2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st) (user search)
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Author Topic: 2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)  (Read 47783 times)
jaichind
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Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« on: August 06, 2018, 08:31:55 PM »
« edited: June 04, 2019, 05:37:38 PM by jaichind »

2019 will see Unified Local elections of April 2019 where a large majority of prefecture and other local elections will take place (most likely over 2 days.)  Then in July there will be Upper House elections where Abe will lead LDP to another victory.  Most likely the pro-Constitutional revision bloc (LDP-KP plus Third Pole (JRP and rump HP)) will most likely barely lose their 2/3 majority.   So Abe's window to get Constitutional revision might close on him if he does not act fast.
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #1 on: August 06, 2018, 09:14:08 PM »
« Edited: August 07, 2018, 07:09:49 AM by jaichind »

My prelim projection of 2019 Upper House elections.

CDP is the de facto Left wing DP splinter party and DPP is the de facto Right wing DP splinter party.  It seems that JCP will be willing to work with CDP and SDP and DPP is willing to work with CDP but it is not clear DPP and JCP are willing to work together.

 I assume that somehow CDP DPP SDP LP and JCP forms alliances in the 1- member districts to back the most winnable candidate.  I also assume some sort of coordination between JCP and other Center Left opposition parties in multi-member seats as well.    The 2016 anti-TPP wave of Northern Japan dissipates giving the LDP back some 1- member districts in Northern Japan.
 
埼玉(Saitama) is now a 4 member district vs 3 in 2016 and 2 extra PR seats got added to 50 from 48 in 2016.

                                               Prediction
北海道Hokkaido         3              LDP CDP CDP
青森   Aomori             1             LDP                                  
岩手   Iwate               1             LP      
宮城   Miyagi               1            LDP      
秋田   Akita                1             LDP                                  
山形   Yamagata         1             OPPN (opposition joint candidate)
福島   Fukushima       1             LDP                            
茨城   Ibaraki             2             LDP DPP                          
栃木   Tochigi             1             LDP                                  
群馬   Gunma            1              LDP                                  
埼玉   Saitama           4             LDP CDP KP JCP                    
千葉   Chiba               3             LDP DPP LDP                    
神奈川Kanagawa       4               LDP KP CDP HP            
山梨   Yamanashi       1             CDP          
東京   Tokyo              6             LDP CDP KP JCP LP LDP    
新潟   Niigata             1             CDP                    
富山   Toyama            1             LDP                                  
石川   Ishikawa           1             LDP                                  
福井   Fukui                1             LDP                                  
長野   Nagano             1             DPP                            
岐阜   Gifu                  1             LDP                                  
静岡   Shizuoka           2             LDP DPP                          
愛知   Aichi                 4             LDP CDP KP DPP                
三重   Mie                   1             OPPN (Opposition joint candidate - most likely CDP background)  
滋賀   Shiga                1             LDP      
京都   Kyoto                2             LDP CDP  
大阪   Osaka               4             LDP ORA KP CDP            
兵庫   Hyōgo               3             LDP KP CDP
奈良   Nara                 1             LDP                                  
和歌山Wakayama        1             LDP                                  
鳥取   Tottori                
島根   Shimane           1             LDP                                
岡山   Okayama          1             LDP          
広島   Hiroshima         2             LDP DPP
山口   Yamaguchi        1             LDP                                  
徳島   Tokushima  
高知   Kōchi                1             LDP                                  
香川   Kagawa            1             LDP                                  
愛媛   Ehime              1             LDP                                  
福岡   Fukuoka           3             LDP CDP KP                      
佐賀   Saga                1             LDP                                  
長崎   Nagasaki           1             LDP                                
熊本   Kumamoto        1             LDP                                
大分   Ōita                  1             LDP          
宮崎   Miyazaki           1             LDP                                  
鹿児島Kagoshima       1             LDP                                  
沖縄   Okinawa           1            OPPN (opposition joint candidate - most likely AO background)    

For PR my current guess that it will be

            Vote share     Seats
LDP          33.5%         18
CDP          24.5%        13
KP            13.5%          7
JCP            9.0%          4
DPP            6.5%         3
JRP            5.0%          2
SDP           2.5%          1
LP              2.0%          1
HP              2.0%         1
NPB            0.5%
HRP            0.5%
PJK             0.5%


In 2017 if you count HP as Center-Left and in 2019 rump HP as Third Pole (non-LDP Right wing opposition parties) you get this chart of PR vote share if my vote share projection is correct

               LDP+           Third Pole         Center-Left        JCP
2000       41.70              12.37             34.17            11.23
2001       55.96              11.53             24.61              7.91
2003       49.73                                    42.51              7.76
2004       45.44                0.23             46.53              7.80
2005       51.43                4.80             36.51              7.25
2007       41.26                5.70             45.55              7.48
2009       38.18                8.02             46.68              7.03
2010       37.14              20.65             36.11              6.10
2012       39.45              30.38             24.05              6.13
2013       48.90              22.21             19.21              9.68
2014       46.82              18.40             22.72            11.37
2016       49.44              12.20             26.46            10.74
2017       45.79                7.16             38.92              7.90
2019       47.00                8.00             35.50              9.00

The basic idea is that CDP consolidates its position as the leading Center-Left opposition party but novelty bonus from 2017 wears off a bit and some of its 2017 support flow back to JCP.  Third Pole continues to lose ground although part of the 2017 HP vote was for Third Pole policies which now are counted correctly as Third Pole.

With seats coming out as

            District    PR      Total
LDP          40        18       58
CDP          12        13      25
KP             7          7       14
JCP            2          4         6
DPP            6         3         9
JRP            1         2         3
HP             1         1         2
LP              2         1         3
SDP           0          1         1
OPPN         3                     3
-----------------------------------------
              74        50       124

If you group them by bloc you get
LPD-KP        72
Center-Left   41   (CDP DPP LP SDP OPPN)
Third Pole      5    (JRP HP)
JCP               6

The batch elected in 2016 is
LDP-KP        70
Center-Left   38
Third Pole      7
JCP               6

If you add them up you get
LDP-KP       142
Center-Left   79
Third Pole     12
JCP              12

Center-Left + JCP are 37.14% of the seats which denies the LDP-KP plus Third Pole bloc a 2/3 majority.
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jaichind
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Posts: 27,151
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #2 on: August 07, 2018, 06:23:27 AM »

Some info on prefecture elections

April 2019 there will be a large number of prefecture elections.  All prefectures except for 岩手(Iwate), 宮城(Miyagi), 福島(Fukushima) [these 3 got "knocked off the regular cycle" due to the 2011 nuclear accident], 茨城(Ibaraki), 東京(Tokyo), and 沖縄(Okinawa) will have their prefecture election at that time.

茨城(Ibaraki) will have theirs in Dec 2018.

There have been a lot of churn since April 2015 in the non-JCP opposition space.  Namely DPJ has basically split into a Centrist DPP and a Center-Left CDP.  It seems CDP might have alliances with JCP in some prefectures but that is yet to be seen.  It is also possible if not likely that CDP will have alliances with DPP in some prefectures.

The main advantage for the LDP-KP is that they tend to have most of the raw talent at the local level since distribution of subsidies from the central government to the prefecture government flow via LDP MPs to LDP MLAs.   The LDP-KP alliance also means that unless DCP DPP and JCP can form alliances in 1-seat districts then LDP-KP are destined to sweep all of them. 

