2019 Japan Unified Local Elections(April) and Upper House elections (July 21st)

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Not to sound like a conspiracy theorist, but I'm starting to wonder if there's some sort of unreported or inadequately-reported democratic backsliding on the level of voting rolls or freedom of the press or something going on in Japan. The repeated, clockwork-like LDP landslides at practically every level no matter what the Abe government is doing or has done lately are starting to get downright unsettling.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

I'm not at all concerned by the repeated LDP victories. I'm beginning to be concerned by the repeated LDP landslides.

I'm sure voter apathy (which in Japan does have to do with the lack of a convincing alternative) is a big part of it, too, since I know the last several Japanese elections have all had very low turnout.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

When I was learning about contemporary Japanese social and political issues in the final year of my undergrad program in Japanese language and literature, we were presented with this "three Ks" understanding of what it takes to win elections in Japan. I think the "three Ks" were 金 (kane "money"), 鞄 (kaban "bag", referring to briefcases full of endorsements, contacts among preexisting politicians, ready-made policy manifestos and stump speeches, etc.), and 看板 (kanban "sign", referring to billboards, placards, posters, etc. that serve the function in Japan that TV, radio, and web advertising serve in America). LDP mastery of the "three Ks" was presented to us as a necessary and sufficient explanation for the tenacity of the party's grip on the Japanese political scene, but I guess at the time (2013-2014) it just wasn't quite clear yet exactly how locked-in Abe's hold on power was going to end up being over the course of this decade. I think part of this could have been that the DPJ's relatively strong showing in rural areas in 2009 had obscured how badly the opposition kept getting screwed by the placement of the single-member seats in years that weren't 2009.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Opposition parties submit bill to legalize same-sex marriage in Japan

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/06/04/national/politics-diplomacy/opposition-parties-submit-bill-legalize-sex-marriage-japan/#.XPf3uBZKguU

It seems CDP-SDP-JCP (note: does not include DPP) submitted a bill to legalize gay marriage.  This will go nowhere of course but this seems like a scheme by the CDP and JCP to push up turnout among their supporters.  They figure any votes lost by this maneuver were lost and are going to turn out in the July 21st election to vote LDP anyway.   With LDP and Abe approval fairly high compared to last year it seems to counter the LDP advantage in a low turnout election the opposition, especially the CDP needs to push up turnout.   

This seems like a potentially good tactic to me. Japan's traditional homophobia isn't quite what it used to be and my impression is that Abenomics is still distinct enough from neoliberal orthodoxy that it's probably easier for the opposition to draw a clear distinction on this sort of thing than on the economy.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

The LDP incumbent in Oita won in 2007 for the first time and was defeated in a good year for his party.

This isn't a good year for his party by current standards.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Based on PR votes in so far Asahi has it at

       District     PR    Total
LDP     38        19      57
KP        7          7      14
JRP      5           5     10
PNHK   0           1       1
DPP      3          3       6
CDP      9         8      17
RS       0          2       2
SDP     0          1       1
JCP      3          4       7
OPPN   9                   9

NHK seems to refuse to call, understandably, PNHK to win a PR seat.  This seems like the final result unless something dramatic happens

Based on this I count a pro/anti-revision balance of 161-84 or 160-85 depending on PNHK's leanings (which I know nothing about)?