2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)

[jaichind]

Ashai poll of party support of top two parties in Dec of the year before Upper House elections

2000 LDP 30 DPJ 11  -> 2001 Upper House Landslide LDP victory
2003 LDP 31 DPJ 24  -> 2004 Upper House LDP-DPJ draw
2006 LDP 36 DPJ 14  -> 2007 Upper House LDP defeat after a horrible 2007 for LDP under Abe
2009 DPJ 42 LDP 18  -> 2010 Upper House LDP-DPJ draw after a very bad 2010 for DPJ
2012 LDP 36 DPJ 9    -> 2013 Upper House Landslide LDP victory
2015 LDP 33 DPJ 8    -> 2016 Upper House LDP victory which was contained by Opposition-JCP alliance
2018 LDP 35 CDP 8   -> 2019 Seems LDP victory whose scale is determined by level of opposition unity

[jaichind]

In Japanese local elections there are a lot of Independence candidates most of which are pro-LDP.  In Japanese media they are usually referred to as Pan-LDP or sometimes Pan-Conservative.   I tend to call them Ind(LDP) or LDP rebel based on the situation.  It would be useful to go over the situations where a pro-LDP politician will run as an independent and which types I would use which terminology (Ind(LDP) or LDP rebel.)

All things equal I will use the 1-member district situation to go over the different configurations but will use 2- member districts where it has to be used to demonstrate some of these configurations

1- member distirct

a) The LDP candidate has cross partisan appeal and figures he has a better of chance of winning if he runs as an independent to pull in opposition votes.  Often LDP would recommend this candidate. So the ballot would be

Ind(LDP) (recommended by LDP)
Opposition candidate

b) The LDP candidate has been hit with serious scandal so he had to resign from LDP but still want to run to prove that he is innocent.   The LDP will not recommend this candidate but will de facto back him.  So the ballot would be

Ind(LDP)
Opposition candidate

c) Two LDP candidate from two different faction emerge to want to run in a very strong LDP district.  The LDP local chapter could not decided so allows both to run and lets the voters decided.  So the ballot would be

Ind(LDP)
Ind(LDP)

d) Same as c) but with an opposition candidate.  This is a lot more dangerous for the LDP as the split of the LDP vote could let in the opposition.  More often than not the battle between two LDP factions pull in votes from the opposition candidate who ends up in 3rd place a lot of times.  The ballot would be

Ind(LDP)
Ind(LDP)
Opposition candidate

e) LDP has decided to nominate a candidate but another LDP candidate from a rival faction emerge who then runs in a very strong LDP district.  In this situation I would call the pro-LDP independent a LDP rebel. The ballot would be

LDP
LDP rebel

f) Same as e) but with an opposition candidate.  Again this gets more dangerous for LDP but like d) in practical terms this tend to marginalize the opposition candidate.  The ballot would be

LDP
LDP rebel
Opposition candidate.


Now we have some conflagration with 2- member districts.

a) LDP has nominated a candidate but another LDP candidate emerged from a rival faction wants to run to win the second seat.  The LDP is fine with this but does not nominate him since it would be hard for the LDP to win both seats and wants to avoid the embarrassment of losing so LDP acquiesce the second candidate but does not formally nominate him. So the ballot would be

LDP
Ind(LDP)
Opposition candidate
JCP (sometimes)

b) Same as a) but two additional LDP candidates from rival factions emerge since it is a very strong LDP district.   Here the LDP will let the voters decided which of the two extra LDP candidates deserve to win. The ballot would be

LDP
Ind(LDP)
Ind(LDP)
Opposition candidate
JCP (sometimes)

c) LDP actually have 2 candidates but a third LDP candidate emerges to run which I would label as LDP rebel.  The ballot would be

LDP
LDP
LDP rebel
Opposition candidate
JCP (sometimes)

[jaichind]

2013 and 2016 Japan Upper House election results and how they map the the current makeup of the Upper House today.

2013 Upper House elections.  YP has disappeared since 2013, JRP has split, DPJ has become DP and then split into CDP and DPP.

