Victorian State Election, 2018

[PSOL]

Does the Victorian Socialists stand a chance of doing well other than in the North Metropolitan district. Not in the way of winning, but as an upset or a third competitor.

No chance. The preferences all flow against them. It is impossible for them to win.
Also, you seem to forget that in North Metro there are 5 seats up, not one.

I meant in overall momentum in Victoria. It seems like they have a strong chance in one seat in the North Metro, what about the other seats in other districts in the state?

And why is the party possibly going to win in the last N. Metro seat?

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Does the Victorian Socialists stand a chance of doing well other than in the North Metropolitan district. Not in the way of winning, but as an upset or a third competitor.

No chance. The preferences all flow against them. It is impossible for them to win.
Also, you seem to forget that in North Metro there are 5 seats up, not one.

I meant in overall momentum in Victoria. It seems like they have a strong chance in one seat in the North Metro, what about the other seats in other districts in the state?

And why is the party possibly going to win in the last N. Metro seat?

Let me repeat myself, they have no chance whatsoever in N. Metro.
Victoria still uses Group Voting Ticket. That means you just vote 1 for a party and they decide what to do with your preferences. Only the Greens are preferencing the Socialists, and they won't be relevant (too high vote to be eliminated early.)

Preference whisperers have decided who will get the 5th seat, and the have settled on Derryn Hinch's Justice Party. They only need about 0.15% first preferences, and transfers will do the rest.

And yes, the system isn't remotely fair allowing a party winning less than half a percent of the vote to get a seat.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Oh yeah, just remembered that something calling itself "vote 1 for local jobs" won a seat last election. Does it still exist?

Preference deals are really one of the most hilariously demented electoral systems in the democratic world, tragic that they were eliminated federally.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Oh yeah, just remembered that something calling itself "vote 1 for local jobs" won a seat last election. Does it still exist?

Preference deals are really one of the most hilariously demented electoral systems in the democratic world, tragic that they were eliminated federally.

Nope, though it's going to be even worse.
There's about 3 parties which only need about 0.3% and they're guaranteed a seat.

[morgieb]

Oh yeah, just remembered that something calling itself "vote 1 for local jobs" won a seat last election. Does it still exist?

Preference deals are really one of the most hilariously demented electoral systems in the democratic world, tragic that they were eliminated federally.

He’s running in the Lower House this time around.

Hopefully Victoria piss off the preferencing cartel next session, I see no good arguments as to why it exists.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

POLLS ARE CLOSED

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The only link you need.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sSTH5sBWcVQ

[AustralianSwingVoter]

First Numbers are in. They're from Gippsland South.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

ANTONY GREEN HAS CALLED IT FOR LABOR
LABOR WILL FORM A MAJORITY GOVERNMENT

[AustralianSwingVoter]

that feeling when the Liberals are doing better in Ripon than Sandringham.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

that feeling when the Liberals are doing better in Ripon than Sandringham.

That feeling when the Liberals are "hoping to win Bayswater"

[AustralianSwingVoter]

that feeling when the Liberals are doing better in Ripon than Sandringham.

That feeling when the Liberals are "hoping to win Bayswater"

That feeling when the Labor 2PP in Frankston is 62.5%.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

that feeling when the Liberals are doing better in Ripon than Sandringham.

That feeling when the Liberals are "hoping to win Bayswater"

That feeling when the Labor 2PP in Frankston is 62.5%.

That feeling when "Labor is leading in Hawthorn".

[AustralianSwingVoter]

that feeling when the Liberals are doing better in Ripon than Sandringham.

That feeling when the Liberals are "hoping to win Bayswater"

That feeling when the Labor 2PP in Frankston is 62.5%.

That feeling when "Labor is leading in Hawthorn".

That feeling when Mornington is closer than Eildon.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

that feeling when the Liberals are doing better in Ripon than Sandringham.

That feeling when the Liberals are "hoping to win Bayswater"

That feeling when the Labor 2PP in Frankston is 62.5%.

That feeling when "Labor is leading in Hawthorn".

