution of the LDP-KP vote between the 2 LDP candidates, some KP vote defection to the Opposition, some tactical voting by the JCP PR vote for CDP and DPP, and a very efficient distribution of the vote between the CDP and DPP candidate.   It is unlikely that all these stars will be aligned so LDP should win 2 out of 3 seats.
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jaichind
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« Reply #229 on: June 05, 2019, 12:05:30 pm »

As mentioned before, this year in 広島(Hiroshima) the LDP is going to try something that it used to try all the time, and succeeded once in awhile, in the pre-1993 era: Win both seats of a 2- member district.  The last time any party really tried this was back in 2010 when Ozawa, assuming a large DPJ vote, tried to do this in many 2- member districts which utterly failed due to the surprising fall of the DPJ vote relative to 2009.

The LDP logic is if you look at the 2013 and 2016 results for 広島(Hiroshima), they are

2013
LDP    46.3%  elected
DPJ    17.2%  elected
JRP     15.4%
PLP     12.2%
JCP      7.6%
HRP     1.3%

2016
LDP    49.8%
DP      23.1%
ORA   13.8%
JCP      7.7%
PJK      2.5%
HRP     1.6%
Left     1.5%

PJK has since merged into LDP.  This time around JRP will not run a candidate so the way the LDP figures it if LDP runs 2 candidates, with CDP and DPP running a candidate each as well as JCP then the LDP should be able to win both seats since LDP should be able to pick up most of the JRP vote on the assumption that the Southern JRP vote leans LDP and the Northern JRP vote leans Opposition.  Of course CDP and DPP countered by the DPP candidate drooping out and the CDP candidate running as an independent with joint support from CDP-DPP.  So most likely LDP will fail in its plan to win both seats.

The last time any party win both seats in a 2- member district was in 1992  when LDP pulled it off in 福島(Fukushima) when it was

LDP         29.6%
LDP         29.2%
Rengo      27.3% (Rengo labor union united front of all non-JDP anti-LDP opposition parties)
JSP rebel   7.4%
JCP           6.5%

which was only achieved because of very effective vote allocation between the two LDP candidates and the JSP rebel that split the non-JCP opposition vote
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jaichind
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« Reply #230 on: June 05, 2019, 12:17:00 pm »

Opposition parties submit bill to legalize same-sex marriage in Japan

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/06/04/national/politics-diplomacy/opposition-parties-submit-bill-legalize-sex-marriage-japan/#.XPf3uBZKguU

It seems CDP-SDP-JCP (note: does not include DPP) submitted a bill to legalize gay marriage.  This will go nowhere of course but this seems like a scheme by the CDP and JCP to push up turnout among their supporters.  They figure any votes lost by this maneuver were lost and are going to turn out in the July 21st election to vote LDP anyway.   With LDP and Abe approval fairly high compared to last year it seems to counter the LDP advantage in a low turnout election the opposition, especially the CDP needs to push up turnout.   

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jaichind
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« Reply #231 on: June 05, 2019, 12:23:56 pm »

In a blow and embarrassment to the JRP the 丸山穂高(Maruyama Hodaka) scandal continues to drag on.   Maruyama is the JRP winner of the 大阪(Osaka) 19th district seat 3 elections in a row.  In May he visited one of the four four Russian-held islands off Hokkaido that Japan claims.  It seems he got drunk and started say to the local Japanese leader that "War between Japan and Russia is the only way to resolve the dispute over these island" and "Are there women?" and "I want to go out to grope breasts."

Once these comments made its way to the media there has been an uproar with Maruyama having to resign from JRP and now under pressure to resign his seat.  There will be a Lower House censure of Maruyama which is not legally binding for him to resign his seat.  JRP will not nominate him next election for sure but it seems the damage to the JRP is already done.
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Chosen One Giuseppe Conte
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« Reply #232 on: June 06, 2019, 10:37:09 am »

Opposition parties submit bill to legalize same-sex marriage in Japan

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/06/04/national/politics-diplomacy/opposition-parties-submit-bill-legalize-sex-marriage-japan/#.XPf3uBZKguU

It seems CDP-SDP-JCP (note: does not include DPP) submitted a bill to legalize gay marriage.  This will go nowhere of course but this seems like a scheme by the CDP and JCP to push up turnout among their supporters.  They figure any votes lost by this maneuver were lost and are going to turn out in the July 21st election to vote LDP anyway.   With LDP and Abe approval fairly high compared to last year it seems to counter the LDP advantage in a low turnout election the opposition, especially the CDP needs to push up turnout.   