A look at how the seats are distributed between 1- 2- and even larger districts between different prefectures gives us a sense of the LDP advantage.   The dynamic will be that LDP will sweep all the 1- seat districts and potentially 2- seat districts in rural areas.  In 3- seat districts it will be LDP-LDP(or KP)-Opposition.  In 4 seat districts it will be LDP-KP-Opposition-JCP(or Opposition).  Beyond that JCP will for sure win a seat and other smaller opposition parties (JCP and SDP) will begin to get seats. 

 

茨城(Ibaraki), 埼玉(Saitama), 新潟(Niigata), 岐阜(Gifu), 大阪(Osaka), 高知(Kōchi), 福岡(Fukuoka), 熊本   (Kumamoto), and 鹿児島(Kagoshima) have a large number of seats which are 1- seat districts which gives the LDP (or JRP in Osaka) a large advantage. 

In some prefectures the LDP is so strong that a local rebel LDP faction is actually the real opposition and pulls in opposition votes and leaves the non-JCP opposition with even less votes.  茨城(Ibaraki) is an example of this although post-2017 Lower House elections the local LDP rebel kingpin 中村 喜四郎 (Nakamura Kishirō) decided to join forces with the non-JCP opposition and will most likely have an alliance with DPP if not also with CDP.

Some prefectures have specialized local circumstances.

In 岩手(Iwate) Ozawa's LP is the lynch pin of the non-JCP opposition and has deprived LDP-KP of a majority.
In 東京(Tokyo) we have Koike's  TPFA as the ruling party although with Koike's political reputation ruined with HP and 2017 elections TPFA will fall into decline to the benefit of LDP soon.
In 三重(Mie) a local anti-JCP opposition party (New Politics Mie) in alliance with the non-JCP opposition has help drive LDP-KP to below a majority.
In 大阪(Osaka) JRP-KP has a majority.  In Osaka it is de facto JRP-KP vs LDP-(non-JCP opposition)-JCP.   JRP is a LDP splinter so the LDP branch of Osaka is so hostile to JRP it rather have a de facto alliance with JCP than work with JRP.
In 沖縄(Okinawa) due to the base issue an broad anti-base Center-Left alliance have a majority.
In 滋賀(Shiga) a anti-LDP center-left local opposition (Team Shiga) in alliance with the non-JCP alliance has driven LDP-KP close to losing its majority.

The main battle in April is will LDP-KP lose ground at the prefecture level.  LDP does have a chance at winning a majority in 大阪(Osaka) and the non-JCP opposition will work to keep the LDP-KP from a majority in  三重(Mie) and perhaps 滋賀(Shiga).  Longer but possible shots have driving LDP-KP to below majority will be 長野(Nagano) and 京都(Kyoto) [JCP are strong there but that makes it harder for JCP and non-JCP opposition to form an alliance].  Everywhere else it is at best a battle to reduce the size of the LDP-KP majority.

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jaichind
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Posts: 27,151
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #3 on: August 07, 2018, 06:24:45 AM »

Abe approval rating curve holding steady


LDP support curve (pink) also steady.  CDP (light blue) dropping as its novelty factor starts to wear off
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jaichind
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*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #4 on: August 07, 2018, 07:47:19 AM »

So would it be a fair assessment to say that LDP loses their overall majority, but LDP-KP are returned with a slightly reduced majority?

Pretty much.  LDP has a majority right now mostly because of its 2013 landslide election which is unlikely to repeated. LDP won 56 out of 121 seats in 2016 and is projected by me to win 58 out of 124 seats in 2019. 

My project is somewhat friendly toward the opposition in assuming that to avoid a LDP-KP landslide the various opposition forces can come up with tactical alliances including JCP and DPP working together on a case by case basis.  Even if in a bunch of places a sub-optimal setup takes place for the opposition and say loses 5 seats to LDP relative to my model that still puts LDP seat count at 56 + 63 = 119 which is still not a majority out of 245.

Likewise the Center-Left opposition plus JCP losing 5 seats relative to my model still has them at around 35% of the seats post 2019 election which puts LDP-KP plus Third Pole below 2/3 majority.

So the way for the Center-Right opposition to under-perform my projection is clear.  It is by not making deals to come up with a unity candidate with JCP support in 1- member districts plus over-nomination in 3- and 4- member districts.   Not getting their act together means losing seats to both LDP (mostly 1- member districts) and JRP (in大阪(Osaka) and 兵庫(Hyōgo)) that they could have won.

As to how the Center-Right opposition could over-perform my projection relies on having strong candidates in Northern swing districts like 福島(Fukushima) and 宮城(Miyagi) where LDP incumbency plus the lack of the 2016 anti-TPP tide should give LDP wins despite the fact that LDP lost in 2016.  If DCP and DPP can come up with quality candidates (ex-DPJ MPs) with strong roots in the district then perhaps LDP can be beaten with support from JCP.  Other 2016 anti-TPP wave districs like 青森(Aomori) which LDP lost in 2016 and 愛媛(Ehime) where LDP almost lost in 2016 most likely are out of reach for the opposition.   In 神奈川(Kanagawa) a rump HP candidate 松沢 成文(Matsuzawa Shigefumi) who use to be the governor of prefecture will run for re-election (he was elected in 2013 as YP candidate.)  It is likely that he will eat into the LDP vote as well as opposition votes.  If the Center-Left Opposition can coordinate with JCP well they could deny Matsuzawa and win a second seat in addition to LDP and KP each obviously winning a seat.  Given the opposition track record of coordination with JCP in 3- and 4- member districts this seems unlikely.
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #5 on: August 07, 2018, 08:18:55 AM »
« Edited: August 10, 2018, 08:20:18 PM by jaichind »

Japan is the land of fairly boring party logos.  I think one of the reasons that DCP and DPP are not taking off is because their party logos are just too boring when compared to the fairly boring logos of their competitors.

LDP logo which is bland but still somewhat reasonable



KP is similar



CDP is pretty boring



DPP no better



JCP is reasonably interesting



JRP is sort of interesting
 


LP is pretty boring



HP is also pretty boring



SDP is somewhat interesting



HRP is also reasonably interesting



PJK is also pretty good
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #6 on: August 07, 2018, 12:20:50 PM »
« Edited: August 07, 2018, 12:24:47 PM by jaichind »

My current chart on seat distribution in each prefecture by bloc (LDP and pro-LDP independents, KP, Center-Left, Third Pole (JRP, TPFA, ex-YP), JCP)