OPPN is Center-Left opposition Independents (most likely anti-Constitutional revision) and TP is Third Pole or Center-Right opposition independents (most likely pro-Constitutional revision).  

               2013     YP    JRP split   DPJ split    Other       Current
District
LDP          47       +1                                    +1            49
DPJ          10                               -10          
CDP                                             +4                             4
KP             4                                                                  4
JCP            3                                                                 3
JRP            2                                                                 2
DPP                                            +5                              5
YP             4       -4                            
HP                     +2                                                       2
LP             0                                                +1              1
SDP          0                                                                  0
OPPN        2                                +1            -2               1
TP                    +1                                                        1
Total       73                                                                 73

               2013     YP    JRP split   DPJ split    Other       Current
PR
LDP        18         +2     +1                                            21
DPJ          7                                   -7
CDP                    +1                      +3                            4
KP           7                                                                   7
JCP          5                                                                   5
JRP          6                  -3                                              3
DPP                                             +4                             4
YP           4         -4
HP                              +1                                             1
LP           0                                                                   0
SDP        1                                                                   1
OPPN                          +1                                             1
TP                     +1                                                      1
Total    48                                                                  48

So breakdown by party for the 2013 class is
LDP        70
CDP         8
KP          11
JCP          8
JRP          5
DPP         9
HP           3
LP            1
SDP         1
OPPN       3
TP            2

And if you group them by
LDP-KP          81
Center-Left    22
Third pole      10
JCP                8

Center-Left-JCP has 24.8% of the seats, well below the 1/3 threshold to block LDP-KP-Third Pole attempts to change the Constitution.  


Now lets look at 2016 class.  Since 2016 DP has broken up into CDP and DPP

               2016     DP split    Other       Current
District
LDP           37                                        37
DP            22          -22
CDP                       +10                         10
KP              7                                          7
JCP            1                                          1
JRP            3                                          3
DPP                      +10                          10
HP                                                         0
LP              2                                          2
SDP            0                                         0
OPPN          1         +2                            3
TP              0                                         0
Total         73                                        73

               2016     DP split    Other       Current
PR        
LDP          19           +1                         20
DP            11          -11                
CDP                        +6                          6
KP             7                                         7
JCP            5                                         5
JRP            4                        -1              3
DPP                       +4                           4
HP                                                        0
LP             1                                          1
SDP           1                                         1
OPPN                                                    0
TP                                      +1              1
Total        48                                       48

So breakdown by party for the 2016 class is
LDP        57
CDP       16
KP          14
JCP          6
JRP          6
DPP       14
HP           0
LP            3
SDP         1
OPPN       3
TP            1

And if you group them by
LDP-KP          71
Center-Left    37
Third pole       7
JCP                6

Center-Left-JCP has 37.2% of the seats, above the 1/3 threshold to block LDP-KP-Third Pole attempts to change the Constitution.  


So if you add the 2013 and 2016 classes you get
LDP      127
CDP       24
KP          25
JCP        14
JRP        11
DPP       23
HP           3
LP            4
SDP         2
OPPN       6
TP            3

And if you group them by
LDP-KP        152
Center-Left    59
Third pole     17
JCP              14

Center-Left-JCP has 30.2% of the seats, below the 1/3 threshold to block LDP-KP-Third Pole attempts to change the Constitution.   This is what the window Abe now has to get Constitutional revision passed before the July 2019 Upper House elections.


As for the 2019 Upper House elections my projection (assuming that CDP DPP LP SDP and JCP create the right alliances in places that count) is currently
        
           District     PR     Total
LDP        39         18       57
CDP       12          13      25
KP          7            7       14
JCP         2            4        6
JRP         1            2        3
DPP        7            3      10
HP          1            1        2
LP          2            1        3
SDP       0             1        1
OPPN      3                      3
TP          0                      0
Total      74          50     124

And if you group them by
LDP-KP          71
Center-Left    42
Third pole       5
JCP                6

Center-Left-JCP has 38.1% of the seats, above the 1/3 threshold to block LDP-KP-Third Pole attempts to change the Constitution.


