Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
July 22, 2019, 07:51:50 pm
News: 2020 Presidential Predictions (General) are now active.

  Atlas Forum
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, Hash, Socialist Mod Stands with ProudWhatsHisName)
  2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 6 7 8 9 10 [11] 12 13 14 15 16 ... 23 Print
Author Topic: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)  (Read 18499 times)
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,691
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #250 on: June 17, 2019, 11:59:27 am »

Another fringe right wing party that has ran in various Upper house district seats before but this time will also run on the PR slate is NHKから国民を守る党 or Party to protect people from the NHK.

The party which has been around since 2013 is founded and led by 立花 孝志 (Tachibana Takashi).  He seems to have worked for NHK for a long time but had a falling out and was fired from his job there.  The party's position is that the NHK is part of some World Government Globalist conspiracy and is focused on de-funding NHK.    This had some some successes in various local elections as a protest party but is unlikely to get anywhere close to even a reasonable chunk of votes to win any seats on the PR slate.

LOL
There is literal anime about a guy who thinks NHK is part of vast conspiracy out to get him.
en.wikipedia.org /wiki/Welcome_to_the_N.H.K.

立花 孝志 (Tachibana Takashi) announcing NHKから国民を守る党(Party to protect people from the NHK) candidate for 長野(Nagano) looks like a complete disaster.  The background make the party seems like some guy's garage and the candidate in question 古屋孝(Takashi Furuya) looks extremely nervous and a complete novice in politics that is unable to speak in public. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rcQ0UCXt_64

Still I am not sure the LDP is laughing.  The fact is   NHKから国民を守る党(Party to protect people from the NHK)  could cut in the the LDP vote can perhaps cost the LDP a seat in the PR slate.
Logged
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,691
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #251 on: June 17, 2019, 05:37:31 pm »
« Edited: June 18, 2019, 12:21:37 pm by jaichind »

FNN poll on PR vote (diff from May)

LDP   31.4 (-8.4)
KP      6.1 (+1.6)
JRP    6.9 (+0.8 )
DPP   1.6 (-0.8 )
CDP   9.2(-0.1)
JCP    4.4 (+0.5)

LDP losing ground but mostly to KP and JRP
Logged
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,691
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #252 on: June 18, 2019, 12:38:56 pm »

Looks like JRP is consolidating all Third Pole (non-LDP Center-Right) forces. 

In 愛知(Aichi) old DPJ right wing splinter TCJ and JRP will run 岬麻紀(Tama Ki) on the JRP ticket in the 4- member district.   In 2016 TCJ ran a candidate with JRP support.  She is unlikely to win but her running can help push up the JRP PR vote. 

In 北海道(Hokkaido) JRP got old LDP anti-postal reform splinter NPD founder and leader 鈴木 宗男(Suzuki Muneo) to run on the JRP PR slate.  NDP was an on again off again DPJ ally back in the 2006-2014 period.  NPD broke with DPJ/DP after it was clear by 2016 that DP wanted an alliance with JCP in 1- member districts.  Suzuki's daughter 鈴木 貴子(Suzuki Takako) who ran and won the DPJ ticket (as part of the best loser PR slate) in 2014 ran and won on the LDP PR slate in 2017.  This is a big coup for JRP which will really push up their PR vote in  北海道(Hokkaido).   I think more likely than not the JRP PR vote will most likely exceed JCP in 2019.  JRP vs JCP PR was 9.20% vs 10.74% in 2016 and in 2017 6.07% vs 7.90%  I think this time around it will most likely be something like JRP 10.0% JCP 9.5%.
Logged
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,691
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #253 on: June 18, 2019, 02:59:50 pm »

Another change in the election law for the Upper House is an adjustment to the PR vote to allow for "specific quota" on the PR slate.

 Until 2001 the way Japan Upper House "PR" section worked was that it was really not a PR section but turned Japan into a massive N- member district.  Back then every party will nominated a bunch of candidates and independents  can run as well in a second ballot where a voter can vote for one of a long list of candidates with the top N (historically around 50) getting elected.  For 2001 this got changed to a Open list PR system where a voter can vote for the party or a particular candidate of said party on the party list and the total votes garnered by a party would determine the number of seats and the top X vote winners on that list being elected.

