MD-Gonzales Research: Hogan +16

[Skye]

Why is everyone taking this poll seriously? It’s hot garbage! Doesn’t even hold up. Reminds me a bit of the gravis Peterson poll, the crossroads are so screwy. But I guess it does confirm to atlas that their moderate titan is safe, so I guess that’s all that matters.

What. Hogan has led Jealous in every single poll taken of the race by double digits (the exception being Jealous's own internal, lmao). But yeah, don't worry, it's us that are in the wrong. You know, for someone that likes to accuse other people of seeing what they want to see, you are probably worse in that regard.

[Skye]

Why is everyone taking this poll seriously? It’s hot garbage! Doesn’t even hold up. Reminds me a bit of the gravis Peterson poll, the crossroads are so screwy. But I guess it does confirm to atlas that their moderate titan is safe, so I guess that’s all that matters.

What. Hogan has led Jealous in every single poll taken of the race by double digits (the exception being Jealous's own internal, lmao). But yeah, don't worry, it's us that are in the wrong. You know, for someone that likes to accuse other people of seeing what they want to see, you are probably worse in that regard.

yeah, cause no race has ever shifted by double digits in the last couple months. No race ever. Things are permanent. The wave doesnt exist in MD, and Hogan is Safe R.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maryland_gubernatorial_election,_2014

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Hampshire_gubernatorial_election,_2014

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Missouri,_2016

And these are just the ones I can think off the top of my head

I mean, yeah, its good to lead in double digits in polling months before the election, but Hogan's lead is tenuous and not sustainable. The wave doesnt allow for it. What we are likely to see, as with all other races with a popular incumbent in a safe state that belongs to the oppo party, is a move towards a closer race near the end. Waves do make an impact.

Hogan may not be safe, because Maryland democrats have a very high floor and it's a Dem wave year. We all get that. Despite what you claim, that Atlas believes Hogan is Safe, check the predictions page and you'll see that the aggregate rating for this race is Lean R. And yes, the race may shift by double digits, and that will probably be the natural course of the race, after all it'd take a specially bad kind of Democrat and a whole different environment to manage to get less than 40% in freaking Maryland.