           LDP+      KP     LDP+KP    Center-L Third Pole  JCP    
北海道50.50%   7.92%   58.42%   37.62%   0.00%   3.96% Hokkaido
青森   62.50%   6.25%   68.75%   25.00%   0.00%   6.25% Aomori
岩手   43.75%   2.08%   45.83%   47.92%   0.00%   6.25% Iwate
宮城   54.24%   6.78%   61.02%   20.34%   5.08%  13.56% Miyagi
秋田   62.79%   2.33%   65.12%   32.56%   0.00%   2.33% Akita
山形   68.18%   2.27%   70.45%   25.00%   0.00%   4.55% Yamagata
福島   51.72%   5.17%   56.90%   29.31%   5.17%   8.62% Fukushima
茨城   71.43%   6.35%   77.78%   17.46%   0.00%   4.76% Ibaraki
栃木   58.00%   6.00%   64.00%   24.00%  10.00%   2.00% Tochigi
群馬   66.00%   6.00%   72.00%   24.00%   0.00%   4.00% Gunma
埼玉   56.99%   9.68%   66.67%   27.96%   0.00%   5.38% Saitama
千葉   57.89%   8.42%   66.32%   26.32%   2.11%   5.26% Chiba
神奈川47.62%   9.52%   57.14%   31.43%   5.71%   5.71% Kanagawa
山梨   65.79%   2.63%   68.42%   28.95%   0.00%   2.63% Yamanashi
東京   18.11% 18.11%   36.22%     4.72%  44.09% 14.96% Tokyo
新潟   66.04%   3.77%   69.81%   28.30%   0.00%   1.89% Niigata
富山   75.00%   2.50%   77.50%   20.00%   0.00%   2.50% Toyama
石川   69.77%   4.65%   74.42%   23.26%   0.00%   2.33% Ishikawa
福井   72.97%   2.70%   75.68%   21.62%   0.00%   2.70% Fukui
長野   37.93% 17.24%   55.17%   29.31%   1.72%  13.79% Nagano
岐阜   69.57%   4.35%   73.91%   21.74%   2.17%   2.17% Gifu
静岡   59.42%   7.25%   66.67%   31.88%   0.00%   1.45% Shizuoka
愛知   56.86%   5.88%   62.75%   32.35%   2.94%   1.96% Aichi
三重   41.18%   3.92%   45.10%   49.02%   1.96%   3.92% Mie
滋賀   47.73%   4.55%   52.27%   40.91%   0.00%   6.82% Shiga
京都   46.67%   8.33%   55.00%   18.33%   3.33%  23.33% Kyoto
大阪   29.55% 17.05%   46.59%    1.14%   48.86%   3.41% Osaka
兵庫   52.33% 15.12%   67.44%   16.28%  10.47%   5.81% Hyōgo
奈良   50.00%   6.82%   56.82%   20.45% 11.36%  11.36% Nara
和歌山71.43%   7.14%   78.57%   11.90%   2.38%   7.14% Wakayama
鳥取   60.00%   8.57%   68.57%   25.71%   0.00%   5.71% Tottori
島根   64.86%   5.41%   70.27%   24.32%   0.00%   5.41% Shimane
岡山   65.45%   9.09%   74.55%   20.00%   0.00%   5.45% Okayama
広島   65.63%   9.38%   75.00%   23.44%   0.00%   1.56% Hiroshima
山口   68.09% 10.64%   78.72%   17.02%   0.00%   4.26% Yamaguchi
徳島   74.36%   5.13%   79.49%   12.82%   0.00%   7.69% Tokushima
香川   70.73%   4.88%   75.61%   19.51%   0.00%   4.88% Kagawa
愛媛   61.70%   6.38%   68.09%   17.02% 12.77%   2.13% Ehime
高知   54.05%   8.11%   62.16%   27.03%   0.00% 10.81% Kōchi
福岡   59.30% 12.79%   72.09%   25.58%   0.00%   2.33% Fukuoka
佐賀   71.05%   5.26%   76.32%   18.42%   0.00%   5.26% Saga
長崎   60.87%   6.52%   67.39%   28.26%   2.17%   2.17% Nagasaki
熊本   64.58%   6.25%   70.83%   27.08%   0.00%   2.08% Kumamoto
大分   55.81%   6.98%   62.79%   32.56%   2.33%   2.33% Ōita
宮崎   64.10%   7.69%   71.79%   23.08%   0.00%   5.13% Miyazaki
鹿児島72.55%   5.88%   78.43%   17.65%   1.96%   1.96% Kagoshima
沖縄   31.25%   8.33%   39.58%   43.75%   4.17%  12.50% Okinawa
Tot    55.92%   8.08%   64.00%   24.57%   5.66%   5.77%

All of them will be up for re-election in April 2019 except for

岩手(Iwate) - Sept 2019
宮城(Miyagi) - Nov 2019
福島(Fukushima) - Nov 2019
茨城(Ibaraki) - Dec 2018
東京(Tokyo) - Jun 2021
沖縄(Okinawa) - Jun 2020

The domination of LDP is very clear and add to KP LDP-KP has a majority in pretty much every prefecture except for 岩手(Iwate) [Ozawa territory], 東京(Tokyo) [Koike and TPFA rule but TPFA is pretty much discredited and will for sure lose to LDP-KP in 20210], 三重(Mie) [Local anti-JCP Center-Left opposition (New Politics Mie) very strong], 大阪(Osaka) (JRP is the ruling party here with KP), and 沖縄(Okinawa) (anti-base politics driven pro-base LDP to opposition]

Prefecture where LDP-KP has a majority but LDP does not have a majority by itself are 神奈川(Kanagawa) [anti-LDP governor nurtured an anti-LDP regional party that ate into the LDP base], 長野(Nagano) [JCP is very strong here], 滋賀(Shiga) [tradition of anti-LDP governors has nurtured anti-LDP regional parties that ate into LDP base], and 京都(Kyoto) [JCP very strong here.]

Note that KP has alliance with KP in all prefectures except for 大阪(Osaka) (KP in alliance with JRP) and 東京(Tokyo) (on paper KP has alliance with TPFA but that alliance is pretty much off and KP is de facto with LDP again without an open break with Koike's TPFA).
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jaichind
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E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #7 on: August 08, 2018, 07:14:43 AM »

You are a closer observer, but I wonder why you are so bullish on the CDP - DPP spread. It seems to me that there is little difference in underlying support between the two. They are now equally strong in each house of the Diet, and DPP will probably benefit from less vote-splitting within the centre-right opposition this time.

Because while these parties do have policy positions that we think of as Right-Left and voting behavior often often matches those cleavages the reality is that policy position often are not the main determining factor for voting behavior.  On the PR section it comes down to party image.   

After the 2009-2012 DPJ fiasco the current image is LDP is the big tent party that gets things done while the DPJ is the big tent party that  cannot shoot straight and is merely the incompetent version of LDP.  So all attempts post-2012 by the DPJ to merge split and re-merge are attempts to shake this image merely makes it worse by showing the voting population that it has no principles (which in theory is fine because LDP has no principles but LDP has a image of getting results so that is OK.)   The voters wants a party that plays dirty and have no principles but gets things done can vote LDP and they do.  Those that does not want or need that combination would then want a "party with a difference" and would be principled enough not to M&A to victory.  DCP had a large surge in 2017 not because of its Left positions but more because it refused to accept into its party those that are not fully committed to repealing the 2015 Security Bill driving a lot of DP MPs into HP.   The way DPP was formed with was a merger of what remains of DP and the non-Koike party of HP (which is like 90% of HP) merely creates this image of DPJ II (an incompetent version of LDP.)   As it is DPP is also for repealing of the 2015 Security bill which it knew it had to take if it wanted an alliance with DCP.  Of course it is not at the top of the DPP agenda means that a DCP-DPP merger would not be possible.  But in the meantime those that reject the LDP style of politics are much more likely to gravitate toward DCP leaving DPP in the single digits of support. 