For 2016 due to rulings by the supreme court on the vote value disparity 鳥取(Tottori) and 島根(Shimane) had to be merged into one district as well as 徳島(Tokushima) and 高知(Kōchi)


After the 2016 Upper House elections voters in these 4 prefecture complained that this left 2 of them without a member of the Upper House to represent them.  To fix this LDP decided to "eat" this one and changed the law to allow for the Open list PR to be changed that allows the party designate candidates as part of a "specific quota" that are at the top of the PR list and are automatically elected as long as the party gets enough votes for them to win.  These candidates are not on the ballot to be voted on.  NHK sort of explains this


So the LDP PR list has a candidate from 徳島(Tokushima) and 島根(Shimane) in their "specific quota" on the top of their list given the LDP candidate for 鳥取(Tottori)/島根(Shimane) is from 鳥取(Tottori) and the LDP candidate from 徳島(Tokushima)/高知(Kōchi) is from 高知(Kōchi) with both certain to win.  Of course this just makes the job of the LDP candidates on the LDP PR list that much harder since that takes away two slots the LDP has that the LDP PR candidates can go after.
Logged
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,691
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #254 on: June 20, 2019, 09:06:07 am »

It seems NHKから国民を守る党(Party to protect people from the NHK) (I guess I will call it PNHK) will is going all out this election and will run candidates in every district.  I guess it is trying to make a name for itself just like HRP did in 2009 in running candidates almost everywhere.  Now that HRP is reconsigned as an "established"  fringe protest party it is much more conservative in its nomination strategy.  PNHK I guess want to get their name out there this election.  The impact will be small but will cut into the disgruntled LDP vote.   This move will also help the PNHK PR vote although not for them to get a PR seat.
Logged
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,691
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #255 on: June 23, 2019, 10:00:56 am »

Asahi poll for PR vote

LDP   40(+3)
KP      6(--)
JRP     6(-1)
DPP    3(--)   
CDP  13(+1)
SDP    1(--)
RS      1(--)
JCP     5(--)

Back in June 2016 the Asahi poll for PR was

LDP    38 (-1)
KP        7 (--)
ORA      4 (-2)
DP      15 (+3)
JCP      6 (-1)

The Right-Left balance seem to be similar in 2019 as 2016
Logged
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,691
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #256 on: June 24, 2019, 07:31:33 am »
« Edited: June 24, 2019, 09:23:09 am by jaichind »

NHK poll came in with a drop in Abe Cabinet approval  and LDP support

Abe Approval 42/34



Ths is leading to drop in the Abe cabinet approval curve.


LDP party support also dropping a bit


 Aoki Index (sum of Cabinet approval plus LDP support) around 82 (46+36) which historically points to a significant LDP victory but it lower than most other Abe victories.

The NHK based Aoki Index is 73.6 (42+31.6) which is lower than other Abe victories: 2013 - 99.5, 2014 - 85.1, 2016 - 88.3 and is similar to 2017 - 71.8.

It will be interesting to see if NHK poll is a trend
Logged
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,691
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #257 on: June 24, 2019, 07:35:18 am »

ANN poll on PR vote

LDP    33.0
KP       4.5
JRP      2.8
DPP     1.2
CDP     9.8
SDP    0.8
JCP     5.4

Back in 2016 June the ANN poll on PR was

LDP    43.0
KP       5.2
ORA    2.1
DP     14.9
SDP    1.3
JCP     6.9

Looks like all parties except for JRP have lost ground relative to 2016 which seems to portend a more volatile election result.
Logged
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,691
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #258 on: June 24, 2019, 07:56:26 am »

Hokkaido Times poll for 北海道(Hokkaido) PR vote seems to be good news for LDP as it has

