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  2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)
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Author Topic: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)  (Read 13511 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #50 on: September 29, 2018, 05:10:53 pm »

One of Okinawa's 2 main newspapers says that it is neck-to-neck with anti-base 玉城デニー (Tamaki Denī) slightly ahead.

Img


In Okinawan almost all mainstream media are anti-base so the impact of the media is mostly to work against the pro-LDP candidate.   
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jaichind
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« Reply #51 on: September 29, 2018, 06:17:32 pm »

The Okinawa base stalemate reminds me a lot of the HK Chief Execute Election stalemate. 

Current the HK Chief Executive is elected by an electoral college whose selection is by the PRC government.  The Democratic and Localist blocs demand the selection of the HK  Chief Execute is based on direct election by the HK population.  PRC says "Yes we can agree to that  but we get to vet the candidates ahead of time."  The Democratic and Localist blocs reject this proposal even as a interim  solution because they fear that if this solution is implemented the population support for their ideal solution would dissipate.     

The USA Futenma base in Okinawa is in Naha and right in the middle of a heavily populated area which is the cause of many problems and incidents. 
Img


The anti-base activist bloc wants the USA completely out of Okinawa.  The government of Japan and USA are offering to move the base to a remote location with no inhabitants.  The anti-base bloc reject this proposal even as an interim  solution because they fear that if this solution is implemented the population support for their ideal solution would dissipate.   

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jaichind
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« Reply #52 on: September 29, 2018, 06:33:00 pm »

In 2014 Okinawa elections around 700K voters voted, around 200K voted early.  This time 400K voted early.  No idea how many will vote on election day but most likely total turnout will still fall.
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jaichind
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« Reply #53 on: September 30, 2018, 05:40:53 am »

2014 Okinawa turnout was 64.13%.  The way in day voting is going turnout will most likely be around 61%-62%.
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jaichind
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« Reply #54 on: September 30, 2018, 06:02:32 am »

Voting ends.  Various media outlets using exit polls calls the race for anti-base 玉城デニー (Tamaki Denī) right away.  I guess the gap is not close.
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jaichind
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« Reply #55 on: September 30, 2018, 06:39:17 am »
« Edited: September 30, 2018, 06:57:38 am by jaichind »

Exit polls show that anti-base 玉城デニー (Tamaki Denī) with around 57% of the vote
Img


Exit poll result by party support
Img


Party support breakdown
LDP    33
CDP     6
DPP     1
KP       2
JCP     4
LP       2
SDP    5
None 41

None leans left all things equal.  

Pro-LDP 佐喜眞淳(Saki Masanobu) failed to win the entire LDP-KP vote.  Opposition to the base by some LDP-KP voters is the most likely reason.

Eyeball guess of vote by party support are

LDP:  anti-base 玉城デニー (Tamaki Denī) 17.90%  Pro-LDP 佐喜眞淳(Saki Masanobu) 80.17%
KP:  anti-base 玉城デニー (Tamaki Denī) 33.33%  Pro-LDP 佐喜眞淳(Saki Masanobu) 66.67%
None: anti-base 玉城デニー (Tamaki Denī) 69.78%  Pro-LDP 佐喜眞淳(Saki Masanobu) 28.89%

Eyeball guess of exit poll for overall vote
anti-base 玉城デニー (Tamaki Denī) 56.69%  Pro-LDP 佐喜眞淳(Saki Masanobu) 42.08%
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jaichind
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« Reply #56 on: September 30, 2018, 07:02:48 am »

With 0.6% of the vote counted it is

anti-base 玉城デニー (Tamaki Denī)   54.3% 
Pro-LDP 佐喜眞淳(Saki Masanobu)     44.4%

which pretty much match exit polls.
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jaichind
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« Reply #57 on: September 30, 2018, 07:37:51 am »

Now both NHK and the local RBC also calls the race for anti-base 玉城デニー (Tamaki Denī) as the pro-LDP village votes comes in and confirm the relative strength of anti-base 玉城デニー (Tamaki Denī).
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jaichind
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« Reply #58 on: September 30, 2018, 08:14:17 am »