Of course I do think that the DCP style of politics might get it support into the 20s but most likely no more then that and will never be enough (even in an alliance with JCP) to defeat LDP-KP.  On the long run the way to take down LDP would be a big tent party like DPJ II.  I guess that will have to wait another few election cycles for the once in a generation LDP meltdown.  Parties like DCP can become a principled and more socially accepted version of JCP as opposition to LDP-KP in the meantime.
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jaichind
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« Reply #8 on: August 08, 2018, 11:33:13 AM »

Okinawa's anti-base governor Takeshi Onaga (翁長 雄志) just pass away.  This is a big blow to the anti-LDP bloc in  Okinawa.  He was up for re-election in Dec 2018 and given the anti-base sentiment should be able to win re-election.  Now the anti-base bloc will have to come up with a candidate that can unite all the anti-base forces for the Dec 2018 governor race.  LDP now has a chance to recapture the governorship in Dec.
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jaichind
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« Reply #9 on: August 09, 2018, 06:26:41 AM »

While parties like the LDP are announcing renomination of existing incumbents in the 2019 Upper House race the full list of candidates, especially on the opposition, will not be known until months from now.  But one can still look at some historical stats of key battleground prefectures to get a sense what is likely going to take place.

We do this by looking at the 2013 and 2016 Upper House results as well as the PR vote of 2013 2016 Upper House and 2017 Lower House grouped party type (LDP-KP, Center-Left, Third Pole, and JCP) to get a sense of if LDP-KP tend to over or under perform their PR vote in the prefecture in question in 2013 and 2016 followed by using the 2017 PR vote share result to get a sense of what the likely strengths of different blocs in 2019 is likely to be.
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jaichind
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« Reply #10 on: August 09, 2018, 06:50:58 AM »
« Edited: August 13, 2018, 04:35:59 AM by jaichind »

First battleground prefecture is 北海道(Hokkaido) where it used to have 2 seats per Upper House election cycle but have moved to 3 in 2016.  With 2 it is easy, it will be LDP followed by the main Center-Left party.  With 3 北海道(Hokkaido) has enough of an anti-LDP lean to make the 3rd seat up in the air.

In 2013 when it was 2 seats the results were
LDP          37.70% elected  (incumbent)
DPJ          24.36% elected  (incumbent)
NPD         14.70%
JCP          11.35%
YP            10.92%
HRP           0.97%

While the PR vote was
LDP-KP       44.41%
Center-Left 20.44% (DPJ SDP PLP GP GW)
Third Pole   12.34%  (JRP YP)
NPD           11.73%  (NPD is Third Pole but they are 北海道(Hokkaido) based so I split them out)
JCP            10.76%
HRP             0.33%

So some LDP-KP PR vote (mostly the KP vote) went over to DPJ and NPD (more likely the LDP PR vote)

In 2016 NDP did not run and mostly endorsed LDP
LDP           25.47% elected  (incumbent)
DP             22.00% elected  (incumbent)
DP             19.29% elected
LDP           18.96% (endorsed by NPD but lost)
JCP             9.41%
PJK             1.34%
NPB            1.14%
LDP rebel    1.05%
HRP            0.83%
DP rebel      0.51%

While the PR vote was
LDP-KP       46.23%
Center-Left 34.03%  (DP PLP SDP VPA)
Third Pole     5.38%  (ORA PJK NPR)
JCP            11.44%
NPB             1.45%
HRP             0.57%

It seems there was some Third Pole PR vote that went to both LDP and DP.  Taking this into account it seems like 2013 some of the LDP-KP PR vote (most likely the KP PR vote) defected to DP.

In 2017 the PR vote was
LDP-KP       39.84%
Center-Left 36.27% (CDP HP SDP)
Third Pole     2.76% (JRP)
NPD             8.37% (NPD is Third Pole but they are 北海道(Hokkaido) based so I split them out)
JCP              8.51%
HRP             0.52%

For 2019 the 2 2013 incumbents are likely to run.  1 is LDP and the other is an ex-DPJ independent but has a DCP lean so most likely will run a de jure or de facto DCP.  JCP will run a candidate of course but will have fairly low chance of getting into the top 3.  It is clear LDP will run another candidate to try to win 3rd seat.  DCP will most likely want to do the same.    Outstanding issues are  a) will DPP also try to run a candidate which will doom the second DCP candidate or can DCP work otu a deal with DPP for DPP to stand down?
b) will NPD run a candidate which is more likely to harm the second LDP candidate but will depend on the NPD cadndidate
c) how will the 2017 NPD PR vote flow in 2019.  In 2017 it seems the NPD PR vote actually split their support in the district vote between the LDP and the opposition.

Given the historic 北海道(Hokkaido) LDP under-performance relative to the LDP-KP PR, the 2017 record of the NPD PR vote to split their support in the district vote and making the assumption that DCP and DPP can work out a deal it seems more likely then not that DCP wins the 3rd seat to make the result LDP DCP DCP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #11 on: August 09, 2018, 11:48:05 AM »
« Edited: August 13, 2018, 04:36:31 AM by jaichind »

青森(Aomori) is very likely a LDP win but the opposition won here in 2016 so it makes sense to at least be on the list of battleground.  This is a 1- seat district which went opposition in 2016 due to the anti-TPP wave.

In 2013 it was
LDP            51.33% elected
PLP            15.00%  (incumbent)
YP              12.47%
Ind(DPJ)     10.41%
JCP              9.48%
HRP             1.31%

While in the PR vote it was
LDP-KP       54.68%
Center-Left 19.93% (DPJ SDP PLP GP GW)
Third Pole   15.49%  (JRP YP NPD)
JCP              9.35%
HRP             0.55%

So there were some LDP-KP PR voter defection to the various Center-Left candidates.  The PLP candidate was the incumbent so that was part of the reason.

In 2016 there was a Center-Left-JCP grand alliance where JCP backed the DP canddiate
DP              49.19%  elected
LDP            47.88%   (incumbent)
HRP             2.93%

While the PR vote was
LDP-KP       53.19%
Center-Left 30.45%  (DP PLP SDP VPA)
Third Pole     5.55%  (ORA PJK NPR)
JCP              8.92%
NPB             1.10%
HRP             0.80%

LDP-KP PR vote clearly flowed to the DP candidate as well as some protest votes to HRP.  The anti-TPP sentiment in the farm vote was a significant reason for this.

In 2017 the PR vote was
LDP-KP       49.89%
Center-Left 37.68% (CDP HP SDP)
Third Pole     3.38% (JRP PJK)
JCP              8.31%
HRP             0.74%

So in theory given the track record of LDP under-performing the LDP-KP PR vote a united Grand alliance (Center-Left + JCP) candidate could win using the 2017 PR numbers.   On the other hand the LDP will have an incumbent running and without the anti-TPP wave of 2016 most likely LDP should still have the upper hand.
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jaichind
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« Reply #12 on: August 09, 2018, 10:27:07 PM »
« Edited: August 13, 2018, 04:36:51 AM by jaichind »

岩手(Iwate) should go LP since this is Ozawa territory but the LDP always have a chance in any 1- member district.

In 2013 it was
PLP rebel    39.71% elected  (incumbent)
LDP            26.35%
PLP            14.86%
DPJ            10.12%
JCP              7.59%
HRP             1.36%

While in the PR vote it was
LDP-KP       41.97%
Center-Left 36.71% (DPJ SDP PLP GP GW)
Third Pole   11.66%  (JRP YP NPD)
JCP              9.10%
HRP             0.55%

The incumbent PLP rebel who was with Ozawa for years ran and pulled in some LDP and Third Pole votes in addition to some Center-Left votes to win in a multi-polar race.  The PLP rebel later joined LDP in 2016.