And if you add this group to the 2016 class you get
LDP      114
CDP       41
KP         28
JCP        12
JRP         9
DPP       24
HP           2
LP           6
SDP         2
OPPN       6
TP           1

And if you group them by
LDP-KP        142
Center-Left    79
Third pole     12
JCP              12

Center-Left-JCP has 37.1% of the seats, above the 1/3 threshold to block LDP-KP-Third Pole attempts to change the Constitution.  

Most other projections seem similar with the BIG IF that Center-Left Opposition and JCP forms joint candidates in the marginal 1- member districts. This is why Abe's window of Constitutional reform might be closing.  He has to get something done before July.

[jaichind]

Pro-LDP Sankei Shimbun(産経) just came out with an early survey of the 2019 Upper House elections.  These early surveys always underestimate LDP historically so they should be seen as an floor for LDP performance.  

It was hard to link the top line seat projections with the prefecture based projections so I had to assume the overall projection was a probabilistic projection and not the sum of medium guesses.  

Overall it came out with

LDP    55
CDP    21  
KP      13
JCP     10
DPP      9
JRP      4
OPPN  10 (opposition joint candidates)
Other   2

Reading over its vague descriptions on a prefecture by prefecture basis I was able to surmise a reasonable detailed version of the projection although it is not rigorous.

Party       District      PR        Total              Implied PR vote share
LDP            37          18          55                         33.9%
CDP             8          13          21                         24.5%
KP               7            6          13                         11.3%
JCP              5            5          10                          9.4%
DPP             5            4            9                          7.5%
JRP              1           3            4                           5.7%
SDP             0           1             1                          1.9%
LP               1            0            1                           1.6%
HP              0            0            0                           1.6%
OPPN        10                         10
Total          74          50         124  

Fairly good result for JCP (especially in district seats) and DCP and poor result for KP and somewhat poor result for LDP.   Again, most polls this early tend to underestimate LDP and Third Pole turnout so these numbers should be seen as a floor for LDP-KP which is not too bad.

[jaichind]

Japan's largest election website go2senkyo.com did a poll for the April Local elections

Party support
LDP       34.6
KP          5.0
JRP         1.4
HP          1.0
DPP        1.2
CDP      18.5
LP          0.5
SDP       1.5
JCP        7.4


Likely vote in April local elections
LDP       33.7
KP          5.7
JRP         3.2
HP          0.5
DPP        1.5
CDP      20.8
LP          0.8
SDP       2.5
JCP        9.9


There numbers looks fairly good for CDP.  Overall where KP runs candidates KP will perform way better than this (13%-15%) as KP takes local elections more seriously than national elections and mostly back LDP candidates where KP is not running.  Most independents will end up voting LDP as the LDP candidates are the ones with real local connections and organizational strength.  Still for 20.8% to plan to vote CDP is a fairly strong signal that CDP is pretty much THE main opposition party to LDP nationally.  

[jaichind]

Something I missed from last Nov.  It seems that what is left of Far Right Hawk PJK merged back into LDP when its last MP (who quit LDP in 2012 to join JRP before joining JRP splinter FPG which then became PJK) dissolved the party and joined the LDP.  Of course part of the reason was that this last PJK MP 中野 正志(Nakano Masashi) who was elected in the 2013 Upper House elections on the JRP PR slate is up for re-election in 2019 and had no prospect of being re-elected in PJK.  By joining LDP there is a chance he might be allowed to run on the LDP PR slate.  

What remained of the PJK MPs all joined HP back in 2017 when PJK leader 中山 恭子(Nakayama Kyōko) and her husband joined HP.  She is in HP right now and is also up for re-election in 2019 Upper House election will most likely try to run for re-election on the HP PR slate with a hope that HP could get more than 1.8% of the PR vote for her to be re-elected.

So now HP is really the last super-hawk Far Right Third Pole party.  JRP is still count as Third Pole is is now mostly reduced to a Osaka based regional party.

[jaichind]

Sorry if you've mentioned this, but how strong is the CDP at the local levels at the moment? Did most municipal and prefecture DP politicians stick with DP at the time of the schism or has the CDP attracted much of the old left wing of the DP?

What are the major left wing cities in Japan? I know Nagoya is pretty left wing?

