MD-Gonzales Research: Hogan +16

[Zaybay]

Whew, this poll reeks!

Not only does it have AA voters moving to Hogan en masse, but it shows that Jealous somehow retains the white liberal swing voters, something that would actually secure his victory. If the AA numbers are wrong(they are rather inflexible, so this scenario is more likely), then this race is actually much closer, since Jealous is holding the voters he needs. If the white numbers are the problem(less likely), then Jealous is losing by more than 20 points.

Either way, a faulty poll, worse than the internal.

Edit:my current theory for why he’s doing well in Montgomery is because white Democrats tend to be more liberal, which would explain why the more progressive dem Jealous would be winning them by a larger margin than the weak and centrist Brown. The AA numbers, however, make little sense, an R doesn’t go from a 60 point defict in one of the most populated counties to a 10 point one, It’s impossible.

[Zaybay]

Actually, upon further inspection, I don't buy this poll for a second.

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I'm from Montgomery County. I know the area well enough to say that there's absolutely no chance Jealous has a 35 point lead in Montgomery while only leading in PG by 13 and Baltimore by 6. The Montgomery number sounds incredibly optimistic for Jealous while the PG and Baltimore numbers sound the opposite. Back in 2014, Anthony Brown won PG by 70 points and Baltimore by 54, while only winning Montgomery by 25. Either the numbers in the poll are wrong or that's an absolutely remarkable reversal. You don't just go from losing a county by 70 points to losing it by 13 and somehow, simultaneously, go from losing a different county by 25 to losing it by 35. That's just illogical.

Those numbers in mostly black, inflexible PG and Baltimore aren't just surprising, they're downright unbelievable. Same with the numbers in moderate white Montgomery, which Jealous is a fairly bad fit for.

Isn't it possible the errors on each side balance out for this number to be accurate?

Well, no. Jealous going 60 points down compared to Brown in one of the most populous counties but increasing by 10 in another doesn’t balance out. If it did, then this poll would have Hogan leading by mid-high single digits, if we are to assume numbers that we have seen in other polling for this race.

[Zaybay]

Why is everyone taking this poll seriously? It’s hot garbage! Doesn’t even hold up. Reminds me a bit of the gravis Peterson poll, the crossroads are so screwy. But I guess it does confirm to atlas that their moderate titan is safe, so I guess that’s all that matters.

[Zaybay]

Why is everyone taking this poll seriously? It’s hot garbage! Doesn’t even hold up. Reminds me a bit of the gravis Peterson poll, the crossroads are so screwy. But I guess it does confirm to atlas that their moderate titan is safe, so I guess that’s all that matters.

What. Hogan has led Jealous in every single poll taken of the race by double digits (the exception being Jealous's own internal, lmao). But yeah, don't worry, it's us that are in the wrong. You know, for someone that likes to accuse other people of seeing what they want to see, you are probably worse in that regard.

yeah, cause no race has ever shifted by double digits in the last couple months. No race ever. Things are permanent. The wave doesnt exist in MD, and Hogan is Safe R.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maryland_gubernatorial_election,_2014

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Hampshire_gubernatorial_election,_2014

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Missouri,_2016

And these are just the ones I can think off the top of my head

I mean, yeah, its good to lead in double digits in polling months before the election, but Hogan's lead is tenuous and not sustainable. The wave doesnt allow for it. What we are likely to see, as with all other races with a popular incumbent in a safe state that belongs to the oppo party, is a move towards a closer race near the end. Waves do make an impact.

But yeah, this poll really sucks. It weirdly gives Jealous an increased share of the white vote that actually secures his victory. As in, if he won this percentage, it would be governor Jealous. But then he loses almost 30-40% of the Black vote to Hogan, which creates the margin in this poll. Thats unrealistic.

[Zaybay]

Why is everyone taking this poll seriously? It’s hot garbage! Doesn’t even hold up. Reminds me a bit of the gravis Peterson poll, the crossroads are so screwy. But I guess it does confirm to atlas that their moderate titan is safe, so I guess that’s all that matters.

What. Hogan has led Jealous in every single poll taken of the race by double digits (the exception being Jealous's own internal, lmao). But yeah, don't worry, it's us that are in the wrong. You know, for someone that likes to accuse other people of seeing what they want to see, you are probably worse in that regard.

yeah, cause no race has ever shifted by double digits in the last couple months. No race ever. Things are permanent. The wave doesnt exist in MD, and Hogan is Safe R.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maryland_gubernatorial_election,_2014

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Hampshire_gubernatorial_election,_2014

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Missouri,_2016

And these are just the ones I can think off the top of my head

I mean, yeah, its good to lead in double digits in polling months before the election, but Hogan's lead is tenuous and not sustainable. The wave doesnt allow for it. What we are likely to see, as with all other races with a popular incumbent in a safe state that belongs to the oppo party, is a move towards a closer race near the end. Waves do make an impact.