In 2016 there was a Center-Left-JCP grand alliance where JCP backed the de facto PLP candidate
Ind(PLP)     53.34%  elected
LDP            41.04%
HRP             5.62%

While the PR vote was
LDP-KP       43.51%
Center-Left 35.79%  (DP PLP SDP VPA)
Third Pole     6.73%  (ORA PJK NPR)
JCP             11.24%
NPB             1.30%
HRP             1.42%

The LDP lost votes relative to the LDP-KP PR vote which partly is because of anti-TPP wave but like 2013 LDP seems to under-perform the LDP-KP PR vote.   Three seems to be both high anti-LDP and anti-Ozawa sentiment which mean a very high vote share for the HRP candidate.

In 2017 the PR vote was
LDP-KP       40.11%
Center-Left 47.17% (CDP HP SDP)
Third Pole     3.32% (JRP PJK)
JCP              8.31%
HRP             0.66%

As long as JCP and the rest of the Center-Left backs the LP candidate should win.  The ex-PLP now LDP incumbent might outperform perhaps the LDP-KP PR vote now the anti-TPP wave is over but that is most likely not enough to defeat LP.  Ozawa's LP should continues to rule 岩手(Iwate).
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« Reply #13 on: August 10, 2018, 07:10:04 AM »
« Edited: August 13, 2018, 04:38:10 AM by jaichind »

宮城(Miyagi) is a 1- member district since 2016 from a 2- member district when it became a 1- member district battleground.

In 2013 it was
LDP            44.71% elected  (incumbent)
YP              23.35% elected
DPJ            22.81%  (incumbent)
JCP              8.11%
HRP             1.02%

While in the PR vote it was
LDP-KP       46.12%
Center-Left 20.97% (DPJ SDP PLP GP GW)
Third Pole   24.09%  (JRP YP NPD)
JCP              8.53%
HRP             0.30%

District vote mostly matches the PR vote.  LDP under-performed the LDP-KP PR vote by a small margin.  The YP winner went to PFG/PJK after YP imploded in 2014 and recently joined LDP.

In 2016 there was a Center-Left-JCP grand alliance where JCP backed the DP candidate
DP             51.10%  elected  (incumbent)
LDP           46.98%   (incumbent)
HRP             1.92%

While the PR vote was
LDP-KP       50.10%
Center-Left 32.07%  (DP PLP SDP VPA)
Third Pole     6.11%  (ORA PJK NPR)
JCP              9.99%
NPB             1.06%
HRP             0.69%

Here both the LDP and DP candidates were incumbents from 2010 when the district was a 2- member district so the LDP did not have an incumbency advantage and clearly under-performed the LDP-KP PR vote  which also included the anti-TPP wave.

In 2017 the PR vote was
LDP-KP       46.64%
Center-Left 39.89% (CDP HP SDP)
Third Pole     5.59% (JRP PJK)
JCP              7.44%
HRP             0.66%

The YP turned LDP incumbent will run under the LDP PR list clearing the LDP incumbent from 2013 to run for re-election.   Even taking into account LDP's track record here of under-performing the LDP-KP vote, the 2013 and 2016 results had opposition incumbents while in 2019 it will be a LDP incumbent so you have to give the LDP the edge.  Of course it is possible that the opposition might recruit a key ex-DPJ MP to run as a DPP candidate which could swing the race away from LDP.
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« Reply #14 on: August 10, 2018, 04:54:09 PM »
« Edited: September 23, 2018, 02:48:50 PM by jaichind »

山形(Yamagata) is another 1- member district in Northern Japan that is a battleground.  

In 2013 it was
LDP            48.22% elected
GW            44.55%  (incumbent)
JCP              5.96%
HRP             1.27%

While in the PR vote it was
LDP-KP       50.86%
Center-Left  30.60% (DPJ SDP PLP GP GW)
Third Pole    12.15% (JRP YP NPD)
JCP              6.06%
HRP             0.32%

Here the GW incumbent (who was elected in 2007 as DPJ but then formed GW in 2012) was fairly popular and drove the LDP candidate to below the LDP-KP PR vote in a losing effort.

In 2016 there was a Center-Left-JCP grand alliance where JCP backed the same GW incumbent defeated in 2013 but now running as a pro-DP independent.
Ind(DP)     59.05%  elected  (ex-MP)
LDP           38.34%
HRP             2.16%

While the PR vote was
LDP-KP       54.27%
Center-Left 29.56%  (DP PLP SDP VPA)
Third Pole     6.16%  (ORA PJK NPR)
JCP              7.60%
NPB             1.62%
HRP             0.79%

The pro-DP ex-incumbent from 2013 won in a landslide on a wave of the personal vote and the anti-TPP tide.  The LDP candidate way under-performed the LDP-KP PR vote.  

In 2017 the PR vote was
LDP-KP       46.51%
Center-Left 43.63% (CDP HP SDP)
Third Pole     3.62% (JRP PJK)
JCP              5,83%
HRP             0.41%

While the popular opposition candidate of 2013 and 2016 will not be running in 2019, as long as the Center-Left and JCP can agree to back a common candidate the common opposition candidate should have the edge even if the LDP incumbent manages to match the performance of the LDP-KP PR vote.
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« Reply #15 on: August 10, 2018, 07:55:03 PM »
« Edited: August 13, 2018, 04:39:30 AM by jaichind »

The last Northern Japan battleground prefecture is 福島(Fukushima.).  In 2013 福島(Fukushima) was made a 1- member district from a 2- member district.

In 2013 it was
LDP            56.59% elected  (incumbent)
DPJ            28.15%  (incumbent)
JCP              9.05%
SDP             4.19%
HRP             1.15%
Minor           0.87%

While in the PR vote it was
LDP-KP        49.16%
Center-Left  27.09% (DPJ SDP PLP GP GW)
Third Pole    14.50% (JRP YP NPD)
JCP              8.92%
HRP             0.33%

Both the LDP and DPJ candidates were incumbents from 2007 when it was a 2- member district.  LDP clearly outperformed the LDP-KP PR vote share and attracted a good part of the Third Pole PR vote.

In 2016 there was a Center-Left-JCP grand alliance where JCP backed the DP candidate
DP             50.50%  elected  (incumbent)
LDP           47.24%   (incumbent)
HRP             2.25%
 
While the PR vote was
LDP-KP       44.78%
Center-Left 33.94%  (DP PLP SDP VPA)
Third Pole     9.37%  (ORA PJK NPR)
JCP            10.45%
NPB             0.90%
HRP             0.56%

Both the LDP and DP candidates were incumbent from the 2010 election when it was a 2- member district.  Again the LDP candidate was above to perform above the LDP-KP PR vote and attract some Third Pole PR vote although it was not enough to beat back the DP candidate.