This seems like a potentially good tactic to me. Japan's traditional homophobia isn't quite what it used to be and my impression is that Abenomics is still distinct enough from neoliberal orthodoxy that it's probably easier for the opposition to draw a clear distinction on this sort of thing than on the economy.
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jaichind
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« Reply #233 on: June 07, 2019, 04:50:02 am »

In 宮崎(Miyazaki) the Center-Left Opposition and JCP agreed to support a CDP candidate and in 鹿児島(Kagoshima) the Center-Left Opposition and JCP agreed to support a DPP candidate.   So now in all 32 1- member districts the Center Opposition-JCP have one candidate to take on LDP just like in 2016.

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jaichind
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« Reply #234 on: June 08, 2019, 05:22:08 am »

United front candidates of Center-Left Opposition and JCP.
In 鳥取(Tottori)/島根(Shimane) and 徳島(Tokushima)/高知(Kōchi) the JCP candidates will run as independents

Deep Blue - CDP
Light Blue - CDP running as Independent
Orange - DPP
Light Orange - DPP running as Independent
Red - JCP
Light Red - JCP running as Independent
Light Green - Rengo background running as Independent
Grey - ex-DPJ or OMSP (in 沖縄(Okinawa))running as independent 
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jaichind
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« Reply #235 on: June 08, 2019, 06:38:00 am »

It seems this time around the LDP will actually go through with the consumption tax hike later this year and will not be able to run on a delay in the tax hike like it did in 2016.  Despite talk there seems to be no signs of a double elections so I guess Abe is going to take his chances of doing well in the Upper House elections held by itself in the backdroup of an increase in consumption taxes and deal with a lower house elections post 2020 when there might be a economic slowdown due to the new consumption taxes.
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jaichind
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« Reply #236 on: June 10, 2019, 09:35:11 am »

Latest Abe approval rating curve having the Abe cabinet approval holding almost 50%


Party support curve have LDP and both LDP and CDP holding steady



This put the Aoki Index (sum of Cabinet approval plus LDP support) around 85 (48+37) which historically points to a significant LDP victory.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #237 on: June 10, 2019, 06:40:48 pm »

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jaichind
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« Reply #238 on: June 10, 2019, 06:43:59 pm »

Mainichi Sunday Weekly's 松田肇( Matsuda Atsushi) came out with a projection for Upper House

LDP     55
KP       14
JRP       8
DPP      5
CDP    24
SDP      1
JCP       7
Minor   1 (I have to assume RS)
OPPN   9

Which would give us by bloc (124 total seats)

LDP-KP          69
Center-Left    40
Third Pole        8
JCP                 7

The 2016 class is now (121 total seats)

LDP-KP          71
Center-Left    37
Third Pole        7
JCP                 6

Which combines to gives us after the 2019 elections (245 seats)

LDP-KP        140
Center-Left    77
Third Pole      15
JCP               13

With the Center-Left bloc + JCP at 36.7% of total seats and a blocking minority for Constitutional change.

As mentioned before at this stage in the campaign the LDP tend to be underestimated.  Still even if the Center-Left plus JCP does 8 seats worse than these projections they still would be above 33% of Upper House seats
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jaichind
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« Reply #239 on: June 11, 2019, 04:27:00 am »

週刊ポスト(Weekly Post) projection for Tokyo is

LDP KP JCP RS CDP with LDP DPP CDP and JRP fighting for the 6th and last seat.


Which is a shock.  It was expected that the second LDP candidate should also be safely elected.  This poll indicate that LDP might miss out on the second LDP seats here.
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Lok
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« Reply #240 on: June 13, 2019, 07:32:48 am »

Where in politics does Yamamoto Taro fall in?
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jaichind
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« Reply #241 on: June 13, 2019, 08:12:22 am »

Where in politics does Yamamoto Taro fall in?