I would say most of the old DPJ infrastructure at the local level split along lines that align with the relative strength of CDP vs DPP.  So in places like 北海道(Hokkaido), 東京(Tokyo), and 埼玉(Saitama) most of the old DPJ grassroots went over to CDP.  But in the rural Northeast and South they mostly went with DPP.   An CDP will have strength in urban areas and DPP will be stronger in rural areas.
 This is why DPP will most likely over-perform polls in terms of results and CDP will under-perform since in many rural districts DPP will be the only non-JCP opposition in town and CDP voters will just have to vote DPP.

As for what cities lean Left, I would say

1) Most cities in 北海道(Hokkaido)
2) 盛岡市(Morioka), capital of  岩手(Iwate)
3) 仙台市((Sendai), capital of 宮城(Miyagi)
4) 福島市(Fukushima city), capital of 福島(Fukushima)
5) Most cities in 埼玉(Saitama)
6) 船橋市(Funabashi) and 市川市(Ichikawa) in 千葉(Chiba)
7) 横浜市(Yokohama), capital of  神奈川(Kanagawa)
8 ) The urban parts of 東京(Tokyo)
9) 新潟市(Niigata city) capital of 新潟(Niigata)
10) 長野市(Nagano City) capital of 長野(Nagano) where JCP is fairly strong
11) 名古屋市(Nagoya) capital of 愛知(Aichi)
12) 四日市市(Yokkaichi) in 三重(Mie)
13) Urban parts of 京都(Kyoto) where JCP is fairly strong
14) Urban parts of 大阪(Osaka) used to be very Left have have more turned to a regional populist Right JRP
15) 神戸市(Kobe) capital of 兵庫(Hyōgo) used to be very left but a good chunk of that support has turned to the regional populist Right JRP
16) 高知市(Kōchi city) capital of 高知(Kōchi) where JCP is fairly strong
17) 大分市(Ōita city) capital of 大分(Ōita) where SDP is fairly strong
18) Urban parts of 沖縄(Okinawa) which is more about the USA base issue

Note that in some of these areas like 大阪(Osaka), 名古屋市(Nagoya), 神戸市(Kobe), 東京(Tokyo) the populist Right also has done well in the past so some of these Leftist impulses might be more about opposition to the existing Establishment of Clientelism politics of the LDP.

[jaichind]

To get a sense on how the CDP and DPP split is working out at the local level with respect to the old DPJ local base I looked at one prefecture, 滋賀(Shiga), where CDP and HP PR vote share were at par in 2017 and has a history of strong local opposition.   I looked at the candidates for the 2019 prefecture elections, looked at those numbers by breaking down the election districts by rural and urban areas and projected what I expect to be the election result.  

Historically 滋賀(Shiga) has a local branch of DPJ called チームしが or Team Shiga(TS).  This is a local party that was formed by a its anti-LDP ex-governor.   DPJ and TS historically worked hand in hand to take on LDP with DPJ candidates sometimes running as TS candidates.  There is a separate small opposition bloc called 良知会 or Rjo-kai Club (RKC) that works outside of TS.

In 2015 the election result were

Urban districts        
           Candidates   Winners
LDP           20             15
KP              2               2
DPJ-TS      11               8
RKC            2               2
JCP             6               3


Rural districts
           Candidates   Winners
LDP           10              6
DPJ-TS        7               7
RKC            1               1


Total
           Candidates   Winners
LDP           30             21
KP              2               2
DPJ-TS      18             15
RKC            3               3
JCP             6               3

With the LDP doing worse in rural areas due to a large number of 2 member districts where it is split 1-1 between and LDP-Opposition whereas in urban areas the larger LDP-KP base has a impact in larger sized districts where seat distribution is more PR like.


For 2019 TS will work hand in hand with DPP while CDP will run separately with some of the old DPJ candidates going over to CDP.  The split has as clear urban-rural bias.