That feeling when Mornington is closer than Eildon.

tfw when you're certain Labor has gained Nepean, but Ripon is too close to call.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

MATTHEW GUY HAS CONCEDED

[AustralianSwingVoter]

DANIEL ANDREWS HAS DECLARED VICTORY

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

With about a third of the vote in (so it will probably change, although ASV probably can tell for real) and the upper house results are an amusing shambles, with the Greens being wiped out and assorted micros (the "Aussie battlers" party, Animal Justice, the Lib Dems, Sustainable Australia, that random party that is actually a taxi driver special interest group) getting 10 seats

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Holy Christ - the nationals have fallen into fourth place in Morwell with a 34 percent swing against them. Right now the result is too close to call between Labor and the incumbent ex-nat independent. This is a coal mining town in the middle of Gippsland, which received notoriety for an enormous coal fire a few years back.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Now Northern Met region is showing Fiona Patton winning, and no Liberals at all.

Please can an Australian explain to me what the appeal of the Derryn Hinch party is?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Looks like the council is at:

Labor: 19 (+5)
Liberal: 9 (-5)
Derryn Hinch Justice 4
Transport Matters 2
National 1 (-1)
Greens 1 (-4)
Sustainable 1
Animal Justice 1
Aussie Battler 1
Lib Dems 1

Astonishingly good results from Hinch there (worth noting he has a close relationship with microparties Don and "preference whisperer" Glenn Druery) - for some reason the left parties (Labor, Greens, AJP, Reason) all generously lended their preferences to his gaggle over each other, which could have hurt their total.

Labor seems to have lost a bit with postal votes - they're behind in seats like Brighton and Croydon.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

So on the LC, the only one of the 8 regions where the result is in doubt is Northern Metro.
In North Metro it all depends on whether the Greens can reach a quota before the Socialists are eliminated. If not, then the result is a clear 3 Lab, 1 Grn, 1 Hinch. If so, then there's a whole lot of nail-biting as there's a whole host of very close counts right at the end.

[Intell]

So what happened?

[AustralianSwingVoter]

We're gaining a lot of votes on earlies.
Brighton, Hawthorn, Sandringham, Caulfield, Hastings, Bayswater, Croydon and Forest Hill (I think I got all of them) have all flipped back to the Liberals. In addition, Ripon is all but tied, and should probably flip once more earlies come in. Nepean and Mt Waverley are also both looking dicey for Labor, and if the earlies are strong enough could also flip back.
In addition there are a few messed up seats due to independents that we've all ignored. Melton, Pascoe Vale, Geelong and Werribee are all potentially dicey for Labor, as are Benambra, South West Coast and Ovens Valley for the Coalition.

In the upper house, only about 40% of votes are counted, and given what has happened in the Assembly, we can safely assume the remaining votes will be more favourable for the Coalition.
Currently the Coalition has 10 seats, however that is all but guaranteed to rise to 13. A 2nd seat in North and West Victoria and a seat in North Metro will all flip to us on earlies, as we are very close in all of them.
The Greens have been royally screwed by Labor, and only have a chance at holding onto the seat of their leader Samantha Ratnam in North Metro.
Labor is currently on 19, but that will fall back to 18 as the 3rd seat in North Metro is already dicey and how favourable earlies are for the Libs. the other 18 seats are pretty safe, and it looks unlikely that their final total could be anything other than 18.

So in short, this isn't actually looking like a landslide. Labor currently leads in 55 seats, and that number will probably fall once more early votes are counted. Although election night was riveting, all the surprise gains have flipped back as the postal votes have came in. And only 70% counted it seems certain Labor's total will fall further. We must remember this as a lesson for future elections about jumping the gun on election night, especially as early voting, pre-poll and postal voting are all becoming more and more common place.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Love the Aussie Battler Party.

Hopefully they get some momentum.

https://www.aussiebattlerparty.com.au/

"ABP was created to represent all those who are fed up with politicians wasting our time and money. Politicians who have forgotten what it is like to live in mainstream society, dealing with big companies, government departments and unresponsive officials!"

They could just come out and say it:

Are you tired of dealing with overseas call centres, government departments who take 6 months to do anything and greedy capitalist Oil and Gas companies and Iron Ore tycoons.

Walter Mikac is a candidate. Amazing stuff.