With 46.1% of the vote counted it is

anti-base 玉城デニー (Tamaki Denī)   54.4% 
Pro-LDP 佐喜眞淳(Saki Masanobu)     45.3%
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jaichind
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« Reply #59 on: September 30, 2018, 08:38:10 am »

With 70.5% of the vote counted it is

anti-base 玉城デニー (Tamaki Denī)   54.3% 
Pro-LDP 佐喜眞淳(Saki Masanobu)     45.3%

Been pretty stable for a while.  Most likely final result will look something like this.
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jaichind
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« Reply #60 on: September 30, 2018, 08:45:20 am »

Pro-LDP 佐喜眞淳(Saki Masanobu) headquarters after the election was called by NHK.  The scale of defeat was quite a surprise to the LDP camp that expected a narrow defeat at worst.
Img
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jaichind
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« Reply #61 on: September 30, 2018, 08:54:38 am »

With 70.5% of the vote counted it is

anti-base 玉城デニー (Tamaki Denī)   54.1% 
Pro-LDP 佐喜眞淳(Saki Masanobu)     45.2%
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jaichind
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« Reply #62 on: September 30, 2018, 08:58:54 am »

With 91.9% of the vote counted it is

anti-base 玉城デニー (Tamaki Denī)   54.4% 
Pro-LDP 佐喜眞淳(Saki Masanobu)     45.3%
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jaichind
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« Reply #63 on: September 30, 2018, 09:13:18 am »

With 94.6% of the vote counted it is

anti-base 玉城デニー (Tamaki Denī)   55.3% 
Pro-LDP 佐喜眞淳(Saki Masanobu)     44.3%
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PSOL
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« Reply #64 on: September 30, 2018, 10:31:31 am »

So is the base the only major issue in Okinawa , this blowout seems to need more than that.
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jaichind
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« Reply #65 on: September 30, 2018, 12:42:31 pm »

All votes counted

anti-base 玉城デニー (Tamaki Denī)   55.1% 
Pro-LDP 佐喜眞淳(Saki Masanobu)     43.9%
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jaichind
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« Reply #66 on: September 30, 2018, 12:45:13 pm »

So is the base the only major issue in Okinawa , this blowout seems to need more than that.

At this stage it is mostly about the bases.  The majority Okinawa opinion is that: with all these bases if and when there is a USA-PRC war the PLA will hit  Okinawa  hard and there might even be a PLA ground invasion of Okinawa.  In which case it will be 1945 all over again. Why is it always us.  Why cannot Mainland Japan take some brunt of the risk.

Frankly I think the Okinawa electorate did not vote wisely.  Surely they must know it does not matter how they vote, given the current USA-PRC strategic standoff in East Asia there is no way these bases  are going anywhere.  You might as well vote LDP and get as much goodies and freebies out of it as possible.
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jaichind
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« Reply #67 on: September 30, 2018, 12:46:27 pm »

Anti-base 玉城デニー (Tamaki Denī) won around 397K votes which is more than any other politician in Okinawan electoral history.
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jaichind
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« Reply #68 on: October 04, 2018, 08:13:37 am »

Abe cabinet approval curve.  No bounce from Abe's victory in LDP Prez contest and the cabinet re-shuffle.   
Img


Historically cabinet re-shuffle does lead to a bounce in cabinet approval.  Abe timed his 2014 and 2017 mid-term election a couple of months after a cabinet reshuffle to take advantage of a temporary surge in cabinet approval rating.     
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jaichind
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« Reply #69 on: October 29, 2018, 06:35:18 am »

Abe cabinet approval curve slowly going into reverse
Img


LDP support falling a bit (Red) while CDP support is stabilizing (Blue)
Img


The main takeaway here is CDP is still the main opposition party to LDP.  In many ways that is good news for LDP.  Given the platform of the CDP they could energize anti-LDP forces to deny LDP-KP landslide victories but is unlikely to be able to garner enough support to deny the LDP-KP a majority.
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jaichind
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« Reply #70 on: November 09, 2018, 11:46:47 am »