Hogan may not be safe, because Maryland democrats have a very high floor and it's a Dem wave year. We all get that. Despite what you claim, that Atlas believes Hogan is Safe, check the predictions page and you'll see that the aggregate rating for this race is Lean R. And yes, the race may shift by double digits, and that will probably be the natural course of the race, after all it'd take a specially bad kind of Democrat and a whole different environment to manage to get less than 40% in freaking Maryland.

Yeah, I guess its true that in predictions, people overall rate this lean R. I just wanted to dispel the fact that many people were claiming that this race wont shift, and Hogan will stay in the double digits, which is, frankly, impossible in this environment. Some were even wondering how Hogan's coattails would effect state races, assuming he won by 20 points.

Anyway, I still think this poll is a dumpster fire, nothing makes any sense, and it seems complete garbage. Are the white numbers true? Unlikely, at least at this point in the race. Are the AA numbers true? Definitely no. This poll just reeks.

[Zaybay]

So, I tried to find the crosstabs for this poll, because of its rather sketchy numbers in the counties, but it doesnt seem like I can find them anywhere. So, I decided to estimate the race numbers based on the poll's results, and past elections.

Overall: The ethnicity split is like this:

White: R 60/40

Black: D 55/45

Theres problem 1 with this poll.

Second problem is that Hogan has a 71% approval rating, which is almost the same amount as Charlie's highest ever rating, 74%.  No other approval poll for Hogan has found such a result. morning consult, which, overall, exaggerates popularity and unpopularity on both sides due to methodology, only found him at 68%. The only poll to give him a similar amount was in 2016 by.....Gonzales Research. Huh.
 Another problem with this poll.

Third of all, if Jealous is getting the White vote at 40%, then he has already won the election. Hogan needs it to be around a 65/35 split, due to turnout numbers and the fact that AAs usually vote for the D by massive margins. The fact that Jealous, an AA, is only getting 55%, according to my estimates, which could be wrong, but they didnt release any crosstabs, of the Black vote is preposterous, and if that number were to get above 80%, then Jealous wins.

And i also dont know how much of each political group was surveyed. This election will likely have an increased amount of D voters compared to 2014, and I dont know if that was accounted for in this poll. In fact, it seems that, due to the large swings in the rurals and the suburbs, they may have over-sampled Rs.

Overall, I wasted my time with this poll. Why cant Monmouth do one for this race? Suffolk did one for MA(which found Baker at 50%, BTW, compared to the other polls with him at 60%), why cant a good pollster do one for MD?

Edit: and if anyone can find the crosstabs, that would be greatly appreciated

[Zaybay]

So, I tried to find the crosstabs for this poll, because of its rather sketchy numbers in the counties, but it doesnt seem like I can find them anywhere. So, I decided to estimate the race numbers based on the poll's results, and past elections.

Overall: The ethnicity split is like this:

White: R 60/40

Black: D 55/45

Here's a link to a pdf of the crosstabs: https://htv-prod-media.s3.amazonaws.com/files/gonzales-maryland-poll-august-2018-1534219336.pdf

I did some back of the envelope extrapolating from the crosstabs just for fun because let's be honest - Ben Jealous is going to do better than just 53% among blacks and 55% among Democrats.

So let's say Jealous gets 90% of the African American vote and limits Hogan to just 5% (unlikely given Hogan's popularity but something other Democrats accomplish regularly). The race would then be tied 46-46%, all other aspects of the poll remaining the same.

Also suppose Jealous earns the same percentage of Democrats as Hogan does among Republicans (92.4%), all other aspects of the poll remaining the same... Jealous runs away with it, 57-38%. Why? Because self-identified Democrats outnumber Republicans 2:1 in this poll.

In fact, Jealous would only need 75% of the Democratic vote, and would need to limit Hogan to 21% of Democrats, to break even with Hogan overall at 47-47%.

I personally think this race is likely Republican. But you can see how Jealous has room to grow.

Thanks for getting these crosstabs for me! I couldnt find them anywhere. Anyway, popular Rs in the North East usually get a maximum of 15% of the Black vote. This was done by Bill Weld.  Massachusetts most recent popular election with Scott Brown in 2012 got 14%.

And yeah, getting only a bit more than 1/2 of AAs and 56% of Democrats is completely unrealistic.