Anti-nuclear power Far Left.  The thing about Tokyo voters are that they are not ideological but are attracted to candidates and parties with strong vision and conviction.  They tend to vote LDP recently mostly because they see LDP having and vision and being effective versus the DPJ.  The Koike and then CDP surge both have the same attributes. So while Tokyo leans LDP on the PR vote many of candidates in Tokyo that lean Left but project a strong vision would get the same Tokyo voter that voted LDP on the PR slate.  This time around 山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) might be in trouble as some of his 2013 vote might drift to the two CDP candidates.
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jaichind
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« Reply #242 on: June 13, 2019, 08:38:58 am »

2017 PR vote for HRP.

HRP is the political wing of the Happy Science cult.  Its political position is fairly hawk far right and picks up disgruntled LDP voters.  The HRP PR vote is highly correlated with economic distress and decline



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jaichind
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« Reply #243 on: June 13, 2019, 11:18:54 am »

With 神奈川(Kanagawa) Upper House incumbent and leader of rump HP 松沢 成文(Matsuzawa Shigefumi) joining JRP to run for JRP we have yet another hope for one of the more famous party hoppers.



松沢 成文(Matsuzawa Shigefumi) started politics as PP backed independent in the late 1980s as someone with a center-right political position.  PP was a Centrist successor party of LDP splinter LL which was formed after LL merged back into LDP in 1987.  He then joined LDP splinter JRP (Japan Renewal Party) which was one of the LDP splinters of the 1992-1993 big party realignment and was elected as a lower house MP in 1993.    When JRP merged into NFP in 1994 he then became part of NFP.   After NPF broke up in 1998 he joined NPF splinter GGP which in turn merged into DPJ.   He became part of the DPJ Right.   In 2003 he left the DPJ to run for the governor 神奈川(Kanagawa) defeating the LDP in a crowed chaotic field.  He was re-elected in 2007.   During this period his politics shifted to the Far Right.   In 2011 he gave up his position of governor 神奈川(Kanagawa) and  planned to run for governor of Tokyo on the premise that  the incumbent 石原 慎太郎(Ishihara Shintarō) will not run for re-election and back him.  石原 慎太郎 (Ishihara Shintarō) ran in 2011 and left 松沢 成文(Matsuzawa Shigefumi) out in the cold.  石原 慎太郎 (Ishihara Shintarō) resigned in 2012 to join JRP and a by-election for Tokyo governor was held in 2012 where 松沢 成文(Matsuzawa Shigefumi) ran with implicit support from  石原 慎太郎 (Ishihara Shintarō) but was defeated.    He then joined YP and ran in 2013 Upper House elections in  神奈川(Kanagawa) and was elected in a 4- member district.  In late 2014 YP broke up and he joined PFG which was founded by his new mentor 石原 慎太郎 (Ishihara Shintarō) who just retired from politics.   In 2015 he ran for the leadership for FPG and was defeated.  In anger he resigned from PFG.  When Koike formed HP in 2017 he joined and after most of the ex-DPJ members of HP formed DPP in 2018 he became head of the rump HP. Now he will join JRP.  I suspect on the long run where he really belongs is LDP but he has bad blood with the various LDP factions in  神奈川(Kanagawa) so he is pretty much jumping around and joining all non-LDP Center-Right parties.
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jaichind
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« Reply #244 on: June 15, 2019, 06:34:09 pm »

It might be useful to focus in a bit more on Tokyo.  Tokyo is a 6- member district.  In 2013 when it was a 5- member district it was LDP KP JCP RS LDP.  DPJ in 2012 goofed up its nomination strategy where it nominated two candidates but once it realized that it was a over-nomination it tried to withdraw one of its candidates who in turn ran as an independent and took away enough votes from the other DPJ candidates to let the no-to-popular second LDP candidate to squeeze in.  RS here is obviously the radical left anti-nuclear 山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō).

This time around on the on the Right we have the 2 LDP and 1 KP incumbent as well as a JRP candidate 音喜多駿 (Otsuki Tae) who has a YP background and is a MLA of Tokyo and was re-elected in 2017 riding the Koike wave until he went over the JRP.


The problem for the Right here is that the  more popular of the two LDP incumbents 丸川 珠代( Marukawa Tamayo) will tend to pull in a large part of the Center-Right vote and hurt both the second LDP candidate as well as the JRP candidate from crossing the threshold.

       

On the Left it is a crowded field.  The JCP and RS incumbents are running for re-election.  Here the RS candidate 山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) is the wild card because he actually have cross-partisan appeal despite his Far Left politics


In addition CDP nominated 2 candidates, DPP 1 and SDP 1 candidate each.  The more popular of the CDP candidates is 塩村文夏(Shiomura Ayaka) who is Tokyo MLA


It seems that the LDP KP and JCP will for sure get into the top 6 as KP and JCP have their own core vote which would be enough to get them across the finishing line.  The DPP and SDP candidates cannot win but can be relevant on how much of the Center-Left vote they pull in.