My 2019 projected result

Urban districts        
           Candidates   Winners
LDP           19             15
KP              2               2
DPP-TS        6              6
CDP            5               5
RKC            1               0
JCP             7               2


Rural districts
           Candidates   Winners
LDP             9              7
DPP-TS        6               6
CDP            1               1
RKC            1               0


Total
           Candidates   Winners
LDP           28             22
KP              2               2
DPP-TS      12             12
CDP            6               6
RKC            2               0
JCP             7               2

One of the incumbent RKC MLAs left the prefecture assembly since 2015 to run for mayor of one the cities in the prefecture.   Better nomination strategy by LDP is able to gain it an extra seat relative to 2015.   The DPJ split work where in urban area it is split down the middle between CDP and DPP while in rural areas it is mostly go to DPP.  In urban areas CDP squeezed out RKC and JCP while in rural areas better LDP nomination strategy I expect to kill off the last RKC MLA.

So looking at this one prefecture  滋賀(Shiga) seems to match my main narrative

1) All things equal DPP will get a greater set of the DPJ organization than its party support would otherwise indicate.
2) DPP will be stronger and rural areas and will inherit a majority of the old DPJ base there
3) CDP will be stronger in urban areas and tend to get a restively greater share of the old DPJ base.
4) Overall the relative balance of power between LDP-KP and opposition will be mostly undisturbed but it really depends on where the CDP surge will be at the expense of (other opposition support of LDP-KP.)

[jaichind]

There are rumors that Abe is looking to dissolve the Lower House later in the Spring in order to have a double election (both Lower and Upper House election at the same time) in July.  The calculation would be that the opposition seems to be getting ready for an Upper House election but are totally unprepared in the Lower House seats (opposition-JCP common candidates talks.)  A election at the same time woulds stretch Opposition-JCP resources, energy and coordination so the LDP-KP could sweep in to another 2/3 majority in the Lower house and do well enough in the Upper House to retain an 2/3 Constitutional Revisionist majority.

Similar rumors were circulating in the run up to the 2016 Upper House elections.  In that case Abe choose to go with a delay of consumption tax increase as his October surprise.   This time Abe seems to be looking for another X-factor to help him get a landslide victory.  It could be the 2014 Lower House election trick (surprise snap election while the Opposition is not prepared.)

[jaichind]

There was a shock prefecture poll  in 高知(Kōchi) which showed Abe Cabinet approval down to 26%



But  political blogger showed a 2017 election campaign Abe Cabinet approval poll which had results per prefecture showing that in 高知(Kōchi) approval rating was in the low 30s but with Abe going on to have a pretty decisive win in the election so this most recent poll does not mean that much

[jaichind]

As the hit Abe cabinet approval rating took due to new Immigration Law wears off Abe Cabinet approval curve recovers


But still has it below the levels it has seen in the 2013 and 2016 Upper House elections and somewhat below the levels before the 2014 and 2017 Lower House elections

[jaichind]

Latest Ashai poll asks for vote for PR in Upper House elections which has

Abe Cabinet approval/disapproval   43(+3)/38(-3)

PR vote for 2019 Upper House elections

LDP     41
KP        5
HP        1
JRP       4
DPP      2
LP        2
CDP    15
SP       1
JCP      5

When asked if the ruling bloc should maintain a 2/3 majority favor/oppose is 39/39

When asked if CDP DPP and other opposition parties (which I assume does not include JCP) should unite to fight LDP-KP as an alliance favor/oppose is 50/36

Ashai points out that in Jan 2016 it polled LDP PR vote at 39 and DPJ at 14 while in the 2016 Upper House elections it ended up being LDP 39 and DP 21 (DPJ and JIP merging later in 2016 before the elections) 


I think the main difference between now and 2016 is the polled share of "none" is lower this time around.

[jaichind]

Latest developments on opposition realignment

1) A large bloc of ex-DP and ex-HP MPs in the lower house have joined CDP.  The faction known as League of Independents have gone from 16 to 7 as 9 MPs will now caucus with CDP.  The remaining 7 will be led by ex-PM 野田 佳彦(Noda Yoshihiko) who was from the Center-Right wing of DPJ.  The main reason what remains did not join CDP has to do with ideological differences plus bad memories of the Noda role as PM in pushing through consumption tax  increase working with LDP in 2012 which led to the 2012 landslide defeat of DPJ.  Noda's bloc most likely will be de facto aligned with DPP.  There are another 13 Lower House MPs most of whom have DPJ and then HP background who are mostly non-aligned but should be seen as being pro-DPP but some of which might more be seen as pro-Third Pole.   

