MN-GOV: Who wins the Republican Primary?

[JMT]

Pawlenty, but the race could be within single digits.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

We got a few polls and they showed Pawlenty up by landslides. While Johnson's people are more motivated, I don't see how it could be close.

Frankly wouldn't shock me if Pawlenty won every county. Johnson's best chances are probably Wright, Sherburne and maybe some random rural one with a really far right electorate.

[I’m not Stu]

Pawlenty

[Minnesota Mike]

Pawlenty in unimpressive fashion.

[IceSpear]

There's literally zero enthusiasm for Pawlenty, so an upset or unexpectedly close call seems possible.

[Progressive Pessimist]

The has-been.

[pops]

I think Jeff Johnson will win, but whoever wins it will be awfully close (most of my predictions have not had anyone at a majority of the vote).

Tim Pawlenty's poll numbers have been sliding big time since he announced. A June poll showed him +34%, in July it was +19%, and this morning's poll had him +9% with many undecided. The types of voters that show up to primaries (older and more conservative) will not vote for Pawlenty. He also has run a weak campaign and I think everyone knows by now that he can't win the race. The only thing helping him now is the state media... but that could hurt him, too. No one is enthusiastic about TPaw except donors. The GOP base loves Johnson. I don't see it in the cards for Tim. But we'll see, his LT pick is helpful to him too. Will be very interesting.

[Thomas D]

Pawlenty down big.  But it's VERY early.

[IceSpear]

There's literally zero enthusiasm for Pawlenty, so an upset or unexpectedly close call seems possible.

I will now accept my accolades. I was the first Johnson vote when the poll was at like 25-0 in favor of Pawlenty.

Also props to the R-MN guy. Lol at all the people that only voted Johnson once the votes started coming in, he only had like 4 votes earlier today.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Looks like Jeff Johnson has won

[CookieDamage]

Y'all are wrong yet again. Where do you guys get the proof and evidence for all these assertions and predictions? You guys talk like experienced pundits

[I’m not Stu]

Y'all are wrong yet again. Where do you guys get the proof and evidence for all these assertions and predictions? You guys talk like experienced pundits

Pawlenty had a huge lead in every poll.

[CookieDamage]

Y'all are wrong yet again. Where do you guys get the proof and evidence for all these assertions and predictions? You guys talk like experienced pundits

Pawlenty had a huge lead in every poll.

Fair, but the most recent one with him under 50 is alarming.

[IceSpear]

Y'all are wrong yet again. Where do you guys get the proof and evidence for all these assertions and predictions? You guys talk like experienced pundits

Pawlenty had a huge lead in every poll.

Indeed...polling isn't everything, especially polls months before the election. Our esteemed forumites who think Rosen is the worst candidate in American history and who think Heller is an unbeatable titan because he leads by 1 point in a July poll should keep this in mind.

[Xing]

Congrats, IceSpear! Also katman46 called it pretty well.

[Landslide Lyndon]

LOLenty.

[Continential]

Yeah MN will be likely Blue