Magazine Nikkan Gendai which always has the most the most anti-LDP of projections came out with their final projection
District PR Total
LDP 36 18 54
KP 7 6 13
JRP 4 4 8
DPP 4 3 7
CDP 10 12 22
RS 0 2 2
SDP 0 1 1
JCP 5 4 9
OPPN 8 8 (Center-Left Opposition backed independents)
JCP at 5 district seats while JRP has 4 district seats would imply that JRP captures the 4th seat of 神奈川(Kanagawa) but JCP wins the 3rd seat of 北海道(Hokkaido) and 千葉(Chiba) over LDP. The 4th seat of 神奈川(Kanagawa) is viewed as a tossup between JCP and JRP but JCP winning the 3rd seats of 北海道(Hokkaido) and 千葉(Chiba) over LDP would be a upset. DPP at 4 district seats means that they will pull off an upset over LDP in 佐賀(Saga). Of course RS at 2 PR seats is also a shocking RS surge.
Which would produce
LDP+ 67
Center Left 40
Third Pole 8
JCP 9
And when added to the class of 2016 it gives us
LDP+ 138
Center Left 77
Third Pole 15
JCP 15
With anti-Constitutional revision bloc (Center Left + JCP) at 37.55% of the seats and easily blocking Constitutional version.
Or JCP can win in Kyoto or Osaka (incumbency advantage). Every pundit seems to believe that JCP will win at least 2 district seats, Tokyo and Saitama. I think Kanagawa is a toss-up while a 3rd seat in Chiba or Hokkaido is beyond reach.
As stated earlier, the worst scenario for Japanese left is both RS and SDP getting around 1.5%, therefore failing to win a PR seat. Meanwhile Yamamoto Taro placed two other PR candidates on top of the PR list. This is a bold move since RS party needs to win at least 5~6% of the PR vote to elect 3 PR seats.