In 2017 the PR vote was
LDP-KP       43.02%
Center-Left 44.59% (CDP HP SDP)
Third Pole     4.12% (JRP PJK)
JCP              7.77%
HRP             0.51%

In 2019 even if the Center-Left and JCP can consolidate around a common candidate (most likely someone of DPP background) the fact that LDP tends to outperform the LDP-KP PR vote share and that the LDP candidate will be the lone incumbent means LDP should have the edge.  Of course if the united opposition can nominate a high quality candidate, like a possible ex-DPJ MP, then the race could tilt toward the opposition.
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« Reply #16 on: August 11, 2018, 05:51:38 AM »
« Edited: August 13, 2018, 04:40:42 AM by jaichind »

埼玉(Saitama) is a 3- member district which starting in 2019 will become a 4- member district.  As a 3- member district  埼玉(Saitama) results are simple: it will always be LDP KP and Center-Left.  As a 4- member district the results are less certain.

In 2013 it was
LDP            34.05% elected  (incumbent)
KP              20.41% elected
YP              16.52% elected   (incumbent)
DPJ            13.26%  (incumbent)
JCP            12.03%
SDP             2.24%
HRP             0.76%
Minor           0.73%

While in the PR vote it was
LDP-KP        48.22%
Center-Left  17.57% (DPJ SDP PLP GP GW)
Third Pole    22.54% (JRP YP NPD)
JCP             11.34%
HRP              0.33%

2013 was very bad for the Center-Left bloc and YP win the third seat instead of the DPJ candidate.
 The YP incumbent winner has a DPJ background and can best be described as a centrist feminist despite running for YP.  She clearly lost a bunch of Third Pole PR vote to LDP and KP despite winning even as she pulled in some Center-Left PR votes.  After YP imploded the YP winner eventually joined HP and stayed with HP after DPP split from HP despite the fact that the rump HP has become a very hard Right Third Pole party.

In 2016 things returned to normal and it was
LDP           29.19% elected  (incumbent)
DP             21.98% elected  (incumbent)
KP             20.87% elected  (incumbent)
JCP            15.81%
ORA            7.42%
PJK             3.83%
HRP            0.89%

While the PR vote was
LDP-KP       48.31%
Center-Left 25.43%  (DP PLP SDP VPA)
Third Pole   10.66%  (ORA PJK NPR)
JCP            13.94%
NPB             1.16%
HRP             0.50%

The DP candidate lost Center-Left PR votes to both LDP/KP as well as JCP even as the DP candidate was elected.

In 2017 the PR vote was
LDP-KP       44.01%
Center-Left 43.06% (CDP HP SDP)
Third Pole     3.74% (JRP)
JCP              8.73%
HRP             0.46%

The 2019 battle will see a LDP KP clearly winning a seat each.  Even though the Center-Left tends to under-perform the Center-Left PR vote DCP most likely will win a seat as well.  The last seat will be a battle between the YP incumbent elected in 2013 running for HP and the JCP.   It is not clear if DPP will nominate a candidate and if they did then it will become a 3 way battle for the 4th seat.  In fact if that were to take place LDP might nominate a second candidate to take advantage of the opposition split to make the battle for the 4th seat a 4 way battle.  As it is with Third Pole PR support falling a lot since 2013 you have the give the advantage to win the 4th seat to JCP given their relativity strong position in 埼玉(Saitama) and their track record of outperforming the JCP PR vote.
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« Reply #17 on: August 11, 2018, 06:40:18 PM »
« Edited: August 13, 2018, 06:17:30 AM by jaichind »

神奈川(Kanagawa) is a 4- member district which means LDP and KP will win 1 seat each along with a likely Center-Left candidate.  The battle is usually about who wins the last one.  If the opposition is split enough then the LDP will try to pick one more off.  Even without that it is often a battle between a Center-Left opposition, JCP and possibly a Third Pole candidate for the last seat.

In 2013 it was
LDP            28.79% elected
YP              18.85% elected (ex-MP and ex-Governor)
KP              16.03% elected
DPJ            11.74% elected  (incumbent)
JCP            11.33%  (ex-MP)
JRP              6.17%  (incumbent)
GW              3.05%
SDP             1.96%
ISS              1.05%  (Far Right Monarchical)
Minor           0.77%
HRP             0.25%

While in the PR vote it was
LDP-KP        45.57%
Center-Left  18.63% (DPJ SDP PLP GP GW)
Third Pole    25.39% (JRP YP NPD)
JCP             10.19%
HRP              0.23%

The results mostly matches the PR vote with YP winning a seat in a very strong year for Third Pole.  The YP winner which is a former governor was very high profile later joined PFG/PJK before joining HP and is now the leader of the rump HP.

In 2016 it was
LDP           24.50% elected   (incumbent)
KP             15.35% elected
DP             14.19% elected  (incumbent on the PR section)
Ind(LDP)    12.77% elected  (incumbent)
JCP            11.89%
DP             10.94%   (incumbent)
ORA            5.33%
SDP            1.86%
PJK             1.23%
LDP rebel    0.78%
NPB            0.63%
HRP            0.53%

While the PR vote was
LDP-KP       47.10%
Center-Left 27.73%  (DP PLP SDP VPA)
Third Pole   10.74%  (ORA PJK NPR)
JCP            12.46%
NPB             1.48%
HRP             0.49%

Here 2 DP and 1 JCP candidates fighting for the 2 seats beyond LDP and KP provoked a LDP faction to nominate an ex-YP incumbent from 2010 to try to take advantage of the opposition split over the objection of another LDP faction which was backing the official LDP candidate.  This intra-LDP battle actually provoked tactical voting from Center-Left and Third Pole PR votes for the 2 LDP candidates which actually led to the pro-LDP independent winning after which he was retroactively nominated by the LDP.

In 2017 the PR vote was
LDP-KP       45.13%
Center-Left 42.37% (CDP HP SDP)
Third Pole     3.95% (JRP)
JCP              8.19%
HRP             0.35%

LDP and KP will win 1 seat each.  Most likely CDP and DPP will nominate a candidate each along with JCP and the HP incumbent will run as well.  Having 4 opposition candidates for the 2 remaining seats will most likely provoke LDP to run a second candidate as well.  Given local roots of the HP candidates and the strength of CDP PR vote most likely the 2 remaining seats will be CDP and HP.  Although it is possible JCP or LDP might win instead of the HP candidate with DPP candidate further behind.  But this will depend on the identity of the CDP DPP and possible LDP candidate.  

There are already rumors that 神奈川(Kanagawa) in 2019 will be a total chaotic fight with 2 LDP candidates, 1 KP, 2 DCP, 1 DPP, 1 HP, 1 JCP, 1 JRP and 1 SDP candidate.  If so it could upend all calculations and result in landslide defeats in terms of seats for either the ruling or opposition blocs.   In such a case I still think it will end up being LDP KP CDP JCP although the result will be quite volatile.
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jaichind
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Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #18 on: August 12, 2018, 08:20:17 AM »
« Edited: August 13, 2018, 04:44:54 AM by jaichind »

山梨(Yamanashi) is a 1- member district which always has been a swing prefecture.  

In 2013 it was
LDP            37.30% elected
Ind(DPJ)     19.81%
LDP rebel    16.18%
YP              15.38%  (incumbent)
JCP              9.44%
Minor           1.04%
HRP             0.84%

While in the PR vote it was
LDP-KP        48.54%
Center-Left  19.75% (DPJ SDP PLP GP GW)
Third Pole    22.56% (JRP YP NPD)
JCP              8.76%
HRP             0.39%

The LDP rebel took in a bunch of LDP-KP and Third Pole PR vote.  