2) It seems that LP will merge into DPP.  Most likely Ozawa views as unlikely that LP will cross the 2% threshold in the upcoming Upper House elections to get LP PR seats.  Ozawa, it seems, will be given the role of General Secretary in DPP as a result of the merger which is a better role for him anyway.  Ozawa was always better as a backroom operator then the face of a party to fetch votes.   His job should be on candidate selection and fundraising.   LP Upper House MP in Tokyo and radical anti-nuclear activist 山本 太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) will most likely not join DPP but end up as an independent again or aligning with SDP.

[jaichind]

One of the key reasons, it seems, that DPP is working toward merging with LP has to do with the relative size of DPP vs CDP in the Upper House.  Right now CDP has 25 MP in the Upper House while DPP has 23.  LP has 4 members.  Even if one of the LP Upper House MPs which is from Tokyo might become and independent due to disagreements with DPP over nuclear policy, an addition of 3 MPs would push DPP above CDP in the Upper House.  This is key in terms of designation of Main Opposition Party in the Upper House (sort of like Leader of Opposition in the Westminster system.)   

Of course it is clear that given the strength of CDP in the PR slate in the 2019 Upper House elections, CDP is for sure going to be bigger than DPP no matter what after the 2019 elections.  The main reasons DPP is doing this other than to get them hands on the funds that Ozawa commands, is to increase their leverage with CDP in terms of seat sharing talks for the Upper House elections.

With Ozawa most likely in the DPP camp the appeal of the DPP and CDP are now clear.

DPP - A centrist version of LDP.  if you like the down to earth get things done style of LDP politics but want a more Centrist slate of policies: Vote DPP
CDP - Yes, a more center-Left party but the key difference would be: If you reject LDP's style of politics and want politics to be about principles and ideals then vote CDP
JCP - Social Democratic alternative.  If you utterly reject LDP both in terms of style of politics and also want a Left slate of politics: Vote JCP

CDP is a real threat to JCP as part of the JCP base is about political ideals than real Leftism.  Of course it seems the CDP-JCP battle to mobilize votes for itself seems to give a chance to drive up turnout this segment of the electorate to the harm of LDP KP and DPP in the upcoming election.

It seems that CDP and JCP have no issues working together.  Same with CDP and DPP. It is DPP-JCP talks for alliance in single member seats that will be tough.

[jaichind]

There will be two Lower House by-elections in April which will test opposition unity. 

The LDP incumbent in 大阪(Osaka) 12th District passed away.  The 2009 2012 2014 and 2017 results for this district are

2009 (DPJ landslide year)
DPJ  53.2%
LDP  36.1% (incumbent)
JCP   8.5%
HRP   2.2%

2012 (LDP comeback based on DPJ split and rise of JRP)
LDP   39.9% (2009 incumbent came back to win his old seat)
YP     25.8% (backed by JRP)
DPJ   25.5% (2009 DPJ winner defeated)
JCP    8.8%

2014 (LDP landslide again)
LDP   40.0%
DPJ   25.2% (2009 DPJ winner runs again)
JIP    24.2%
JCP   10.6%

2017 (LDP wins again) (DPJ candidate from 2009 2012 2014 joins HP who agreed to back JRP so he ran on the HP PR slate but the LDP incumbent won anyway)
LDP   45.0%
JRP    40.6%
JCP    14.4%

2017 PR vote
LDP   27.0%   
KP     19.4%            
JRP   28.05%   
HP     5.05%   
CDP  10.34%   
SDP    0.53%   
JCP    9.29%
HRP   0.32%

2017 district PR vote analysis showed that CDP PR voters split their vote between JCP and JRP while some of the JRP HP PR vote went LDP.

