Victorian State Election, 2018

[Mazda]

Is it possible to make educated guesses as to the make-up of the Legislative Council crossbench, or nah? I'd been reading that the Bernardi party were putting a load of resources into holding Carling-Jenkins' seat (until she quit), but it strikes me as a bit of a waste of money when the only way to win that fifth seat is to get 0.16% and cross your fingers for transfers.

[Mazda]

Over the next 7 weeks I shall be posting short guides for each and every one of the 88 electorates and 8 upper house seats.
I do hope that these guides shall provide unto you all a greater insight into Victorian politics, and the current election specifically.

Totally not regretting this commitment.

I, personally, would be happy with just the marginal seats and the Wentworth/Indi types where something interesting might happen.

[Mazda]

Tragic that Fiona Patten's party is no longer just called "Sex", and is now running with the very boring and Reddity name "Reason". That led to the very funny situation last election, when an atlas user had to censor the name of the party as if the word "sex" was an extreme expletive.

Who looks best in the micros in terms of preference deals?

Victoria elects the upper house through 8 seats each electing 5 members, rather than electing all 40 members from one statewide electorate.
Here's my assessment for each seat:
Eastern Metropolitan - Micro parties don't stand a chance.
Eastern Victoria - Shooters Fishers and Farmers currently hold a seat. They are probably the underdogs, as the Coalition looks likely to take their seat.
Northern Metropolitan - Fiona Patten looks to be in a tight contest with the Socialists for the final seat.
Northern Victoria - Shooters Fishers and Farmers currently hold a seat. They are probably the underdogs, as the Coalition looks likely to take their seat.
South Eastern Metropolitan - Micro parties don't stand a chance.
Southern Metropolitan - Micro parties don't stand a chance.
Western Metropolitan - Conservatives (Cory Bernadi's gang) currently hold a seat. They look likely to lose their seat to one of the majors.
Western Victoria - Local Jobs currently holds a seat. This seat is a mess, and could go to just about anybody other than Labor, who have two solid seats here.

Of course, this is all dependent on the preference tickets each party lodges.

The bolded is mistaken, btw. Rachel Carling-Jenkins was elected from the Democratic Labour Party (essentially as a random fluke of preferencing) and then defected to the Conservatives, so really it's a notional DLP seat. In any case, Carling-Jenkins left the Conservatives a few months ago and is standing as an Independent for the lower house. Any idea of incumbency for the Conservatives would be... nebulous at best.