In 2016 there was a Center-Left-JCP grand alliance where JCP backed the DP candidate but with DP rebel with YP background (was a DPJ winner in 2007 and lost in 2013 as the YP candidate)
DP              43.02%  elected
LDP            37.75%
DP rebel     16.71%  (ex-MP)
HRP             2.52%

While the PR vote was
LDP-KP       50.18%
Center-Left 32.10%  (DP PLP SDP VPA)
Third Pole     6.32%  (ORA PJK NPR)
JCP              9.20%
NPB             1.34%
HRP             0.86%

Here the DP rebel ate more info the LDP-KP PR vote share than the Center-Left PR vote share with the DP candidate winning by a comfortable margin.  

In 2017 the PR vote was
LDP-KP       47.13%
Center-Left 41.27% (CDP HP SDP)
Third Pole     3.46% (JRP)
JCP              7.38%
HRP             0.77%

Given the track record of the LDP candidate having problems holding the LDP-KP PR vote share as long as the Center-Left and JCP can get behind a common candidate (most likely from CDP) most likely LDP will lose this seat despite the LDP incumbent advantage but this one will most likely be very close.
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #19 on: August 12, 2018, 02:25:49 PM »
« Edited: August 13, 2018, 04:46:49 AM by jaichind »

東京(Tokyo) which was a 5- member district until it became a 6- member district in 2016 will also be a battleground given the fact that with so many members to be elected the threshold to be elected were always low.  With a 5- or 6- member district LDP KP and JCP will win a seat each with the rest depending on the structure of candidates.  Since the number of candidates were large I will focus on the large vote share candidates (above 1%.)

In 2013 it was
LDP            18.88% elected  (incumbent)
KP              14.15% elected  (incumbent)
JCP            12.49% elected
Ind(SDP)    11.83% elected
LDP            10.86% elected  (incumbent)
DPJ              9.80%  (incumbent)
JRP              7.34%
YP                5.68%
DPJ rebel      4.20%  (incumbent)
ISS              1.37%  (Far Right Monarchical)
GW              1.25%

While in the PR vote it was
LDP-KP        44.14%
Center-Left  17.27% (DPJ SDP PLP GP GW)
Third Pole    24.63% (JRP YP NPD)
JCP             13.71%
HRP              0.25%

LDP-KP candidates mostly retained the LDP-KP PR vote while the Third Pole candidates clearly lost Third Pole PR vote share to Center-Left candidates.  The DPJ rebel cost the Center-Left a second winner beyond SDP backed anti-nuclear independent.  The anti-nuclear independent later joined PLP which later became LP.  

In 2016 it was
DP             18.05% elected  (incumbent)
LDP           14.22% elected  (incumbent)
KP             12.38% elected  (incumbent)
JCP            10.70% elected
LDP           10.36% elected
DP              8.16% elected  (incumbent)
ORA            7.54% (ex-MP)
DP rebel      4.98%
Ind(PLP)      4.13% (Far Left and most likely pulled in JCP PR vote)
PJK             1.65%
SDP            1.51%
VPA            1.32%
DP rebel      1.09%

While the PR vote was
LDP-KP       45.81%
Center-Left 27.39%  (DP PLP SDP VPA)
Third Pole   10.73%  (ORA PJK NPR)
JCP            14.21%
NPB             1.50%
HRP             0.37%

Here LDP-KP way under-performed the LDP-KP PR vote and lost most of them to Center-Left candidates.  Poor vote allocation between the 2 DP candidates nearly lost DP a seat to ORA.

In 2017 the PR vote was
LDP-KP       41.28%
Center-Left 41.98% (CDP HP SDP)
Third Pole     4.00% (JRP PJK)
JCP            10.37%
HRP             0.27%

It is clear that LDP will nominate 2 candidates, JCP 1 candidate, LP will nominate their incumbent.  CDP might nominate 1 or 2 candidates, DPP will nominate 1 candidate and JRP will nominate 1 candidate.  LDP KP and JCP will for sure win 1 seat each.  CDP LP and the second LDP candidates are all likely to win.  JRP might take one of them down but that seems unlikely.  Main risk for CDP is that 2 CDP candidates plus a DPP candidate could split the Center-Left vote so that JRP comes in and take one of the CDP seats.  To some extent the second LDP candidate could be also vulnerable depending on the LDP vote split between the 2 LDP candidates.        
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #20 on: August 12, 2018, 05:42:14 PM »
« Edited: August 13, 2018, 04:48:36 AM by jaichind »

新潟(Niigata) was a 2- member district until 2016 until it became a 1- member district.  Before 2016 the result is easy, 1 LDP and 1 Center-Left opposition.  After 2016 this became a battleground prefecture.

In 2013 it was
LDP            43.01% elected  (incumbent)
DPJ            19.30% elected  (incumbent from PR list)
PLP            15.57%  (incumbent)
JRP            10.14%
JCP              5.68%
SDP             4.43%
LDP rebel     1.47%
HRP             0.49%

While in the PR vote it was
LDP-KP        48.32%
Center-Left  26.48% (DPJ SDP PLP GP GW)
Third Pole    17.36% (JRP YP NPD)
JCP               7.48%
HRP              0.36%

The PLP candidate was the incumbent elected in 2007 on the DPJ ticket and lost re-election.  Center-Left candidates clearly pulled in votes from LDP-KP and Third Pole PR voters.

In 2016 there was a Center-Left-JCP grand alliance where JCP backed the PLP incumbent loser from 2013 as a common candidate running as an independent.  
Ind(PLP)     49.02%  elected (ex-MP)
LDP            48.82%  (incumbent)
HRP             2.16%

While the PR vote was
LDP-KP       51.93%
Center-Left 31.65%  (DP PLP SDP VPA)
Third Pole     6.14%  (ORA PJK NPR)
JCP              8.00%
NPB             1.59%
HRP             0.70%

Clearly the LDP candidate lost a bunch of LDP-KP PR vote to lose in a close race.

In 2017 the PR vote was
LDP-KP       46.29%
Center-Left 42.58% (CDP HP SDP)
Third Pole     3.20% (JRP)
JCP              7.25%
HRP             0.68%

We have to assume that both the LDP and DPJ turned CDP incumbents will run.  If so as long as the Center-Left bloc and stay united and get JCP to back a common candidate the opposition should win given the LDP track record of losing LDP-KP PR votes.
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #21 on: August 13, 2018, 07:02:35 AM »

長野(Nagano) was a 2- member district until 2016 when it became a 1- member district which turned it into a battleground prefecture.  JCP is very strong here and if the Center-Left can form an alliance with the JCP then LDP is mostly destined to lose.

In 2013 it was
LDP            37.24% elected  (incumbent)
DPJ            30.05% elected  (incumbent)
JCP            15.77%
YP              10.91%
DPJ rebel      5.27%
HRP             0.77%

While in the PR vote it was
LDP-KP        42.21%
Center-Left  24.79% (DPJ SDP PLP GP GW)
Third Pole    18.70% (JRP YP NPD)
JCP             13.87%
HRP              0.43%

The Center-Left candidates pulled in LDP-KP and Third Pole PR votes mostly, it seems, as tactical voting to ensure that the JCP candidate does not win.