This time around the old DPJ candidate of 2009 2012 and 2014 who became an independent after HP mostly dissolved wants to run as the common opposition candidate.  Due to his history of being in HP the JCP is not willing to back him and pushing for a separate CDP-JCP common candidate.  Given the size of the LDP-KP and JRP base here the only chance for the non-JRP Opposition is CDP DPP JCP all united around a non-JCP candidate to try become a lighting rod of anti-LDP and anti-JRP votes.     At this time it does not seem likely and LDP should win this one.


The other by-election is 沖縄(Okinawa) 3rd district where the LP incumbent successful ran for governor late last year.   The 2009 2012 2014 and 2017 results for this district are

2009 (DPJ landslide year)
DPJ         48.7%
LDP         23.7%
SDP         13.6%
LDP rebel 13.1%
HRP          0.9%

2012 (LDP national landslide due to DPJ split and rise of JRP)
LDP      43.6%
PLP      36.1% (won on PR slate, was DPJ incumbant but switched to PLP in 2012)
JRP        7.9%
JCP        6.5%
DPJ        4.7%
HRP       1.2%

2014 (LDP wins again, Okinawa had opposition-JCP alliance)
PLP       60.0% (came back to win)
LDP      40.0% (won on PR slate)

2017 (LDP wins again, Okinawa had opposition-JCP alliance)
Ind(LP)  57.9% (who then ran for governor in 2018 and won)
LDP       40.3%
HRP       1.8%

2017 PR
LDP    23.5%   
KP      18.9%         
HRP     1.3%   
JRP      4.4%   
HP     13.5%   
CDP   15.5%   
SDP   13.2%   
JCP     9.7%

2017 district-PR vote share analysis showed that LDP only retained the most of the LDP-KP PR vote and that the JRP and HP PR vote mostly went to the opposition due to the base issue while a small part of the KP PR vote mostly likely also defected over the base issue.

This time around the popular LP incumbent will not be on the ballot and if the 2017 JRP and 2017 HP PR vote defect to LDP then the opposition could lose the election.  I guess the key here is the opposition has to come up with a common candidate and that the candidate must ensure the salience of the base issue as a way to get a fairly large and diverse coalition holds together to beat LDP.

[jaichind]

Asahi monthly poll show the age gap for Abe Cabinet approval

Overall it is 43/38 for Jan 2019
 

Age 20-29 it is 48/27 for Jan 2019


Age 60-69 it is 33/51 for Jan 2019

 
This pattern has been around for several years now.  The youth back LDP-KP while ages 50-69 tends to lean opposition with middle age and 70+ voters tend to be in the middle

[jaichind]

山梨(Yamanashi) governor election this sunday will be neck-to-neck.

It will be the CDP-DPP backed incumbent vs LDP backed candidate vs ex-YP (but was DPJ background) vs JCP

Back in 2015 the LDP backed the current incumbent(who has a DPJ background) because the strongest LDP candidate was a long time LDP rebel and the local LDP branch rather back a pro-DPJ candidate rather than reconcile with this LDP rebel.

This time the LDP rebel in question 長崎 幸太郎(Nagasaki Kōtarō) who beat the official candidate as an MP for couple of cycles finally reconciled with the LDP in 2017 but lost his seat in the 2017 election.  So this time the LDP will back him as the candidate to try to take down the pro-Opposition governor. 

It seems this race will be neck-to-neck between LDP and CDP-DPP and from which voting base the ex-YP candidate will cut into (LDP voters or center-left opposition voters)  will determine the winner.

[jaichind]

山梨(Yamanashi) governor election seems to have went LDP's way over the CDP-DPP incumbent

Exit poll seems to have the LDP candidate winning around 50% of the vote in a 4 way race
 

Main reasons of victory (according to NHK breakdown)
Is that LDP supporters formed 46% of the voters while KP formed 3% of the voters most of which went to the LDP candidate.  CDP formed 11% of the voters, DPP 3% and JCP 3%.  The a good part of the critical independent bloc(30%) also voted for the LDP candidate.

[jaichind]

With 46% of the vote counted for the 山梨(Yamanashi) governor election  it is

LDP           49.3%
CDP-DPP    41.6% (incumbant)
ex-YP          4.8% (have DPJ background as well)
JCP             4.4%

Usually for governor races the incumbent have a large advantage.  For LDP to take out this pro-opposition incumbent is a great coup and another feather in the cap of Abe.  This is pretty negative news for the opposition for the upcoming Upper House elections as  山梨(Yamanashi)  is an example a rural 1- member swing district the opposition has to win in order to stop a LDP landslide.

[jaichind]

With 78% of the vote counted for the 山梨(Yamanashi) governor election  it is

LDP-KP       50.3%
CDP-DPP    42.5% (incumbant)
ex-YP          3.8% (have DPJ background as well)
JCP             3.4%

It seems the main battle now is will LDP still be above 50% ?

[jaichind]

With 89% of the vote counted for the 山梨(Yamanashi) governor election  it is

LDP-KP       50.2%
CDP-DPP    42.7% (incumbant)
JCP             3.6%
ex-YP          3.6 (have DPJ background as well)

[jaichind]

All votes counted for the 山梨(Yamanashi) governor election  it is

LDP-KP       49.7%
CDP-DPP    41.8% (incumbent)
ex-YP          4.3% (have DPJ background as well)
JCP             4.1%

It seems the key aspect of this race was that the LDP-KP candidate was able to consolidate all the pro-LDP forces.  The key factor here is the ex-YP candidate was reduced to 4.3%.  It seems that this 4.3% is almost all anti-LDP voters and all the pro-LDP voters went over to the LDP-KP winner.  This same ex-YP candidate ran in the Upper House election for 山梨(Yamanashi) in both 2013 and 2016 with the results being

2013
LDP          36.1%
pro-DPJ    19.2%
pro-DPJ    15.7%
YP            14.9% (old DPJ incumbent but went over to YP)
JCP            9.1%


While in 2016 the DP and JCP formed an alliance with the JCP backed the DP candidate but the old DPJ incumbent from the 2013 election cycle that went over to YP ran again

2016
DP              43.0%
LDP           37.8%
ex-YP        16.7%
HRP            2.5%

It seems clear that this ex-YP candidate pulled in in 2013 and 2016 15.7% and 16.7% of the vote a good part of seems to be pro-LDP voters.  This time around that entire bloc of voters did not vote for this ex-YP candidate and went back to the LDP leading to the LDP unexpectedly large victory.

[jaichind]

Back to topic of opposition unity.  With DPP and LP in talks with a merger and it seems in response CDP and SDP are in talks to from a common caucus and possible merger.

[jaichind]

Nikkei poll on PR section of 2019 Upper House elections

LDP  41%
CDP  12%
CDP   1%
KP     5%
JCP    4%
JRP    2%
LP     1%
SDP  1%
HP    0%


Note that a similar poll in May 2016 had LDP at 44% and DP at 12% and the PR vote ended up LDP 36% and DP 21%.  The way I would read this poll is to add LDP+KP support and add a couple of percentages to be the LDP-KP PR support rate.  Lots of KP PR voters claim to pollsters that they are LDP supporters. 

[jaichind]

Fuji Evening Times magazine came out with their projection for 2019 Upper House elections.  It is pretty negative for LDP but usually at this time of the year these projections are pretty bad for LDP anyway.  Most of it is about the media company needing to generate sales of their magazine so a "shocking" projection are more likely to generate sales.  So these projections should be seen as some sort of floor of LDP performance.



         District    PR    Total    Implied PR vote
LDP      32        17      49              32.0%
KP         7          7       14             13.5%
CDP      15        15      30             28.5%
DPP       5          3        8               6.0%
JCP        2          5       7                9.5%
HP         1          0        1               1.5%
SDP       0          0        0               1.5%
LP          1          0        1               1.5%
OPPN      9                   9           (Opposition joint candidates)

Which gets LDP-KP to 63 seats a bare majority out of 124 seats up for grabs.   Of course one has to read this as the worst worst possible result for LDP.

The various media outlets will come out with these negative projection for LDP to generate sales and then a couple weeks before the election come out with "real" projections that is much more favorable to LDP and much more likely to be accurate.

Same magazine also did a project for Lower House and came up with LDP losing around 55 seats and CDP gaining 70 seats.