LDP     41
KP        3
JRP      4
DPP      4
CDP    25
SDP     1
JCP      5



LDP-KP tends to around the low 40s in 北海道(Hokkaido) for PR.  In 2017 it dropped to around 40% due to NPD running on the PR slate which ate into the LDP vote.    With NPD founder and leader 鈴木 宗男(Suzuki Muneo) going to run on the JRP PR slate one would have expected LDP-KP to be around 40% at best and JRP doing better than 4%.  This poll seem to indicate that the NRP merger, at least for this election, into JRP did not mean that JRP picks up the 2017 NPD PR vote and instead the 2017 NPD PR vote that came from LDP voters are going back to LDP.
Logged
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,691
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #259 on: June 24, 2019, 08:06:00 pm »

Asahi poll on Abe led Constitutional revision - For/Against 30/50

Abe might have to go gently on this issue although the For bloc is far more motivated and likely to turn out.
Logged
xelas81
Rookie
*
Posts: 23
Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas)


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #260 on: June 24, 2019, 09:57:37 pm »

Asahi poll on Abe led Constitutional revision - For/Against 30/50

Abe might have to go gently on this issue although the For bloc is far more motivated and likely to turn out.

It seems to me that Abe personally wants the Constitutional revision but is unwilling to take the risk to actually to have the referendum. IMO regardless of the actual results the referendum could cause politcal realignment detrimental to LDP and Abe.
Logged
Southern Speaker Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
Atlas Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,749
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #261 on: June 25, 2019, 12:41:13 am »

NHK poll came in with a drop in Abe Cabinet approval  and LDP support
what is the likeliest explanation for this?
Logged
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,691
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #262 on: June 25, 2019, 06:18:34 am »

NHK poll came in with a drop in Abe Cabinet approval  and LDP support
what is the likeliest explanation for this?

Partly the decision to go ahead with consumption tax increase but mostly because of a recent report from the Financial Services Agency suggesting the average couple would need to have saved 20m yen to cover living expenses in retirement given the state of Japan social security system.  The perception is that current Minister of Finance and CPM as well as former PM Tarō Asō is not taking action by proposing "solutions" to this report is dragging down the popularity of the Abe Cabinet and LDP as a whole. 
Logged
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,691
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #263 on: June 25, 2019, 06:42:03 am »

Some things to note about Japanese polls

1) Various party support polls are mostly useless.  Given the social stigma of backing a loser all these polls overestimate LDP support and underestimate everyone else.  Polls in PR voting intentions are better as some anti-LDP voters are willing to state they will vote for an opposition party on the PR line.

2) KP support is always underestimated due to the stigma of being associated with  Soka Gakkai which many view as a cult.  The social stigma of being for KP is mostly even worse than the social stigma of being for JCP.  Many KP supporters claim to be for KP's ally LDP.   KP will always be 12.5-15.0 no matter what regardless of what the polls say. 

3) As a result of 1) and 2), the sum of LDP and KP support or PR vote most likely is the true level of LDP+KP support with the rest scattered among various opposition parties.   

4) Just like KP has social stigma, JRP support outside of 大阪(Osaka) is underestimated due to social stigma of backing what is seen as a 大阪(Osaka) based regional party.

5) Since 2013 LDP-KP PR vote always ends up around 45-50 and this election most likely will be no different.  So elections in Japan is really about guessing the distribution of the rest of the vote.

This time around the election field is somewhat cleaner.  With 50 PR seats the de facto threshold to wins seats is around 1.8%.

1) On the Third Pole side (anti-LDP but Center-Right opposition) it seems JRP pretty much has got rid off or M&A all other Third Pole parties (NDP and TCJ are running on JRP ticket while PJK and NPR are both gone.)  There should be no wasted votes in the Third Pole side.  There are going to be fringe protest parties like HRP and now PNHK but many of voters that will vote for them are protest voters anyway and are just as likely to vote LDP as JRP if HRP and PNHK are not on the ballot.

2) On the Center-Left Opposition space with LP merging into DPP there is a reduction of a vote wasting parties.  RS could be one but I suspect RS should be able to win a seat.  Long time politician 小林興起(Kobayashi Kouki) who started out in the LDP but since 2005 has been in various Opposition or Third Pole parties started new party called "オリーブの木" or Olive that is anti-nuclear and for election reform to get rid of FPTP seats might pull in some center-left votes but it is just as likely to attract disgruntled LDP voters.