In 2016 there was a Center-Left-JCP grand alliance where JCP backed the DP candidate
DP             52.45%  elected
LDP           45.69%   (incumbent)
HRP             1.86%

While the PR vote was
LDP-KP       45.97%
Center-Left 33.68%  (DP PLP SDP VPA)
Third Pole     5.82%  (ORA PJK NPR)
JCP            12.61%
NPB             1.20%
HRP             0.72%

Despite the LDP incumbency advantage the LDP candidate seems to have just pulled in the LDP-KP PR vote and nothing else in a losing effort as the DPJ incumbent from 2010 retired.

In 2017 the PR vote was
LDP-KP       37.56%
Center-Left 45.17% (CDP HP SDP)
Third Pole     5.63% (JRP)
JCP            11.04%
HRP             0.60%

So as long as the Center-Left parties can form an alliance with JCP then DPJ turned DPP incumbent should be set for re-election over the LDP incumbent.  If the JCP runs separately then the LDP will be at a slight disadvantage and we could have a battle on our hands.   
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #22 on: August 13, 2018, 10:49:34 AM »

三重(Mie) is a 1- member district which has a pro-opposition lean since the early 1990s  and as a result is a battleground district.

In 2013 it was
LDP            44.23% elected
DPJ            37.62% (incumbent)
JRP              8.39%
JCP              7.02%
LDP rebel     1.76%
HRP             0.98%

While in the PR vote it was
LDP-KP        47.25%
Center-Left  27.23% (DPJ SDP PLP GP GW)
Third Pole    18.22% (JRP YP NPD)
JCP               6.92%
HRP              0.38%

The DPJ incumbent was fairly popular so he was able to pull in some LDP-KP and Third Pole PR votes in a losing effort.

In 2016 there was a Center-Left-JCP grand alliance where JCP backed the DP candidate
DP             49.72%  elected (incumbent)
LDP           47.48% 
HRP             2.81%

While the PR vote was
LDP-KP       46.75%
Center-Left 37.79%  (DP PLP SDP VPA)
Third Pole     6.52%  (ORA PJK NPR)
JCP              7.59%
NPB             0.62%
HRP             0.74%

The local Center-Left forces are fairly hostile to JCP and resisted the JCP alliance until the last minute.  The LDP candidate was to over-perform the LDP-KP PR vote despite the DP incumbency advantage is a sign of this.  In the end it was not enough and the DP incumbent was able to win.

In 2017 the PR vote was
LDP-KP       46.84%
Center-Left 41.45% (CDP HP SDP)
Third Pole     4.62% (JRP)
JCP              6.35%
HRP             0.73%

Most of the Center-Left forces in 三重(Mie) post the DP-HP merger into DPP joined up with a local 三重(Mie) based party which is pro-CDP.  So assuming the Center-Left bloc forms an alliance with JCP it will be a pro-CDP independent that will run as the common opposition candidate.   This realignment has improved the relationship between the Center-Left and JCP and most likely the joint opposition candidate can pull out a win against the LDP incumbent even though it will be close. 
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #23 on: August 13, 2018, 12:54:26 PM »

滋賀(Shiga) is a 1- member district which go LDP but since it was competitive in the 2000-2010 period one can argue that it is a battleground district.

In 2013 it was
LDP            53.42% elected
DPJ            29.24% (incumbent)
JCP            15.12%
HRP             2.22%

While in the PR vote it was
LDP-KP        46.22%
Center-Left  21.21% (DPJ SDP PLP GP GW)
Third Pole    21.67% (JRP YP NPD)
JCP             10.46%
HRP              0.43%

It seems here the LDP candidate drew in a good portion of the Third Pole PR vote to make a win very easy as JCP also ate into the Center-Left PR vote.

In 2016 there was a Center-Left-JCP grand alliance where JCP backed the DP candidate
LDP             52.22% elected
DP              45.78% (incumbent)
HRP              2.00%

While the PR vote was
LDP-KP       47.42%
Center-Left  25.33%  (DP PLP SDP VPA)
Third Pole    14.36%  (ORA PJK NPR)
JCP             11.44%
NPB             0.74%
HRP             0.70%

Here LDP pulled in a good part of the Third Pole PR vote despite the DP incumbent advantage which gave it a comfortable victory despite Center-Left-JCP opposition unity. 

In 2017 the PR vote was
LDP-KP       44.26%
Center-Left 35.74% (CDP HP SDP)
Third Pole   11.18% (JRP)
JCP              8.29%
HRP             0.53%

In theory given the LDP-KP PR vote LDP is vulnerable.  But the reality is that in  滋賀(Shiga) the LDP always seems to pull in a lot of Third Pole PR vote which should add to the LDP incumbency advantage and hand the LDP a fairly simple and significant victory. 
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jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,151
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

« Reply #24 on: August 14, 2018, 07:13:11 AM »
« Edited: September 20, 2018, 05:59:57 PM by jaichind »

大阪(Osaka) which is a 4- member district is unique in the sense that given the strength of the JRP which grew out of a 大阪(Osaka) LDP regional splinter means that beyond LDP and KP winning a seat each the JRP will win a seat with the last seat a battle between JRP JCP, the main Center-Left candidate, and potentially a second LDP candidate.

In 2013 it was
JRP             28.83% elected
LDP            22.31% elected
KP              19.02% elected
JCP             12.79% elected  
DPJ              9.20%  (incumbent)
YP                4.31%
NPD             1.54%
JRP rebel      0.57%
JRP rebel      0.55%
Minor           0.48%
HRP             0.39%

While in the PR vote it was
LDP-KP        42.67%
Center-Left  10.41% (DPJ SDP PLP GP GW)
Third Pole    34.75% (JRP YP NPD)
JCP             11.92%
HRP              0.26%

Most the PR vote went to the candidates in their respective bloc.  Inability for JRP and YP to coordinate their votes lost YP a seat when there votes were there to take the 4th seat from JCP.

In 2016 with YP out of the picture ORA nominated 2 candidates and it was
LDP           20.41% elected  
ORA           19.50% elected  
KP             18.21% elected  (incumbent)
ORA           17.95% elected  
JCP            12.18%
DP              9.32%  (incumbent)
PJK             1.02%
NPB            0.98%
HRP            0.44%

While the PR vote was
LDP-KP       38.50%
Center-Left  12.14%  (DP PLP SDP VPA)
Third Pole    36.77%  (ORA PJK NPR)
JCP             11.37%
NPB             0.82%
HRP             0.39%

ORA was able to capture 2 seats.  There seems to be some tactical voting by Center-Left PR voters for both JCP and ORA since the DP candidate clearly was not in the running.  ORA mostly won 2 seats by being able to equally distribute its vote share between its two candidates.

In 2017 the PR vote was
LDP-KP       43.01%
Center-Left 20.69% (CDP HP SDP)
Third Pole   26.86% (JRP)
JCP              9.10%
HRP             0.34%

In 2019 it seems that the JRP vote base has shrunk such so that it is unlikely they can run 2 candidates and expect both to win.  The it comes down who will win the 4th seat, CDP or JCP.  Given the relative decline of JCP in 大阪(Osaka) it seems DCP will have a better shot.  Of course JRP will run 2 candidates anyway and if DPP also runs a candidate then the LDP might also run a 2nd candidate to take advantage of the opposition split.  More likely than not CDP will win the 4th seats but it really depends on the candidate nomination structure.
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