Victorian State Election, 2018

[AustralianSwingVoter]

On the 24th of November Victorians will go to the polls to decide whether to re-elect Daniel Andrew's Labor government, or to elect Matthew Guy and the Liberals as a new government.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Some Background:

The 1999 election caused most of what is unique about current Victorian politics, and set in the Labor advantage.
In 1999 Kennet blew a giant lead mainly by insulting anyone who'd listen, however more importantly Steve Bracks focused his campaign in the Country, which felt forgotten by the city-centric Kennet government. In the election Labor basically stayed still in the city, gaining only the 2 most marginal seats on small swings. Meanwhile a far different story occurred in the Country. Labor gained 10 seats on large swings, seats which had been Liberal for generations.
And, more importantly, those gains stuck. In 2002 Labor consolidated their position in a landslide, gaining 20 seats, almost all in Melbourne, but more importantly gaining solid swings in the rural seats they flipped in 1999.
In 2010, the Liberals barely squeaked over the line by taking back the ancestral Liberal seats in the Eastern suburbs Labor won in 2002, and taking back the 4 Frankston line seats, giving them the barest of majorities. However Labor only lost 1 of their 10 rural seats (Seymour).
Throughout the 57th Parliament the Liberals experienced great problems with their wafer thin majority, reaching a crescendo with member for Frankston Geoff Shaw resigning from the Liberal party to sit as an Independent. After experiencing much the same problems faced by Gillard, including eventually replacing Ted Baillieu with Denis Napthine, the Liberals run-up to the 2014 election was lacklustre.
Prior to the 2014 election a redistribution was conducted. The redistribution was a great boost to the Liberals, flipping 5 of the 9 remaining rural Labor seats notionally Liberal. However, only in Ripon were the Liberals able to translate a notional gain into victory, with Labor receiving substantial swings in the other four (Bellarine, Monbulk, Wendouree and Yan Yean).

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Something interesting in Victoria is the disparity between the Liberals and Labor.
At every one of the 12 elections since 1973 Labor has one at least one seat with a 2PP over 70%
Meanwhile in the same time, at only 6/12 elections has the Liberals won a seat with over 70% 2PP, and bar 1976 and the 1992 landslide it has occurred in only 3 electorates twice in Swan Hill ('79, '82) once in Benambra ('88), and since the 1992 Kennet landslide it has occurred only once, in Malvern in 2010.
What this means is that the Liberals have a far more efficient vote, winning safe seats on 60-66%, meanwhile Labor wins their safe seats on 65-75%.
However the Liberals vote efficiency is mostly negated by the Nationals, who rarely win a seat on anything below 65%, winning most seats in the 70s.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The Greens will be targeting 3 seats, all currently held by Labor; Richmond (ALP 1.9% v GRN), Brunswick   (ALP 2.2% v GRN) and Albert Park (ALP 3.0% v LIB). In addition they shall most likely hold onto all three of their current seats; Prahran (GRN 0.4% v LIB), Melbourne (GRN 2.4% v ALP) and Northcote (GRN 5.6% v ALP)

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Both Labor and the Liberals have been going through scandals:
Liberal Leader Matthew Guy had a Lobster dinner with a Mafia boss and IBAC continue to investigate his alleged links to the mobs.
Meanwhile the Andrews government has been going through the redshirts scandal, which some papers have dubbed "Rorts for Votes", in which parliament paid grassroots activists as "casual electorate officers".

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Poll added

[Mazda]

Is it possible to make educated guesses as to the make-up of the Legislative Council crossbench, or nah? I'd been reading that the Bernardi party were putting a load of resources into holding Carling-Jenkins' seat (until she quit), but it strikes me as a bit of a waste of money when the only way to win that fifth seat is to get 0.16% and cross your fingers for transfers.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Is it possible to make educated guesses as to the make-up of the Legislative Council crossbench, or nah? I'd been reading that the Bernardi party were putting a load of resources into holding Carling-Jenkins' seat (until she quit), but it strikes me as a bit of a waste of money when the only way to win that fifth seat is to get 0.16% and cross your fingers for transfers.

Remember Victoria still has group voting tickets. You can only number 1 above the line, and the party decides what to do with your vote. That is how minor parties get into upper houses, and why GVTs have been abolished in the Senate and in SA.
Carling-Jenkins can quite easily win, all she needs is good backroom preference deals.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Yesterday Matthew Guy vowed to spend $38 Million to make streets less scary. Yes, this is real.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Far more importantly, yesterday the Labor government released an estimated 80,000 pages of documents in 32 boxes (see image) relating to the botched rezoning of farmland at Ventnor on Phillip Island.
Back in September 2011 Mr. Guy, in his role as Planning Minister, used his special ministerial powers to rezone 24 hectares of farmland, overriding a decision of the Bass Coast Council. Mr Guy decided to intervene despite advice against it made by two expert planning panels, the minister’s own department and lawyers, not to mention the unanimous position of the local council.
The Age would reveal that the land was owned by a Liberal donor who stood to make millions from the rezoning.  The rezoning was vehemently opposed by Phillip Island residents, and even celebrity visitor Miley Cyrus chimed in opposing the rezoning (her boyfriend at the time Liam Hemsworth was from the area and still had family living there.). Days later Mr Guy would humiliatingly backflip on the rezoning, and the Liberal donor who owned the property then promptly sued for financial damages as a result of the backflip. In 2013 the case was settled out of court, and although the settlement was never released it was rumoured to be around $3 million dollars of taxpayers money.
The documents reveal that the full cost of the settlement was $3.5 million dollars of taxpayers money. Far more shockingly, the documents revealed that Mr Guy ordered the settlement, despite repeated legal advice from the department's lawyers that the case was extremely weak and there was no grounds for the damages claim.
Despite this, Mr Guy is quoted as saying in hand written notes “This may be winnable @ law but this is a political fight and it is unwinnable,” “This can’t go to court. I shall not be in the job if it goes to [court].” “I’m v. good in [question] time. But Q time is v diff [different] forum to court of law!”. According to departmental notes “[The minister] was concerned about having to give evidence before the judge,”.
Indeed, the governments case was so strong the famously skittish Victorian government insurer (the Victorian Managed Insurance Authority) would only indemnify Mr Guy for a maximum of $250,000 for the Ventnor case, plus legal costs.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Over the next 7 weeks I shall be posting short guides for each and every one of the 88 electorates and 8 upper house seats.
I do hope that these guides shall provide unto you all a greater insight into Victorian politics, and the current election specifically.

[Polkergeist]

Right on cue after ASV's post.....a poll!

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/reachtel-poll-andrews-edges-clear-of-guy-as-state-election-draws-near-20181007-p5089r.html?platform=hootsuite

Labor 52%-48% after preferences. No swing since 2014 election.

Primaries once the undecideds are distributed. Swing since 2014 in brackets.

Labor          37.6%  (-0.5%)
Lib/Nat        39.4%  (-2.6%)
Greens        10.9%  (-0.3%)
Others         12.1%  (+3.4%)

[Lachi]

Newspoll released a poll yesterday:

2PP: 54 LAB, 46 L/NP

Primary:
LAB: 41
L/NP: 39
GRN: 11

Also, the writs have been dropped for the election, and the 58th Victorian Parliament has been officially dissolved as of 6 PM yesterday

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Over the next 7 weeks I shall be posting short guides for each and every one of the 88 electorates and 8 upper house seats.
I do hope that these guides shall provide unto you all a greater insight into Victorian politics, and the current election specifically.

Totally not regretting this commitment.

[Mazda]

Over the next 7 weeks I shall be posting short guides for each and every one of the 88 electorates and 8 upper house seats.
I do hope that these guides shall provide unto you all a greater insight into Victorian politics, and the current election specifically.

Totally not regretting this commitment.

I, personally, would be happy with just the marginal seats and the Wentworth/Indi types where something interesting might happen.

[Lachi]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1XxCcTtO24ME23DhU_gWs7E2y9bPUrOFqVR0w7mwOh5E/edit#gid=0

The full list of candidates for this election.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Tragic that Fiona Patten's party is no longer just called "Sex", and is now running with the very boring and Reddity name "Reason". That led to the very funny situation last election, when an atlas user had to censor the name of the party as if the word "sex" was an extreme expletive.

Who looks best in the micros in terms of preference deals?

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Tragic that Fiona Patten's party is no longer just called "Sex", and is now running with the very boring and Reddity name "Reason". That led to the very funny situation last election, when an atlas user had to censor the name of the party as if the word "sex" was an extreme expletive.

Who looks best in the micros in terms of preference deals?

Victoria elects the upper house through 8 seats each electing 5 members, rather than electing all 40 members from one statewide electorate.
Here's my assessment for each seat:
Eastern Metropolitan - Micro parties don't stand a chance.
Eastern Victoria - Shooters Fishers and Farmers currently hold a seat. They are probably the underdogs, as the Coalition looks likely to take their seat.
Northern Metropolitan - Fiona Patten looks to be in a tight contest with the Socialists for the final seat.
Northern Victoria - Shooters Fishers and Farmers currently hold a seat. They are probably the underdogs, as the Coalition looks likely to take their seat.
South Eastern Metropolitan - Micro parties don't stand a chance.
Southern Metropolitan - Micro parties don't stand a chance.
Western Metropolitan - Conservatives (Cory Bernadi's gang) currently hold a seat. They look likely to lose their seat to one of the majors.
Western Victoria - Local Jobs currently holds a seat. This seat is a mess, and could go to just about anybody other than Labor, who have two solid seats here.

Of course, this is all dependent on the preference tickets each party lodges.