3) A danger for LDP-KP is PNHK might win an outsize bloc of LDP voters.  Parties running for the first time in Japan tends to over-perform due to novelty value. This is why I suspect RS might cross 1.8% and PNHK could eat into the LDP and perhaps JRP vote by more than one would expect.
Logged
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,691
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #264 on: June 25, 2019, 06:45:18 am »

Asahi poll on Abe led Constitutional revision - For/Against 30/50

Abe might have to go gently on this issue although the For bloc is far more motivated and likely to turn out.

It seems to me that Abe personally wants the Constitutional revision but is unwilling to take the risk to actually to have the referendum. IMO regardless of the actual results the referendum could cause politcal realignment detrimental to LDP and Abe.

it certainly looks that way.  I think part of Abe just want the issue to motivate the core LDP vote to come out.  Abe might have to wait until he steps from from PM for the  Constitutional revision he wants to take place.  The main problem is that despite winning landslides/solid victories in 2012 2013 2014 2016 2017 and now most likely 2019 Abe is actually not that popular.  Most policies of the Abe cabinet are a less popular than the Abe cabinet.  Anything Abe is for instantly becomes unpopular.  The reason why Abe wins is TINA (the main reason why people are for Abe is "because there is no one else")  Abe will have to step up the political and intellectual basis for  Constitutional revision and let his LDP successor carry it out and win the referendum.   
Logged
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,691
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #265 on: June 26, 2019, 11:18:12 am »

From latest Asahi PR vote poll

LDP (Blue) stronger with the youth.  JRP (Grey) stronger with the middle aged.  CDP(Green) and JCP(Red) stronger with the elderly. 



Although a lot of the middle aged DK (Purple) I suspect are lower turnout CDP or DPP voters.
Logged
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,691
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #266 on: June 26, 2019, 11:22:45 am »

Abe defines the Upper House elections as "whether Japan will move ahead with reforms for a new era under a stable government or it will go back to troubled times" focusing on the TINA issue.

Abe did push the constitutional revision issue but left if vague on what that means.  It seems that LDP will also focus on the fact it enacted legislation to expand child-care support by offering free preschool education.  Of course this law does nothing to expand the supply of preschool education so I am not sure how useful this really is.

CDP seems to think the pension shortfall is an issue that LDP will be vulnerable on and seems to be focusing on that as a main issue.
Logged
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,691
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #267 on: June 26, 2019, 11:49:38 am »

Opposition talking point on LDP performance last few Lower House elections

           Turnout   LDP PR vote   LDP seat share 
                          % of VAP
2009      69%          18%              24%
2012      59%          16%              61%
2014      52%          17%              61%
2017      53%          17%              60%



The key point for the opposition is that high turnout is the way to beat LDP since the LDP vote as a % of VAP is pretty stable last few cycles.
Logged
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,691
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #268 on: June 26, 2019, 06:09:58 pm »

JX poll on Tokyo PR vote.  Massive lead for LDP (diff from last 2017 pre-election poll for PR vote in Tokyo)

LDP  48(+18)
KP      5
JRP     3
DPP    2
CDP  23(+3)
JCP   10(+2)



Looks like most of the 2017 HP PR vote are going over to LDP.  If true this is ominous for CDP.  In the 2013-2016 period the LDP-KP PR vote in Tokyo is around 45% but was around 41% in 2017 due to HP.  This poll seems to imply a LDP surge from that level by  more than 5%.  Most likely a outlier but if it is not then LDP will have a breakout year.
Logged
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,691
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #269 on: June 27, 2019, 08:04:46 am »