Here we go again.  It seems ex-JRP founder and leader 橋下 徹(Hashimoto Tōru) who has pretty much disowned JRP after 2017 is getting back in the thick of things trying for yet another opposition realignment.  There are reports that Hashimoto is having all sorts of late night dinners with LP leader Ozawa, and ex-DP leader 前原誠司 (Maebaru Seiji) who is now with DPP.  前原誠司 (Maebaru Seiji)  was the last leader of DP who in 2017 pretty much disbanded DP to merge into HP in a losing effort to defeat LDP in the 2017 elections.

It seems Hashimoto  wants to push for a DPP-JRP-LP alliance to defeat LDP in the next elections.  Not clear how this possible bloc will work with the CDP-SDP-JCP bloc.  On thing is for sure.  If these two blocs form and not coordinate in the 1- member districts the LDP-KP will run away in 2019 in another landslide victory.
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jaichind
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« Reply #71 on: November 26, 2018, 04:00:45 am »

Conflict with ROK over the comfort women issue plus Abe working on a possible peace treaty is pushing up support Abe cabinet 

Img


 
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jaichind
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« Reply #72 on: December 07, 2018, 12:00:46 am »

茨城(Ibaraki) prefecture assembly election this Sunday.    Back in 2014 LDP won 45 and KP won 4 out of 63 seats.  The main opposition with 5 seats was a local rebel LDP faction led by a rebel LDP MP.  This LDP rebel MP seems to have, after the 2017 general elections, have formed an alliance with the Center-Left opposition.  This time around I suspect LDP will drop to something like 38 seats with DPP making a bunch of gains based de facto alliance with this local LDP rebel faction which I suspect will also make some gains.
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jaichind
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« Reply #73 on: December 07, 2018, 08:14:49 pm »
« Edited: December 08, 2018, 10:54:27 pm by jaichind »

2014 茨城(Ibaraki) prefecture assembly was

              Contest   Won   Vote share
LDP             52           45       56.73%
KP                4             4         4.47%
LDP rebels     5             1        5.49%
PP                5              5        5.80% (LDP splinter faction, main opposition to LDP)
JRP               5             0        4.47%
DPJ            13              5       13.31%
SDP             1              0         0.99%
Minor Left    4              0         2.56%
JCP              4             3         5.81%

I think this time with PP DPP CDP de facto alliance it will be
LDP         40
KP            4
LDP rebel  2
PP            6
DPP          7
CDP          2
JCP           2

where both LDP and JCP gets squeezed by the PP-DPP-CDP alliance
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jaichind
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« Reply #74 on: December 09, 2018, 09:42:29 am »
« Edited: December 09, 2018, 05:30:03 pm by jaichind »

Counting done for 茨城(Ibaraki) prefecture assembly.  Turnout was very low and as a result it was a big victory for the Greater LDP bloc even though the big winner are actually LDP rebels.  On paper the results are

LDP  34
KP     4
CDP   1
DPP   4
JCP    2
Ind. 17
Img


If you group the Independent winners into the right parties or blocs you really get

LDP           40
KP              4
LDP rebels  5
PP              5  (LDP rebel faction now aligned with opposition)
DPP           5
CDP           1
JCP            2

Prelim vote share count are
  
              Contest Win   Vote share
LDP           49       40       51.99%
KP              4         4         7.51%
LDP rebels   8         5       11.64%
JRP             1         0        0.45%
PP              6         5         5.77%
DPP          11         5       12.06%
CDP            2         1        3.16%
JCP             8         2        7.11%

With turnout low JCP and KP vote share rises.  JCP running in more districts clearly hurt the PP-DPP-DCP alliance.   It seems the 2014 JRP vote share mostly went over to LDP rebels.  Low turnout also means DPP and CDP did worse than expected.
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