[Mazda]

Tragic that Fiona Patten's party is no longer just called "Sex", and is now running with the very boring and Reddity name "Reason". That led to the very funny situation last election, when an atlas user had to censor the name of the party as if the word "sex" was an extreme expletive.

Who looks best in the micros in terms of preference deals?

Victoria elects the upper house through 8 seats each electing 5 members, rather than electing all 40 members from one statewide electorate.
Here's my assessment for each seat:
Eastern Metropolitan - Micro parties don't stand a chance.
Eastern Victoria - Shooters Fishers and Farmers currently hold a seat. They are probably the underdogs, as the Coalition looks likely to take their seat.
Northern Metropolitan - Fiona Patten looks to be in a tight contest with the Socialists for the final seat.
Northern Victoria - Shooters Fishers and Farmers currently hold a seat. They are probably the underdogs, as the Coalition looks likely to take their seat.
South Eastern Metropolitan - Micro parties don't stand a chance.
Southern Metropolitan - Micro parties don't stand a chance.
Western Metropolitan - Conservatives (Cory Bernadi's gang) currently hold a seat. They look likely to lose their seat to one of the majors.
Western Victoria - Local Jobs currently holds a seat. This seat is a mess, and could go to just about anybody other than Labor, who have two solid seats here.

Of course, this is all dependent on the preference tickets each party lodges.

The bolded is mistaken, btw. Rachel Carling-Jenkins was elected from the Democratic Labour Party (essentially as a random fluke of preferencing) and then defected to the Conservatives, so really it's a notional DLP seat. In any case, Carling-Jenkins left the Conservatives a few months ago and is standing as an Independent for the lower house. Any idea of incumbency for the Conservatives would be... nebulous at best.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Tragic that Fiona Patten's party is no longer just called "Sex", and is now running with the very boring and Reddity name "Reason". That led to the very funny situation last election, when an atlas user had to censor the name of the party as if the word "sex" was an extreme expletive.

Who looks best in the micros in terms of preference deals?

Victoria elects the upper house through 8 seats each electing 5 members, rather than electing all 40 members from one statewide electorate.
Here's my assessment for each seat:
Eastern Metropolitan - Micro parties don't stand a chance.
Eastern Victoria - Shooters Fishers and Farmers currently hold a seat. They are probably the underdogs, as the Coalition looks likely to take their seat.
Northern Metropolitan - Fiona Patten looks to be in a tight contest with the Socialists for the final seat.
Northern Victoria - Shooters Fishers and Farmers currently hold a seat. They are probably the underdogs, as the Coalition looks likely to take their seat.
South Eastern Metropolitan - Micro parties don't stand a chance.
Southern Metropolitan - Micro parties don't stand a chance.
Western Metropolitan - Conservatives (Cory Bernadi's gang) currently hold a seat. They look likely to lose their seat to one of the majors.
Western Victoria - Local Jobs currently holds a seat. This seat is a mess, and could go to just about anybody other than Labor, who have two solid seats here.

Of course, this is all dependent on the preference tickets each party lodges.

The bolded is mistaken, btw. Rachel Carling-Jenkins was elected from the Democratic Labour Party (essentially as a random fluke of preferencing) and then defected to the Conservatives, so really it's a notional DLP seat. In any case, Carling-Jenkins left the Conservatives a few months ago and is standing as an Independent for the lower house. Any idea of incumbency for the Conservatives would be... nebulous at best.

Sorry, I can't keep up with the madness of micro parties.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Do you want to weep at how nebulous Australian Democracy is?
Try Antony Green's upper house calculators! You'll marvel at how easy it is to elect someone from just 0.3% first preferences!
www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic-election-2018/guide/calculator-upper/

[AustralianSwingVoter]

This kind man has crunched the numbers and has figured out who the preference whisperers are pushing in each region. Also, something important to note, all of these people are preferenced ahead of the Greens. Every last one of them.
East Metro – Rod Barton of the Transport Matters Party
East Vic – Vern Hughes of the Aussie Battler Party
North Metro – Multiple strong minors, but Carmel Dagiandis of Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party
North Vic – Tim Quilty of the Liberal Democrats
South East Metro – Ali Khan of the Transport Matters Party
South Metro – Clifford Hayes of Sustainable Australia
West Metro – Stuart O’Nell of the Aussie Battler Party
West Vic – Stuart Grimley of Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party

[Knives]

Liberal candidate for marginal Yan Yean gone.

[PSOL]

Does the Victorian Socialists stand a chance of doing well other than in the North Metropolitan district. Not in the way of winning, but as an upset or a third competitor.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Does the Victorian Socialists stand a chance of doing well other than in the North Metropolitan district. Not in the way of winning, but as an upset or a third competitor.

No chance. The preferences all flow against them. It is impossible for them to win.
Also, you seem to forget that in North Metro there are 5 seats up, not one.