Kyodo poll of PR section

LDP   28.8
KP      5.6
JRP     3.2
DPP    1.6
CDP    9.0
SDP    1.2
JCP     3.4

Back in June 2016 Kyodo poll had

LDP           27.2
KP              5.4
DP            11.7

Back in Jun 2013 Kyodo poll had

LDP            29.8
NKP             5.6
DPJ              7.1

So it seems on the PR section 2019 will be a repeat of 2016 which would be sort by bad news for CDP and DPP where it was expected that CDP + DPP PR vote should exceed 2016 DP PR vote by some margin.
Logged
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,691
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #270 on: June 27, 2019, 08:36:06 am »
« Edited: July 17, 2019, 06:59:05 am by jaichind »

Sankei Shimbun magazine Zakzak came out with their current projection

          District    PR      Total
LDP         37      18        55
KP            7        7        14
JRP          3         4          7
DPP          2         3         5
CDP        13       12       25
RS            1         1        2
SDP          0         1        1
JCP           2         4        6
OPPN        9                   9  (Center-Left Opposition backed independents)



Which would produce

LDP+           69
Center Left   42
Third Pole      7
JCP               6

And when added to the class of 2016 it gives us

LDP+          140
Center Left   79
Third Pole     14
JCP              12

With anti-Constitutional revision bloc (Center Left + JCP) at 37.14% of the seats.

By reverse engineering this projection the seats that this project calls that are at odds with CW are

1) CDP wins 青森(Aomori) over LDP when CW has this as very likely LDP
2) CDP wins 宮城(Miyagi) and OPPN wins 滋賀(Shiga) when CW has both of them lean LDP
3)  OPPN wins 愛媛(Ehime) when CW has it as tossup but slight lean LDP
4) CDP wins third seat in 兵庫(Hyōgo) over JRP when CW has as lean JRP for the third and last spot.  I happen to agree with this projection on this one.

Overall this projection as a somewhat anti-LDP lean.  But that is normal from a pro-LDP media outfit like Sankei Shimbun.  Most Japanese media projections tend to overcompensate for their house effect.
Logged
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,691
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #271 on: June 27, 2019, 08:40:55 am »

There will be at Party Leaders debate on July 4th.  It seems RS's 山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) is not invited.  I guess if RS starts to poll better then perhaps he will end up being invited.  I figure RS will perform on the PR slate roughly around the same as SDP.  So if SDP is invited then so should RS in my view.

Logged
Cape Verde
asianzzang
Jr. Member
**
Posts: 69
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #272 on: June 27, 2019, 04:24:23 pm »

The worst scenario for the Japanese left is that SDP and RS will each receive around 1.5% of the PR vote and none of the parties would win a PR seat.
Logged
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,691
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #273 on: June 28, 2019, 04:37:43 am »
« Edited: June 28, 2019, 06:40:54 am by jaichind »

Kyodo poll on support/opposition on Abe Constitutional revision 35.0/50.1

Breakdown by party support


LDP supporters are 61.8/25.3 is not a surprise.  The real number for support is most likely greater since many so called LDP supporters are KP supporters in disguise.
CDP DPP JCP hugh majorities against not a surprise.  To show how small the sample size of SDP has become SDP supporters are 0/100.

What is key to note here is KP support is 24.8/49.7 which is not surprise given KP's pacifist and dovish position on international policy.  But what is key here is that the KP vote will still vote LDP-KP despite their opposition to constitutional revision. This is why the 35.0/50.1 gap is not as much of a problem for Abe as it appears. 

JRP supporters seems to only lean constitutional revision  54.5/41.0 which plays into the narrative that part of the JRP are old centrist DPJ vote that is anti-LDP  while not Left wing are not necessary right wing either on the hawk-dove axis but has become disillusioned with DPJ and their successors (DP, DPP, CDP).
Logged
jaichind
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,691
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #274 on: June 28, 2019, 04:41:21 am »

The worst scenario for the Japanese left is that SDP and RS will each receive around 1.5% of the PR vote and none of the parties would win a PR seat.

I think SDP should be at least 1.7% so they will be very close to the threshold.  Actually high turnout at this stage hurt SDP.  RS vote despite ideological similarity are based on a marginal left protest vote that will need 山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) to turnout which does not actually hurt SDP's ability to get to around 1.8%
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 6 7 8 9 10 [11] 12 13 14 15 16 ... 23 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC