MN-GOV: Who wins the Democratic Primary?

[JMT]

I think there was a poll about this a few months back, but I figured I'd make a new one as we are just a few days away from the primary. For some reason my gut says Erin Murphy will pull off an upset. She's endorsed by the DFL party, and I think there could be a shift in voters from Swanson to Murphy, because it seems like Swanson hasn't run a great campaign. But, I wouldn't be surprised if any of the three won.

[wesmoorenerd]

Swanson's campaign has been an absolute mess, so I'm pretty confident Walz takes it. Swanson might honestly come in third.

[Skill and Chance]

Almost surely Walz after the Swanson scandal.

[Politician]

Tim Walz, due to Lori Swanson's awful campaign.

[Free Bird]

Almost surely Walz after the Swanson scandal.

Both a scandal and awful campaign? Do tell.

[junior chįmp]

Hopefully Walz

[libertpaulian]

Walz.

Almost surely Walz after the Swanson scandal.

Both a scandal and awful campaign? Do tell.

Swanson was outed as a union-buster during her tenure as AG.

[Sestak]

BUILD THE WALZ

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Walz.

Almost surely Walz after the Swanson scandal.

Both a scandal and awful campaign? Do tell.

Swanson was outed as a union-buster during her tenure as AG.

That's not even the main scandal, it's despicable but is legal. But now she has former staffers alleging that ahe forced her staff to work on her campaign.

[Progressive Pessimist]

BUILD THE WALZ

[Zaybay]

BUILD THE WALZ

[Pandaguineapig]

How extensive is early voting in Minnesota? Swanson and Ellison may have built-in leads that will be difficult to overcome. I think Walz probably wins the gov primary but I still believe Ellison will win the ag primary running away

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

How extensive is early voting in Minnesota? Swanson and Ellison may have built-in leads that will be difficult to overcome. I think Walz probably wins the gov primary but I still believe Ellison will win the ag primary running away

Minnesota didn't even start early voting until 2016 and doesn't have much of an early voting tradition. Reports are that its up, but it'll be a pretty small portion of the total vote. Minnesota actually allows revotes too. And Swanson never had a huge lead in polls, there was always high undecideds (I'm willing to bet undecideds hadn't early voted), and early voting is more prolific in urban areas where it's much easier, which would benefit Murphy and Walz. So I can't see Swanson having an impossible to overcome lead. Ellison on the other hand is likely.

This article says that early voting is up, but is still only 31,829 ballots requested and 16,203 votes have already been cast (also that's total, not just for the DFL.) There was for comparison over 440k votes cast in the 2010 DFL Gubernatorial primary, and turnout is expected to be way up. It's almost three weeks old, but that's after the Nolan scandal breaking and when Swanson's lead had already heavily eroded. Ellison probably had a pretty strong lead...but not unbeatable if this scandal turned out to have legs, which it's starting to appear it doesn't.

[Not Me, Us]

BUILD THE WALZ

[pops]

If you had asked me a week or so ago, I would've put these percentages down:
Swanson - 41%
Walz - 38%
Murphy - 19%
Others - 2%

Now though...

Walz - 43%
Swanson - 34%
Murphy - 21%
Others - 2%

If Swanson pulls it off though, that will be really bad for the DFL. She has the worst general election numbers of any candidate and could honestly have lost to Jeff Johnson even before this.

[Val]

All Lori Swanson has been doing is hiding and sending out negative attack ads. I'm personally voting for Murphy but Walz will probably be the nominee

[Mycool]

I still think that any DFL candidate will be the favorite for the general, but Swanson seems to be determined to light any goodwill she had on fire, so I’d take anyone over her at this point. It’s really disappointing, as I really thought Swanson had a future in Minnesota, and hoped she would have filled the seat Tina Smith ended up taking (who has done an infinitely better job than Swanson would have).

[IceSpear]

I'm worried the anti-Swanson vote gets split and she manages to sneak by.

[wesmoorenerd]

I'm worried the anti-Swanson vote gets split and she manages to sneak by.

Yeah. I was wondering if any state might top Hawaii and Illinois for nominating the worst slate of Democratic candidates possible, and it turns out Minnesota might just do that today with Swanson, Ellison, and some of the House candidates

If Swanson, Ellison, and Michelle Lee (in MN-08) all win I think it's safe to say Minnesota did a hat trick of awful.

[Pollster]

The lack of internal polling released from this primary, especially in comparison to the number of internal polls coming from Democrats this cycle in general, leads me to believe that nobody has particularly good poll numbers and even the campaigns are incredibly uncertain of what is going to happen tonight.  This will be one of the more interesting primaries.

[Zaybay]

Im currently thinking Walz, but anything is possible at this point. It will be important ot see how the rurals are voting. If they are going with Walz, then he is the winner, but if Swansons their choice, then it will be close.

Also, guys, if Ellison is cleared of charges, then hes not a bad candidate. If he is not exonerated, then he is a bad choice. If he is exonerated, then I doubt we will even remember these charges down the line, but if hes not, he either drops out, or wins by a tiny margin. The Rs didnt put up any good candidates, so this race favors the D with anyone, especially with, hopefully, Walz at the top.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Turnout is high. I was voter #207 right before noon.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I think Swanson edges out.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Probably Walz, but I predict a pretty close race between all three of them, something like 37%-33%-30%.

[Ronnie]

I'm going to guess that Swanson pulls it out in a squeaker.  She'll win like 40 percent to Walz's 39.5 percent, and the rest to the field.