Most likely 山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) will win the 4th seat leaving 塩村文夏(Shiomura Ayaka) and the second LDP incumbent to win the last two seats.  Depending on how much the second CDP candidate as well as the DPP can SDP pulls in from the Center Left vote and how much  丸川 珠代( Marukawa Tamayo) pulls in from the Center Right vote will determine if JRP's 音喜多駿 (Otsuki Tae) could sneak in or perhaps the second CDP candidate could sneak in ahead of the second LDP candidate or even 塩村文夏(Shiomura Ayaka). 

At this stage other than LDP's 丸川 珠代( Marukawa Tamayo), the JCP candidate and the KP candidate no other candidate is a sure bet to win.
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jaichind
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« Reply #245 on: June 16, 2019, 03:36:20 pm »

Another fringe right wing party that has ran in various Upper house district seats before but this time will also run on the PR slate is NHKから国民を守る党 or Party to protect people from the NHK.


The party which has been around since 2013 is founded and led by 立花 孝志 (Tachibana Takashi).  He seems to have worked for NHK for a long time but had a falling out and was fired from his job there.  The party's position is that the NHK is part of some World Government Globalist conspiracy and is focused on de-funding NHK.    This had some some successes in various local elections as a protest party but is unlikely to get anywhere close to even a reasonable chunk of votes to win any seats on the PR slate.
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xelas81
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« Reply #246 on: June 16, 2019, 04:07:58 pm »

Another fringe right wing party that has ran in various Upper house district seats before but this time will also run on the PR slate is NHKから国民を守る党 or Party to protect people from the NHK.

The party which has been around since 2013 is founded and led by 立花 孝志 (Tachibana Takashi).  He seems to have worked for NHK for a long time but had a falling out and was fired from his job there.  The party's position is that the NHK is part of some World Government Globalist conspiracy and is focused on de-funding NHK.    This had some some successes in various local elections as a protest party but is unlikely to get anywhere close to even a reasonable chunk of votes to win any seats on the PR slate.

LOL
There is literal anime about a guy who thinks NHK is part of vast conspiracy out to get him.
en.wikipedia.org /wiki/Welcome_to_the_N.H.K.
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jaichind
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« Reply #247 on: June 16, 2019, 04:52:16 pm »

Mainichi poll on PR vote (diff from May)

LDP   31(-3)
KP      4(-1)
JRP     6(+1)
DPP    2(+1)
CDP   12(+1)
JCP     5(+2)

LDP-KP losing ground.  JRP surge continues.
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jaichind
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« Reply #248 on: June 16, 2019, 08:35:24 pm »
« Edited: June 16, 2019, 08:40:59 pm by jaichind »

Kyodo News on PR vote (diff from May)

LDP   34.1(-4.1)
KP      4.4(+0.3)
JRP    4.3(-0.3)
DPP    2.0(+0.9)
CDP  12.4(+1.2)
SDP    1.0(+0.3)
JCP     3.0(+0.1)

LDP also losing ground in this poll

Back in June 2016 Kyodo poll was

LDP    28.9
KP       6.3
ORA    2.4
DP     10.9
LP       0.7
SDP    1.6
JCP     5.3
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jaichind
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« Reply #249 on: June 17, 2019, 11:22:53 am »

FNN poll on Constitutional revision (difference from May)

Is it a good idea to have a debate on Constitutional Revision Yes/No 63.3(-13.2)/22.9(+6.9)
Are you for Constitutional revision to explicitly legalize SDF Yes/No 41.5(-6.9)/38(+2.3)



Not that this is about explicitly legalize SDF which traditionally have a small majority for such a change versus removal of pacifist Article  9 which traditionally have large majorities against. 

While poll trend is working against even the watered version of Constitutional revision (explicitly legalize SDF) this issue might still be a winner for LDP.  Like the USA abortion and gun issue in previous years while there has a pro-Choice/pro-gun control majority the number of people that will vote on the abortion issue actually skews pro-Life/anti-gun control.  The bloc of voters are are for Constitutional revision tend to turn out more and are much more likely to vote on the issue.  LDP just cannot go to far and make it the be all and end of of an election campaign lest they unleash a sleeping giant of the anti-constitutional change majority in a high turnout election.
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